Tom Froemming

Hector Santiago is a fascinating pitcher in that he defies all the advanced metrics. Taking into account all the best ERA predictors, it makes no sense that from 2012-15 he managed a 3.84 ERA, which is identical to Jon Lester's mark over that same span. A big part of what made the difference for Santiago was that he was as tough as nails when pitching with runners in scoring position. His performance with runners on slipped last season, along with the majority of his other stats. The sabermetric community appears to have taken the stance that Hector's luck finally ran out, but is it that simple? Does he not get any benefit of the doubt for being a solid starter for over 500 innings prior to last season?First impressions are important, but everyone deserves a second chance. Santiago got off to an absolutely rotten start with the Twins, but he ended the season pitching well, and there’s reason to believe he could in line for a bounce-back year. Over his final seven starts of 2016, Santiago posted a 3.19 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while limiting hitters to a .207/.294/.389 line. He also may stand to benefit from recent changes in hitting philosophy. Santiago may be the perfect antidote to the "elevate and celebrate" trend so many hitters seem to have (justifiably) gotten behind. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs recently wrote a pieceabout how pitchers could adjust to that trend. I don't want to give away the whole article (it's well worth your time), but in it Sullivan makes a pretty significant discovery: Homer rates are trending up, but only on pitches in the lower and middle third of the zone. The takeaway? "... conventional wisdom has said the best way to avoid a home run is to pitch down. In truth, at least now, it’s probably to pitch up. High fastballs are associated with homers, but they should really be associated with pop-ups and empty whiffs." It just so happens Santiago’s fastball is pretty nasty up in the zone. His career swinging strike percentage is 8.1%, but that number skyrockets on heaters in the upper third of the strike zone, according to data from BrooksBaseball. ​ To put that into perspective, neither Clayton Kershaw nor Stephen Strasburg have a single spot on the grid where their fastballs have a whiff rate of 20 percent, let alone three. Taking a look at the zone profile of slugging percentage against Santiago over his career, you can see even more evidence that staying up in the zone may be advantageous. With a defense led by Byron “Death To Flying Things” Buxton, the Twins are expected to be above average in the outfield. The infield? Not so much, particularly on the left side. Toss in the fact that BABIP is much higher on ground balls than fly balls and it seems to make a lot of sense for Santiago to try to continue his extreme fly ball ways. He led all qualified pitchers with a 50 percent fly ball rate last season. The Castro bump You can’t talk about Twins pitching these days without dropping the F Word: Framing. What did you think I was gonna say? With the arrival of pitch-presenting guru Jason Castro, the hope is the entire Twins staff will take a step forward, but it seems nobody wants to divvy out any of that hope to Hector. Well, Castro's strengths should actually be particularly well-suited to benefit Santiago. Here's a look at Santiago’s called strike percentage against right-handed hitters from FanGraphs: It's very difficult for lefty pitchers to get that up and away corner called as a strike against right-handed batters, but if anybody's going to help it's Jason Castro. Parker Hageman recently wrote an excellent piece on Castro's framing, er ... proper receiving. In that article, was this graphic showing where Castro excelled in getting strikes called: Castro is a wizard at getting outside strikes called on right-handed batters. Dallas Keuchel, a lefty who has thrown primarily to Castro over his career, gets that high and outside pitch to right-handers called strike called 61 percent of the time. Even a small improvement for Santiago up from 54 percent could go a long way toward him becoming a more effective pitcher. There's also evidence that Santiago has benefited from working with other good pitch framers in the past. Here is a breakdown of all the catchers he’s pitched to for at least 50 innings, sorted by ERA: A.J. Pierzynski: 2.84 ERA, .639 OPS Geovany Soto: 3.00 ERA, .653 OPS Tyler Flowers: 3.41 ERA, .692 OPS Hank Conger: 3.47 ERA, .660 OPS Chris Iannetta: 3.74 ERA, .727 OPS Carlos Perez: 4.26 ERA, .766 OPS The only one of those guys who rated out as a below-average framer during his time as a teammate of Santiago’s, according to StatCorner, is Perez (-6.6 RAA over last two seasons). Santiago had the least amount of success working with Perez. Hmm ... Infield flys rule Another part of the “secret sauce” that has made Santiago a deceptively good pitcher his his ability to induce popups. Santiago ranked ninth among qualified pitchers with a 13.5 IFFB percentage last season. If a pitcher can get a high percentage of strikeouts and infield fly balls, good things are going to happen. Here's a look at how Twins pitchers have fared in those categories over the past five seasons: Santiago: 20.5 K% + 12.1 IFFB% = 32.6 Hughes: 18.6 + 11.5 = 30.1 Santana: 19.3 + 9.5 = 28.8 Gibson: 15.6 + 10.0 = 25.6 What about the WBC? Santiago has been away from the team, pitching in a long relief role for Puerto Rico, but it would appear he's still in good shape to be ready for the regular season. Here's a summary of all his appearances this spring: Feb. 28: 12 pitches March 5: 24 pitches March 11: 42 pitches March 14: 52 pitches March 20: 63 pitches Santiago is scheduled to start for the Twins Sunday. I’d imagine he can crank it up to 80 or so pitches in that start before flirting with 100 in his final warmup game of the spring. Having pitchers in the WBC isn't ideal, but Hector looks like should be ready to go. Plus, I imagine he may have learned a thing or two working with Yadier Molina the past few weeks, so maybe that time away from the team turns out to be beneficial. So, he’s Cy Santiago? I’d love to wrap this up by making some bold prediction that Hector is going to be the ace of the staff and lead the Twins rotation back to respectability, but that’s probably not going to happen. Santiago’s command is spotty, his strikeout rate dropped to a career low last season and you can expect him to still give up his share of walks and home runs. But can we be optimistic about Santiago delivering a solid season? Something in line with his career averages prior to last year? I think so, yet most Twins fans are trying to find ways to run him out of town. There’s a reason Hector has made it this far. When he was drafted in the 30th round, he threw a fastball and … nope, that’s it. One pitch. Over time, he evolved a diverse enough pitch mix to become an effective major league starter. He’s been making adjustments his entire career. It seems unwise to count him out now, especially if you have any faith in Derek Falvey’s ability to foster a pitching staff. Santiago is also hitting free agency for the first time at the end of the year, so there’s all the incentive in the world for him to spin out a good season. Hector Santiago’s time with the Minnesota Twins didn’t get off on the right foot, but he deserves another chance. Click here to view the article

Thanks for these, they're great. I agree on the striking out the side thing. In my mind that's three-straight strikeouts, no other funny business.

I think a lot depends on what kind of a start they get off to. Bad start, they'll probably have a fire sale. Good start, they may try to make one last run with this group of players. What's interesting is the Twins will have a big impact on that start. They play 12 times before the Fourth of July.

Thank you all for adding to the discussion. Just a quick side note to any sailors out there, as far as I'm concerned you can drink as much as you like and spend your money how you see fit. No judgments coming from me ... These deals weren't all prospects, but the Twins kinda tried to do this with the Delmon Young, Alex Meyer and Trevor May trades. They were trading away young players before they hit free agency to get even younger players with more control. Good idea in theory, but those deals did not end up well. I'd also throw out the Josh Donaldson deal as an example of a team flipping a young player for multiple prospects. That has not worked out for the A's, though maybe Franklin Barreto turns out to be a star. This is a good point, but I would be really surprised if the Twins were able to attract both Falvey and Levine without assuring them they would have at least some payroll to work with in the future. It'll be a few years before all the young position players start making big money, if they don't add anything by the time Mauer's contract expires, the payroll is gonna be minuscule. That's just not going to look good after the team said having a new stadium will allow them to increase spending. Did they live up to their salary? No. But even at their reduced production levels, each of those pitchers would have been a massive upgrade to the Twins rotation. If you have one open spot, you realistically have like three. The really good teams stack up seven or eight legit starting options these days. Plus, even if that foursome pans out, I think you still need the old elite Twins defense and a great bullpen in order to be a good team. Maybe that's possible, but we're tallying up a lot of ifs. I actually don't think the org is trying to get younger and build. I think they're trying to win. If they were planning on giving the young guys a shot, Santiago would have been non-tendered, Belisle wouldn't have been signed, Dozier and especially Erv would have been traded by now and they would have gone with a higher upside arm than Haley in the Rule 5. Looking at all the quotes from Jim Pohlad and Derek Falvey, I don't think the Twins have any interest in a full-scale rebuild. If you're not going to rebuild, then you need to build ... build. Upbuild? You need to start adding better players.

Kinda a bummer about Jay, but this is the org trying to put him in the best position to be successful, gotta support that line of thinking. Seems likely he never lives up to the high pick, but you can't worry about stuff like that now, you just gotta do what you can to get the best version of Tyler Jay you can get. On the bright side, this has to mean we're closer to seeing him on the big club, so that's cool.

Yeah, those Zito, Cain and Lincecum deals really crippled that Giants franchise. They've had such a terrible run over the past decade Also, Verlander doesn't deserve to be lumped into that group. He had one bad year. Sabathia on his first deal was great, he gave the Yankees four excellent seasons. I get what you're saying, but there's crazy variance/injury risk for all starting pitchers.

You are correct, sir. But I have no way of editing it If all these guys actually hit the market next year, even if they all have great seasons I'd imagine somebody attractive would land into that $50-90M range just based off there being more supply than demand. Plus, it's possible some teams may look to "save" money next offseason in hopes of having the cash to throw at Harper, Machado or Kershaw after 2018 (assuming they all go to free agency that winter).

He can opt out following the 2018 season. Seems highly likely that he will, unless the Dodgers give him an extension.

If their window opens in 2019, why would it be such a terrible idea to sign a veteran pitcher before the start of the 2018 season? Sure, finding the next Jake Arrieta or Corey Kluber sounds great. It's not that easy. As ridiculous as the track record is of free agents, I think you're more likely to have things work out there than counting on just uncovering a diamond in the rough like that. They should be trying to find those guys, but not counting on it.

Wasn't trying to compare sports or their successes, was moreso just trying to outline the fact that to a general sports fan in the Twin Cities there are a lot of other options out there. That's especially true now that the Wolves at least interesting.

If you're only going to spend once you think you have a shot ... you may never get to the point where you think you have a shot. Also, it's not like you're not signing these guys to one-year deals, either. I think we'd all agree that the Twins should have a good window of competition while as all these young guys get into their prime and are still cheap. When the Cubs signed Jon Lester, they'd lost 101, 98 & 89 games the previous three seasons. They felt like at some point over the seven-year deal they would be contenders (think it turned out to be sooner than even they expected). Sometimes it pays off to get started in building up a team a year early, especially if there's a strong market. There's also an outside possibility Japanese ace Sho Otani gets posted next offseason, so it could be completely bonkers it terms of pitching talent (or everyone could sign extensions between then and now, who knows).

You're right, the majority of free agent contracts turn out poorly, and if the Twins are going to be a long-term success it'll be by development, not spending. But making a big investment on an established player would be just as much about the Twins trying to gain some credibility as anything else. A ton of casual fans think very strongly that the Pohlads are greedy, and they're frustrated with the lack of talent since Target Field opened. It's going to take a lot to win those fans back. I don't agree with that stance, but the Twins need to realize that perception is out there and do something about it.

The Gophers are (correction, were) in the Big Dance, the Wild are Stanley Cup contenders, even the Timberwolves are fighting for a playoff berth and 35,000 fans recently attended the first Major League Soccer game in Minnesota. The Twins, meanwhile, have averaged 94 losses the past six seasons, haven't won a single playoff game since 2004 and are expected to post another losing record in the season ahead. Opening Day is right around the corner, and they're essentially an afterthought in the Minnesota sports scene.Something drastic will need to be done in order to keep this team relevant. The front office turnover made some waves, but it was followed by a typically quiet offseason for the Twins. To be fair, with a free agent pitching class "headlined" by Rich Hill and Ivan Nova, this wasn't the winter to make a huge signing. Next offseason it'll be a different story, however, and the Twins should be in a great position to make a big splash. Can't imagine the Pohlad's approving a marquee signing? Well, they have very little money tied up beyond 2018, so there should be plenty of room in the budget. The only guys signed through the 2019 season are Phil Hughes ($13.2M), Jason Castro ($8M) and ByungHo Park ($3M). So without further ado, let's play my favorite game: Spend the Pohlad Family's Money! MLB Trade Rumors released its top 10 free agents for the 2017-18 off season this week, and the class looks to be flush with starting pitching. The list is topped by Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka. It's worth noting that both Cueto and Tanaka would have to opt out of their current contracts to become free agents, and it's possible between now and then one of those top guys signs an extension. None of those big four free agents has even turned 32 yet, with 28-year-old Tanaka being the youngest. Arrieta was a Cy Young winner in 2015 and both Darvish (2013) and Cueto (2014) have a runner-up finish for the award. I'm drooling just at the thought of any one of these guys in a Twins jersey, but each of them will command a hefty salary and all have some questions to answer in 2017. Arrieta looked human from June on last season, posting a 4.05 ERA, then had a 3.63 ERA in the playoffs. There are some durability concerns with both of the Japanese imports, but at least we know Darvish's UCL has been repaired. Tanaka had an elbow injury in 2014, but he elected to forego surgery. Seems to have worked out for him, but that arm could be a ticking time bomb. Cueto has been a workhorse, but his underwhelming run with Kansas City in 2015 may cause AL teams to shy away. But even beyond that impressive foursome, is yet another group of less tantalizing, yet still intriguing names. Chris Tillman, Micheal Pineda and Alex Cobb are among that next tier, and could dramatically improve their stock this season. Here's a quick look at the numbers: LAST THREE SEASONS Arrieta: 2.42 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 Darvish: 3.20 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 11.55 K/9, 2.94 BB/9 Cueto: 2.80 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 8.21 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 Tanaka: 3.12 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 8.18 K/9, 1.54 BB/9 Tillman: 3.99 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 6.68 K/9, 3.19 BB/9 Pineda: 4.10 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 9.20 K/9, 1.77 BB/9 Cobb: 3.54 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 7.88 K/9, 2.58 BB/9 Assuming the 2017 Twins put the worst season in franchise history behind them and look to be playoff contenders in 2018, which of these guys would you prefer? Would you pay top dollar, or wait out the market to see if there's a bargain? Or do you avoid free agency all together? Is it too early to be speculating on such things? Absolutely, but c'mon, let's have some fun. The guy I'd personally most like to see would be Darvish, and perhaps having Thad Levine around could be helpful in landing the strikeout machine. Levine was with the Rangers when they signed Darvish out of Japan, so he likely knows a thing or two about what makes the big righty tick. Even if the Twins can scrounge up the $150 or so million it'll cost to sign one of the top flight guys like Darvish, will they even want to come to Minnesota, or take less to play for a World Series contender? That's where Derek Falvey is going to have to earn his salary. Between now and next winter, he will need to get the franchise in good enough shape to be able to convincingly tell free agents "this team will be in the playoffs next season." The front office was apparently unable to deliver that message to Mike Napoli, who took less money and a shorter commitment to play for the Rangers. Continuing failure to attract free agents is going to result in a continuing failure to attract fan interest. Click here to view the article

Is there anybody in particular who is noticeably more physically mature from over the offseason?

Great stuff, love to hear it straight from the source and see the heat maps especially. Those show even good framers have their specific strengths and weaknesses (unless you're Buster Posey, that guy's incredible). Pretty insane how good Castro is on outside pitches to righties.

I couldn't resist, got the package last night. It's worth noting that $99 is the bottom line price, there are no additional taxes or service fees.

It's pretty miserable to root for a losing team, but there are some benefits. One of the big ones is it's really affordable to attend the games. My favorite memories of the Metrodome were from nights where I got a ticket, ate like a pig, never had to stand in a single line and in total spent $10 or less. Wins were tough to come by, but it was cheap entertainment.I was as excited as anybody for Target Field to open, but I only got to one game that first season, and sat literally in the last row of the upper deck. Ticket prices have been on the decline in recent years, but the Twins are breaking new ground (in the Target Field era, at least) with their newest ticket package: the Twins Spring Ballpark Pass. What you get A ticket to 30 games from the start of the season to the end of May. That covers five weekend series, so half of those tickets are for games either on Friday night or over the weekend. Memorial Day Monday (May 29) is also included. Probably the highest-profile series is when Boston comes to town over the weekend of May 5-7. There are seven weekday day games in the package, not ideal for those of us who work 9-to-5, but sometimes it's fun take a day off to spend at the ballpark. Along with the games, you're entitled to all the promotional items over that span as long as you show up early enough. That include a trapper hat, baseball cap, bobblehead (of a comic book movie character ... don't get me started), batting practice pullover and Brian Dozier T-Shirt (which will be really awkward if he gets traded by then). What you don't get Well, you don't technically get a ticket, in the traditional sense. You have to download the MLB Ballpark App and pull up your eTicket on your smartphone or tablet when you enter the stadium. I'm kinda old school, so I prefer a physical ticket, but I have used the Ballpark app at Target Field in the past, it's very slick and easy. Typically the one thing a ticket to a sporting event entitles you to a seat in the stadium. This deal does not, it's a "standing room only" deal. There are plenty of great places to stand and watch a game, or plenty of bars inside the stadium where you can sit, but coming off a 103-loss season means there should also be plenty of empty seats you can occupy. The ushers, especially in the top deck, are very lenient when the stadium is half empty. Another huge exclusion from this package is the home opener, which is Monday, April 3 against the Royals. So, is it a good deal? Yes, I think so, but the commenters (trolls) over at Michael Rand's article for the Star Tribune would disagree. Each ticket is going to cost you on average $3.30 per game. Sure, it's possible on some of those weekday games in particular you could score a ticket at that price on the secondary market, but I doubt that will be the case on the weekends. To look at it another way, here's the cheapest face value ticket you can get for these three higher-profile games: Sun., April 16 (first Sunday home game): $11 Sat. May 6 (hosting the Red Sox): $19 Mon. May 29 (Memorial Day): $15 So just those three games already gets you up to $45, nearly half of what you're paying for 30 games. Again, you'll likely be able to score tickets for those games cheaper than face value on Stub Hub, but I doubt they'll plummet to under $4. To put things further into perspective, here's a list of the cheapest packages on some of the Twins' other ticket offers: Pick 10 Plan: $220 Flex 20 Plan: $440 Saturday Plan: $383 (13 games) Sunday Plan: $306 (13 games) Those packages do also get you the season ticket holder perks (the 10% discount on concessions is really nice) and get you into better seats, but it's not like they're right behind home plate or anything. Yes, the Spring Ballpark Pass is a great deal, even if you aren't able to go to each and every game. If it's such a great deal, why would the team offer it? Well ... there's the whole 103-losses thing ... and April and May aren't always the best weather months in Minnesota. I'm not sure if this actually went in to the thought process behind the package, but there's also the fact that Minnesota sports fans may be too wrapped up in the Wild's playoff run this spring to be bothered about baseball. It's worth noting, however, that both the White Sox and Pirates are offering similar deals. The White Sox have their deal only for April, $39 for 11 games. While the Pirates deal also covers both April and May, it's more expensive ($159) and covers fewer games (26). So, what do you think of this package? Great deal, or silly marketing ploy? Click here to view the article

This is great stuff Seth! Excited for Matt Albanese to get back on the field. Seems like he could be a steal.

Really weird that they didn't make their annual big splash, but also didn't try to rebuild. How did they not get a better option for CF?

Since Hughes and Santiago have more than 5 years of MLB service time, they can refuse a demotion to the minors and elect to become free agents instead. Since, as Seth explained earlier this week, Santiago's contract isn't fully guaranteed until he's added to the 25-man roster, I'd think the team would just release him. Hughes, on the other hand, does have a guaranteed contract. I think "hiding" him on the DL to start the year would be a much more likely option the Twins would pursue if they're not interested in putting him in the Opening Day rotation.

By getting abused, I mean in terms of their usage, not getting abused by major league hitters. If you're down more than five runs early, sometimes you need a guy you can toss out there and basically say "we gotta get 2-3 innings out of you no matter what happens." A lot of bullpen guys throw multiple innings in the minors, so maybe I'm more nervous about over usage than I should be, but I'd rather risk Haley than one of those arms.

Midseason. I think the first two months of this season will be all about the new front office trying to get this team back to respectability and figuring out whether or not this team has any chance to be a serious contender in 2018. If they decide that's not realistic, I expect an epic fire sale and for Molitor to get canned (or resign). I'm not sure the pitching would initially be any better after a roster makeover, but it would certainly be a lot more interesting/young.

Pretty crazy that the Twins were able to go 9-10 against these guys last year. They only managed eight wins against KC & DET combined.