Tom Froemming

It’s important to keep in mind that every situation is different, but I still think there’s some value in looking back at how the Lynn contract came to be and compare that to where things are with this year’s market. I’m not saying any of this means the Twins are going to sign Kimbrel or Keuchel, but as long as they’re out there on the market it’s a possibility. One more disclaimer, sharing these reports that ultimately turned out to be untrue isn’t intended to be a jab at the reporters mentioned. They were simply relaying the information that was brought to them at that time from credible sources. Their reports were accurate to the situation in that snapshot in time. It’s clear things changed very quickly at some point, actually right around this time, last year. Here’s a look back at how things developed through the rumor mill. Feb. 28, 2018 Mike Berardino Tweets that the Twins, who are just a few weeks removed from a strong pursuit of Yu Darvish, are likely done adding. https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/968920573169553409 March 2, 2018 Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports Lynn’s asking price is north of $50 million, a mark no team is currently willing to entertain. https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/969602577498361864 March 4, 208 Bowden’s sources tell him the Twins are unlikely to sign Lynn or any of the other top starters available. https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/970452020795772930 March 6, 2018 Berardino writes that a person with direct knowledge said a $20 million commitment was a non-starter for Lynn. March 12, 2018 Lance Lynn signs a one-year, $12 million deal with the Twins. https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/972587332066074624 I’m sure there were additional reports I missed, but you get the drift. As we learned with Lynn last year, things can change incredibly quickly. That lesson can obviously apply to other teams, as well. Bowden Tweeted Friday evening that the Nationals and Braves were “not in” on Kimbrel according to multiple sources. That would certainly make it appear the Twins have a better chance at swooping in at the midnight hour to sign him, but (again) things can change very quickly. If Kimbrel’s expectations are lowered, I’d imagine there’s a point at which the Nats and Braves would be very much in on him. Dan Hayes, also of The Athletic, passed this along shortly after Bowden's Tweet: https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1104213155637530624 Wouldn’t say no 100 percent? So you’re telling me there’s a chance! But seriously, Dan would know. To his credit, he’s already done a lot of the leg work in trying to find a scenario in which Kimbrel could land in Minnesota. Back in late January, he wrote a thorough 1,300-word piece over at The Athletic on the topic. He’s been painting the possibility of Kimbrel signing with the Twins as a long shot, but he did end that article attached above with this sentence: “As unlikely as it seems, if all those market conditions fell their way, the Twins could just wind up with Kimbrel.” This past Monday, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune wrote that “it would take a major change of events for the Twins to sign either pitcher [Kimbrel or Keuchel] and bring him into a training camp that started three weeks ago.” And added this: “I got the sense that, unless Keuchel or Kimbrel were willing to sign a one-year contract, there's no deal here.” A one-year contract you say? Hmm … While it does not appear likely that either Kimbrel or Keuchel will be in a Twins uniform this season it also doesn’t really seem like either of those guys is likely to be in any particular team’s uniform this season. There doesn’t appear to be a front-runner or obvious destination for either of them at this point. We’ve seen this movie. Our guys came out on top with contract in hand when the dust settled. Things didn’t work out exactly as intended, which was unfortunate, but they have this move in their playbook. Is it possible there was something they learned from last year that they can apply and ensure a smoother transition into the regular season for a late signing? All I’m saying is anything’s possible. Here are a couple more links if you’re interested in some further reading. MLB Trade Rumors featured both of these pitchers Friday. Let’s Find A Landing Spot For Craig Kimbrel Historical Market Price Points For Dallas Keuchel

Sano made his major league debut in 2015. From that season forward, the Twins have actually been much better in games he doesn't start than they have been in games where he's in the lineup. This is especially true of the past two seasons. Check out the year-by-year numbers: 2018 28-42 (.400) in Sano starts 50-42 (.543) otherwise 2017 56-54 (.509) in Sano starts 29-23 (.558) otherwise 2016 43-71 (.377) in Sano starts 16-32 (.333) otherwise 2015 40-38 (.513) in Sano starts 43-41 (.512) otherwise The team was slightly better with Sano his first two seasons but has been significantly worse with him in the lineup over the most recent two years. By the way, the numbers above are all courtesy of Baseball-Reference, where you can find team record in appearances stats on a player's game logs. Add it all up and the Twins have been an even .500 without Sano in the starting lineup, 138-138. Meanwhile, they've been 167-205 (.449 winning percentage) in games he's started. Even with this data in mind, I still refuse to believe the Twins are better off without Sano, but I do think we can confidently say this 2019 team can win without him. They've done it in the past. What about how the Twins have fared with and without some of the other players over that same time frame? Check this out: Twins 2015-19 230-243 (.486) in Eddie Rosario starts 75-100 (.429) otherwise 138-142 (.493) in Byron Buxton starts 167-201 (.454) otherwise Twins since 2016-19 173-201 (.463) in Max Kepler starts 49-63 (.438) otherwise 131-134 (.494) in Jorge Polanco starts 91-130 (.412) otherwise Again, baseball is a team game, but these are some pretty interesting numbers to look at. The Twins have been significantly better with Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco in the starting lineup but significantly worse with Sano. Here's all that data crammed into a tidy table: So what does this actually mean? If you can't tell by now, even I'm having a hard time really committing to this data being truly telling. At the same time, I do feel as though this should ease the minds of any Twins fans who may feel like the sky is falling just because Miguel Sano is injured again.

Sano suffered a severe cut on his right foot in January. A teammate on his Dominican Winter League team slipped and spiked him him in the Achilles, requiring 12 stitches. On Wednesday night’s Twins Hot Stove Show with host Kris Atteberry, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli relayed this update on Sano: “Miguel is actually doing well,” Baldelli said. “His small wound is healed up, it’s getting to the point where we’re getting ready to revisit an appointment with the specialist just to get clearance to get him out there on the field. He’s been at the field, he’s been taking part in light activity until we get this clearance. It should be here in the next day or two and we should be able to progress. He’s ready to go, we’re really looking forward to seeing him actually take the field and I don’t think we’re far away from that.” While the stitches have been removed at this point and the cut is healing, it sounds like it'll be awhile yet before Sano hits the field. Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press reported Thursday that Sano is expected to remain in the boot for another week. The team seems concerned about the potential of the wound reopening. Sano appears to be in great shape — he’s still able to do cardio and weight training with his upper body — and he got some extra reps in at the plate during winter ball. So again, why rush? I love this course of action the Twins are taking so far. The worst-case scenario with an extremely safe timeline is that Sano doesn’t have enough time to get ready for Opening Day. So what? Put him on the Injured List and let him get up to speed with a rehab assignment in the minors. Stuff like this is exactly why you have guys like Marwin Gonzalez and Willians Astudillo around. It’s a lot more important to have a healthy Sano in the fold for the long haul than it is to get him into the Opening Day lineup. Rush Sano back and who knows what could happen. It could be as severe as the cut reopening or as simple as discomfort causing Sano to fall into some bad mechanical habits due to favoring that foot. Of course, the most difficult element to all this is there’s no way of knowing the perfect timeline for him. I’d bet if it was up to Miguel he’d already be out there, so you can’t really take him for his word on the recovery process. It’ll be a situation they’ll have to continue to monitor, but I’ve personally had enough of the Twins pushing Sano and Byron Buxton back from injuries. Or I guess allowing those two to push themselves back from injury, whichever the case may be. Remember when Sano shattered his leg in August of 2017 and played the next day? Even after the team identified the injury, they allowed him to return for three games in late September. That injury was bad enough he’s going to have to live with a titanium rod in his left shin for the rest of his life. If Sano and Buxton are as important to this organization as the front office makes them out to be then they’d better make sure to put them in the best positions possible to succeed. It appears that’s exactly what’s happening with Sano’s current injury. So far, at least. Rocco on Spring Games “I think they’re really helpful. These are spring training games, but I take them serious,” said Baldelli on this week’s Hot Stove Show. “I think about them like they’re real games. What would we do in the season during these situations? I think taking advantage of this month is very important for me and for the whole staff.” “You might not actually make the decision that you would make and actually put it into play, but I think talking about all the different scenarios and situations — what we want to do going forward and the decisions that I’d like to make once we hit March 28 — I think those are the discussions we have during the games and these are the discussions we have all day long over here.” Free Agent Signings Some of the biggest names left on the free agent market signed Thursday. The Blue Jays scooped up both Bud Norris and Clay Buchholz. Oh yeah, Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies too. Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel remain unsigned, however, and the Twins are still being loosely connected to Kimbrel. https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1101220841809940482 Spring Highlights I’ll leave you with some recent highlights from spring action. First up, Martin Perez’s first outing in a Twins uniform: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1099784152411455488 Here’s Brent Rooker’s blast from Wednesday afternoon: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1100868879855816709 Action from Stephen Gonsalves: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1100883660985778176 Some Lewis Thorpe: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1100892481506426880 And finally, a nice double from Luke Raley: https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1101276744148008961

So this spring, we will set out to identify those players who have the most to gain from posting impressive stat lines and eventually crown one of them Sire of Fort Myers. I know what some of you are thinking, “really, are we that desperate for baseball we’re going to keep an eye on a bunch of has-beens and never-beens?” Well first off, yes. It’s February and the snow piled around my house is taller than Michael Pineda, so I am that desperate for baseball. Secondly, how dare you speak ill of Sire Ryan LaMarre, he who smote the Clevelanders in the Battle of Puerto Rico. Lastly, this is like a really, really serious honor, OK? Show some respect. Last year was really the perfect time to debut this idea. Coming into spring, who could have seen LaMarre heading north with the Twins? Here’s part of what I wrote in my preview last year: “But, just to be clear, these guys' chances of breaking camp with the Twins are anywhere from remote to downright unthinkable.” He did it. Ryan LaMarre dreamed the impossible dream and made the team. That was crazy. So I’m not ruling anything out this time around. Who are the top contenders for this year’s crown? Let's go over who’s eligible first. Anyone who’s not on the 40-man roster is eligible, as well as the few players who are on the 40 man but haven’t made their MLB debut. So before anybody asks, no, Willians Astudillo (a 2018 Sire of Fort Myers honorable mention) is not eligible this year. Just a reminder, this isn't about identifying the player most likely to make the team, it's simply honoring the player who had the most impressive spring training performance. Without further ado, here’s who I think are the top 10 contenders for 2019 Sire of Fort Myers, in alphabetical order: Randy Cesar, 24, 3B/1B This guy seems interesting. Cesar hit .296/.348/.428 (.777 OPS) for Houston’s Double-A team and had a 42-game hitting streak last year. His BABIP dropped from an insane .444 through his first 64 games (which coincided with the end of that impressive streak) to just .277 over his final 52 games. So maybe his success was a complete mirage, but he’s a fun guy to bring in on a minor league deal. Cesar split time between third base and first base last year. Tim Collins, 29, LHP Remember this guy? Collins was a long-time member of the Royals’ bullpen before he had to suffer through not one but two Tommy John surgeries. He worked his way back to the big leagues for the first time since 2014, pitching to a 4.37 ERA in 22 2/3 innings with the Nationals last year. His fastball velocity was pretty much back to where it was when he was with Kansas City, averaging 92.5 mph. Chase De Jong, 25, RHP The Twins removed De Jong from the 40-man roster earlier this offseason, but he cleared waivers. Acquired in the trade that sent Zach Duke to Seattle, De Jong barely hits 90 mph but manages to induce a fair amount of weak contact. He had a 3.57 ERA in 17 2/3 innings with the Twins, 3.20 ERA in 39 1/3 innings with Rochester and a 3.80 mark in 120 2/3 innings with the Mariners’ Double-A team. Lucas Duda, 33, 1B Duda is hands down the favorite this year. He boasts a career 118 OPS+ and has hit 27 or more home runs three times in the big leagues. They’re trending in two different directions, but Duda’s resume is really even more impressive than that of projected starting first baseman C.J. Cron. The past few years have not been kind to one-dimensional players such as Duda. The fact he had to settle on a minor league deal illustrates that, but he still hit .264/.336/.477 (813 OPS) against right-handers last season. Ryan Eades, 27, RHP Eades was drafted in the second round in 2013 but his prospect shine faded fairly quickly. Last year was his second season pitching primarily out of the bullpen. Something clicked. After averaging 6.7 K/9 previously, Eades posted a 10.4 K/9 in 2018. He finished on a particularly high note, giving up just five earned runs over his final 30 1/3 innings (0.89 ERA) while holding opposing hitters to a .198/.244/.225 line, earning a promotion to Rochester in the process. Nick Gordon, 23, SS/2B Probably the most recognizable name on this list to Twins fans, Gordon’s stock dropped some after an uninspiring first showing in Triple A. In 164 games at Double A, however, Gordon hit .285/.350/.436 (.787 OPS) with 39 doubles, 11 triples and 14 home runs. He also stole 20 bases during his time in Chattanooga, had 86 RBIs and scored 102 runs. Even in a down season, Gordon posted his best OPS against left-handed pitching (.636) since his draft year. Mike Morin, 27, RHP Morin was a mainstay in the Angels’ bullpen from 2014-17, pitching to a 4.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 3.42 K:BB ratio over 177 appearances. He spent the majority of last season with Seattle’s Triple-A team, where he had a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, though he also pitched in three games for the Mariners. Morin’s fastball sits 91.5 mph but he mixes in a changeup about a third of the time and relies on his slider for roughly a quarter of his pitches. I think he’ll get plenty of looks this spring, making him a strong contender for the crown. Morin was born in Andover but grew up in Kansas. Jake Reed, 26, RHP FREE REED! This guy has a 1.92 ERA in 89 career Triple-A innings. Considering some of the other guys the Twins have trotted out in their bullpen the past few years it’s pretty incredible he hasn’t had an opportunity to make his debut. The 26-year-old right-hander struck out 50 batters in 47 2/3 innings for Rochester last year. In 246 2/3 career innings in the minor leagues, Reed has surrendered just seven home runs. He’s faced 576 right-handed hitters and they’ve taken him deep just four times. That’s crazy. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1099458324037332992 Lewis Thorpe, 23, LHP The 2018 season was a great building block for Thorpe. He reached a career high 129 2/3 innings, excelling in his first regular time in Double-A to the point where he earned a late-season promotion up to Rochester. Altogether, the Aussie lefty had a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while averaging 10.9 K/9 against just 2.5 BB/9. That works out to an outstanding 4.36 K:BB ratio. The Twins have, understandably, been a little careful with him, but I wonder if they may loosen the reins a bit this year. LaMonte Wade, 25, OF It was nowhere near the level of Gordon’s drop off, but Wade slumped some in his first shot in Triple-A too. It was the first time he had more strikeouts than walks, which is pretty incredible in today’s age. But allow me to make the same kind of presentation we did with Gordon. In 163 career games in Double-A, Wade hit .294/.396/.418 (.815) with 14 home runs, 102 walks and just 91 strikeouts. He scored 104 times and drove in 94. He’s played all over the outfield, but seems to have settled in as a left fielder. Here are the other non-roster invitees I didn’t include in the top 10: Preston Guilmet, Ryne Harper, Justin Nicolino, Brian Navarreto, Ben Rortvedt, Wynston Sawyer, Tomas Telis, Luis Arraez, Randy Cesar, Royce Lewis, Adam Rosales, Alex Kirilloff, Luke Raley and Brent Rooker. Just a couple quick notes on those included on that list above: I’d expect Lewis and Kirilloff to be among the first cuts. It wouldn’t surprise me if Arraez turned some heads, he just missed my top 10. Harper was another guy who just missed, he had an insane 8.60 K:BB ratio down on the farm for the Twins last year (65 IP, 86 K, 10 BB). Guilmet's another guy who could've very easliy been named in the top 10. He has some ugly MLB numbers but a 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 in 265 career innings at Triple A. Rosales is 35 now, but he’s coming off of somewhat of a power outburst, as he popped 18 home runs for Cleveland’s Triple-A team last year. There will be other minor leaguers who work their way in from time to time, especially on the days where the Twins have split squad games on the schedule, but I wouldn’t anticipate them getting enough playing time to be in contention for this most prestigious honor. So what do you think? I’ve tabbed Duda as the favorite among hitters and Morin among pitchers. Will anybody give either of those guys a run for their money?

Here’s hoping anyone who ends up converting takes quickly to the role. They won’t exactly be joining the most experienced bullpen out there. Take a look at the 40-man roster, there’s an alarming lack of arms with prior MLB experience pitching out of the bullpen. Here’s the entire list of pitchers with 10 or more career relief appearances in the majors: Addison Reed (465 games in relief) Blake Parker (229) Taylor Rogers (198) Trevor Hildenberger (110) Trevor May (100) Tyler Duffey (74) Matt Magill (45) Gabriel Moya (36) Also, bullpen coach Jeremy Hefner is in his first season. As is pitching coach Wes Johnson. And manager Rocco Baldelli too. What could go wrong? I’m not saying this current bullpen is completely doomed, but the floor is very low. If guys like Reed and Hildy can bounce back, as John wrote about earlier today, and Romero can take to his new role, this could be a pretty strong unit. On the other hand, just imagine the impact a Taylor Rogers injury would have. You can’t expect everything to go your way. If there was ever a team where some Fernando Rodney or Zach Duke types made sense, this would be it. There was a time when giving some fresh faces looks in relief would have made sense, but that seems like a poor plan to open a season in which you hope to compete. The perfect opportunity for guys to get their feet wet would have been at the end of last season. Andrew Vasquez got in there for a whopping five innings, that was nice, but this was also a team that dumped 23 2/3 innings into Matt Belisle. But here we are, it is what it is. That lack of established relievers also means even the bullpen reinforcements appear to be guys who are going to have to adjust to a new role. Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves or even Lewis Thorpe represent the next in line, but some of those guys will need to stay stretched out in order to serve as rotation depth. Of course, they can always make changes to the 40-man roster, but the guys next in line either have never pitched in the majors (Jake Reed, Ryan Eades) or haven’t been effective for some time (Tim Collins, Mike Morin). Just a quick note on the opener, I don’t think we see the Twins do much with it in 2019 unless things go very poorly. Even if it’s something they implement on a regular basis, you still need a lot of traditional relievers in your bullpen anyway. I take a look at the current construction of this pitching staff and see far from an ideal situation to expect a rookie coaching staff to successfully navigate. My original intention of this article was going to try to make sense of what the front office is thinking in terms of the bullpen, similar to the article I wrote about their additions to the lineup, but I can't do it. There’s no way we’re looking at the final picture. No way. I don’t have any inside information, this is all just a hunch, but I cannot imagine the Twins enter the regular season with the bullpen as it’s currently constructed. Among the top free agents still available (STILL!?!?!?) are Craig Kimbrel, Bud Norris, Ryan Madson, Adam Warren and Nick Vincent. Kimbrel is obviously the marquee name of that bunch, but I believe any one of those five guys could help serve as a stabilizing influence for this Twins pen. There are also always trades. The Twins have the prospects to give up, but I’m not sure if most non-contending teams would be motivated to make a move now or rather hold on until the trade deadline. I’ve been drooling over the idea of the Twins nabbing Mychal Givens from the hapless Orioles, though I’m not sure if there’d be any interest from either side. But the Twins will do something. I mean, they have to ... right? Right?