Tom Froemming

His name is said in the video a couple times, probably the clearest right at about the 7:00 mark, but if I was to try and type it out phonetically I guess it'd be something like Jo-ahn Dur-ahn. How about Jhoan "Hungry Wolf" Duran? That's a pretty badass nickname.

Thanks for bringing this up. Another huge selling point to this year's Prospect Handbook is that it includes an accurate height and weight on each player. What's listed on those MiLB or B-Ref profiles is comically outdated, sometimes multiple years old. I wouldn't be surprised if that 175 listing is from when he originally signed back in 2015. For example, Brusdar Graterol is still listed as 6-1, 180 on those sites. No way, the guy looks like a linebacker now.

As a way to both look back at a great minor league season and celebrate the release of the 2019 Twins Prospect Handbook, I’m going to be putting together a series of features that should help bring some of the prospects to life. First up is a new name to the system, Jhoan Duran. The 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook is available in paperback for $17.99 or as an eBook for $12.99.In last year’s Prospect Spotlight Series, I took a deeper statistical look into a handful of guys I was higher on than most. Here are links to those articles if you’re interested in looking back: Travis Blankenhorn, Ben Rortvedt, Lachlan Wells, Tom Hackimer and Zander Wiel. Instead of focusing on “my guys” this year, I’m going to pass along some of the really fun stuff I saw in 2018 from Twins prospects. So this will be sort of a show-and-tell version of the Prospect Spotlight Series. First up on the list is Jhoan Duran. We’re going to look back at his impressive performance for the Cedar Rapids Kernels on Aug. 24. I apologize for the lo-fi, bootleg video quality, it was the best I could do. Wow. I don’t envy those hitters. Duran pitched 6 2/3 innings of one-hit ball and racked up 10 strikeouts in that start. Of his 97 pitches, 62 went for strikes (63.9%) and he induced an impressive 19 swinging strikes (19.6%). That was certainly a performance that gets you dreaming of Duran someday dealing on the Target Field mound. When the Twins acquired Duran, he had a 4.73 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 15 starts. I'll admit, that didn't exactly capture my imagination. Throw in the fact that he was acquired in the deal that sent away Eduardo Escobar, a guy who had been among my favorite Twins for years, and I was struggling to get very excited at the time. I'm not sure if the Twins tweaked anything or if the trade was just a wake-up call, but Duran looked like a new man after joining the Twins. In his six regular season starts with Cedar Rapids, Duran posted a 2.00 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 4.40 K:BB ratio. He added six innings of one run ball and 10 more strikeouts in his lone postseason start for the Kernels. The funny thing about Duran is that, among the Prospect Handbook contributors, I actually have him ranked the lowest. That’s more of an indication of how tight everything gets after the top three than how I feel specifically about Duran. I think Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Brusdar Graterol are clearly in a top tier, but then there are another 10-15 guys who are all basically in the same tier. Where exactly did everybody have him ranked? You’ll have to buy the book to find out We had a ton of fun putting the Prospect Handbook together and we’re really excited for people to read it. Recognizing these minor league players for their efforts and ability is a big motivating factor in the project, so we would love for you to pick up a copy. Duran is just one of more than 160 players featured in the book. He’s quickly becoming a notable name, but as fun as prospect lists are, guys emerge from relative obscurity to reach the major leagues on a regular basis. Andrew Vasquez was a 32nd-round pick who never garnered prospect list love, but he earned his way all the way to the Major Leagues last season, becoming the first member of the Twins’ 2015 Draft class to arrive in Minnesota. Who’s going to be the next homegrown Twins talent to emerge? That’s a great question. The only thing I can say for certain is he’s somewhere in the pages of this year's handbook. Click here for more information on the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. Click here to view the article

I'd say Denny Hocking should be next, but Mauer getting 7 retired works as a two birds, one stone situation

Good stuff here, I hadn't really considered this. One thing I'd like to add on Gibby is he became the team's union rep after Dozier was traded. He's a leader in that clubhouse. I have to imagine other players take note of how guys like that are treated, and continuity among your clubhouse leaders could have some value. How much does that actually matter? I don't know, tough to say, but I do think it is something to consider. With no Joe, no Dozier, no Escobar and an entirely new coaching staff, there's a lot of relationship building to do. Maybe Gibson can be of value in that area.

Just something I found interesting about these 2018 stat lines: Player A 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.69 FIP, 3.87 DRA Player B 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 3.54 FIP, 3.48 DRA Player C 2.01 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.47 FIP, 3.74 DRA Player D 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 4.13 FIP, 4.21 DRA A = Dallas Keuchel B = Trevor Cahill C = Clay Buchholz D = Kyle Gibson There's a big difference in innings, as Keuchel (204 2/3) and Gibson (196 2/3) got a lot more work than Cahill (110) and Buchholz (98 1/3), but still.

David Schoenfield of ESPN put together a nice breakdown of who’s left on the starting pitching market. He noted that the Twins may gamble on Clay Buchholz and/or Drew Pomeranz. I wrote about Pomeranz in my search for the next Nathan Eovaldi here at Twins Daily a couple weeks ago, but what about Buchholz? Continue reading for more info on Buchholz plus a number of other news & notes items in this edition of the Rundown.Clay Buchholz had a nice 2.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 3.68 K:BB ratio for the Diamondbacks last year. That's pretty awesome, right? This issue is he pitched just 98 1/3 innings in 2018. In fact, Buchholz only logged 7 1/3 innings the prior year, 139 1/3 in 2016 and 113 1/3 in 2015. So this is not a guy you’d want to bank on for innings. Still, Buchholz has a 3.69 ERA and 3.86 FIP over the previous four seasons. That puts him 36th in ERA among the 137 pitchers who've thrown 350 innings over the past four years, right between Ervin Santana (3.68 ERA) and Lance Lynn (3.70 ERA). In that same sample, Buchholz has the lowest HR:FB ratio (9.2%) of any pitcher. Buchholz missed nearly all of the 2017 season due to a partial tear of his right flexor in his forearm. Arizona was forced to shut him down in mid September this year due to a strained flexor, so that's a pretty big red flag for the 34-year-old. I would certainly prefer Drew Pomeranz, who only is 30, left-handed and has been more durable, but Buchholz is another interesting buy-low, bounce back option if the Twins are inclined to go that route. Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press reported that the Twins planned on being creative with their pitching staff again in 2019. Derek Falvey is quoted in the piece as saying “I think we are seeing across baseball a clear trend toward utilizing guys in a different way out of a bullpen. Some are clearly backend guys, some are short-stint types and there is this multi-inning role, whatever you call it. That could be really valuable to us.” Also included in that piece is some more steam on Fernando Romero potentially joining the bullpen. Romero had a respectable Major League debut last season, pitching to a 4.69 ERA in 55 2/3 innings with the Twins, but he did get knocked around a little. He averaged 9.7 H/9 and his WHIP was 1.42. Romero made his final nine appearances of the season with Rochester, posting a 4.76 ERA with an uncharacteristically low 6.0 K/9 rate over that span. It’s fair to note that along with his MLB debut, Romero also made his Triple-A debut in 2018, so something of an adjustment period was probably to be expected. Hitters at those levels make a pitcher work much harder. They don’t chase bad pitches like hitters in the lower levels. Romero’s never been much of an innings eater over his career, so that could also factor in when considering his future role. In his Winter Meetings wrap-up, MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park noted that the Twins are still in search of pitching. Included in that piece is this quote from Thad Levine: "We're trying to make sound business decisions, and there's a lot of supply out there. There's a lot of players on the marketplace still. So we've got a lot of options we can continue to pursue." Craig Edwards of FanGraphs observed that last year’s reliever market seems to have carried over. Jeurys Familia signed with the Mets for three years and $30 million while the Dodgers signed Joe Kelly to a three-year, $25 million deal. As Edwards notes, that continues the trend of relievers fetching multi-year deals between $7 and $10 million per season. The Twins waited out the market last year, landing Addison Reed on a two-year deal worth $16.5 million on Jan. 15. Reed had a mysterious dip in velocity that coincided by a streak of poor performances, but I’m not so sure there’s any lessons to be learned from that signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if they have extended multiple two-year offers to relievers and are just waiting for those guys to come down from seeking a third year. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic asked “where are the Twins?” in a recent column for The Athletic. He doesn’t offer up an answer to that question, but Rosenthal did call the Twins “a team to watch in the days and weeks ahead.” Unlike the Twins, Cleveland was active at the Winter Meetings. But were they buyers or sellers? It’s kinda hard to say. The Indians traded Yonder Alonso to the White Sox for minor league pitcher Alex Call and then were involved in a complicated three-way trade with the Rays and (who else?) Mariners. Cleveland gave up Edwin Encarnacion, Yandy Diaz and Cole Sulser to acquire Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers. There was also a lot of chatter around possible Cory Kluber and Trevor Bauer trades, but those two are still with the Indians, at least for now. Speaking of the White Sox, they're meeting with Manny Machado today, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. They may have gained an advantage in acquiring Alonso from Cleveland. He's Machado's brother-in-law File this one under better late than never: A commemorative home plate has been installed at U.S. Bank Stadium in celebration of the Twins’ glory days at the Metrodome. It’s located approximately where the dish was in the old dome, which is great because that also means it’s on the main concourse of the new stadium, accessible to all fans. Will Leitch took a look at every team’s current, active franchise icon for MLB.com. The Twins? Jose Berrios. Man, that seems weird. Click here to view the article

Seth has a different set of standards on who qualifies for the handbook. Basically, anybody who's been around enough to reach minor league free agency (seven seasons on the farm) doesn't get included. So that's guys like Astudillo, Michael Reed, Wynston Sawyer and Ryne Harper. I'm sure there's a few more I'm forgetting.

The Rule 5 Draft is weird. Bad systems are loaded with older minor leaguers who are eligible. Two of those guys taken from San Francisco's system were 28-years-old and the other one they just signed as a minor league free agent in November. Keep in mind that it's not like the Tyler Jays and Jake Reeds of the world were available in the minor league phase of the draft. There's something like an additional 35 players who get protected in that phase, I'm sure Jay and Reed were among them for the Twins (though the lists are not made public).

I'm actually rooting for somebody to take Jake Reed. He deserves a shot.

But when are you ever going to pinch hit Tyler Austin and then leave him in the game? Are you letting him play right field in a close game? I'm not. The only other option would be a double switch to put him at first, meaning you lose both the guy you're pinch hitting for plus whoever is playing 1B from the game. There'd be no reason to do that.

Based on the fact that Nelson Cruz has actually been a really good Major League hitter. Based on the fact that you can't just assume two guys would be able to stay sharp being platooned. Based on the fact that we're dealing with tiny samples of Austin and Cave and a mammoth amount of data on Cruz. Austin and Cave are every bit as likely to get worse than they are to get better. Some guys do regress once there's a book out on them. Neither of them take good at bats, which is a big cause for concern. In your scenario, Cave plays the majority of the time. I'm worried he's going to be Danny Santana 2.0. Considering his walk and strikeout rate, nobody should be giving Cave anything to hit. If pitchers adjust and that .363 BABIP drops, you're not left with much upside. That was the 10th-highest BABIP among hitters with at least 300 PAs, fourth among left-handed hitters. His HR/FB ratio was also nearly double league average. His 2018 production is not sustainable. There are fewer concerns about Austin's balls in play, but simply getting the bat on the ball is a big issue for him too. And how useful is a platoon bat against lefties? Max Kepler led the team in plate appearances last season, is a lefty and still only racked up 167 plate appearances against southpaws last season.

Very, very sure.

Some food for thought: 2018 ERA 3.62 Gibson 3.76 Cahill 3.84 Berrios 4.49 Odorizzi 2018 FIP 3.54 Cahill 3.90 Berrios 4.13 Gibson 4.20 Odorizzi 2018 WHIP 1.14 Berrios 1.19 Cahill 1.30 Gibson 1.34 Odorizzi 2018 K:BB 3.31 Berrios 2.44 Cahill 2.31 Odorizzi 2.27 Gibson The other top FA SPs available are Keuchel (who has a qualifying offer), Happ, Kikuchi (though he sounds more interested in playing on the west coast), Morton (though he sounds more interested in either staying in Houston or playing on the east coast), Gio, Anibal and Matt Harvey. I think Cahill represents a solid option in that group in terms of performance and availability. They obviously also have the option of trying to trade for a pitcher, but you gotta give something to get something. If the Twins are intent on treating 2019 as an evaluation year, I can't imagine they're motivated to trade away any prospects. We'll see.

I wouldn't expect any team to carry a four-man bench in 2019 for long. Might work in the early goings with all the extra off days, but there will come a time when you need that extra pitcher. With Twins having a first-time manager, first-time MLB pitching coach and first-time bullpen coach I'd think it'd be a wise idea to give them that extra arm for wiggle room.

FanCred's Jon Heyman reported Monday that the Twins were in the mix for Nelson Cruz. New Twins beat writer for MLB.com Do-Hyoung Park confirmed and added that there was mutual interest between Cruz and the Twins. Darren Wolfson of KSTP also revealed that the Twins were kicking the tires on Joakim Soria, Trevor Cahill and Wilson Ramos. So that's four names we've got to dissect, let's get into it.Nelson Cruz? But isn't he, like, really old? This was probably what Seattle Mariners fans were asking when their team signed him four years ago. Cruz is 38 now, but he's somehow been able to avoid a decline and was still among the best power hitters in baseball last season. Cruz hit .256/.342/.509 (.850 OPS) with 37 home runs for Seattle last season, but that was a 74-point drop in his OPS from the prior year. Why? Well, it definitely doesn't have anything to do with how hard he hit the ball. Cruz led the league in average exit velocity (minimum 300 batted ball events) at 93.9 mph and was fourth in hard hit % at 51.3, per Baseball Savant. His hard hit rate per FanGraphs was 42.3 percent, a career high. His BABIP, however, was just .264, the 22nd-lowest mark among qualified hitters. Cruz has a career .305 BABIP. Download attachment: CruzExitVelo3.png The man they call Boomstick has also hit for power in Safeco, no easy task, but his .295/.372/.527 (.900) line on the road was even more impressive last year. He's also a .325/.355/.667 (1.022 OPS) hitter in 124 career plate appearances at Target Field. Cruz had a 132 DRC+ last season according to Baseball Prospectus. That ranks 24th among all hitters with at least 400 PAs. Eddie Rosario led the Twins with a 113 DRC+ last season. No matter the track record, his age has to be a concern, but I'm willing to believe that Cruz can be a well above average middle of the lineup hitter for a couple more years. Only eight players hit more home runs than Cruz last season, and he still isn't having to completely sell out for that power. His strikeout rate (20.6) was comfortably below league average (22.3). MLB Trade Rumors actually predicted the Twins would sign Cruz, putting the expected contract at two years, $30 million. That's probably the cheapest a hitter of this caliber is going to be acquired. The Twins aren't going to spend on Bryce Harper or Manny Machado and they didn't trade for Paul Goldschmidt or Robinson Cano. You get left with a 38-year-old (and that's if you're lucky). I'd expect a Cruz signing would almost certainly result in the end of Tyler Austin's stay in Minnesota. It would be awfully difficult to fit Cruz, C.J. Cron and Austin (who is out of options) all on the same 25-man roster. Trevor Cahill had a strong season in his second stay with the A's, pitching to a 3.76 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but he was much better at home than on the road. In fact, Cahill has been especially comfortable at the Oakland Coliseum over his career. In 383 innings in Oakland, Cahill has a 3.01 ERA. In his other 960 1/3 innings, he has a 4.50 ERA. But one skill that should translate anywhere is his ability to induce ground balls. Among the pitchers to log 190 innings over the past two seasons (138), Cahill's 54.4 GB% ranked eighth. He also had a career-high 11.7 swinging strike rate, which ranks 33rd among the 140 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2018. Kyle Gibson was at 11.5 and Jose Berrios 11.3. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-12-10 at 8.25.33 PM.png Those ballpark splits worry me, but I still think Cahill could be a boost to the 2019 Twins rotation. MLB Trade Rumors projected him to fetch a two year, $22 million deal. I mentioned in a rundown last week how I felt Joakim Soria was the one reliever who I felt best fit with the Twins in terms of both need and expected salary. He's had a few slip ups, but in terms of bullpen arms he's been pretty reliable over his career. Both his walk rate and strikeout rate have been trending the right direction each of the past three seasons. Among the pitchers to log 60 innings in 2018 (273), Soria's 4.69 K:BB ratio was tied with Taylor Rogers for 27th place. I like the idea of the Twins signing Soria, who has 220 career saves, to be the closer. He performed nicely in that role for the White Sox last season before being traded over to Milwaukee. He's 34-years-old, so fastball velocity will be a concern, but he did buck a recent trend of losing velo as the season progressed last year. Download attachment: SoriaVelo.jpeg Soria's expected contract is two years, $18 million, per MLB Trade Rumors. The Twins would need to further address the bullpen, in my opinion, but this would be a start. Finally, Wilson Ramos ... we know all too well this guy has been good when healthy. The former Twins prospect cranked it up a notch last year, hitting .306/.358/.487 (.845) for the Rays and Phillies. Catchers are so difficult to find, so I have a hard time believing Ramos, 31, is going to be available at a discount. MLB Trade Rumors had him signing for three years and $36 million. It's hard to imagine the Twins making that kind of a commitment to a catcher, given they have Jason Castro and Mitch Garver (and Willians Astudillo), but who knows? Castro is only under contract for one more season and, as Nick pointed out last week, Garver has some injury concerns right now. So I suppose it could happen. OK, now it's your turn. What do you think about these guys? Click here to view the article

I've had a hard time consolidating my feelings on the tone of this offseason, but you did a really nice job here Nick. It's hard to dispute the fact that the both overall direction and these individual moves seem smart for the most part. The issue is the current state of this division screams DO SOMETHING STUPID!!! When is the AL Central, top to bottom, going to be this bad again? The Twins could end up building a consistent competitor that wins 85-90 games each season only to see another club build a super team that's winning 95-100 games every year. Then what? The division is there for the taking in 2019. We don't know whether that will be the case in 2020 and beyond. It's depressing to hear the Twins sound so unmotivated to strike in what's presenting itself as a golden opportunity. Sometimes what's smart is actually stupid. They don't give out trophies at the end of the year to the organization that makes the smartest moves or gets the best return on their investments.

He's listed on the 40 man at the team's site, and I count 40 guys on there. Did you forget to subtract Grossman?

Wrong. He's on the 40 man, it's a split major league contract, meaning he'll make less money during the time he's in the minors than he will during the time he's in the majors.

This one doesn't make any sense to me. I'd waaaay rather just have a guy like Gregorio Petit on a minors deal and one more open spot on the 40-man roster.

Jonathan Schoop should be like your safety school equivalent to this year's 2B free agent market. He's the guy you have in your back pocket just in case you get rejected by everyone else above him. I'm not necessarily saying this is a bad signing, but I will say that I don't think Schoop fits in real well with the rest of the offense. More than anything, I'm just disappointed (barring something unforeseen) this means the Twins won't be getting Marwin, Lowrie or LeMahieu, all of whom I'd prefer over Schoop. I might have even preferred Asdrubal Cabrera.

The Twins appear to have found their second baseman. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Twins are finalizing a one-year deal with recently non-tendered second baseman Jonathan Schoop. The deal will be worth $7.5 million, plus incentives.Schoop appeared to have a breakout 2017 season with the Orioles. He hit .293/.338/.503 (.841) with 32 home runs, 105 RBIs and 92 runs scored that season. He didn't just take a step back in 2018, he had his worst season since his rookie year. Schoop continued to hit for some power during his 85 games with Baltimore, slugging .447, but had a dreadful .273 on-base percentage. He was traded to Milwaukee at the deadline and really fell apart from there, posting a .577 OPS in 46 games with the Brewers. Schoop was projected to make somewhere around $10 million through the arbitration process, so it was understandable that the Brewers would go in a different direction. Still, this is a 27-year-old who is just a season removed from a 3.8 WAR performance, per FanGraphs. One of the big talking points here at Twins Daily has centered around the team's need to address the loss of on-base percentage with the departures of Joe Mauer and Robbie Grossman. Schoop isn't going to do much to ease those concerns. Over his six-year career, Schoop has a .294 OBP and has walked in just 3.7 percent of his plate appearances. That also comes with a 22.6 K%. In the field, Schoop's range is somewhere around average for a Major League second baseman, but he has a cannon of an arm. The Twins also came to an agreement with fellow infielder Ronald Torreyes. Click here to view the article