Tom Froemming

Lots of good discussions on both sides. Yes, the Twins definitely need a middle infielder and relief help. Extra starting pitching is always nice too. Trading for Santana shouldn't mean you can't address those issues. If for some reason it would, then I agree, it would be more important to focus on those spots. Just a couple of other quick notes on Santana, first, his BABIP was actually the absolute lowest among all qualified hitters last season. His average exit velocity was in the top 40 percent of the league and his hard hit % was in the top 35 percent, so there's no real reason to expect his BABIP to remain that painfully low. On his defense/athleticism, the Phillies trusted him enough to make 16 starts at third base last year. It's a tiny sample, but Santana actually had a better UZR/150 over there than Eduardo Escobar. In fact, among the 80 players to log 100 innings at 3B, Santana ranked 39th in UZR/150.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic wondered if the Twins might trade Max Kepler to address some other areas of need. It’s a good piece, as Dan hashes out all the reasons to believe the best is yet to come for Max, but he also writes that the Twins would find the possible returns enticing. There is Aaron Hicks-like disaster potential for the Twins in any deal that sends Kepler away, but might it be worth it?The cold, hard reality is Kepler has posted below average offensive numbers the past three seasons. How long until you just accept that’s who he is? That’s an excellent question. Sorry, I don’t have an answer for it. When you look at all the under the surface numbers, it doesn’t make any sense why Max has failed to post better overall numbers. He hits the ball hard, posting an 89.5 mph average exit velocity, that's in the top 30 percent in the league, but his BABIP was .236, third-worst among qualified hitters. He’s got breakout written all over him in big, bold letters. Add in the excellent defense he provides, that’s not a player I’m especially motivated to move. One thing to consider in potentially sending Kepler away, however, is that there are plenty of intriguing outfield replacement options available on the open market. The Twins also already have guys like Jake Cave, Zack Granite, Michael Reed and LaMonte Wade on the 40-man roster, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alex Kirilloff is pounding at the door by the second half of this upcoming season. I offered up a potential Kepler trade in my offseason blueprint, which had the Twins changing course and focusing more on a rebuilding effort. I wrote that back before Halloween, and while I still believe that strategy may make sense for this Twins team, the talk of Cleveland potentially selling off more pieces has definitely swayed my preference toward the Twins giving themselves a real chance to win the division in 2019. Baseball Prospectus rolled out a new hitting metric: DRC+, or Deserved Runs Created. Jonathan Judge wrote both an introduction to the stat and a case that it’s more accurate than other advanced metrics like wOBA, wRC+ and OPS+. Among the things it does a better job of is park adjustments and factoring in quality of opponent. He also whipped together a nice video explaining how it works: Swinging back to Kepler, he had a 111 DRC+ last season, which was only two points shy of Eddie Rosario and three points less than Eduardo Escobar. Meanwhile, Kepler only had a .727 OPS, Rosie was at .803 and Escobar posted an .824 OPS on the year. BP has also already factored DRC+ into their WARP calculation. Rosario now comes in at 3.8 WARP and Kepler is right on his heels at 3.6 WARP and Escobar had a 2.9 WARP. In an article for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal noted that one of the biggest beneficiaries of DRC+ is free agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu now has a 4.8 WARP from 2018 per B-Pro, that’s the 18th-best in all of baseball. His home/road splits have been extreme over his career, but in 2018 he actually hit the ball harder on the road than he did at Coors Field. His 90.8 mph average exit velocity was inside the top 10 percent in all of baseball, just behind Mike Trout, but he averaged slightly better (91.1 mph) on the road. Rhett Bolinger of MLB.com ran through some of the closer options for the Twins. Among the seven options he highlighted, I think Joakim Soria is the guy who aligns with the Twins in terms of need and expected contract. He’s 34, so it’s not like you’ll need to give him a long-term contract, but he does have 220 career saves. Last season he had a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 (4.69 K:BB ratio) for the White Sox and Brewers. MLB Trade Rumors projected he’d get a two-year, $18 million deal. The market is starting to move. Patrick Corbin signed with the Nationals, Nathan Eovaldi is returning to Boston and Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals. That could make things a little more interesting at the upcoming Baseball Winter Meetings, though as Craig Calcaterra noted over at Hardball Talk, things just aren’t what they used to be. Jayson Stark wrote a well-researched piece about the shift over at The Athletic. He also reported that support for banning the shift is picking up steam. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs provided some more items to consider in a piece titled Banning the Shift Is a Solution in Search of a Problem. If any rule changes were to be implemented for the 2019 season, they would more than likely be agreed upon at the Winter Meetings. Click here to view the article

Nick did a nice job highlighting the Twins’ need for OBP in a piece earlier this week. His focus was on potential upgrades among the free agent options. I’d like to add a potential trade target for consideration: Carlos Santana. But wait, didn’t Santana just get traded? Yup, to the Seattle Mariners. That means he essentially got traded straight to the trade block. The M’s just dealt away Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and Jean Segura, so it’s not like they’re gearing up to have a competitive season.Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported the Mariners are telling teams “they’re fine” with holding on to Santana, but that they’ve also had trade conversations with multiple teams about moving him. I can’t imagine it would cost a great deal to acquire him. The big piece of value in the trade that sent Jean Segura to Philadelphia was J.P. Crawford, who Baseball America had as its No. 16 prospect in the game heading into last season. Santana basically has something like $41.7 million guaranteed to him over the next two years (there’s a team option for a third season, I included the buyout in that estimate). That’s a lot, but it’s only two years. The Twins don’t have much in future liabilities, and there’s always the chance they can get Seattle to eat some of that money. So that’s why the Mariners would likely be open to moving him, but why the Twins would want to bring him aboard? First off, Santana had more walks (110) than strikeouts (93) last season. His 16.2 BB% trailed only Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Joey Votto. A switch-hitter, Santana also comes with no platoon concerns. He has a career .816 OPS against lefties and an even .800 OPS versus right-handers. He’s also been incredibly durable, reaching at least 600 plate appearances for eight straight seasons. He’s a guy who you can count on in the middle of your lineup everyday, no matter who is on the mound. How about that on-base ability? On the downside, his .352 OBP was the lowest he’s posted in seven seasons. The plus side is that’s still well above league average (.318). Also, part of that dip in his OBP was due to the fact Santana had a career-low .231 BABIP in 2018 (his career BABIP is .265). The 2019 Steamer projections like Santana to bounce back, projecting his wRC+ to jump from 109 this past season to 122 next year. That same system is forecasting a 102 wRC+ from Tyler Austin. Speaking of which, Santana’s arrival would certainly push Austin out the door. Maybe he could be a piece that heads to Seattle in the deal to acquire Santana, who knows? I’m starting to sour on the idea of Austin getting regular playing time with the Twins next season. Ted was also wondering aloud in the blog section how much longer Austin would be around. Strikeouts are bearable, but only to a certain point. Consider this: Tyler Austin 36.6 K% Miguel Sano 36.3 K% Byron Buxton 31.7 K% You just can't have an everyday lineup that includes all three of those guys. Jake Cave also has some contact issues (33.0 K%) so it’s not like you’d be getting any relief in the event Buxton went down with an injury. In case you were wondering, Cron has a 22.6 K% for his career, that was up slightly to 25.9 last season. Santana’s career K% is just 16.6, and that was all the way down to 13.7 last year. Santana is a guy who can stabilize the middle of Minnesota’s lineup, provide a veteran presence and combat a few issues that appear to be concerns for the Twins right now. Click here to view the article

He actually left a bit before the season ended. He's now with the Indianapolis Star, primarily covering Notre Dame football.

There are some players who are simply around to fill out a roster. The technical baseball term for these kind of players would be replacement level, but let’s be real, they’re basically the Major League definition of blah. Ehire Adrianza is one of those players. He's not going to help the Twins sell tickets, nobody's clamoring for his baseball card, but you know what? Players like that are still important.Among Minnesota's 10 arbitration-eligible players for 2019, only two looked like legitimate candidates to be non-tendered. One, Robbie Grossman, was sent on his way last week. The other (less likely) was Adrianza, who the Twins were quick to lock up with a one-year, $1.3 million contract. So that’s it, open and close, he's going to be on the Twins in 2019, right? Well, not necessarily. Arbitration contracts are not guaranteed until a player breaks camp with the team. If a player is released during the first 16 days of spring training they’re only obligated to pay them 30 days’ worth of wages. If they’re let go sometime after that, but still before Opening Day, that jumps to 45 days’ worth of pay. There’s some more info at MLB.com on guaranteed contracts. It appears at this current time that the Twins are expecting Adrianza to fill a utility role again in 2019, but they have plenty of time to change course. Should they? Adrianza has proven a very useful pickup for the Twins. He’s appeared in the ninth-most games among Twins position players, and has played almost everywhere: first, second, third, short, left. Let's take a closer look at the versatile infielder, quietly becoming a relative mainstay on the Twins roster. Defense The biggest asset Adrianza provides is the ability to play shortstop. It’s really the only thing that’s kept him in the majors this long, but how is he over there? There are 39 players who logged at least 700 innings at shortstop over the past two seasons. Adrianza ranks 33rd in Defensive Runs Above Average, per FanGraphs. That’s one spot ahead of Jorge Polanco. If we switch the focus over to UZR/150, Adrianza gets a slight bump up to 29th. No, that’s not especially inspiring, but I would argue he is a capable major league shortstop. The main reason why he ranks so low among his peers is mainly because guys who simply cannot play the position don’t get that many opportunities to do so at the highest level. Let’s zoom out a bit. If you change the criteria to all players who have a minimum of 500 innings at shortstop over the last four seasons combined, suddenly Adrianza ranks 34th among that sample of 68 players in Defensive Runs Above Average. Hitting Of the 298 players to amass at least 500 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Adrianza’s .689 OPS ranks 247th. Well that’s pretty bad, right? In the context of middle infielders, it’s actually not all that terrible. Ehire still has a higher OPS the past two seasons than Addison Russell, Freddy Galvis, Tim Anderson, Jose Reyes, Jose Iglesias, Amed Rosario, Orlando Arcia, Dansby Swanson … you get the point. Quite a few of those guys were starting shortstops for their teams in 2018. Being a switch-hitter, Adrianza also doesn’t see a big hit from the platoon advantage, though he has been a little better against lefties over his career (.266/.318/.381). That’s something that can come in handy for a bench player. Something that surprised me about last season’s numbers was that Adrianza’s hard hit rate (the frequency in which he hit a ball in play 95 mph or harder) was actually higher than Eduardo Escobar last season. Ehire was at 30.5 percent while Eduardo was at 27.2 percent. So is Adrianza’s bat an asset? No, I wouldn’t necessarily say that, but the bar is set pretty low for a shortstop. He’s better than a good number of the alternatives. Running Adrianza is right around average in terms of sprint speed, which means he’s pretty slow for a middle infielder. Among the players on the Twins last season, Robbie Grossman, Logan Forsythe and Tyler Austin all registered faster sprint speeds than Ehire. But, at the same time, Adrianza is 13-for-15 in stolen base attempts as a Twin and has rated out as a slightly above average base runner by FanGraphs. When you take a look at the overall package Adrianza presents, yes, it’s pretty blah. Still, given how he stacks up against a lot of other shortstops, I actually think that he’d have a decent chance of beating that $1.3 million deal he agreed to with the Twins if he was on the open market. Taking a look back at his history, I also think it’s reasonable to think he’s more likely to improve than he is to regress. Development Since he’s already 29-years-old and hasn’t ever really shown any flashes of becoming a better offensive player, the assumption is Adrianza is without upside. That’s completely fair, but I’m not 100 percent certain it’s true. The climb up the ladder of the minor leagues is especially difficult for guys like Ehire who make their professional debuts at 16-years-old. They always get pushed eventually. Their developmental timetables are so different than, say, a guy drafted out of college. Adrianza reached Double A for the first time in his age 22 season. It did not go well. He hit .220/.289/.310 in 512 plate appearances. He repeated the level in 2013 and fared a little better, hitting .240/.331/.312. That slight improvement earned him a jump up to Triple A in mid July of 2014 and he busted out in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. After hitting .310/.409/.441 in 45 games, Adrianza was headed to San Francisco as a September callup. Was he ready? Probably not, but he was already on the 40-man roster, so it was time. In 2014, Adrianza played just six games in the minors and had 106 plate appearances with the Giants. Not a lot of room for development there. This would be a theme over his last few seasons with the Giants. Adrianza opened 2015 with another impressive run in Triple A, hitting .316/.384/.415 over 44 games. That earned him another shot with the Giants, but again he only logged 134 plate appearances with San Francisco. In 2016, his final season with the Giants, Ehire really struggled to stay on the field. He played a grand total of 17 games in the minors and got just 41 plate appearances in the bigs. Add it all up and you had a guy entering his age 27 season with 105 career games at Triple A, never more than 45 in one season. In the Majors, he’d accrued just 331 plate appearances stretched across four seasons. It can’t be easy to work on anything when you’re seeing so little playing time. It’s sad to say, but the best thing for Adrianza probably would have been if he cleared waivers, became a free agent and signed a minor league deal that allowed him to get regular at-bats. Of course, that’s not what happened. The Brewers claimed him from the Giants, then when Milwaukee tried to sneak him through the Twins claimed him. Ehire had yet another fairly inactive season in 2017. For the four seasons from 2014-17, Adrianza averaged a grand total of just 211 plate appearances per season. Just to put that into perspective, Twins prospect Ryan Jeffers managed to get 284 plate appearances in the minors this season and he was just drafted in June. Trade deadline acquisition Logan Forsythe got 205 plate appearances with the Twins last season. That lack of seeing competitive pitching could not have helped Adrianza’s swing or approach at the plate. Thanks to the Jorge Polanco suspension and then the Eduardo Escobar trade, Adrianza managed to log 366 plate appearances with the Twins in 2018. He had one 10-day stay on the DL in early July due to a hamstring injury, other than that he was on the roster all season. When Minnesota acquired Adrianza he had a .220/.292/.313 slash line in 331 MLB PA; since then he's at .256/.309/.380 in 552 PA. The "all glove, no bat" label doesn't quite apply, as his 23 doubles in 2018 ranked sixth on the Twins. His offense teeters between adequate and intriguing (again, in the context of a guy who can play shortstop). I’d love to go out on a limb and say that somebody maybe more exciting such as Nick Gordon, who is now on the 40-man roster, would be a better option to fill the utility role. I can’t. Gordon is still at the point in his career where more time in Triple A might be key. Some players (like Adrianza) have suffered from not having that extra development in the high minors. Also, Ehire may not be a guy who’s going to win you any games, but he’s also not going to hurt you. That’s probably not true of Gordon. Throughout a season, major-league teams always have extra players a phone call (and a day) away at Triple-A. But on a game-to-game basis, you need players with flexibility to fill multiple roles. Adrianza can capably handle virtually every position. Ehire Adrianza isn’t going to be a guy the Twins promote on their banners outside of Target Field, but he does provide value to the roster. He remains a logical piece to the 25-man roster. In today’s age of three-man benches, having a player reserve capable of playing shortstop is a must. Click here to view the article

As we get closer to the Winter Meetings more rumors are starting to swirl, but it’s nearly impossible to find anything specifically related to the Twins. Maybe that’s because this is a tight-lipped front office, maybe it’s just because they haven’t made much progress on anything yet. Then again, dealin’ Jerry Dipoto hasn’t seemed to have any trouble making things happen for the Mariners.In two separate blockbuster trades, Seattle sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets and Jean Segura to the Phillies. It seems like the Twins should have had some interest in all three of those players, but Cano and Segura both have no-trade authority, so it’s possible they were never an option. Still, the few whispers going around indicate that the Twins are more focused on the trade market at this time, but if you can’t work out a deal with Dipoto what chance do you have of bartering with anyone else? OK, there are 28 other fish in the GM sea, but I have to admit I’m getting a little restless. Luckily the Baseball Winter Meetings start this coming Sunday in Las Vegas. We should have a better idea of what’s to come based on next week’s activity. Single-game Twins spring training tickets went on sale this morning. Their first home game is Saturday, Feb. 23 and $12 gets you in the door. MLB Trade Rumors passed along updates around a couple of the top pitchers dominating the rumor mill of late: Noah Snydergaard and Patrick Corbin. Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen said that only under special circumstances would he even consider trading away Thor. It’s possible Corbin, a lifelong Yankees fan, would take a discount to don the pinstripes. Might as well just Photoshop the interlocking NY on his profile pic right now. UPDATE: Of course. Corbin went ahead and signed with the Nationals, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Per Jon Morosi, the Brewers have touched base with the Yankees about Sonny Gray. He also reported that the Reds are open to trading for Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer. One last trade note from Morosi: The Cardinals have worked on a potential Paul Goldschmidt deal with Arizona. It’s a little deflating to see similar teams/markets like Milwaukee, Cincinnati and St. Louis in on these players. I can accept the fact that certain teams can outspend the Twins, I can accept the fact that some guys with no-trade authority aren’t going to be interested in coming to Minnesota, but stuff like this is more difficult to swallow. The Reds lost 95 games last season, for Pete’s sake. The Twins haven’t made many changes to the roster so far this offseason, but there have been a ton of moves in terms of who will be covering the team. Rhett Bollinger is returning home to California to cover the Angels for MLB.com, replacing him will be Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark on Twitter). Also, the Pioneer Press finally has its replacement for Mike Berardino. Betsy Helfand (@betsyhelfand on Twitter) will step in as their beat writer. Both Park and Helfand start their new jobs this coming Sunday. Speaking of Rhett, he took a look at middle infielders on the free agent market who could make sense for the Twins. A lot of the names that have already been bandied about are listed, but he also included Jonathan Schoop and Tim Beckham, who were just non-tendered late last week. Mr. Bollinger also looked back at the 10 biggest trades in Twins history. It’s a fun list to go through, but an interesting takeaway is that there aren’t any deals included from the past decade. It kinda feels like the Twins are due to make a big swap. The MLB.com trio of Mike Rosenbaum, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo identified one prospect from each team who could be traded this winter. Kind of a weird exercise, but OK. They listed Luis Arraez for the Twins, who they have as the team’s No. 15 prospect. Strictly in terms of value, Arraez is pretty similar to where Jermaine Palacios was a year ago. He’s a prospect, there are certainly things to like about him, but at the same time he’s a guy you can afford to lose from your system if it means upgrading the big club. Palacios was sent to Tampa in the Jake Odorizzi deal last February. Not a big fan of the Pohlads? It could be worse. Over at the STrib, Michael Rand shared that Donald Watkins has been indicted on federal fraud charges. Watkins tried to buy the Twins back in 2001. Cliff Corcoran is ranking every MLB uniform over at The Athletic. He puts the Twins 27th in front of only the Astros, Padres and Diamondbacks. He’s got some very strong takes, saying the Twins sullied a classic design and that the gold drop shadow desecrated arguably the best cap in baseball. Click here to view the article

Today was the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Ehire Adrianza has agreed to a deal worth $1.3 million for 2019, avoiding arbitration. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the Twins would not be tendering Robbie Grossman a contract. I’ll do my best to update this article with all the players who are non-tendered as news breaks. Any player who is not tendered a contract becomes a free agent.*All projected arbitration salaries are from MLB Trade Rumors. The White Sox did not tender contracts to a couple of their better hitters from the 2018 season: Matt Davidson and Avisail Garcia. Davidson was projected to make $2.4 million while Garcia was tabbed for $8.0 million. Davidson had a .738 OPS in 496 plate appearances and slugged 20 homers for the second straight season. He got most of his reps at DH but has also played first base and third base. Garcia, an All-Star in 2017, had a .719 OPS with 19 home runs in just 385 plate appearances. Both Davidson (.268/.344/.461) and Garcia (.304/.358/.457) have handled left-handed pitching pretty well over their careers. Jeff Passan was first with the Davidson news while Scott Merkin was first to report on Garcia. Also of note in the AL Central: Detroit is expected to non-tender catcher James McCann and reliever Alex Wilson, per Anthony Fenech. McCann made 112 starts behind the plate for the Tigers last year, but had a career-low .581 OPS. McCann was projected to make $3.5 million. Wilson had a 3.36 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last year despite a pitch-to-contact approach that saw him average just 6.3 K/9. The Reds will non-tendered Billy Hamilton (as first reported by C. Trent Rosecrans), one of the most recognizable faces in Cincinnati over the past five seasons. The bat never came around, but Hamilton has averaged 65 stolen bases per 162 games played over his career and provides incredible defense in center field. He was projected to make $5.9 million. The Mets non-tendered infielder Wilmer Flores. He’s posted a 109 OPS+ over the past three seasons combined. Flores has been seeing more time at first base the past couple seasons, but has still got in some reps at second base and third base. He was projected to make $4.7 million. Joel Sherman had that news first. 5:20 p.m. Update The Brewers announced they would not be tendering a contract to second baseman Jonathan Schoop. After hitting 32 home runs with a .841 OPS in 2017, Schoop's numbers plummeted. He was struggling for Baltimore, then really tanked after a trade sent him to Milwaukee. He finished with a .233/.266/.416 (.682) slash line and was pinned to make $10.1 million through arbitration. Milwaukee will also non-tender lefties Dan Jennings and Xavier Cedeno. In parts of seven seasons in the Majors, Jennings has a 2.96 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 7.1 K/9. He's made 70 appearances in each of the past two seasons. Cedeno pitched to a 2.43 ERA in 33 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Brewers last year. He averaged 9.2 K/9 but also walked a batter nearly every other inning (4.3 BB/9). Trade Rumors had Jennings expected to make $1.6 million while Cedeno was at $1.5 million. Mark Feinsand reported that the Royals non-tendered Jason Adam, Samir Duenez, Andres Machado and Bubba Starling. Kansas City is expected to bring all four back on minor league deals. 5:55 p.m. Update Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the Twins will non-tender Robbie Grossman. With the addition of C.J Cron, this seemed like a likely move. Jake Cave's emergence and LaMonte Wade being added to the 40-man roster also certainly played a part. In three seasons with the Twins, Grossman hit .266/.371/.400 (.771), but he was projected to make $4 million next season. With the retirement of Joe Mauer and now Grossman's apparent exit the Twins could really use an OBP boost. 6:05 p.m. Update The Diamondbacks announced they have non-tendered Shelby Miller, Brad Boxberger and Chris Owings. A former first-round pick who was a centerpiece in two bit trades, Miller was been a big disappointment in Arizona. He made just 28 starts over thre seasons and had a 6.35 ERA with the Snakes. Boxberger led the AL with 41 saves back in 2015 when he was with the Rays, but has a 4.21 ERA and averaged 5.2 BB/9 in 107 innings since. Owings has played all over the diamond in his six years with the D-Backs. He's coming off a career-worst .574 OPS, but hit .273/.308/.428 (.736) in the two prior seasons. The Blue Jays will not tender a contract to infielder Yangervis Solarte. In his only season with Toronto, Solarte hit .226/.277/.378 (.655) while making 79 starts at third base, 26 at second base and five at shortstop. The Twins originally signed Solarte out of Venezuela back in 2005. 6:20 p.m Update The Twins will avoid going to arbitration with C.J. Cron. He agreed to a $4.8 million deal, slightly below the $5.2 million MLB Trade Rumors had him projected to receive. 6:25 p.m. update Blake Parker will be non-tendered by the Angels, according to Mark Feinsand. This is the most surprising one so far in my book. Parker has pitched to a 2.90 ERA in 138 appearances over the past two seasons with the Angels, racking up 22 saves in the process. He also has an impressive 1.03 WHIP and 4.46 K:BB ratio over that same stretch (10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9). Parker, 33, was projected to make a modest $3.1 million. 7:10 p.m. update The Angels have also non-tendered starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker. The runner-up for the 2014 AL Rookie of the Year award, Shoemaker has seen his innings drop and his ERA rise in each of the past three seasons. He made just seven starts and had a 4.94 ERA for the Angels in 2018. The Phillies non-tendered first baseman Justin Bour and left-handed reliever Luis Avilan. Bour had incredible power numbers in 2017, slugging .536. That dipped to .404 last season, but he still had a 110 OPS+. His calling card is the ability to mash right-handed pitching (.269/.354/.499 career). Cleveland's rotation is very much skewed toward righties ... hmm. Avilan has a career 3.09 ERA in more than 300 innings pitched. Over the past three seasons, he's posted a 10.6 K/9. Lefties have hit just .213/.289/.292 (.581) against him. 7:30 p.m. update Another round of non-tenders! Oakland: Mike Fiers, Kendall Graveman and Cory Gearrin. After a couple of poor years with the Astros, Fiers had a nice bounce back. He started the year in Detroit, then was traded to Oakland in early August. Altogether he had a 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.76 K:BB ratio in 172 innings pitched. Graveman has a 4.38 ERA for his career but in seven starts last season that was up to 7.60 ERA. Gearrin, a right-handed reliever, has a 2.80 ERA in 125 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but he's also averaged 4.0 BB/9. Giants: Hunter Strickland and Gorkys Hernandez. Strickland had an outstanding first three seasons but took a step back in 2018. In 45 1/3 innings, Strickland had a 3.97 ERA and averaged 4.2 BB/9 while only striking out 7.3 K/9. Baltimore: Tim Beckham and Caleb Joseph. Beckham's a long ways away from being the No. 1 overall pick, but he flashed some skills in his time with the O's. He had a career year in 2017, hitting .278/.328/.454 (.782) with 22 home runs, but failed to back that up. Beckham had just a .661 OPS last season. Cubs: Ronald Torreyes. The Cubs acquired Torreyes in a trade from the Yankees on Wednesday for a player to be named later. Hard to figure this one out ... 8:00 p.m. update Texas: Matt Bush Another former No. 1 overall pick! Bush was converted to the mound and had an impressive debut back in 2016. Since then, however, he has a 4.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 75 1/3 innings. Still, that 96 mph fastball will surely open some eyes. Houston: Chris Herrmann Old friend alert. Herrmann hit .237/.322/.421 (.743) in 87 plate appearances for the Mariners last year and .250/.385/.425 (.809) in 78 games for their Triple-A affiliate. Final Thoughts Some of these guys could make a lot of sense for the Twins. Blake Parker is a guy who jumps out in particular, mainly because I think bullpen help is probably the biggest need right now. Could Jonathan Schoop be a good bounce back candidate at second base? Love the power, love the arm strength but what happened? Can Mike Fiers back up his bounce back? He could be nice rotation insurance ... or he could turn back into a pumpkin. I think Avisail Garcia could be a great guy to push Max Kepler and also get some DH at bats. Same for Justin Bour and Tyler Austin. Same for Tim Beckham and Ehire Adrianza, but he'd just be pushing him straight off the roster. Not sure if the Twins would have interest in Garcia, Bour or Beckham though. Cleveland also traded away catcher Yan Gomes. All in all, it was a good day for the Twins. The rest of the division got a little worse on the whole and the free agent pool got a little deeper. Click here to view the article

I could also point to how poorly Berrios debuted as a reason to be encouraged about some of the young guys taking a step forward, but what does any of that have to do with 2019?

The top 25 stat was in the American League, but this works too. I'll take three of the top 45 starting pitchers in all of baseball.

Adalberto Mejia has a 108 ERA+ in 122 2/3 career innings.

Yup. Lance Lynn 5.10 ERA in 20 starts Ervin Santana 8.03 ERA in five starts The big X-factor will be how they react when someone struggles. They can't afford to keep sinking innings into lost causes. With the amount of options they have waiting in the wings, that shouldn't be necessary.

I think Twins fans to some degree are stuck in this mentality that we need starting pitching. Two things on that topic ... 1) That's not a team weakness right now. Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi were all top 25 WAR for AL pitchers. Add Pineda and a bunch of good options for the fifth spot and you've got a playoff-caliber rotation. This team needs to score more runs and get a better performance from its bullpen. 2) Take a look at the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers rotation. Their best starter last year was roughly as good as Odorizzi. They still went 96-67 and were a game away from the World Series. There's no such thing as too much pitching, and the rotation does thin out after next season with Gibby, Odo and Pineda all set to become free agents, but I still wouldn't do anything drastic such as trade away Lewis to upgrade the rotation.

Those two would make the Twins sooooo much better, but there are money concerns and not just with Cano. Do you think the Mauer contract prevented the Twins from competing? I'd say no. Cano is also better than post-concussion Mauer, so I don't feel like his deal would hold the Twins back. The issue with Diaz is if you keep letting him rack up saves he's going to get ridiculously expensive through arbitration. Why anybody would give save chances to pre-arb or arb-eligible players is beyond me. You're burning money. Let them pitch the eighth. Now to the actual question, what would I give up? Well, not a lot, something like ... Brent Rooker + Nick Gordon + Jake Cave + Zack Littell The big benefit to Seattle in this offer would be on the financial side. They're taking back quite a bit of money in that Mets proposal. I'd imagine the Mariners would appreciate both not having to take on bad money and getting guys who could contribute in 2019. If Seattle is truly desperate to get out of Cano's contract and terrified of what they'll need to pay Diaz, this could work. This same line of thinking could work in other trade talks. The Twins have the ability to provide salary relief to a team looking to get out of a bad/big deal (how weird is that to say?). I don't think you need to give up a ton of talent in a scenario in which you're taking on a hefty contract. Cano's deal is particularity scary, there are some others that aren't nearly as bad. Looking at you Toronto. I don't think the Blue Jays want to pay Marcus Stroman and Ken Giles what they're going to get via arbitration the next two years (proj. $13.8M combined for 2019), I'm sure they'd love to get out of Troy Tulowitzki's contract (2 years, $38M guaranteed) and Russell Martin (1 year, $20M) is already on the rumor mill.

Six years of Royce Lewis? Yes. There's still some uncertainty around the next three years of Thor too. There are no guarantees. I believe Royce is a shortstop, but even if he moves to the outfield you're going to get an awesome defensive outfielder. Not all of his value is tied up in the ability to stick at shortstop. If the Twins were one ace pitcher away from winning a World Series, I'd feel differently about this question. But right now, I believe six years of Royce Lewis gives the Twins a better chance at winning a World Series at some point than three years of Noah Syndergaard.

I wouldn't give up Royce for him.

I've got one more item to pass along. Shortly after this published, Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs reported that the Mets are motivated to trade away Noah Syndergaard. Thor has had some injury issues, but he's also managed to top 150 innings in three of his four seasons with the Mets. That also comes with a 2.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 4.94 K:BB ratio. He's under team control via arbitration for the next three seasons and is still only 26-years-old, so I'd have to imagine the asking price is going to be very high.

Nathan Eovaldi is one of the hottest free agents on the market right now. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the Astros have joined the mix of 10 teams confirmed to have interest in the 28-year-old right-hander. With that much competition, Eovaldi figures to land himself a handsome contract. It’s difficult to see the Twins coming out on top of the bidding war should they join the pursuit, but what they really should be doing is trying to find the next Nathan Eovaldi.Eovaldi had a solid 2018 season, but his postseason performance for the Red Sox really put him over the top. He missed the entire 2017 season and the two years prior to that pitched to a 4.45 ERA in 279 innings with the Yankees. Sounds a lot like Michael Pineda, right? Fingers crossed. In trying to come up with a similar buy-low, high-upside option I landed on Eovaldi’s Boston teammate and fellow free agent Drew Pomeranz. From 2014-17, he had a 3.24 ERA in nearly 500 innings. Forearm issues caused him all sorts of problems in 2018, including a dip in velocity. He had a 6.08 ERA for the Red Sox last year and was demoted to the bullpen. So obviously there are some red flags, but MLB Trade Rumors predicted that he’d be available on a one-year, $6 million contract. I’d take that gamble. I floated that idea out on Twitter, but Darren Wolfson of KSTP was kind enough to let me know the Twins had not made any contact with Pomeranz at this time. Maybe that will change once they address more urgent matters, who knows? Also, for those wondering, Drew is not related to former Twin Cities broadcaster and minor league pitcher Mike Pomeranz. Doogie also noted on Twitter that the Twins have been in contact with Patrick Corbin’s agent. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Corbin, the top pitcher on this year’s free agent market, is expecting to receive six-year offers. Corbin has met with the Phillies, Nationals and is expected to meet with the Yankees. Jim Pohlad is notoriously averse to long commitments, and there’s some logic in that stance, so it still seems the Twins would be a long shot to land the lefty. It seems pretty odd that Cleveland is apparently forced to shed a lot of payroll this offseason, but even more strange is who they’re inclined to move. Bob Nightengale of the USA Today reported that there’s a sense the team is more amenable to send away Trevor Bauer than Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco. Not only is Bauer the youngest of that trio, he also had the best 2018 season of that group. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported today that the Dodgers are in trade talks with Cleveland and its believed one of the members of their rotation would be headed to LA if any deal is agreed upon. The Twins could certainly use a boost in their rotation, but I doubt Cleveland would be motivated to deal one of their best players to their top division rival. Still, someone like Bauer potentially leaving Cleveland, along with their other pending free agents, will obviously give the Twins better odds of winning the division. Rob Huff of MLB Trade Rumors projected the Twins to have a $125 million payroll for 2019. That means they'd have $48 million to spend this offseason. Given the comments by ownership and the front office, I would be surprised if they went that high. But again, if Cleveland sheds talent the Twins should absolutely get aggressive. The Indians are already losing Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. The fact that there’s so much speculation that they’re looking to shed payroll means they’re certainly not going to be signing any big free agents. Michael Clair of Cut 4 predicted that the Twins would win the AL Central next season. One of the things he points to in the team bridging the gap to Cleveland is luck. So many things went poorly for the Twins in 2018 while Cleveland avoided a lot of those unforeseen issues, outside of their bullpen problems. If they traded Bauer and one of Francisco Lindor or Jose Ramirez was forced to miss a significant amount of time, that team would be very ordinary. The first Twins Hot Stove Show of the offseason was recorded Wednesday night. You can listen back to the full episode here. Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli were the guests. There was a lot of talk about culture, leadership and forming partnerships. A couple members of the 2018 Twins are moving on to other organizations. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Trib provided details on Jeff Pickler joining the Reds coaching staff and Chris Gimenez becoming the game planning coach for the Dodgers. Over at Twinkie Town, Hayden looked back at the 10 dumbest things that happened to the Twins in 2018. I laughed, I cried, I realized there was lots of dumb stuff I’d already blocked out of my memory. A name you can expect to be hearing a lot is Yusei Kikuchi. The Seibu Lions are expected to post the 27-year-old lefty next week. He’s already in the US and was spotted at an Anaheim Ducks game. Here’s some video of Kikuchi on the mound: I haven’t seen the Twins linked to Kikuchi in any way, but he seems like a player they should definitely have interest in. He has a 2.81 ERA in more than 1,000 innings in the NPB. If you’re interested in learning more, Yankees site River Ave Blues did an excellent job profiling Kikuchi. Click here to view the article

Fun article. If the Twins are trying to win in 2019, Fernando Romero to the bullpen makes a ton of sense. Long term? That's really difficult to say without knowing whether they're going to be willing to extend Gibson, sign free agents or trade for starters. The 2020 rotation is looking really thin (no Gibby, no Odorizzi, no Pineda). I'd do it. If your season goes down the tank, you can always send Romero back down, stretch him out and get him ready to start again in 2020.