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Here are the top-five longest home runs hit by Twins batters in 2018, as measured by Statcast’s projected distance: 5. Logan Morrison, 442 feet off Glenn Sparkman on Aug. 4 https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053450878412308480 4. Jake Cave, 443 feet off Yovani Gallardo on Sept. 1 https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053451247410442240 3. Eduardo Escobar, 443 feet off Josh Tomlin on June 1 *I used exit velocity as the tiebreaker between this and Cave’s bomb. https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053451482111135745 2. Tyler Austin, 451 feet off Matthew Boyd on Aug. 17 https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053451695194279937 1. Miguel Sano, 455 feet off Mike Fiers on Aug. 25 https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053451938149351424 It’s no surprise to see Sano and Austin top this list, but neither of them led the team in average home run distance this year. That title goes to Cave, whose 13 homers traveled an averaged distance of 419 feet. The runner-up was Mitch Garver, who averaged 408 feet on his seven home runs. Previous installments of the 2018 Highlights Series: Walk-Off Wins | I took a look back at all six of the Twins’ walk-off wins from 2018. Super Rosario and La Tortuga | Eddie Rosario and Willians Astudillo provided excitement in an otherwise down season. Here I reviewed some of their most entertaining moments. Top Pitching Performances | Here’s a look back at the top five outings of the season as rated by Game Score 2.0.
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One of the strange things about the 2018 season for the Twins was that the one thing that seems to be a constant organizational weakness — starting pitching — was an area they actually improved upon from the prior year. Join me as I take a look back at the best performances turned in by Twins starting pitchers this season.If you read the game recaps here at Twins Daily you should at least have some familiarity with the term Game Score. It’s a fun stat originally created by Bill James as a way to evaluate a starter’s performance. Tom Tango then built on that idea and developed Game Score 2.0. Here’s a link to some more information on how it works. On the downside, Game Score isn’t the most scientific of stats, but on the other hand it’s fairly simple and straightforward. Without further adieu, here are the top five Twins pitching performances of 2018 per Game Score 2.0: 5. Jose Berrios, 85 Game Score vs. STL on May 15 7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K That’s right, Berrios had all five of the best starts for the Twins as measured by Game Score 2.0. Kyle Gibson was the more consistent pitcher, but it was Berrios’ ability to go out and toss a gem that helped him earn a narrow victory in the voting for Twins Daily Pitcher of the Year. Speaking of Gibson, he just missed the cut, topping out at 84. He achieved that score on July 12 against Tampa Bay when he pitched eight innings of one-run ball with five hits, no walks and nine strikeouts. Jake Odorizzi’s best Game Score was a 78. That was the game where he carried a no-hitter late into the game, but ended up giving up a run on one hit and three walks over 7 1/3 innings, picking up five strikeouts in the process. In case you missed them, here are the previous installments of the 2018 Highlights Series: Walk-Off Wins | I took a look back at all six of the Twins’ walk-off wins from 2018. Super Rosario and La Tortuga | Eddie Rosario and Willians Astudillo provided excitement in an otherwise down season. Here I reviewed some of their most entertaining moments. Click here to view the article
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If you read the game recaps here at Twins Daily you should at least have some familiarity with the term Game Score. It’s a fun stat originally created by Bill James as a way to evaluate a starter’s performance. Tom Tango then built on that idea and developed Game Score 2.0. Here’s a link to some more information on how it works. On the downside, Game Score isn’t the most scientific of stats, but on the other hand it’s fairly simple and straightforward. Without further adieu, here are the top five Twins pitching performances of 2018 per Game Score 2.0: 5. Jose Berrios, 85 Game Score vs. STL on May 15 7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053467856732676096 4. Jose Berrios, 86 Game Score vs. TEX on June 24 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 K https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053468139558723585 3. Jose Berrios, 86 Game Score vs. CHW on June 7 9.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K *I used total outs recorded as the tiebreaker between this and the the other 86 score. https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053468435261349890 2. Jose Berrios, 87 Game Score vs. CHW on April 12 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053468772135288832 1. Jose Berrios, 92 Game Score at BAL on April 1 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1053469711588118529 That’s right, Berrios had all five of the best starts for the Twins as measured by Game Score 2.0. Kyle Gibson was the more consistent pitcher, but it was Berrios’ ability to go out and toss a gem that helped him earn a narrow victory in the voting for Twins Daily Pitcher of the Year. Speaking of Gibson, he just missed the cut, topping out at 84. He achieved that score on July 12 against Tampa Bay when he pitched eight innings of one-run ball with five hits, no walks and nine strikeouts. Jake Odorizzi’s best Game Score was a 78. That was the game where he carried a no-hitter late into the game, but ended up giving up a run on one hit and three walks over 7 1/3 innings, picking up five strikeouts in the process. In case you missed them, here are the previous installments of the 2018 Highlights Series: Walk-Off Wins | I took a look back at all six of the Twins’ walk-off wins from 2018. Super Rosario and La Tortuga | Eddie Rosario and Willians Astudillo provided excitement in an otherwise down season. Here I reviewed some of their most entertaining moments.
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You're right, you certainly wouldn't want to go out of your way to put Max at first base, where his athleticism would be wasted to some degree, but here's a scenario in which I could see it making sense: Twins sign Andrew McCutchen and Nelson Cruz. Cruz plugs up the DH, Cutch takes over as the primary right fielder, forcing Max into a sort of super utility role between all three OF positions, 1B and DH. He's there as Buxton insurance, he's there as Austin insurance, he's there as injury insurance. I think even if everyone plays well and stays healthy you could still find Max plenty of reps in that role. It may seem like overkill, but this is basically what the Brewers did last offseason when they acquired two outfielders despite that not appearing to be a big area of need. The biggest problem the 2018 Twins had was injuries. Their next biggest problem was having insufficient depth to cover for those injuries. I think it would be ideal to aim for offensive overkill in an effort to be prepared for the worst.
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Scoop runs saved is what you're looking for, it's essentially successful scoop percentage. I don't believe that's available online, though I could be wrong. I think it's in the Fielding Bible, which is available in print each year. Scoop runs saved is a component of Defensive Runs Saved, which is available at FanGraphs. I'm not out to debate with anybody on whether or not Joe Mauer is a good defensive first baseman. He is. No doubt in my mind. And the metrics back that up, rating him a +3 in DRS last season, so above average. He didn't rank among the top guys in the league at the position, but a big part of that was because he only made 85 starts at first. My question is how much more valuable is a good defensive player at first base compared to one that may be slightly below average? I'm not sure what the exact answer would be, but there's certainly a point in where a guy can provide enough with the bat to make up for any defensive shortcomings.
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Correct, it's any throw that hits the dirt prior to reaching the first baseman. I get what you're saying, I think if you were to ask me to predict how many balls Mauer dug out of the dirt last season I'd probably have guessed double what their number is. But that data comes from Baseball Info Solutions, who assign someone to track that kind of stuff for every MLB game. I have not been able to audit that information myself/didn't track scoops, so that's the best I've got to go off of. I'll be working on some defensive stuff for a future installment of the 2018 highlights series I've been running. I know I've got a bunch of Mauer scoops in those, I'm interested in tallying them up. After thinking about how few plays there are on the infield these days, however, that low frequency of scoops doesn't really surprise me all too much. I think on average there are only 10 or 11 ground balls hit per team per game and a couple of those are going to go for hits. That doesn't leave a whole lotta plays to be made in the first place.
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Last season Joe Mauer had 20 scoops in 753 2/3 innings played at first base, per FanGraphs. That's basically one scoop per every four games he played there. Copy/pasted this over from the comments of the Polanco article I recently wrote. Sorry to those who already saw it, but I feel like it's worth mentioning again. Yes, you'd much rather have a good defensive player at first, but I'd certainly be willing to sacrifice on defense if it meant more offensive production. While first basemen are involved in a great number of plays throughout a game, the vast majority of them are routine.
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There was a six-year run in between that was mostly filled by Twins greats Scott Stahoviak and Ron Coomer. Maybe it's for the best that we just block that part out of our memories ...
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The Twins are still waiting for the official word from Joe Mauer on whether or not he’d like to continue his playing career, but anybody who saw the final game of 2018 knows the writing’s on the wall. And it’s in big, bold letters. Again, nothing’s been decided yet, but let’s just assume Mauer calls it a career. Then what? First base might be the one spot on the diamond in which teams can get the most creative. Just take a look at how a couple of the teams still alive in the postseason treated the position this year.The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook can be yours on this coming Tuesday if you preorder here for just $10. Not a lot of players who end up at first start their careers there. Mauer’s the perfect example of that himself. These days, it’s also becoming more and more common that teams use some kind of a timeshare at the position. There are a couple of good examples on teams still playing in October. Yuli Gurriel was the primary guy at first for Houston, making 99 starts there, but he also started 13 games at third base, another 11 at second and even made a start at shortstop. His flexibility helped the Astros cover for injuries to their other infielders and allowed slugger Tyler White to come up from the minors for regular time at first base. Cody Bellinger started 85 games at first base for the Dodgers, but he also made another 50 starts in center field, of all places. That allowed Los Angeles to find playing time for incredible diamond in the rough pickup Max Muncy and his .973 OPS. Muncy made 58 starts at first base. In Wednesday night’s NLCS game, the Dodgers used two different first basemen, neither of them Bellinger, and four different players at second base. That team has some pretty incredible flexibility. Keeping those two examples in mind, let’s take a look at how the Twins might fill the potential opening at first base. Taking a look back at 2018, the player with the most innings at first base behind Mauer was actually Logan Morrison. I guess it’s worth mentioning that the Twins do hold an $8 million option for LoMo with a $1 million buyout, but there are much better investments to be made. Tyler Austin was the only other player to see as many as 100 innings at first base for Minnesota last year. He showed impressive power, but he’s also struck out in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. On the other hand, Austin has a .937 OPS against lefties, making him at the very least an attractive platoon partner. He played much more outfield than first over his minor league career, but Austin didn’t play a single inning out there in 2018. After Austin you’ve got Miguel Sano, who played 87 innings of first base this season. He’s certainly someone to keep in mind, but shifting him across the diamond just creates another hole at third base, which is already a weak spot in the org. With Jason Castro expected to return to health and Willians Astudillo establishing himself as a player of interest, there’s a chance the Twins could roll with three catchers next year. In that case, Mitch Garver could be a candidate for regular time at first base. He has some experience there. Max Kepler is a very strong defensive outfielder and hasn’t seen time at first since he played there regularly for Chattanooga back in 2015, but he’s a candidate. If Byron Buxton finds his footing and the Twins add another outfielder, Kepler could make a lot of sense as someone who forms a left-right platoon with Austin. Yes, Max did much better against same-sided pitchers last year, but his career splits still show a fairly significant split (.776 OPS vs. RHP, .605 OPS vs. LHP). Robbie Grossman’s never played an inning of infield in his entire pro career — majors or minors — but he does throw left handed. Considering how uninspiring his defense is in the outfield, maybe someone ought to buy him a first baseman’s mitt ... Down on the farm, Brent Rooker is the big name at the position. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him knocking down the door next season, though he’s certainly not a realistic option for Opening Day. Zander Wiel isn’t as big a name in prospect circles, but he actually had a higher OPS than Rooker last year. Both Rooker and Wiel played quite a bit of outfield, as well. If you really want to go outside the box, LaMonte Wade played a lot of first base in his early years at Maryland, but he’s only played outfield these past four years in the Twins org. So, as you can see, even if we focus solely on internal options there’s no shortage of options. Since first base is the bottom position on the defensive spectrum, in reality anybody could be thrown out there. This is the first time in a very long time that the Twins (appear to) have an opening at first base. Mauer took the reins from Justin Morneau, who succeeded Doug Mientkiewicz. That’s an impressive run of stability — three guys covering 18 seasons — but my suggestion is to end it here. Don’t get me wrong, offensive upgrades are needed, but the front office should simply be focused first on adding a bat. They have enough in-house options and players with defensive flexibility to figure out positioning. How should the Twins fill the (potential) first base opening? They shouldn’t feel the need to. Here’s a look back at what we’ve covered in these Offseason Primers so far: Offseason Primer: Corner Infield Free Agents Offseason Primer: Twins Need to Be Prepared to Pivot from Buxton and Sano Offseason Primer: Building a Badass Bullpen Offseason Primer: Twins Should Stick With Jorge Polanco at Shortstop Offseason Primer: Can Minnesota Mimic Milwaukee's Success? Offseason Primer: The Core Seven (?) If you like what you’ve been reading at the site so far, you’re going to LOVE the handbook. One of the key features included is a full organization depth analysis for not just first base, but every position on the diamond plus the pitching staff. Also included are profile on all the free agent options, a discussion regarding potential trade targets and much more. Click here for more on the handbook, a sneak peek at the cover and the list of special guest contributors. Click here to view the article
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The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook can be yours on this coming Tuesday if you preorder here for just $10. Not a lot of players who end up at first start their careers there. Mauer’s the perfect example of that himself. These days, it’s also becoming more and more common that teams use some kind of a timeshare at the position. There are a couple of good examples on teams still playing in October. Yuli Gurriel was the primary guy at first for Houston, making 99 starts there, but he also started 13 games at third base, another 11 at second and even made a start at shortstop. His flexibility helped the Astros cover for injuries to their other infielders and allowed slugger Tyler White to come up from the minors for regular time at first base. Cody Bellinger started 85 games at first base for the Dodgers, but he also made another 50 starts in center field, of all places. That allowed Los Angeles to find playing time for incredible diamond in the rough pickup Max Muncy and his .973 OPS. Muncy made 58 starts at first base. In Wednesday night’s NLCS game, the Dodgers used two different first basemen, neither of them Bellinger, and four different players at second base. That team has some pretty incredible flexibility. Keeping those two examples in mind, let’s take a look at how the Twins might fill the potential opening at first base. Taking a look back at 2018, the player with the most innings at first base behind Mauer was actually Logan Morrison. I guess it’s worth mentioning that the Twins do hold an $8 million option for LoMo with a $1 million buyout, but there are much better investments to be made. Tyler Austin was the only other player to see as many as 100 innings at first base for Minnesota last year. He showed impressive power, but he’s also struck out in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. On the other hand, Austin has a .937 OPS against lefties, making him at the very least an attractive platoon partner. He played much more outfield than first over his minor league career, but Austin didn’t play a single inning out there in 2018. After Austin you’ve got Miguel Sano, who played 87 innings of first base this season. He’s certainly someone to keep in mind, but shifting him across the diamond just creates another hole at third base, which is already a weak spot in the org. With Jason Castro expected to return to health and Willians Astudillo establishing himself as a player of interest, there’s a chance the Twins could roll with three catchers next year. In that case, Mitch Garver could be a candidate for regular time at first base. He has some experience there. Max Kepler is a very strong defensive outfielder and hasn’t seen time at first since he played there regularly for Chattanooga back in 2015, but he’s a candidate. If Byron Buxton finds his footing and the Twins add another outfielder, Kepler could make a lot of sense as someone who forms a left-right platoon with Austin. Yes, Max did much better against same-sided pitchers last year, but his career splits still show a fairly significant split (.776 OPS vs. RHP, .605 OPS vs. LHP). Robbie Grossman’s never played an inning of infield in his entire pro career — majors or minors — but he does throw left handed. Considering how uninspiring his defense is in the outfield, maybe someone ought to buy him a first baseman’s mitt ... Down on the farm, Brent Rooker is the big name at the position. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him knocking down the door next season, though he’s certainly not a realistic option for Opening Day. Zander Wiel isn’t as big a name in prospect circles, but he actually had a higher OPS than Rooker last year. Both Rooker and Wiel played quite a bit of outfield, as well. If you really want to go outside the box, LaMonte Wade played a lot of first base in his early years at Maryland, but he’s only played outfield these past four years in the Twins org. So, as you can see, even if we focus solely on internal options there’s no shortage of options. Since first base is the bottom position on the defensive spectrum, in reality anybody could be thrown out there. This is the first time in a very long time that the Twins (appear to) have an opening at first base. Mauer took the reins from Justin Morneau, who succeeded Doug Mientkiewicz. That’s an impressive run of stability — three guys covering 18 seasons — but my suggestion is to end it here. Don’t get me wrong, offensive upgrades are needed, but the front office should simply be focused first on adding a bat. They have enough in-house options and players with defensive flexibility to figure out positioning. How should the Twins fill the (potential) first base opening? They shouldn’t feel the need to. Here’s a look back at what we’ve covered in these Offseason Primers so far: Offseason Primer: Corner Infield Free Agents Offseason Primer: Twins Need to Be Prepared to Pivot from Buxton and Sano Offseason Primer: Building a Badass Bullpen Offseason Primer: Twins Should Stick With Jorge Polanco at Shortstop Offseason Primer: Can Minnesota Mimic Milwaukee's Success? Offseason Primer: The Core Seven (?) If you like what you’ve been reading at the site so far, you’re going to LOVE the handbook. One of the key features included is a full organization depth analysis for not just first base, but every position on the diamond plus the pitching staff. Also included are profile on all the free agent options, a discussion regarding potential trade targets and much more. Click here for more on the handbook, a sneak peek at the cover and the list of special guest contributors.
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I didn't get a chance to see him, but some of his numbers -- triples, stolen base success rate -- would appear to support that theory. One thing that sticks out in terms of his on-base ability is he gets hit by a comical amount of pitches. Only one other player in Double A was hit more often last season than Raley (24). He's been plunked 53 times in his young career! To put that in perspective, in the same number of games (though 98 fewer plate appearances), Jaylin Davis has been hit by 20 pitches in his career. I thought Travis Blankenhorn got hit a ton, and he "only" has 35 HBPs in about 100 more PAs than Raley. Safe to say this guy's not afraid of the ball, lol.
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Nice to see Raley make some noise early. A good showing could be big for him. There are already so many other corner OF/1B types in the system, but obviously the front office saw something they liked in him. I'll be interested to see how everything shakes out.
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With the baseball season being so long, a down year can really drag on a fan. On the plus side, playing 162 games generates plenty of memorable moments, even in a forgettable season. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be taking a look back and sharing some of my favorite highlights from the 2018 season. Today we’ll take a look back at a couple guys who provided plenty of excitement: Eddie Rosario and Willians Astudillo.Both Rosario and Astudillo were already featured in the first installment of this 2018 Twins Highlights series, which took a look back at the walk-off wins. The 2018 season may eventually be remembered as the year Joe Mauer hung ‘em up (don’t worry, I’ll get to him in this series a little later), but the one player who consistently made me glad that I kept tuning in was Eddie Rosario. Earlier this month, we crowned Rosario Twins Daily’s 2018 Most Valuable Player, he was also the team’s most electric player to watch this season. Super Rosario, as he was portrayed on a T-shirt from Sota Stick, led the team in virtually every offensive statistic and was a superhero on the bases and in the field. Rosario is among the most aggressive players in the league, and sometimes that risk-taking mentality gets him burnt, but he seems to be getting a better feel for when to put the pedal to the medal as his career has progressed. Get your popcorn ready. Here’s a look back at some of his memorable plays on the bases … I don’t have a highlight package to share for him, but I feel Eduardo Escobar deserves an honorable mention in this sort of highlight player of the year conversation we’re having. Prior to being dealt to the Diamondbacks, Esky was a joy to watch. He was cracking doubles at a historic pace and battled his tail off every day. That does it for this week’s look back at 2018, make sure to let me know in the comments who your favorite player was to watch this season. Click here to view the article
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Both Rosario and Astudillo were already featured in the first installment of this 2018 Twins Highlights series, which took a look back at the walk-off wins. The 2018 season may eventually be remembered as the year Joe Mauer hung ‘em up (don’t worry, I’ll get to him in this series a little later), but the one player who consistently made me glad that I kept tuning in was Eddie Rosario. Earlier this month, we crowned Rosario Twins Daily’s 2018 Most Valuable Player, he was also the team’s most electric player to watch this season. Super Rosario, as he was portrayed on a T-shirt from Sota Stick, led the team in virtually every offensive statistic and was a superhero on the bases and in the field. Rosario is among the most aggressive players in the league, and sometimes that risk-taking mentality gets him burnt, but he seems to be getting a better feel for when to put the pedal to the medal as his career has progressed. Get your popcorn ready. Here’s a look back at some of his memorable plays on the bases … https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1050570082341011456 … in the field … https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1050579099041890304 … and a collection of all his best throws from the outfield. https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1050583986521759744 Unfortunately, Rosario’s year was cut short in mid-September by a quad injury, but by then a new, unlikely hero had emerged: La Tortuga. Willians Astudillo appeared in fewer than 30 games with the Twins this season, but somehow managed to amass the equivalent of a full year’s worth of highlights. Here's a couple minutes of Astudillo that's sure to brighten up your day. https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1050923958881722368 I don’t have a highlight package to share for him, but I feel Eduardo Escobar deserves an honorable mention in this sort of highlight player of the year conversation we’re having. Prior to being dealt to the Diamondbacks, Esky was a joy to watch. He was cracking doubles at a historic pace and battled his tail off every day. That does it for this week’s look back at 2018, make sure to let me know in the comments who your favorite player was to watch this season.
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By the way, last season Joe Mauer had 20 scoops in 753 2/3 innings played at first base, per FanGraphs. That's basically one scoop per every four games he played there. It's a valuable skill, no doubt, and you'd much rather have a guy at first that can pick it than somebody with stone hands, but I think it's an overvalued skill.
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Nobody ever said defense is unimportant. It's not like I'm suggesting Miguel Sano move back to short and Eddie Rosario come in to play second. But to your point on Buxton, if he can't outproduce his career line to this point, they do need to be prepared to try something else, as I wrote earlier this month. His defense isn't worth an 80 OPS+ in the lineup. I've got nothing against Jose Iglesias, but he just doesn't fit on this Twins club as it's currently built. If you're making an upgrade over Polanco, I feel like it's gotta be on both sides, offense and defense, or else you're basically making a lateral move. I love Matt Chapman, but if he would've hit like Matt Walbeck that team wouldn't have gone anywhere. Did you get a chance to watch much of Tyler Austin, or even Miguel Sano, at first base? Not saying I'd put them up on Mauer's level, but I was surprised at how they looked over there. Of course, the Twins may bring in another guy to play first, but these are all guys who have the hand-eye coordination to hit 100 mph fastballs. They can pick a throw from shortstop. Add Morneau to that list too. In fact, when was the last time you saw a butcher at first base? Hmm ...
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It used to be that baseball teams would seek strength up the middle defensively, but in today’s age is it more important that a team has a strong middle of its lineup? We all know balls in play are on the decline, so has it also become more important to find hitters who can turn them into hits, or defenders who can turn them into outs? Jorge Polanco seems like the perfect player to apply this question to.This story helps set the stage for a truly pivotal offseason ahead. It's just a taste of what you'll find in the 2019 Offseason Handbook, which is currently available for preorder. If you wanna learn more about it, and the benefits of preordering, check out our FAQ. Polanco’s 80-game suspension derailed his 2018 season, but he provided a solid bat upon his arrival. From July 1, 2017 through the end of this season, a sample of 624 plate appearances, he hit .279/.340/.445 (.785), good enough for a 110 wRC+. To put that into perspective, shortstops combined to hit .255/.315/.409 (.724) with a 95 wRC+ in 2018, per FanGraphs. But Polanco’s defense has not been as good, to put it kindly. Despite missing half the season, Polanco committed 13 errors. Only nine other shortstops had more. Polanco had the third-worst fielding percentage of the 35 shortstops who logged at least 500 innings at the position this season and the second-worst UZR/150. But is the offensive production worth the drop in defensive ability? It’s no secret that strikeout rates have escalated the past few years. League average K% has gone up from 17.5 in 2008 to 22.3 in 2018. At the same time, walk rates have remained about the same and home run-to-fly ball ratio has increased from 10.1 percent to 12.7 percent. There are a lot of factors at play in why those numbers have changed, but the end result is fewer balls in play. Last season, the average team had 38 plate appearances per game and a ball was put into play about 66 percent of the time. That gives us a total number of 25 balls in play you can expect your defense to have to try and field in an average game, but of those how many are actually difficult plays? If we look at the Inside Edge fielding numbers for the Twins this season, which are available at FanGraphs, it would appear the vast majority of balls in play fall either into the routine play or impossible categories. 2018 Twins Fielding Data Per Inside Edge (3,714 plays tracked) 0% chance: 12.4% (459 total) 1-10% chance: 4.8% (179) 10-40% chance: 4.3% (160) 40-60% chance: 3.3% (125) 60-90% chance: 6.4% (237) 90-100% chance: 68.8% (2,554) So 81.2 percent of all balls in play were deemed as either routine or impossible and another 6.4 percent land in the 60-90 percentile, leaving only 12.4 percent of all balls in play having a likelihood between 1-60 percent chance of being made. Since there are 25 balls in play each game, that means your defense is only going to be asked to try to field about three of those type of plays in a game. And, of course, your shortstop isn’t even necessarily going to be one of those asked to make those plays. Taking a look ahead to the offseason, the Twins could make a defensive improvement and sign a shortstop like Jose Iglesias with the intention of shifting Polanco over to second base. On the other hand, Iglesias only hit .269/.310/.389 with a 90 wRC+, and even that was a very strong year for him at the plate. Keeping Polanco at shortstop and signing a stronger bat to plug in at second base would leave the Twins a little light in terms of infield defense, but it might be worth the extra firepower. For example, free agent second baseman Jed Lowrie hit .267/.353/.448 with a 122 wRC+ for Oakland. You can apply this same kind of thinking across the diamond. Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Jason Castro all bring plenty to the table defensively, but it's also pretty difficult to try to project any of them to be above league average at the plate. There still may be some growth left with Kepler and Buxton, and you wouldn’t want to go out and downgrade every spot on the diamond, but I still feel like the Twins are in a position to sacrifice defense in order to improve their offense. Circling back to Polanco, of course the Twins would prefer to have a better defensive shortstop, but there are so few two-way players at the position. Even Manny Machado, one of the big fish on this year’s free agent market, leaves a lot to be desired as a shortstop. Also, while Polanco will never be a plus defender at short, I’m hopeful he can avoid some of the mistakes he made in 2018. Often times he seemed rushed -- like the game was a little too fast for him -- on the blatant errors he committed on what should have been routine plays. We didn't see that as often in 2017, which makes me wonder if the suspension had anything to do with the backslide he made in the field. Polanco does not fit the ideal profile at the position, but from a big-picture perspective keeping him as the shortstop gives the Twins a better overall chance to be successful in 2019. For more on Manny Machado, Jose Iglesias, Jed Lowrie and all the other middle infield free agent options, make sure to preorder the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. Click here to view the article
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Offseason Primer: Twins Should Stick With Jorge Polanco at Shortstop
Tom Froemming posted an article in Twins
This story helps set the stage for a truly pivotal offseason ahead. It's just a taste of what you'll find in the 2019 Offseason Handbook, which is currently available for preorder. If you wanna learn more about it, and the benefits of preordering, check out our FAQ. Polanco’s 80-game suspension derailed his 2018 season, but he provided a solid bat upon his arrival. From July 1, 2017 through the end of this season, a sample of 624 plate appearances, he hit .279/.340/.445 (.785), good enough for a 110 wRC+. To put that into perspective, shortstops combined to hit .255/.315/.409 (.724) with a 95 wRC+ in 2018, per FanGraphs. But Polanco’s defense has not been as good, to put it kindly. Despite missing half the season, Polanco committed 13 errors. Only nine other shortstops had more. Polanco had the third-worst fielding percentage of the 35 shortstops who logged at least 500 innings at the position this season and the second-worst UZR/150. But is the offensive production worth the drop in defensive ability? It’s no secret that strikeout rates have escalated the past few years. League average K% has gone up from 17.5 in 2008 to 22.3 in 2018. At the same time, walk rates have remained about the same and home run-to-fly ball ratio has increased from 10.1 percent to 12.7 percent. There are a lot of factors at play in why those numbers have changed, but the end result is fewer balls in play. Last season, the average team had 38 plate appearances per game and a ball was put into play about 66 percent of the time. That gives us a total number of 25 balls in play you can expect your defense to have to try and field in an average game, but of those how many are actually difficult plays? If we look at the Inside Edge fielding numbers for the Twins this season, which are available at FanGraphs, it would appear the vast majority of balls in play fall either into the routine play or impossible categories. 2018 Twins Fielding Data Per Inside Edge (3,714 plays tracked) 0% chance: 12.4% (459 total) 1-10% chance: 4.8% (179) 10-40% chance: 4.3% (160) 40-60% chance: 3.3% (125) 60-90% chance: 6.4% (237) 90-100% chance: 68.8% (2,554) So 81.2 percent of all balls in play were deemed as either routine or impossible and another 6.4 percent land in the 60-90 percentile, leaving only 12.4 percent of all balls in play having a likelihood between 1-60 percent chance of being made. Since there are 25 balls in play each game, that means your defense is only going to be asked to try to field about three of those type of plays in a game. And, of course, your shortstop isn’t even necessarily going to be one of those asked to make those plays. Taking a look ahead to the offseason, the Twins could make a defensive improvement and sign a shortstop like Jose Iglesias with the intention of shifting Polanco over to second base. On the other hand, Iglesias only hit .269/.310/.389 with a 90 wRC+, and even that was a very strong year for him at the plate. Keeping Polanco at shortstop and signing a stronger bat to plug in at second base would leave the Twins a little light in terms of infield defense, but it might be worth the extra firepower. For example, free agent second baseman Jed Lowrie hit .267/.353/.448 with a 122 wRC+ for Oakland. You can apply this same kind of thinking across the diamond. Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Jason Castro all bring plenty to the table defensively, but it's also pretty difficult to try to project any of them to be above league average at the plate. There still may be some growth left with Kepler and Buxton, and you wouldn’t want to go out and downgrade every spot on the diamond, but I still feel like the Twins are in a position to sacrifice defense in order to improve their offense. Circling back to Polanco, of course the Twins would prefer to have a better defensive shortstop, but there are so few two-way players at the position. Even Manny Machado, one of the big fish on this year’s free agent market, leaves a lot to be desired as a shortstop. Also, while Polanco will never be a plus defender at short, I’m hopeful he can avoid some of the mistakes he made in 2018. Often times he seemed rushed -- like the game was a little too fast for him -- on the blatant errors he committed on what should have been routine plays. We didn't see that as often in 2017, which makes me wonder if the suspension had anything to do with the backslide he made in the field. Polanco does not fit the ideal profile at the position, but from a big-picture perspective keeping him as the shortstop gives the Twins a better overall chance to be successful in 2019. For more on Manny Machado, Jose Iglesias, Jed Lowrie and all the other middle infield free agent options, make sure to preorder the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. -
I think I'd only promote one of these guys if the Twins were convinced they were going to leave for another managerial opening. Basically, if the only way to keep them in house is to make them manager, go ahead and do it. This is a desirable gig, there are only 30 of these jobs. Why not use the opening to try and attract somebody you'd never be able to get into the org otherwise?
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Article: 2018 Twins Minor League All-Stars
Tom Froemming replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In hindsight I probably should have swung Grzelakowski into my OF, replacing Wade, and plugged Astudillo in at catcher. Tip of the cap to Steve on that savvy move.- 15 replies
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Very interested to see how Jax holds up against some stiffer competition. This will be a good test for him.
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Another thing we shouldn't toss aside: Sano has money and is probably a big target for extortion, especially in a country like the DR. I'm not saying I believe that's what happened here, but as long as we're throwing out theories I think it's fair to suggest it's possible this was local law enforcement shaking down Sano. What actually happened? I have no idea, but the way the information has come out, details and timeline in which everything happened definitely seems fishy. I'd sure like to believe this ESPN report is the way things went down and hope that the officer has a speedy recovery.
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I took a look around to see if there was any more information out there this morning, and it appears the USA Today article is still the most concrete reporting we have on the situation. Here's how they worded things: "Minnesota Twins third baseman Miguel Sano was detained by police in the Dominican Republic after a traffic incident early Sunday morning during which Sano ran over a police officer. Sano struck officer Argenis Emilio Gillandeux with his vehicle, leaving him with a broken leg. The officer was on duty outside the nightclub Riversay in San Pedro de Macoris, according to the police report. Sano was driving a vehicle without license plates and did not have his ID."

