Tom Froemming

Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Berrios: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 68.6% strikes Home Runs: None Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (2-for-4, 2 BB), Polanco (2-for-5, 2B, BB), Cruz (2-for-5, 2B, BB), Cron (2-for-5, 2B) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Cruz .605, Polanco .225, Parker .209, Hildenberger .114 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Schoop -.127, Gonzalez -.185, Rogers -.194 There was some controversy in the top of the 10th inning over the foul ball call, but in the end it appeared the correct call was made. That didn’t stop one of the Kaufman faithful from chanting “we want robots, we want robots” which I got a kick out of. Nelson Cruz hit a line drive toward third base that landed just a few feet before the bag. The third base ump called it fair, which appeared to result in an inning-ending ground out, but the home plate ump called it foul. Given a second chance, Cruz delivered an RBI single to score Willians Astudillo from second base. Speaking of second chances, Blake Parker got the job done in his second opportunity with the Twins, picking up the save. Scoring Struggles The Twins had a man at second and no outs in the sixth inning and did not score. They loaded the bases with no outs in the seventh and did not score. They also got their leadoff man on in the eighth, but somehow came away with zero runs in all three of those innings. After all those offensive struggles from the Twins, this happened: https://twitter.com/AlexFast8/status/1113272122959368193 The Twins made it look like scoring was so hard, Adalberto Mondesi made it look so easy. Not Byron Buxton’s best moment there, by the way. He was finished out that inning but did not return for the ninth due to an apparent back injury. Buxton was to be re-evaluated after the game as a precaution. That inside-the-park home run ended Taylor Rogers’ scoreless inning streak at 28 2/3 innings. Strikeout Surge Ends The Royals are nowhere near as successful as they were during their recent World Series runs, but some of the same formulas remain. The speed is still there, and they still field a lineup that excels at putting the ball in play. Jose Berrios didn’t get his first strikeout until the fifth inning and only racked up four Ks altogether, ending the insane strikeout binge the staff had been on. While he wasn’t as overpowering, Berrios did a nice job of throwing strikes and avoided the one thing you really can’t afford to do against these Royals: Issue walks. It took him only 86 pitches to complete seven innings and once again relied on a heavy dose of offspeed stuff, throwing 32 curveballs and 10 changeups. A couple of the Twins, on the other hand, had all sorts of trouble making contact. Both Marwin Gonzalez and Buxton struck out three times. Gonzalez went down swinging in both of those crushing sixth and seventh innings. The Rosie Run There are all sorts of fun new advanced metrics and it can seem like we measure everything in modern baseball … because we do. You can learn about them, the same way you can learn to bet, but I want to focus on a particular one with which you may not be familiar. There’s a stat called UBR, Ultimate Baserunning, which can be found on FanGraphs. It attempts to pin a value on a player’s contributions on the basepaths outside of just what they do in terms of stolen base attempts. Eddie Rosario established a knack for picking up extra bases his rookie year, ranking seventh in all of baseball in UBR. He was in the top 25 in 2016 but then some of his risks started to backfire in 2017 and he fell outside the top 100 in that metric. Rosario really seemed to adjust nicely, developing a better feel for when to go for it and when to ease up. He ended up with the best UBR rating of his career, which was also fifth in all of baseball. Tonight, that skill came in incredibly handy. Rosario scored the Twins’ first run of the night, coming all the way from first base on a broken-bat single to left-center field. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1113249191189286915 After opening the season 0-for-14, Rosario also broke through with a go-ahead RBI single in the top of the ninth inning. He advanced to second on a ball in the dirt in a bang-bang play at the bag, because of course he did. Cron’s Defense When the Twins signed Nelson Cruz it meant C.J. Cron was going to have to get the lion’s share of his playing time at first base. While that is his natural position, Cron spent the majority of his breakout 2018 season as Tampa Bay’s designated hitter. While the defensive metrics were very positive, Cron ranked fourth among first basemen in defensive runs saved, Twins fans have come to expect excellent play from the position. From Joe Mauer to Justin Morneau to Doug Mientkiewicz, the Twins have had a stretch of sterling scoopers over there. Cron’s made a solid first impression, though there isn’t much defense going on when your pitchers strike out 13 batters a game, but he really shined tonight. Cron made several nice scoops, some to secure outs, others to keep the ball in front of him and prevent the speedy Royals from gaining extra bases. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Next Three Games Wed at KC, 12:15 pm CT Fri at PHI, 6:05 pm CT Sat at PHI, 1:05 pm CT Last Game MIN 9, CLE 3: Twins Take Series Behind Pineda, Tortuga More From Twins Daily 2019 Rochester Red Wings Preliminary Roster 2019 Pensacola Blue Wahoos Preliminary Roster 2019 Fort Myers Miracle Preliminary Roster

Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Pineda: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 70.0% strikes Home Runs: Cruz (1) Multi-Hit Games: Cruz (3-for-5, HR, 2B), Astudillo (2-for-2, 2 2Bs), Cron (2-for-3, 2B), Schoop (2-for-4, 2B), Buxton (2-for-4, 2B), Polanco (2-for-4) WPA of 0.1 or higher: Pineda .223, Astudillo .157, Buxton .128 WPA of -0.1 or lower: None For his efforts, Astudillo was immediately hit by a pitch in his next at-bat. Not cool. There were plenty of Twins making loud contact today. Nelson Cruz hit the first Twins home run of the season, a 427-foot blast that hit the facing of the second deck, in addition to two other hits. Byron Buxton had a two-run double which was the hardest hit ball of the game for the Twins at 111.6 mph. Both C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop also had extra-base hits. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1112435927559884801 But it was Astudillo who got the scoring started against Carlos Carrasco. In his last three outings against the Twins last season, Carrasco only surrendered three earned runs over 21 1/3 innings (1.27 ERA). Of course, this is a very different Twins lineup than they had in late-2018. Carrasco gave up six runs on 10 hits over 4 1/3 inning today. In all, the Twins had nine balls they hit with an exit velocity of 105 mph or harder. The first two games were a little tough to watch, but Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer are insanely good. Carrasco isn’t far behind those two, but I’m not certain any rotation will keep this Twins lineup down for long. The pitching staff is a much bigger area of concern, but what a series they just had. No, Cleveland’s current lineup doesn’t exactly invoke fear, but you still have to execute pitches. This Twins staff did a very good job at that this series. Michael Pineda was incredibly efficient in his first major league start since July 5, 2017 (more on that in a minute), Martin Perez also looked good in his Twins debut, Trevor Hildenberger had a scoreless appearance and Ryne Harper made his major league debut. Paint By Numbers Pitching Plan It’s been a great first three games. The Twins took the series against the team they’ll be fighting for the division all summer, and this was a big when you consider these teams won’t face each other again until June. Positives all around. If you want to leave it at that and not nitpick, feel free to just scroll on through this section. Michael Pineda threw 28 of his first 40 pitches were strikes, a rate of 70%, which is excellent. He faced the minimum through four innings and racked up five strikeouts. You couldn’t have really asked for a better start, so it’s blatantly obvious he was coming out of today’s game after four innings no matter what he did. Yes, this was Pineda’s first major league outing since 2017, but his arm has been recovered from Tommy John surgery for quite some time. He made four rehab appearances in the minor leagues last season, but a knee injury prevented him from making a late-season return. If there was any concern over his health, Pineda certainly wouldn’t have thrown a team-high 20 1/3 innings this spring. Martin Perez took over in the fifth inning with the Twins leading 3-0. He gave up a leadoff single and issued a one-out walk. That created the highest leverage situation we would see all game, according to the leverage index, but Perez managed to escape that inning unscathed. The stuff was every bit as electric as we saw in spring, as he topped out at 97.2 mph. While Perez’s stuff looked very good, he was nowhere near as sharp as Pineda had been. It took Perez 82 pitches to get through 3 2/3 innings. He struck out six, which is impressive, but he gave up three runs on five hits and three walks. Luckily the Twins had built up an 8-0 lead. Perez needed work, I get that, but I’m not a fan of a game plan that’s so rigid you can’t adjust it when your starting pitcher is cruising at the level that Pineda was. That kind of managing is on par with simply batting whoever is catching eighth everyday. Oh … that’s happening right now too. Anyway, the Twins tacked on five runs in the bottom of the fifth inning, relieving any potential for that move to look really bad in hindsight. I just really don’t like that level of a paint-by-numbers game plan. It appeared the Twins were willing to potentially sacrifice this game in order to keep Perez stretched out. As if that was every bit as important as winning this game. Kyle Gibson was pushed back to the No. 4 starter because he was a bit behind schedule in comparison to his rotation mates. That being the case, if you’re going to piggyback Perez with anyone, shouldn’t it have been Gibson? Or can’t Perez throw a simulated game? I dunno, it just all seems weird, but all’s well that ends well. Sire of Fort Myers Debuts Even with all these great performances, nobody had a better day than Ryne Harper. The 30-year-old veteran of the minor leagues finally made his major league debut. He switched his number from 70 to 19, which seems fitting because 2019 is a year he’ll never forget. Harper took over in the ninth with the Twins leading 9-3. Basically the perfect situation to work a guy into his first big league game. He didn’t show nearly as good command as he did down in spring training, walking a pair of batters, but he did spin in some nice curveballs and kept Cleveland off the board for his inning. He finished things off with a swinging strikeout. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1112458769093451776 The average person wouldn’t have pursued this dream as long as Ryne Harper. Most 29-year-old pitchers who struggle to crack 90 mph wouldn’t have spent most of their age 29 season pitching in Double A. Harper never gave up. It’s been an absolute pleasure getting to know his story and follow his journey. Postgame With Baldelli https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1112471199349563393 Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Next Three Games Tue at KC, 7:15 pm CT Wed at KC, 12:15 pm CT Fri at PHI, 6:05 pm CT Last Game CLE 2, MIN 1: Odorizzi Strikes Out 11, Wild Parker Surrenders Go-Ahead Run More From Twins Daily New Territory from the Twins Dugout The Next Minnesota Twins - 2019 Analyzing the Twins' 2019 Schedule

Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Odorizzi: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 62.0% strikes Home Runs: None Multi-Hit Games: None WPA of 0.1 or higher: Odorizzi .235, Buxton .206, Rogers .111 WPA of -0.1 or lower: Kepler -.237, Parker -.289, Cron -.472 Despite Odorizzi’s excellent effort, the Twins entered the bottom of the ninth trailing 2-1. Byron Buxton lifted what appeared to be a routine flyball out to lead off the inning, but it was misplayed and he ended up at second base. Max Kepler struck out and Jorge Polanco lined out to center field, allowing Buxton to advance to third base. Nelson Cruz was intentionally walked to bring up Eddie Rosario, creating a left-on-left matchup with Brand Hand on the mound. He worked a walk to load the bases, bringing C.J. Cron to the box. Cron took a massive hack at the first pitch, a fastball over the heart of the plate, but whiffed. He popped the next pitch up to short right. Game over. On Odorizzi Through the first three innings, Odorizzi was completely overwhelming Cleveland. He had a no-hitter going and six strikeouts already in his ledger. With two outs in the fourth inning, Odorizzi fell behind 3-0 to Hanley Ramirez, missed his spot and left a ball right over the middle of the plate. Ramirez did exactly what you’d expect a major league hitter to do, depositing the ball 416 feet away in the seats. Last season, there were plenty of instances where Odorizzi got off to a brilliant start but ended up watching it all fall to pieces as his outing progressed. Not today. Odorizzi was at 80 pitches through the first five innings, but he went out for the sixth, which also was the start of his third trip through the Cleveland lineup. That’s spelled doom for him in the past, but he got a bunt popout, then struck out both Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin to end his outing with an exclamation point. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1112096100440260608 Odorizzi had 16 swinging strikes on his 92 pitches and was untouchable in the upper third of the zone. Here’s the location of those swings and misses: Breaking Down the Bullpen Trevor May took over in the seventh, but he pitched to just two batters. After surrendering a single, Adalberto Mejia was called upon to pitch to a lefty, except Terry Francona countered that move by pinch hitting with a right-handed hitter, Jordan Luplow. All those chess moves ended in Mejia striking out Luplow on three pitches. That brought up Roberto Perez, who has a .724 OPS against lefties as opposed to a .602 mark against same-sided pitching. Mejia stayed in to face him and ended up getting him on strikes, as well. Not an entirely impressive string of managing decisions by Baldelli, in my opinion, but there’s certainly no arguing against the results. Even just beyond the numbers, is Mejia really the guy you want pitching in a tie game with the go-ahead run on base when you have a fresh bullpen? Interesting. Again, it worked perfectly, but … interesting. It’s only one outing, but Mejia getting off on the right foot is just another of the many great signs we’ve seen these first two games. This bullpen looks a lot better if Mejia can find his footing out there. Taylor Rogers came on for the eighth and did his Taylor Rogers thing of pitching a scoreless inning. Guy is automatic right now. With only 11 pitches today and an off day coming Monday, it’s entirely possible Rogers could pitch in every game of this first series. Maybe all these extra days off aren’t so bad. Blake Parker made his Twins debut in the ninth and had some control issues. He gave up a hard single to Carlos Santana, then allowed him to advance all the way to third thanks to a pair of wild pitches. He eventually scored the go-ahead run on a sacrifice fly. Just a gut punch of a way to give up the game-winning run. The Framing Factor And what of the guy behind the plate today, Mitch Garver? He had a very good day, here are all the called strikes and balls: On the Offense In the bottom of the fourth, Jorge Polanco hit a one-out triple and new Twins slugging designated hitter Nelson Cruz clobbered … an 86-foot dribbler between the mound and first base. Hey, whatever works. Polanco took off on contact and scored the game-tying run. That Polanco triple and Buxton’s “double” were the only two hits of the game for the Twins. Cruz was hit in the wrist by Trevor Bauer, who was pitching him up and in all game, but was able to stay in and finish the game. Postgame With Baldelli https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1112107604094795777 Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Next Three Games Sun vs. CLE, 1:10 pm CT Tue at KC, 7:15 pm CT Wed at KC, 12:15 pm CT Last Game MIN 2, CLE 0: Berrios Dominates, Sets Twins Opening Day Record for Ks More from Twins Daily Twins Daily 2019 Season Preview: The Minefield What to Expect From the Twins Newcomers to Start the Season Beginner's Luck? How Rookie Managers Typically Perform