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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. Mike Frasier Law
    Might be a little off topic, but this made me look at league-wide strikeout trends. I knew it had been increasing, but I thought this was amazing: year k% 2008 17.5% 2009 18.0% 2010 18.5% 2011 18.6% 2012 19.8% 2013 19.9% 2014 20.4% 2015 20.4% 2016 21.1%
  2. Mike Frasier Law
    And another Fangraphs article - from a fantasy baseball perspective - talking about Buxton and Sano. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/twin-mid-round-mancrushes-buxton-and-sano/
  3. Mike Frasier Law
    Fangraphs just published their ZiPS projections for the Twins: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/ These are completely computer based projections, so take them with a grain of salt. But, assuming the roster doesn't change at all, it projects a decent step forward in 2017.
  4. Mike Frasier Law
    It strikes fear into the hearts of ludefisk everywhere!
  5. Mike Frasier Law
    Um Ya Ya!
  6. Mike Frasier Law
    Where are you from (be as specific as you are comfortable): Grew up in SD, college in Northfield, law school at the U of M. Live in St Anthony with my lovely wife and two kids (three in May). What is your age (or age range, if you prefer): mid 30s How long have you been a Twins fan? forever What have a couple of your best Twins memories been? game 163 all of 2006 liriano, except his final start that year. I can still remember hearing his elbow pop from the stands that game. Who have some of your favorite players been? Dan Gladden (I too had a red mullet) http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/gladden1.JPG Santana Liriano Mauer Joe Nathan How long have you been reading Twins Daily (or were you following some writers before Twins Daily)? I believe I followed Seth over here. Reader from day 1. What brings you back to Twins Daily? How often do you stop by the site? I'm here most days for a bit. Great articles and pleasant discussions. It's just a great community.
  7. Mike Frasier Law
    Have you all checked MLBTR's Twins page yet?!?!
  8. Mike Frasier Law
    You need multiple sources before it's legitimate, right? Well... A dodgers fan posted this same rumor on Reddit. https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotatwins/comments/5hbkb5/dodger_fan_here_heard_we_might_be_trading_for/?st=iwhwpzz0&sh=a0090752 Bam. Two sources. Never mind that the Reddit post cites this thread as his source.
  9. Mike Frasier Law
    As far as you know, is it still looking like De Leon, one of Alvarez or Bellinger, and 2 others? Or are there any updates on that?
  10. Mike Frasier Law
    Man. I'm gone for 2 hours and this board goes to 22 pages? What did I miss? No way in hell am I going to read it all.
  11. Mike Frasier Law
    Ok jumping in late here, but if we get De Leon and Alvarez, I'm calling this a steal. Fangraphs says the following about Alvarez: The ease with which Yadier Alvarez delivers 100 mph fastballs is as unsettling as it is beautiful. Triple-digit fastballs are becoming more common but they usually involve significant visible effort. Alvarez throws 95-plus and looks like he’s settling down to take a nap. He’ll touch 101 and generally sits 96-99 and 94-97 later in starts. ... But this combination of body, delivery, arm strength and impact breaking ball is the stuff young aces are made of and the ceiling here is immense. I think this is one of the highest upside arms in the minor leagues.
  12. Mike Frasier Law
    the nine fastest home-to-second times on doubles. The four fastest home-to-third times on triples and six of the top ten. The fastest inside the park time ever recorded by Statcast. Yea, pretty cool
  13. Mike Frasier Law
    Done
  14. Mike Frasier Law
    These last 30 days have made our team look pretty legit. They actually have a positive run differential. 169 runs scored (second in baseball) 143 runs allowed (19th in baseball) In that time, we've had the 5th best offense in the AL (114 wRC+) 6th in the AL in HR (41) 2nd in AL in SB (22) 4th in bb/k at .48 I don't think it's a blip. I think it's our team finally hitting like they're supposed to. So I'm saying 41
  15. Mike Frasier Law
    Slumps happen to everyone. Looking at his peripherals, though, it looks like Mauer is way better than we've seen in a long time. His line drive % is at 31.5%. Career at 24.1%. League average is 20.7%. His soft hit % is 11.2% (in line with his career - league average is 19.1%) but his hard hit is at 37.1% - league average is 30.6%. So he's hitting the ball harder than he has in years, and he's making good contact by hitting line drives instead of ground balls. We haven't seen this guy since 2009 or 2010. Seems like he's got his eye back too: He's swinging at 19.5% of pitches out of the zone. He wa at 27.2% last year and 25% in 2014. League average 28.4% When he swings, he hits the ball: swings in the zone - 91.1% contact. Best mark since 2012. League average is 86% swings total - 86.3%. Best mark since 2012. League average is 78.3% Oh, and don't forget. He's walking 14.5% of the time. He's never done that before. He's striking out 15.9% of the time, which is his lowest mark since 2012. I'm just saying, he looks like a 5 WAR player again. Let's enjoy it.
  16. Mike Frasier Law
    This. Unless we are going to outspend everyone, we need to learn and take advantage of efficiencies better than everyone else. Otherwise, we're just hoping to strike gold.
  17. Mike Frasier Law
    For me, watching this team is infinitely more entertaining than watching the teams from the last few years. It sucks that it already feels like the season is irrelevant, but I still get excited to watch these players. Something exciting is going to happen when you have Sano, Park, Arcia, and Rosario in the lineup (maybe 10ks, maybe 5 hr!). Watching our young pitchers come up and fail, try again, and get better is exciting. I loved watching Berrios and Meyer (regardless of the outcomes of the game and setting aside mismanagement). I'm not saying I'm rooting for next year. I'm just happy to watch a young, developing, exciting (albeit bad) team instead of a mediocre team of older players.
  18. Mike Frasier Law
    Overall, he has a 2.0 bb/k ratio; far and away the best in the league. Second closest is Melky Cabrera at 1.5.
  19. Mike Frasier Law
    So 71% is average, 81% is above average, 90% is great, 95% is excellent. This is helpful context.
  20. Mike Frasier Law
    I was doing the same exercise yesterday. Steamer projects us to hit 173 hr next year. I was trying to find a way to get them to 197 (most since the dome era), and it didn't seem crazy. I needed to come up with 24 more than projections. Here's what I came up with: Player Steamer My projection Sano 32 36 park 20 26 Dozier 20 25 Plouffe 17 24 Rosario 13 13 Arcia 11 11 Buxton 11 11 Mauer 9 10 Escobar 8 9 Murphy 6 7 Suzuki 4 5 Vargas 3 3 Kepler 3 3 Santana 3 3 Nunez 2 2 ABW 1 0 Polanco 1 0 None of that seems crazy, right?
  21. Mike Frasier Law
    I can't wait to see him pitch against Park and Sano.
  22. Mike Frasier Law
    The Hardball Times is doing a series of in-depth positional case studies. Today they looked at Twins 3rd basemen. http://www.hardballtimes.com/positional-case-study-minnesota-twins-third-basemen/ Really a fascinating read, particularly considering the situation we're facing with Plouffe and Sano. It made me a little more understanding re: the Twins trying to keep Plouffe at 3b.
  23. Mike Frasier Law
    I think this explains a lot: Average pitch speeds: 2013/2014/2015 Fastball 92.3/92.0/90.7 http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/7450_P_FA_20150930.png
  24. Mike Frasier Law
    Maybe the question could be rephrased: Who will have the better 2016/rest of career (ignoring contracts): Morneau or Mauer? I think that's an interesting question. Morneau is 2 years older, but he certainly performed better in 2015 than Mauer. But 2014 and 2015 were the only years Morneau has performed better than Mauer. I'd rather have Mauer. I think a Mauer bounce back is more likely than Morneau staving off age and regression.
  25. Mike Frasier Law
    Dozier. MRI on his hip
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