whydidnt
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Everything posted by whydidnt
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Gibson for me. Of the high upside guys he seems to be the closest to breaking through. I think a lot of the love for Diamond is going to disappear this year. He just isn't a top of the rotation starter.
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How high would you go for Brandon McCarthy?
whydidnt replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Can I pat myself on the back for being closest? He just signed with Arizona for 2 years 15.5 million. Heck if the Twins had listened to me, maybe they could have had him for the 2/16 I proposed. I think he would have been a nice addition at 8/year, when you consider we had no problem giving that, or close to it to Pavano last year. -
How high would you go for Brandon McCarthy?
whydidnt replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I agree that he'll probably get 2 years, but I still think teams are going to be shy because of the injury track record. He's had serious shoulder injuries throughout his career and those are the one's that are the most difficult to overcome. I'm not saying a don't like the guy or that he wouldn't be an upgrade here, but I also think if you're going to invest 10+ million a year you want someone that you think has a good chance of making it through the season. -
How high would you go for Brandon McCarthy?
whydidnt replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I guess I'd be surprised if he got the kind of money most are floating around here. His track record of injuries is going to cause teams to pause on anything more than a year. 1 Year 8.5 or 2 yrs 16 should be pretty competitive. Haren has a much longer track record of success and fewer injuries and just got 1 -13 from the Nationals, I really can't see McCarthy approaching those numbers. -
I am thankful that the Twins are the only major sports franchise in town to win a championship in my lifetime. You would think that with all of the "big 4" sports in town, we would have more than the Twins 2 world series titles in the last 50 years. For the joy those two championships brought I will always be grateful. Also, Target field is a great place to enjoy a sunny day watching baseball!
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I have to go with Ruesse's line of thinking on Terry Ryan. He's my Twins Turkey of the year. Came in to "fix things" and the team only recorded 3 more wins despite much better luck/health. His mis-judgement on the quality of pitching is inexcusable. The lack of movement at the trade deadline seems to show it's more of the same. His conservative approach might suit a team willing to build slowly, but the Twins are no longer the small market team he treats them as. So far, a month and 1/2 into the 2012 off-season we've seen some talk, but little action to show he plans on making the changes necessary. The re-shuffling of the coaching staff after two of the worst seasons in franchise history is just one more example...
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The study was over 10 years, not just a year or two, and the end conclusion agrees with what many respected sites such as BP, Fangraphs, etc. have commented on from time to time which is that the Twins are slow to promote players.If you want to argue with facts feel free, but in this case the facts are what they are. Yes, the items you mention could impact how long a guy is in the minors, but the fact remains guys stay in the minors longer with the Twins than any other team in the league and it's not even close. Other teams also draft high schooler's etc. Like I mentioned, we can argue if it's a good thing or a bad thing, but it's still a thing, and seems like a strange thing to try and twist or debate. If all you want to do is sit here and say the Twins organization is always right and never makes a mistake, I wonder why you bother responding to a thread that asks questions such asthis? Seems your mind is already made up, even when statistical reality is presented to you. Further if you think the reason is the Twins draft more young or international players, how about showing some evidence to that fact. Otherwise, hard to say the article I referred to is meaningless. You could do that with ANY statistic, Mauer hit .300 last year, yea but maybe he only faced lousy pitchers, must be a meaningless stat since you didn't compare every pitcher he faced to the rest of what every hitter faced, see where this goes?
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I think this is a valid question and I also think that history shows the Twins are far more conservative than EVERY other team at promoting their players. Those that argue are ignoring the facts - see this study from Baseball Prospectus: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018. From 2001-2009 Twins led the major leagues in time spent in the minors among it's major leaguers... Twins Major Leaguers had an average of 200 more at bats in the minors than any other team in all of baseball. There were only 2 teams with more IP per pitcher in the minors than the Twins. This goes beyond a minor anomaly, it's a trend. Now we can argue about whether the Twins are right and everyone else is wrong all you want, but the fact remains the Twins are very conservative at promoting players. The occasional exception with a Mauer or Puckett is just that an exception. I happen to think that you can harm a players growth by promoting him too slowly, as much as you can by promoting him too quickly. Trout may have been an exception based upon his minor league performance, but it would have been a rare one. With the recent lack of success coming out of the Twins minor league organization, isn't it time to re-think things and find a better way? Now, can we put to rest the notion that the Twins don't promote their players slowly? Our do we add this to the statistical facts that so many want to ignore, like strikeouts don't matter as long as the pitcher gets outs?
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Seems crazy that Anderson still has a job when you consider how you lousy the pitching has been the last couple of years. He would have been the first to go if I was making the decisions. He doesn't make enough for one year's salary to make that big of difference.
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Definitely nothing earth shattering. I guess the disappointing thing is that many of us fans have recognized that the Twins MI and pitching philosophy is flawed for some time now, yet the team's management seems to have been caught off guard by these things, or simply disregarded them as unimportant. Because of that I don't know how much optimism we can have going forward. I hope that management takes the lessons from the last couple of years and learns from them, but...I think it would be much easier for a new GM/Manager combination to make the necessary changes. New guys don't have the same loyalties and bias' that guys that have been around the organization for years do. Not saying that Ryan/Gardenhire are bad at what they do, just that as broken as things are, it's time to change directions. I think the Pohlad's are going to want some sort of action when they see how much harder it is to sell season tickets this off-season. I hope they don't further cut the teams payroll, as that seems to be a race to bottom, and will make it even that much harder to get things turned around.
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I guess we have different views of success. For a team that has beliefs rooted in home grown talents that is an awful small list of impact players over a ten year period of time, and frankly, we've seen 2 months of decent play out of Plouffe and Revere, so I'm not ready to call either of those guys a success yet, the Twins didn't think much of Ramos and both Morneau and Mauer were quickly moved through the system. So that leaves Span from you list as an example to compare to Sano? I know you were just throwing names off the top of your head and there are probably others, but really it's not a very long list if you consider we are talking 10 years of time and an organization that prides itself on building from within.
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Except he's 10th in the league in OPS despite having 140+ more plate appearances than any of the others in the top 10, and he has been walked 18 more times than the next nearest guy in the league, I guess those walks are a result of pitchers pounding the strike zone constantly when pitching to him. He's NOT overmatched right now. He's doing very well. I'm not suggesting that he's ready for the majors, just that moving him up a level now would probably be the right thing for his development. What's the benefit to having him walk 15% of the time he's at the plate? How does that help his development? Machado's OPS at a similar level in 2011 was lower than Sano's, yet he was promoted to A+ that same year, after only 170 PA, so he is a good comparable. The arbitration clock won't start when he reaches Ft. Myers, either. The Twins have a history of slowly promoting guys in their system, with only a few exceptions, and it looks like Sano isn't going to be one of those exceptions. As we consider the Twins decisions at promoting players, I think we need to look at how poorly they have been at developing players over the last 5 years before we continue to give the benefit of the doubt to their decisions. The recent track record sucks and so I am disappointed when it seems to be "business as usual". I may jump off a bridge if I hear the Twins are working with Sano on going the other way...
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And guys like Machado and Harper are in the Majors at about the same age, and Mike Trout is a year older and an MVP candidate. We've heard about his prodigious talent since they signed him three years ago, some guys need to be pushed, and I think Sano is one of those players. Guys don't get promoted by never swinging the bat. The fact that his walk rate has doubled this year means that he DOES understand the strike zone, but is getting a lot of balls outside the zone. What is the harm in moving him up to the next level at this point?
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I tend to agree that taking pitchers who are only marginally effective in the NL and moving them to the AL usually ends poorly. If the Twins took a shot at him for 2 Mil, I'd be fine with that as long it didn't preclude them from bringing in another legitimate starter to lead the staff. The problem is they'd probably figure he fills a spot in the rotation and they'd be done, just like they did with Marquis this year. Our track record and bringing these sorts of guys in and getting decent production out of them is pretty bad. Pavano is the only guy in recent memory that has provided much, but he was coming from the AL. I know the difference in quality between the AL and NL isn't that huge, but it seems to make a big difference in fringe type guys like this.
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Fangraphs had an interesting article on this today. The author's take was that it wasn't a bad move because Betemit has been so bad in the field, and that even though the Orioles have been winning ugly, those wins still count, so they still have about a 20% of making the playoffs. Also indicated that Machado was the 18th best offensive player in the EL this year, so he hasn't totally been over matched. The EL is tough on hitters and Bowie, the Orioles affiliate, is the toughest on hitters in the leauge. If he falls on his face they can start him back at AAA next year and go from there. I personally would like to see the Twins be more aggressive in moving guys up like this from time to time. Not just to the Majors but also a level here or there in the minors. I know Sano's K rate is high and his average is mediocre in Beloit, but I still think that's due to some extent because nobody wants to pitch to him. Would have loved to see them move him to Ft. Myers this year to see how he did against better pitching. At some point we need to get him used to seeing decent breaking stuff.
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I propose a motion to ban using the cliche "pitch to contact"
whydidnt replied to nokomismod's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'll stop using the term as soon as the Twins stop utilizing the philosophy. It is relevant because it's a statistical fact that pitchers with that have a high ratio of strikeouts/walks perform better than those that don't AND those with a good ratio that strikeout a lot of players perform even better. The Twins have refused to acknowledge this for years, despite the fact that it's been proven over and over again. Even prior to the draft this year Ryan was quoted as saying he didn't care if they drafter strike out pitchers, he just wanted pitchers that can get outs. Sounds like a great theory, but the more times the ball is put in play the more times bad things can happen. The math proves it and the Twins ignoring that isn't going to change things. There are always going to be some guys that have sufficient command, sink etc. to pitch well despite a high strikeout rate, but the odds are stacked against that type of player. Why anyone would want to build their staff around guys who have to overcome not only the umpires, but also their own defense, as well as the luck of where the ball lands is beyond me. -
Burton, Perkins, and minor league prospects
whydidnt replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I really like the way Gardy has been mixing Burton and Perkins lately. Certainly makes more sense than saving the best guy for the 9th. I'd like to see them continue to manage this way. -
When you are comparing AA and AAA, what I've always felt is that elite "talent", like Mauer, Puckett, Hrbek, etc, skip AAA and end up in the show, while guys that aren't at that level benefit from the experience of AAA. I don't really see a huge gap between hitter's and pitchers, but the Twins have lacked so much in pitching talent over the last decade it may seem like that. Sad to say but there really isn't anyone at AA right now that you'd consider elite (or AAA for that matter) so the Twins top minor leaguers, like Parmalee and Hendricks stand to gain form the additional seasoning at AAA. We just shouldn't count on those guys being anything more than run of the mill major leaguers.
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Agreed.It's too subjective to try and really quantify a net positive or negative from Revere's defense in RF. Bottom line is it is still extremely silly to put him in right and Willingham in left, especially at Target field. He has gotten on base at a higher rate than I expected so far, and that makes him an ok starter. He's a "fun" player to watch, and I'm glad he's holding his own. I just would love to see the Twins maximize his defensive value by playing him in left or center. We often talk about out it's only a few runs difference, but this team doesn't have any margin for error.
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Yes, the upper levels of the minors is a barren wasteland for the Twins. And I'm starting to get concerned about Ft. Myers too. The Twins have had bad luck, bad drafts and bad development over the last few years and it's caught up to them. I was glad to see they changed draft strategy this year, but I really don't think drafting a bunch of college relievers is a great strategy though either. I guess we will see over the next 5 years if I'm right or not.
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Bah, they aren't in it and won't be in this year. If the front office is once again delusional, as they were last year, they should all be fired. This team isn't competing for anything with that starting rotation. The sooner they get into rebuilding mode the better. I don't really care about the Gray vs. Oliveros decision, but I do care if the Twins really think they can get back in this.
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I don't really see a big comparison. Kendall never showed anywhere near the power Mauer has in the past. He just isn't in the same class of player as Mauer. Mauer's value comes from being a catcher that can hit, a rare commodity. If you don't have him catch he's just not as valuable. Even with all the hand wringing this year about his offense, I think his OPS is in the top 2 or 3 in the league for catchers. He's still a good offensive player. I just think he's miscast as a #3 hitter and that magnifies his small flaws.
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Report: Blue Jays Interested in Morneau (or Willingham?)
whydidnt replied to StormJH1's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Depends on what you could get. Could they get a package that includes Snider, Lind and a guy like Snydergard who's sowing well in high A for Mourneau and ??. Toronto has obviously soured on Lind and Snider and they would both fill a need with the Twins and cost considerably less than Mourneau. Snyergard is a highly regarded prospect. -
I never understood why they cut him and then traded for Rizzotto. Neither would be consider much of a prospect, but Pearce seemed to have a much better track record. I always thought maybe there was some sort of pre agreement that they would let him go if he didn't make the team out of camp or something. I don't understand why you would let a more talented guy go because of a minor injury. He did have a nice game the other night but I doubt he's ever going to turn into a much of a contributor anyway. The Twins do seem particularly sensitive to a players perceivd attitude in my opinion though.
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I would imagine when you don't have an "out pitch" this happens more frequently. The Twins pitchers the last couple of years have been somewhat lacking in those types of pitches.
