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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to draft well. They need to use the international market well. It looks like they drafted well last year. They have some good players coming through from the international market. While they certainly had a few poor drafts while they were on top of the AL Central, I don't think there is any reason to believe that they do a poor job of drafting players.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think they should spend the money in the first round. However, there is no way to look at any draft previous to last year for comparison. The idea of saving money is to be able to sign a guy in the second who may have fallen 10 spots because teams knew they couldn't meet his contract demands because of the cap and slot. There was no cap before last year. The comparison doesn't work. I suppose if the three teams before the Twins all sign guys expected to use all of the slot, the Twins might consider the strategy. They would do so knowing that the three teams above them wouldn't have the flexibility. If any do draft a guy in order to save, the Twins can't follow and hope that two guys drop due to contract demands.
  3. jorgenswest
    Health has been Correia's best skill. Many believe the best predictor of future injuries is previous injuries. Unlike many of the free agent options, Correia has been healthy. With a career ERA- of 114 (an adjusted 14% worse than league average - median starter is usually around 102-103), he has performed like a #4 starter on a .500 team over his career. He isn't exciting. He isn't close to an ace. Given the last two years, the Twins need someone they can count on to take the ball every 5th day while keeping them in the majority of games. The next step is for the Twins to develop 5 guys who are better and move him to a long relief/6th starter role next year.
  4. jorgenswest
    Many remember Puckett as a first round draft choice in 1982. They forget he was a January draft choice. Players in that draft rarely made it to the majors. The 26 players drafted in the first round in that draft combined for a 50.1 WAR. Kirby contributed 50.8 of that 50.1. None of the three other players that made to the majors posted a positive career WAR.
  5. jorgenswest
    This article at Puckett's Pond was written a year ago, but seems just as relevant today. What type of player should the Twins draft? - Puckett's Pond - A Minnesota Twins Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More High school pitchers are the most risky, least likely to reach the majors and take the longest to get there. However, if they make it they do relatively well. College hitters look to be the safest bet. Do we take Bryant if he is available? Do we take Stewart knowing that many high pick high school pitchers never make it? Is the risk worth it? According to this article most aces come from high picks. 2013 MLB Draft: Where have past ace pitchers been drafted? - The Crawfish Boxes
  6. jorgenswest
    So you can't really set the run scoring environment for the context of which hitter is at the plate since it also reduces the Brewers overall run scoring environment. With Florimon batting and his high ground ball tendency I think the break even point changes. He is much less likely to hit a sacrifice fly and more likely to hit the ball on the ground keeping the runner at third or hitting into a double play.
  7. jorgenswest
    How did you set the run scoring environment given the next three hitters were Florimon, Carroll and Dozier? I would think it must be different than if Mauer was batting followed by Willingham and Morneau. Looking the their runs created per game, it probably is at least a 3 run difference between the two trios. I am not sure how the run scoring environment correlates to runs created. Wouldn't using a lower run scoring environment also decrease the break even point?
  8. jorgenswest
    John, Are the success percentages tied to the run scoring environment? Should they be? Are the percentages you presented tied to the current run scoring environment? We certainly are in a lower run scoring environment now than a handful of years ago. I would think that the steal becomes less risky as the chance of driving in the run becomes lower. If true, then the success percentages not only change by era but also game to game, pitcher to pitcher, batter to batter and park to park. If Florimon, Carroll and Dozier are the next batters due up it seems like a less risky proposition than if it were Mauer, Willingham and Morneau.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think Bush is a good comp. I do wonder if his career would be different today. He played in an era with 11 (and some 10) man pitching staffs. Benches today may not be deep enough for guys in his role. You certainly couldn't have a Bush and a Larkin. Parmelee is limited to a corner. He needs to hit well enough to start to keep a place on a major league roster. Players on today's benches need more position flexibility.
  10. jorgenswest
    I do agree that Washington as a model. They had prolonged struggle and worked their way out. The earlier runs by the Twins are also model with at least three years of 70 or less wins. I will leave this discussion with a question that I hope to study. How do teams go from prolonged losing (3 years+) to success (or continued failure)? It will be easy to look at age and determine if the teams went young or added veterans. It will be easy to see free agent acquisitions. I wonder how many occurrences of a three year stretch of 70 or less wins the Twins are likely to put up have occurred in the era of free agency. The Twins have two other such streaks.
  11. jorgenswest
    Capps became a free agent because he was non tendered. He was under team control, but a last place team released him. The Giants reached success because of their prospects and in spite of giving bad contracts to Zito and Rowand. It is hard to believe this has to be argued. Jackson... I argued earlier about him. Read the post. Washington added him after 2011. They were a .500 team. The foundation was set. I would advocate the same for the Twins. Build the foundation and then sign free agents. My suggested approach... Build the system. Meanwhile go young in the majors. Once the foundation is ready add free agents. The 1987-1991 run was built on the foundation of very young teams in 1981-1984. The 2002-2010 was built on the foundation of very young teams in 1999-2000. Compare the 1998 roster with the 1999. Look at the contrast in ages and direction by the front office. There is only one way out of this hole. The Twins can't buy there way out.
  12. jorgenswest
    No. Build the foundation and then add with free agency. Winning will take care of the extra funds needed.
  13. jorgenswest
    Wow. I will be clearer. You argued that the Twins need to sign pitchers like Washington (who signed Capps, Hernandez and Marquis). Isn't that exactly who the Twins have signed? That Washington was able to give Capps a cheap contract following a season with an ERA of 5.96 is exactly what the Twins do. He had a career half season and they found someone dumb enough to give up a good prospect. I really don't think these are the kinds of signings you are advocating for the Twins. In all cases mentioned these teams turned themselves around with great prospects. That should be the Twins sole focus.
  14. jorgenswest
    I concede. As soon as the Twins have young guys ready like Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval, Wilson, and Romo ready to go they can open the bank.
  15. jorgenswest
    Missed the Jason Werth signing as I looked at pitchers, though I don't think many would say that was a good signing. I saw Capps and his 5.96 ERA prior to signing and inexpensive contract. Do you want the Twins to sign more guys like Capps prior to 2010? Is he their best example of who he Twins need to look for in a free agent pitcher? So I guess if only the Twins would sign guys like Hernandez, Marquis and Capps they can return to a competitive team like Washington. As for the Braves, do I really need to point out how different their roster was following the 2008 season? Look at all the guys 24-28 on that roster already successful in the majors. If you think the 2012 Twins are a comp to that team, then you are correct... The Twins are closer than I think.
  16. jorgenswest
    St. Louis and Atlanta are not building from 65 win teams and haven't been. They never let their farm system deplete like the Twins prior to 2011. Washington did have some very poor years and went young. I found two free agent pitcher signings in that range. They signed Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis. Sounds like the Twins to me. They did sign Edwin Jackson and trade for Gio Gonzalez prior to 2012 but they already had a foundation of a .500 team at that point.
  17. jorgenswest
    I don't think it would have been wise to commit to any pitcher a large on contract in 2015. The likelihood is too great that they will not be effective or injured in the third year. Once it narrows down to the guys willing to sign for one or two years, the player still has to choose to sign with the Twins and pitch in front of their poor defense. The Twins have had two successful runs in the last thirty years. In both cases they went very young first 1981-1982 and 1999-2000 and built from there. Look at the cycle from 1993-1998 to see how trying to do both worked out. In fact with the signings of old guys like Willingham, Doumit, Carroll and Correia, I would suggest that are trying to be both competitive while rebuilding. They aren't doing it very well. I would prefer they dump and go young.
  18. jorgenswest
    The problem with doing both is long term commitments can conflict with the arrival of youth. If you are the Yankees, this isn't a problem. Just absorb the salaries and let go of older players that become liabilities. If you are the Twins or most teams, you end up with declining players in the third or later year of their contract with commitments too large to throw them to the side. Teams that do this end up in a cycle of mediocrity. Far better to have a focused plan and direction and go all in towards that goal.
  19. jorgenswest
    Free agency isn't the route to long term success. Signing an over 30 guy to a multiyear almost guarantees being stuck with the decline phase of the player. One year or even two year guys often are not very good to begin with or are already in decline. Someone has probably done the study, but it sure seems like the majority of last winters bargains are struggling. The route to long term success is to develop pitching from within. Adding young pitchers like Meyer, May and even Worley is a step in that direction.
  20. jorgenswest
    In the major league context OPS stabilizes at 500 plate appearance. The increased variability of AAA likely means that number is greater. He has 107 plate appearances this year. That isn't near enough to believe that he changed from the player we saw last year. He has nearly 1500 AAA plate appearances and 472 major league plate appearances that point to an OPS in the majors of somewhere a little above 700. His range and good arm point to RF as his best position. There would likely be some drop in range if he were to be the Twins regular CF. So, yes, the Twins can call up Thomas. They would be fools to think he can perform much better than he has in his previous shots in the majors.
  21. jorgenswest
    There have been a lot of new measures in the last decade. Many help frame the game of baseball in new ways. WPA - Win Probability Added tries to measures a players impact on winning games. Earlier this week Mike Trout hit for the cycle and stole a base. His WPA for the game was -0.012. His performance that day decreased the probability his team would win the game. Jose Bautista posted a WPA of over 1 in his two homeruns walk off performance earlier this week. I am not sure what that means, but the Blue Jays sure could use two wins for one given their rough start. still interested? Great Moments in Numerical Oddities: Mike Trout?s Zero Hour | Getting Blanked | Blogs | theScore.com
  22. jorgenswest
    On Borbon... The Twins could have tried to work a deal with the Rangers before he was waived. I think they had seven days to make a deal once DFA'd and before waivers. Once waived the Cubs had priority.
  23. jorgenswest
    I wonder about the 111 pitches also. However, keeping him in the minors leads to much less stressful innings. Lineups like the Tigers are going to put much greater stress on an arm coming off surgery. All innings and all pitches are not equivalent.
  24. jorgenswest
    At some point Hicks or Ramirez will go dtd or be sent down and they will need a space on the 40 to move up Clete Thomas. Prepare you arguments for 100+ replies to losing Chris Colabello, Sam Deduno or PJ Walters. Whose turn is it to play the attitude card when one of them go?
  25. jorgenswest
    He is playing today.
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