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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    As long as Worley is out of options and has a tenuous spot on the roster, he has no trade value. The Twins might be able to get a similar out of options player for Worley. I think the A's will keep him unless they get an offer of real prospects. They don't need players on the fringe of another teams 25 and 40 man roster. They certainly don't need multiple fringe players.
  2. jorgenswest
    There are probably guys with less upside on the 40. He may have a Kevin Correia career in front him.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins don't need another poor defender. The defense in the outfield, third base and catcher will be among the worst in the league.
  4. jorgenswest
    Beane trades starters for starting pitching prospects. They are the best currency in baseball. He will find bullpen pieces without giving up prospects. He will piece together a lineup of role and platoon players. On the current roster... Mulder to Haren to Anderson Cahill to Parker Gutierrez to Malone He will seek the best starting pitching prospect he can get. His staff may be particularly good at identifying which prospects will carry success into the majors. I would be vary cautious about trading any starting prospect for Anderson.
  5. jorgenswest
    I really think that Suzuki would be signed if he were excellent or even above average behind the plate. http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php Catchers who are good framers help keep runners off the base in two ways. They get more strikes and with the bigger strike zone, batters have to swing at pitches on the edges. Good framers in the news changing teams today. Poor framers seeking jobs. Teams don't agree on the impact of this data. The Twins appear to be on the side that it has little impact on their pitching and runs scored.
  6. jorgenswest
    We need to pass on Buck. He is a very poor receiver. While Doumit had poorer framing numbers per game, Buck gave up the most runs due to pitch framimg in 2013. He was also near the bottom in 2009, 2010 and 2011. His below average 2012 was his best year. Good defensive catchers are changing teams quickly. It will take a team like the a Twins to give Buck another shot.
  7. jorgenswest
    The A's are a better situation. They have a better defense and better team overall. It is a pitcher's park. It would have taken more than 2/22 to get him on the a Twins. Maybe 3/30. I think it was an extra year that brought Hughes and Nolasco the Twins way.
  8. jorgenswest
    For some reason Correia outperformed peripherals the previous two seasons. Part of it is the skill of holding runners on base. He also pitches as well or better with runners on base. Is it a skill or luck? The FIP variants side with luck. Maybe it is. Maybe it is the skill of pitching from the stretch. Maybe his ability to work quickly keeps the defense sharp. Correia is certainly worthy of a spot on a major league staff.
  9. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the memories. The Met would go absolutely quiet in anticipation whenever he came to the plate.
  10. jorgenswest
    Colabello will be squeezed from both sides. Mauer is a long term block at 1B. Vargas and Hicks need time at AA and AAA. ... or he needs to hit like David Ortiz. Otherwise there is no room on a 3-4 man bench for a guy without a position.
  11. jorgenswest
    Defense at catcher, outfield and third base may be the worst in the league. As as we rebuild our rotation, I hope the next step is to put a defense behind them that will give them a chance.
  12. jorgenswest
    Did the Twins tender Duensing? I think December 2 is the deadline. I am uncertain about dates with a player going to arbitration.
  13. jorgenswest
    I like a Correia. I think he has been well worth his small contract. I also think it will be a good sign when he takes the 6th starter/bullpen role this year.
  14. jorgenswest
    The extra year may be what brought him to the Twins. He is young enough that the third year won't matter. In fact 8 million in 2016 won't buy 1 WAR.
  15. jorgenswest
    Is neither a choice? I certainly don't want the Twins to sign Arroyo for the little time he has left as an effective pitcher. Steamer projects him with less WAR than Deduno (a pitcher without options the a Twins might have to DFA). Hughes is young but projects similarly to the guys the three Twin starters out of option. Is it wise to give him a short contract while DFAing similar pitchers with longer service time? Sign big or sign no one.
  16. jorgenswest
    It doesn't matter what these pitchers did last year. It matters what they can be reasonably expected to do next year. Is is it reasonable to project a Nolasco as a number three starter on a playoff team? Maybe not. I am not sure that the other pitchers listed above would project better. It really even takes more than an averaged projection. A guy like Jimenez might have a 40% chance of being very good and a 60% chance of being awful. His steamer projection may blend that somewhere in the middle. Any team considering signing him would be irresponsible to project based on 2013 only as they assess how he might fit in a playoff rotation.
  17. jorgenswest
    Is this just using 2013 data? Shouldn't the Twins care more about projecting 2014? I would guess any projection method would use the last three years while factoring in age. If the analysis was projection based, would the conclusion be the same? The only projections I have seen are from steamer. Nolasco is projected for 2.6, Garza 2.3, Jimenez 2.1 and Santana 1.8 WAR.
  18. jorgenswest
    I agree with the addition significantly better. However, the Twins must be confident that the pitcher is better over the next several years. The pitcher needs to have the upside of age or be projected for over 3 WAR for next year. They can't sign a guy like a Pelfrey, Capuano or Arroyo. While they might make a one win difference next year, it isn't enough. This is the kind of decision that keeps teams in a cycle of mediocrity.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think Hughes has more upside than Worley, Deduno and Diamond. Looking at his career, I may be wrong. I may be seeing him as the prospect he was once long ago. Signing him and needing to DFA one or two of the above may be a mistake. It will cost them in dollars and more importantly service time.
  20. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the perspective. Just a real question. Wouldn't the SIERA table change for every season? If so, I am not sure how you would put multiple years or career numbers in the same table. In any case, his numbers aren't good whatever the classification. If the Twins sign one more starter, they will likely need to DFA one or two of Deduno, Worley and Diamond. Given his age, Deduno better have a strong healthy spring. Deduno has some upside and service time. If another signing pushes him out, it had better be for a top of the rotation guy like Garza or younger guy with upside left like Hughes.
  21. jorgenswest
    It will be a good sign when they don't have space on the roster for the Diamonds or Dedunos. The Twins just need to make sure they are not giving the spots to marginal or decline phase pitchers that don't have upside or years of control. Sign big or sign no one.
  22. jorgenswest
    Worley, Diamond and Deduno are out of options. It is the 25 man or DFA. Any trade would be a sell low and the return would be little to nothing. Their lack of option will hurt any potential return. I believe the others can and will be optioned.
  23. jorgenswest
    Article/Interview with Ryan Hanigan and catcher defense http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/63855/qa-ryan-hanigan-on-the-art-of-pitch-framing
  24. jorgenswest
    Who is more likely to perform above league average as a starting pitcher? Does Pelfrey win if he gives mediocre performance and Baker doesn't pitch due to injury? With guys like Baker and Santana, they will either pitch well or be injured.
  25. jorgenswest
    Phil Hughes' age and splits give him upside. Signing another starter probably means at least one of Diamond, Deduno or Worley be DFA'd. I wouldn't do that for a Capuano, Arroyo, Pelfrey or Floyd. With Hughes who will be 27 opening day it is different. He is younger than Deduno, Diamonds age and a year older than Worley. They do need to get 2 year + 1 option on the deal so that they can profit from any upside. Sign big or sign no one.
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