jorgenswest

That's reasonable as long as the same mistrust is placed on batting average, ERA and other commonly used measures. Numbers that can be trusted and used more confidently in comparing a skill or looking for a change in skill are strike out rate, walk rate, ground ball rate and fly ball rate. Projection systems use at least 3 years to project offensive or pitching performance. The same would be said about projecting defense.

The Twins extended Span through his age 31 season. The Twins already have that team control with Dozier. It isn't a good comp unless the ages are the same. Two guys that started at a similar are Donaldson and Carpenter. They have career OPS+ of 125 (far better than Dozier's best single season). Kipnis is a year younger on the path and has a career OPS+ of 109. All have space for decline. Dozier has a career OPS+ of 98. There is no space for the decline. Shouldn't they at least wait until the career number look closer to 110 in OPS+? The best path is to sell high by age 30 and let someone else buy the decline. His contract will be easier to trade if it does not include age 32 or 33 seasons. They must not extend now and buy a free agency year. Span is not a good comp. They didn't commit to Span's age 32 season and even age 31 was an option.

Paulino will likely be a back up at AAA or AA if anything. He has 40 AAA at bats in which he posted a .433 OPS. He is 25.

At SS they need to use the guy with the better glove. If it is Escobar, then Santana can fill a need in CF. If Santana, Escobar will get plenty of at bats in the utility role.

I hope the plan is to have the best 5 pitchers in the starting rotation regardless of contract status. If Gibson, Meyer and May show they are better than Pelfrey, Nolasco and Milone, then they need to be in the 5. Milone can be optioned. Pelfrey and Nolasco need to earn a spot in the pen also. If Tonkin or Burdi or Graham or Oliveros show they are better, they need the spot. The Twins can't afford to take anything but the best 12 north this spring.

Great discussion and starter. If you didn't follow it, check it out. Nothing has changed in Dozier's status in the short time since that discussion slowed.

Batting average and a ERA aren't very good stats and do a poor job of projecting the future taken in one year lumps. They are not very useful in describing a player's skill in the span of one year. They do describe past performance. The same can be said about UZR and DRS. Those same measures in three years have more meaning in terms of skill. Trout is on the extreme end of change. The following factors may have come in play. His stolen bases dropped significantly. His strike outs increased significantly. Was there something underlying effecting his speed or reactions? Players often outgrow shortstop physically. Is it also true in CF? Bourjos and his 450 innings in CF all landed on Trout who had previously played LF with Bourjos in center. Could that have been factor in the variation? Too often other commonly used measures that also vary greatly are used in describing a player's skill. Many of them taken in one year blocks have no significant meaning in describing a skill. Taken in three years, it looks like a Trout is a solid CF. Is he trending down? The Angels ought to be paying attention, but they should not be jumping to a conclusion. On the Twins front, Plouffe had his best year in terms of defensive measures. Has he improved? Maybe. He had little experience at 3B and his reactions and footwork must have improved with experience. One year of improved numbers shouldn't be used in an argument that his skill has changed. It isn't enough sample. It wouldn't be for ERA or batting average either.

Simple even/odd correlation tests can be used to measure variability year to year of any stat. It was argued that we shouldn't trust a metric because a single player had a significant yearly change. A correlation test will take a group of players and look for yearly change rather than a single case. As a group, DRS is more stable year to year than batting average or a ERA. Don't trust UZR or DRS? That's only reasonable if many other measures commonly cited are equally trusted? There are several that have been done. http://www.billjamesonline.com/how_well_do_advanced_defensive_statistics_correlate/

Would the same statement be made when a player's batting average goes from .260 to .159 or a pitcher's ERA goes from 3.52 to 5.38? As far as year to year reliability, DRS and UZR have been shown to be more reliable than ERA and batting average.

His trade value was established as Sam Fuld last summer. If anything it has gone down with his performance in Minnesota. I don't think that adds much to any deal. Keep him. Give him a chance to win a job in spring. Otherwise he is in AAA preparing for the certain opportunity that will present itself in season. Guys with options have value to the ends of the roster.

I believe Milone can still be optioned. He certainly would be a more ready option in AAA than a guy like Kris Johnson last year. He shows he is one of the best 12 in the spring or he goes to AAA and is available when needed.

The arbitration to Nunez might work out. He may be needed if Plouffe is not ready following surgery. The Twins anticipate he will be ready, but they don't always get that piece right. If all are healthy, he has a better chance of going unclaimed with the arb1 salary. They can stash him in AAA giving them a veteran option if someone were to get hurt. If he is claimed, someone else pays the arbitration award. Offering arbitration gives them a little bit of insurance and depth. It should not mean that he is slated for the 25.

I am sure you are correct. Last year the Twins had one of the oldest pitching staffs in the AL. The number of innings from 25 and under was near the bottom. Those veterans gave them near bottom performance from the pen and rotation. Is a long term solution in the plan? Ryan's solution is to fill their bullpen with guys in their 30s in Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Pelfrey and Stauffer. Perkins is the only one of the 5 that would make any roster.

To add... Nunez had options left. They could have sent him to AAA to develop. They not only took him off the 25, they took him off the 40! That move emphasizes their lack of confidence that he would ever be a useful major league player.

Neil Allen was a starter in the minors. He hit the majors at 21 as a reliever mixing in 5 starts in 50 appearances. After closing for a few seasons, he returned to the starting rotation at 25 with the Cardinals. I wonder how that experience will influence him as a coach. I would hope he would see it as a positive and be open to the idea of Meyer or May in a similar role. A bullpen including decline phase players in Stauffer, Pelfrey, Duensing and Fien does nothing to build this team long term. I would rather see that opportunity go to Tonkin, Oliveros, Pressly, May, Meyer, Graham or maybe even Achter. If any off those guys develop, the Twins have a piece of the future.

I won't be opposed until he makes the roster in favor of Tonkin. There are very few people left who would call a Target Field a pitching friendly park. It was number 3 in park factor according to runs last year. Number 1 in the AL. Every element of offense was given a boost in Target Field. One year isn't enough to judge a park. The usual standard is three years. The two years previous it ranked 10 and 12. Target Field did look like a pitching friendly park in its inaugural season. That impression created the first season lingers in a few minds.

It may be his last chance to be a regular CF, but he has demonstrated skills that can help a major league team. He can hit left handed pitching. He would be an above average defender on a corner. He is adequate in CF. Some team will give him a role platooning in RF with a guy that doesn't hit left handed pitching well and is limited defensively. His skills play well on a bench. Defensive replacement, pinch hitter against a LOOGY, pinch running and a platoon option on a corner. I would give him two more months to see if he can hit righties well enough to be a regular CF. Meanwhile Rosario is the AAA CF and Buxton is the AA CF. On June 1 if either is dominating while Hicks is struggling, they come up and take over and Hicks slides into a bench role and start him on a corner against lefties.

The debate about the 12 man pitching staff would be another thread. Assuming they will need 12 and at times 13, that 4th bench spot probably needs to be one with the roster flexibility of options. Possible 4 man bench mixes Fryer, Escobar, Nunez and Schafer On the good side, they have pinch runners. Fryer must be a good defender or I am not sure how he gets to the majors. Escobar has a solid glove at three infield positions. Schafer has an average glove in the corners and can play a marginal CF. On the other hand, no team would worry about the threat of any of them pinch hitting. All four are out of options. If they need a 13th pitcher, someone is DFA'd or they move Arcia, Vargas or Santana. Is there a better mix? It seems like Nunez doesn't offer anything that stands out from the others. Schafer is the better pinch running option and better defensive replacement for Hunter or Arcia. Escobar is the better glove in the infield. Nunez doesn't play 2B. He is the best right handed bat of the four. If that is his role, is he the best option in the organization to be the bench bat? What about Pinto? If he takes Fryer's spot, he also gives them a more legitimate bench bat. He has options, but they can't option the back up catcher so they still have the same flexibility problem. He also may not be skilled enough to play catcher in any significant role. Pinto brings more to that group as a bench bat. He can be optioned. If he shows he is an adequate catcher, they can DFA Fryer and add a young player in June who is dominating AA or AAA. Nunez or Fryer? Fryer adds a solid glove to the mix. Nunez wouldn't be my first choice among Schafer, Escobar or Pinto as a pinch runner, pinch batter or defensive replacement. I would go with Escobar, Schafer, Pinto and Fryer. The howling about a third catcher can continue.

If he is in AAA , it needs to based on his inability to pitch for the reasons you stated. If he is among the best 12, he needs to be in the majors. Service time should not matter when they have team control to his 30s.

He is too old to worry about service time. He has more than enough time in AAA. The best step in his development is the major leagues. He doesn't need to be lights out in spring training. He needs to be healthy and among the best 12.

Hicks is a useful player. He has a good arm. His acceptable CF play would be a plus on a corner. He had an OBP over 340. His career OPS against lefties is .758 (792 last year). He is young and will get better even without fixing. He could platoon with Arcia right now and be valuable.

The Yankees released Nunez in favor of Solarte and Anna. They DFA'd him even though he had an option left. They said it was because they needed someone who could play 2B. Nunez is a 3B/LF. He isn't a utility. With his arb1 salary, he would probably go unclaimed when DFA'd in late March. Stash him in AAA and call on him if Plouffe is injured. Use him in April if Plouffe isn't ready to start season following surgery. He offers more bat at 3B than Punto and his arb1 salary may make someone hesitate to claim him when DFA'd.

2014 fWAR of Twin starters Hughes 6.1 Santana 2.8 Gibson 2.5 Nolasco 1.2 May/Milone/Pelfrey - The Royals 5 starters combined for 12.5 fWAR. Their pitching and defense held opponents to 624 runs (4th). The Twins were last in the AL at 777. It seems reasonable that the Twins have put together a rotation that contributes 12.5 WAR next year. How close can they come to matching the Royal defense?

Meyer has 40 starts in AAA and AA. Compare that to Ventura or Duffy or Richards or Sale or Zimmerman or Cueto or ... Meyer has 27 starts in AAA and counting. Some teams would have had him in the rotation after half season at that level. The only possible conclusion is that the Twins don't see him as a good starter and are unwilling to invest starts in a future back end of the rotation guy. If they see otherwise, they need to make a spot for him now. They same can be said for May. This team will continue its cycle of mediocrity if they can not acquire, develop and invest playing time into their own young talent. The signing of Willingham followed by Hunter, the string of starters beginning with Correia, Doumit followed by Suzuki have helped them approach mediocre. It won't help them develop the next team that wins a playoff series. That help must come from within.

The only way out of mediocrity is to develop starting pitching. That takes talent and opportunity. The Twins front office at this point must not see much talent or isn't willing to risk the chance that their struggle may cost a few games. Meyer is at an age where he is close to peak velocity. He will spend that time in the minors. May likely won't be given enough starts to develop. Viola and Radke struggled for two years without being sent down. Today's Twins would have returned Santana after a few months of awful pitching his rookie year. The new stadium need people In the seats. The Twins have a better chance of filling those seats short term by giving the illusion of being competitive into July. The short term gains accomplished by filling with decline phase veterans has a cost on the long term solution.