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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    They needed to go with young arms and let them grow. They would rather rid the certain mediocrity (or worse) from a veteran than give a long look to a young bullpen arm. They need to invest in that upside instead of continuing to cycle through cheap veterans. The old way of building a bullpen hasn't worked since his return. The bullpens of 2012-2014 were among the worst in baseball. At some point we have to stop thinking that Ryan has the ability to put together a good bullpen on the cheap.
  2. jorgenswest
    Ten teams make the playoffs. It is hard to be a top ten team without top ten talent. It really should be top 50 on starting pitching. Hughes should qualify. No one else would.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins might find better solutions than Nunez and Robinson among those DFA'd. Sounds like Nunez doesn't have the ability to defend anywhere. The Yankees came to that conclusion a year ago. If he is only a bat, wouldn't there be better options among those DFA'd? Maybe the Twins can hit on a Sam Fuld type for the fourth OF again. They should be looking for bullpen upgrades among the DFA's also.
  4. jorgenswest
    How about strike outs instead of xFIP? Let's just look at inning 7-9 and throw out the middle relievers coming in after those short starts. The Twins late inning relievers were 30th last year and it was even close. Even an improvement of 10% from 321 to 353 would keep them with a rank of 30. They ranked 19th in 2013 and 30th in 2012. The bullpen Ryan built for the team last year performed among the league's worst if not the worst. That includes the performance of the late inning guys. They performed poorly last year. They haven't performed well since Ryan returned. Maybe it is not possible to cobble together a cheap bullpen in the current era that Ryan has reentered. Maybe good bullpens are built on strong young arms rather than cast off veterans.
  5. jorgenswest
    There is no dispute that the Twins need d to address the outfield this winter. Willingham was gone. Santana was moving to shortstop. Only Arcia looked like he would be a given in one of the three spots. The Twins chose to bring in Torii Hunter and Shane Robinson. The Hunter move meant moving Arcia to a new position. It guaranteed that the defense in the corners would continue to be near league bottom. It did give than a right handed bat to go with Plouffe and Dozier. They took on the real risk of significant decline with that bat. They hoped on his ability to mentor. They could have pursued Colby Rasmus. He ended up signing a one year deal for 8 million. Rasmus comes with the risk of a very up and down career. Rasmus' ability to play CF would have lessened the need for a defense only Shane Robinson. An additional outfielder that might be used as a bench bat could have been pursued. Arcia, Schafer and Hunter with Robinson on the bench Schafer, Rasmus and Arcia with a better bat on the bench and possibly 2 million dollars more to spend. Did Ryan make the right call for the OF? Hunter's bat and mentoring ability is going to have to make up for a significant drop in defense.
  6. jorgenswest
    Data can not be used to evaluate the pitching performance in the spring. They can not support an assessment of which pitcher may have outpitched another. The sample is extremely small and the opponent is too uneven. Pelfrey wasn't the starting pitcher until March 18. He was coming in while the other teams starters were being subbed out. The eyes of a trained staff need to make that call on the performance. They need to assess the velocity, movement and command. They need to assess how well all pitches are working. In this case, their call doesn't match the spring numbers.
  7. jorgenswest
    I hope not. A handful of spring innings has no value for projection.
  8. jorgenswest
    it is amazing the expectation that Pelfrey will be a good fit in the pen. Most failed starters are also failed relievers. Pelfrey has a long warm up routine. He has much more trouble than normal with runners on base. Do those sound like good attributes of a bullpen arm? The Twins did nothing this spring to see if he could pitch on back to back days. have they worked on changing his warm up routine? Do they know if his arm can pitch on bounce back the next day? The possibility of a bullpen role could easily be foreseen. The Twins should have been upfront with that entering spring. They should have prepared him for the different work load of the pen. They should know now if he is a possible asset in the pen.
  9. jorgenswest
    Since his return Ryan's bullpens have ranked 28th, 24th and 29th according to xFIP. While cheap, they haven't been quality.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think Van Slyke helps the team. I just don't think the Dodgers will be calling the Twins seeking their pitching.
  11. jorgenswest
    If the Dodgers want to trade for a starter, they will find a better trade partner than Minnesota. Last year Milone's trade value was Sam Fuld. His performance in Minnesota did not add to that value.
  12. jorgenswest
    I wonder if anyone other than Perkins would make the Royals bullpen. Adding to the frustration is that they have no one with upside other than Graham. I suppose Pelfrey may have upside. How would they know? Has Pelfrey even come in mid inning with runners on base? Have they evaluated his ability to pitch on back to back days? Do they have any idea if he is suited for the role?
  13. jorgenswest
    There is a small chance that Schafer will find some of the promise once projected for him. Brady Anderson, with the help of steroids, did it at his number of plate appearances. It is hard to find many others, but it is worth a shot until June 1. I have to believe that by June 1 one of Hicks, Rosario or even Buxton will be ready to take over. Meanwhile they can be on the watch for another fourth OF type to be DFA'd or go with Robinson as the fourth OF. Schafer and Nunez are the kinds of chances a 90 loss team should take.They can close the book on Nunez soon, but Schafer is worth a two month shot.
  14. jorgenswest
    I sure hope the Twins are not looking at spring training stats in making roster decisions.
  15. jorgenswest
    Is there a team with a CF or C of similar age, team control and perceived value? Does that team need a SS? I wouldn't take a similar corner or bullpen piece for Escobar. They aren't going to get a league average starter with team control for him. They already have enough back end guys. It doesn't seem likely that a trade partner fit exists. If they can't get up that up the middle guy, I would keep the one they have. They will need him this year. Nunez doesn't have the glove to get regular play anywhere other than possibly 3B.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins have team control through age 28. I don't know what the numbers need to be, but I would be talking with his agent about an extension that gives the Twins control over first his two seasons in free agency. I don't value cost control nearly as much as team control through a players peak seasons. Any deal that only buys arb seasons would not be one I think the Twins should consider.
  17. jorgenswest
    Travis has a point about the Twins. However it is 2.2 million. It is an amount similar to a small arbitration award. The salaries of Duensing, Milone, Schafer and Nunez surround Stauffer's salary. I will follow this spring if any teams are willing to release a player at that commitment level. If the Twins aren't willing, that means that they have fixed roster spots for 5 near replacement level players before the first day of spring.
  18. jorgenswest
    No team would have signed a decline phase low leverage reliever with poor road numbers with absolute expectation that he would be on the roster. There had to be some conversation about the risk that they may need to release him. There is also no reason to give a low leverage spot to a pitcher with no upside. At the time of his signing, they had to be thinking that he is either a cheap 2 million dollar replacement for Burton or released if he didnt look like he would help in that role. Any trade talk is futile. The signed him for 2 million and if anything his stock has gone down. Any team that wanted him this winter could have had him easily. Why would they trade for him? Why would they give up a player and pay the price that they wouldn't pay his winter?
  19. jorgenswest
    Back to roster decisions... It is clear the Twins don't want a young pitcher who can work his way out of command trouble with great stuff. They would prefer a veteran pitcher who has no stuff to get him out of trouble as a result of contact and poor defense. This quote from an article by Eno Sarris might be relevant. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age I wrote about how it isn't unusual for pitchers with good stuff to have high walk rates in the minors. Some teams will bring those pitchers to the majors in spite of their walk rate. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/#commentsStart One theory on the higher walk rates is that minor league hitters can't make as much contact against pitchers with good stuff. This forces longer counts and more walks. Instead of poor contact and an out early in a count, they are making no contact. If the Twins wait long enough, Meyer's command will improve as a result of a decline in fastball. According to Sarris's graph, velocity starts taking a noticeable drop at around age 26-27. They will be comfortable to bring him up then with some of the similarly aging reliever candidates.
  20. jorgenswest
    It didn't get worse for these guys. Poor walk rates didn't stop their clubs from bringing them up to the majors. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/
  21. jorgenswest
    Doesn't Herrmann's option give the team more flexibility? They will need a 13th pitcher at some point. Herrmann can move back and forth when that is necessary. Escobar, Schafer and Robinson don't come with that same flexibility. Pinto and Hicks have an option but I don't think they would want them going back and forth. It will be easier to get Nunez through when every team is trying to cut down to 25. His arb1 salary also might make it less likely someone would claim him.
  22. jorgenswest
    ... and the cycle of mediocrity continues. The worst bullpen in the AL. The only changes are Burton to Stauffer. Swarzak to Pelfrey. Deduno to Graham. Everyone else is another year into their decline. The younger AAA arms are getting older in the minors. They are all already past their age of peak velocity.
  23. jorgenswest
    FIP isn't truly defense independent. Catching does not factor into FIP. Certainly the framing and pitch sequencing does not. If the result of that defense is fewer strikes and more balls, that impact will not be seen in FIP. If framing is costing or saving a team runs, the percent of impact has to come from the portion attributed to pitching.
  24. jorgenswest
    It takes two to platoon. If Schafer's .470 OPS against lefties isn't enough to drive a decision to platoon, what would it take? Hick's OPS against lefties was bested only by Escobar, Suzuki and Dozier, It was better than everyday players Willingham, Plouffe, Vargas, Mauer, Arcia and Santana. It was better than Pinto. There are over 200 (x3) plate appearances against lefties available to someone who can play outfield. Are there three better candidates than Hicks?
  25. jorgenswest
    Career OPS against lefties Hicks 758 Schafer 470 Robinson 591 Hicks is the only one young enough to realistically improve. Why not play Hicks against all lefties? On the bench he is available to pinch hit against a lefty and play defense in a corner. Why aren't these skills valued? Platoon Hicks and Schafer to start the season and use the one on the bench for late inning defense.
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