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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Trading for Quintana probably means they will come up a little behind the Indians and Royals this year a little behind the White Sox in the future.
  2. jorgenswest
    This may be a better comp to the '84 team that made a run. They were 43-41 at the break. Key players were 23-25. They were not active in the trade market. They made two August deals that did no compromise the future. They sent a AAA pitcher, Jay Pettibone, in an August deal to try to fill an enormous void at SS in veteran Chris Speier. He didn't. They sent an A+ 2B prospect, Carson Carroll, to the Mariners for Pat Putnam to try to find someone that could give them offense from DH. He didn't. It would have been easy at the time to suggest they trade the empty bats of Puckett or Gaetti for a pitcher or bat that would make a difference down the stretch. Glad they didn't.
  3. jorgenswest
    Sam Fuld had a .379 OBP throughout three seasons in the minors at the time he hit the majors. It didn't translate well to the majors because it wasn't backed up by ISO. He even had an AZFL split of 402/492/696 in 126 PAs. How different in skills is Zach Granite from Sam Fuld?
  4. jorgenswest
    Kintzler is a free agent after this year. Dozier, Escobar and possibly Santana after next year. They might be sold. The remaining trade assets are under control for several years. I wouldn't trade Polanco unless the return has a similar number of years of team control. I think they are sellers but the only asset they must sell is Kintzler. The only other reasonable option with him is a one year extension. He is 32. For many relievers the shift from useful to liability is abrupt. The Twins needs to be on a one year commitment when that happens to Kintzler.
  5. jorgenswest
    The last administration traded athletic young outfielders before seeing them in their prime. Gomez after his 23 year old season and Hicks after his 25 year old season. They stuck with Span through age 28. Revere was 24. Need a center fielder? Don't develop them. Just wait until they struggle for a few years in Minnesota and then take them in for the prime of their careers. I hope this administration is committed to seeing their young and talented players through their struggles. Buxton, Kepler and Polanco showed enough in the minors very young for their leagues. In fact, they are all younger than Granite. They need tremendous patience as they develop in the majors. We couldn't even give Hicks 1000 plate appearances. Gomez just over 1000. I would want to see closer to 2000 plate appearances with this trio. The Twins need to buyers for their primes.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think the A's will get a return that includes a very good starting pitching prospect. I am not sure the Twins compete well in that arena. Can the A's find better return than Romero?
  7. jorgenswest
    He had a start on June 28. I assume he has been throwing. He can start on the 13th for Rochester and be ready for a start against the Yankees the 18th. I agree that they don't think much of the AAA pitching depth beyond their plan to have Berrios and Mejia as depth behind Santana, May, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes. It wasn't enough depth. Duffey is valuable in his relief role. Time to take a shot on Colon.
  8. jorgenswest
    Love the view of Britton going to back up third and turning after realizing Buxton is already there.
  9. jorgenswest
    Rest is coming soon. No one needs a rest. Molitor needs to put the line up on the field that he believes gives the Twins the best chance to win the game.
  10. jorgenswest
    It may be two games with a reliever coming back after the break. It gives them a better bench for these two games without any impact on the pitching. Smart move.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don't see the Padres taking someone that they will need to take to arbitration. They should be seeking most of the 6 years of control in any player acquired. They are too far away from being competitive. I just don't see Escobar meeting their needs and they can do better than Rosario.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don't think it conflicts and neither characterizes his approach as slap happy.
  13. jorgenswest
    Are they ready to give up on Villar? He was pretty good last year. If I were the Brewers, I would count on Villar doing well in the second half and direct my trade assets elsewhere.
  14. jorgenswest
    I have no thought of trading him. The Twins need pitching. If he can be a starter next year, the cost of replacing his 6th/7th inning role in terms of prospects or free agent dollars is cheaper than adding a starter. To that end, they can give a Hildenberger (or a different young pitcher) his relief role now while he shows in the rotation whether the huge discrepancies between xFIP and ERA was really poor defense and luck or whether his ERA was a better indicator of skill than xFIP and SIERA. There is a very good chance that his ERA from 2016 was not a good indicator of his skill level. Other teams find ways to stretch out pitchers. There are solid starting pitchers living on a fastball and breaking ball over 90% of the time. These seem to be two paradigms that Molitor and Allen don't want to test.
  15. jorgenswest
    How much time would it take to stretch out Duffey? He is probably good into the mid 30s today. Seems like the Royals stretched outs their Duffy to a point where he was into the 6th inning by his third start. Peacock, Delgado, Montgomery and others have done it this season without going to the minors. The stretching out part and the third pitch part are empty words. Pitchers have been successful throwing a breaking ball and fastball over 90% of the time. Relievers are getting stretched about by other teams without going to the minors. Duffey is valuable to the bullpen but the cost of acquiring a starter is much greater than the cost of a 7th inning reliever. Duffey had the best SIERA and xFIP among their starters last year leading to the best projections among starters entering this year. His ERA awful last year was but the combination of poor defense as shown by a huge drop in double play rate and his unsustainably high hr/fb shouldn't be ignored. To me, he is much more worthy of a half season of starts than any other option they have in the organization. The Twins have an opportunity to see Hildenberger in the Duffey role and Duffey in the Hughes/Turley/Jorge/Matt/Tepesch role. If Hildenberger can come close to matching Duffey, I think Duffey will out perform the others. Maybe they will learn that both are valuable pieces of the 2018 team.
  16. jorgenswest
    I had not heard this before. I would like to know more. Is there a study you can link? I would have been of the belief that day to day variation on performance would be a good amount of ramdom noise as well as a correlation to the skill of the current day starter.
  17. jorgenswest
    I am not certain how this will play into the Twins requirement to put Jax on the 40 man roster. I guess he will have pitched a handful of games while on leave every summer. How many full seasons will the Twins see before making that decision?
  18. jorgenswest
    Nice start by Gibson. At the time he was sent down, someone from the front office spoke about the reason on the Twins Insider Show. It wasn't mechanical but he needed to be more aggressive (may have wrong word). Molitor has referenced nibbling following nearly every start since his return. I sense that this might be harder to fix than a mechanical adjustment. It could be a career long battle for him.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think there was authenticity in the fact that they hurried Hughes' return. He had another relief appearance scheduled in AAA but was brought back early when Breslow needed to be put on DL.
  20. jorgenswest
    Isn't he on the DL? I don't get the reference.
  21. jorgenswest
    Is there any mathematics that supports that those statistics above are meaningful for projecting his performance the next few months? Many of those numbers become meaningful in a much much larger sample. At his current sample, only strike out rate starts to be meaningful for projecting future performance. Isn't that what matters? The Twins decision to release him should be based on how they project his future performance this year. I am not arguing that many of the plate appearance and inning level numbers are not different. They are different and they are lousy. I am arguing that they are not good indicators at this sample of how he will perform the remainder of the season. They also don't indicate that he will pitch like he did on 2015 and 2016. Those samples are also small. I appreciate the discussion but I don't think I have any more to contribute. It is hard to put aside my math/statistics background when engaging in discussion related to data.
  22. jorgenswest
    Walk rates very more than strike out rates and take longer to stabilize. It could also be random variation. Is there a significant difference in his pitch level data? That would be telling. The reason performance varies greater for relievers than any other position is not the variability of their skill level but rather the size of the sample for which their performance is based. It doesn't matter to the data whether you are a starter or reliever. They begin to stabilize at the same point. He what's walked 12 batters in the 141 batters he has faced. Might be 136 - do they count an intential walk as a batter faced when you don't throw a pitch? That can even happen to the first batter you face. In 2015, he walked 13 batters in 149 batters faced. Is it enough difference in this sample to support a change in skill level? Last year he walked 4 in 186. Likely random variation due to sample and not a skill change. All I am trying to say is that we can't go by the at bat level or inning level data to make conclusions about how he will perform the remainder of the season. The sample doesn't support that conclusion. The Twins may well have pitch level data related to command that does support a change in skill level.
  23. jorgenswest
    It is no more possible to measure leadership with the data available to us as it is to use the data in the small sample of a partial relief season in any meaningful way. The data is a partial AAA relief season has less meaning. It simply isn't useful in projecting how a relief pitcher is going to perform the remainder of the season. Changing catchers and bringing in veteran leadership seemed to be the two roster priorities for the new front office. I don't have any meaningful tools to argue against it. That Falvey and Levine continue to roster them is more convincing to me that they bring value than any partial season relief stats used to support their removal. I strongly believe that the eyes seeing them pitch and seeing them in the clubhouse are more meaningful than the numbers. It comes down to having confidence in those eyes. If those are eyes are poorly skilled, the Twins have much bigger problems than low leverage relievers and a back up catcher.
  24. jorgenswest
    If we are judging by Belisle's data, there isn't enough sample to suggest he is a less skilled pitcher from his previous few seasons. His velocity hasn't dropped and strike out rates are not significantly different. The sample is too small to look at other batted ball results or innings based results to suggest he has changed his skill level. He could just as likely perform similar to last year's numbers the rest of the way as repeat this year's numbers. We really rely on the eyes of the staff that sees him every day as well as trust in those who have pitch level data beyond our access to make the best decision about Belisle. Breslow hasn't been effective in a while and is used almost exclusively in low leverage situations. I can't measure the value of his leadership in the clubhouse to know if it is worth the low leverage level load he has been given. It is hard to imagine the value he brings, but I am not in the clubhouse or bullpen. Without that experience, I realize I am pretty limited in my ability to support his removal.
  25. jorgenswest
    The front office was very clear in November and again in spring training that they thought the Twins had a void in veteran leadership. They sought veterans that they felt had brought those leadership skills that were missing. They landed on Belisle, Breslow and Gimenez. Being a veteran doesn't equate to being a leader. It is a talent. Two quotes from Berardino's culture club article this spring http://www.twincities.com/2017/03/18/minnesota-twins-build-culture-club-with-five-low-cost-veterans/ “You can have leadership in the front office, you can have leadership in the coaching staff, but if you don’t have leadership in the clubhouse I think it’s a real challenge to navigate 162 games, especially with the amount of youth we’ve had on this team.” “You may see a signing where you may scratch your head and say, ‘Why did these guys spend this kind of money on that player at this stage of his career?’ ” Levine told those Twins fans. “I assure you it’s probably because this guy, in our opinion, has a chance to be a leader in the clubhouse.” Does the FO like old guys? Not particularly. They do value those that have the talent and skill of leadership. Perhaps that leadership helped the team navigate through a sweep by Cleveland and not carry that disappointment into the next series.
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