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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I would prefer Pressly over anyone in the rule 5. Rule 5 pick ups are a wild card for the future. They need to utilize all the 40 for 2018. They shouldn’t participate in the rule 5 this winter.
  2. jorgenswest
    Didn’t know about Lewis. Thanks. Very reluctant to trade him. He would have to be part of a deal that returned a starting pitcher.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am not sure I care any longer where the system ranks.
  4. jorgenswest
    They might need to give up two of their top 10 prospects. That doesn’t sound smart but the top 10 isn’t what it used to be. How would our top 10 rank relative to our system of a few years ago when it was among the best in baseball? I don’t know if too many would have made that top 10. Of course it is difficult to compare because we know the failures (Meyer, Stewart, Pinto) and it would be hard to put those aside. I know that Sickels had Berrios 6 pre 2014. Lewis would make the top 10 but he can’t be traded. Gordon likely be in the 8-10 range among Pinto, Polanco and Kepler. I think they must be willing to trade from the top 10 to get good pitchers in their prime.
  5. jorgenswest
    I can go with a ceiling of 50 million for Cobb or Lynn. With two exceptions, the burden of the 15-16 class were above that ceiling. A contract like Gallardo’s that was 4/48 with the possibility of buying out the 4th year for 2 million would be ideal.
  6. jorgenswest
    The biggest risk is signing a pitcher to a 4 or 5 year contract with mediocre or worse results. Look at the free agent pitching class of 2015. This was a class that was supposed to be very strong. Here are the top 10 starters from MLBTR. I plan to look more at this group in a different post. Price Greinke Zimmerman Cueto Samardzija Leake Chen Kazmir Kennedy Gallardo I did not include international free agent Maeda. How many of these deals look good just two years later? Kennedy got a 5 year deal. Gallardo was coming off a 4.1 bWAR season. The bottom half of this group parallel Cobb and Lynn. I would stay away. I would make an attempt at Darvish thinking his decline would be towards league average rather than number 4-5 starter or worse. I would try to trade for a pitcher like Cole. Failing that, I would go take a chance on older or injured pitchers on a 1-2 year contract. I’d rather take a chance on a Lackey for 1 or Sabathia for 2 than a 4-5 year decline phase deal. Failing that, I would wait until trade deadline.
  7. jorgenswest
    Lynn and Cobb do not belong in the same conversation as Darvish. They would be big splash in Minnesota but so was Ricky Nolasco. These two are much more similar to Nolasco than Darvish.
  8. jorgenswest
    They have to wonder whether May can stay healthy as a reliever. If they go with the reliever role, they need to avoid pitching him on back to back days.
  9. jorgenswest
    https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-randy-rosario-added-to-40-man-roster/
  10. jorgenswest
    Has Rosario already used two options? If that is the case, it seems like he wasn’t close to ready entering his last option season. With a low ceiling he would really need a floor of major league ready entering option 3 to keep on the 40. That kind of spot needs to go to someone who can shuttle back and forth from AAA.
  11. jorgenswest
    I expect the Twins will throw fewer change ups. They ranked 8th in change up frequency and 23rd in change up effectiveness. That 23rd is only that high because Santiago had one of the most effective change ups in baseball at 7.2 runs above average. The rest of the team was -14.3. Kyle Gibson was the only other starter with a positive change up. I expect them to help pitchers make their best pitch even better. Tyler Duffey entered in 2015 with an effective fastball and curve ball. My impression from reading reports is that there was a lot of emphasis in Duffey developing his change up. Would it have been better if he put in that energy towards making his promising curve ball better? Ryan Pressly had one of the better curve balls in the league. Can he improve it further? Is he throwing it enough? They need to work pitchers and make their best pitches better.
  12. jorgenswest
    The reality is the Twin farm system had no really good prospect to offer. They would be trying to offer a package of B+ and B prospects when the teams that won those deals had better prospects. Some preliminary grade info from Sickels today https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/10/23/16498538/minnesota-twins-preliminary-prospect-grade-breakdown-for-2018 They could have won those deals by offering Buxton or Berrios and I think some would endorse that move. If they weren’t willing to deal Buxton or a Berrios, why should other teams spend much time negotiating with them?
  13. jorgenswest
    Over three to four years, I think there is more upside in Chatwood than Lynn. Chatwood’s peripherals last year and age project to that better upside. I also wonder if remixing his pitch mix and sequence holds some unrealized value. It might be best to pass on both and go after a pitcher that can lead in the playoffs. Go after Darvish. Seek Cole in a trade. Failing that wait until the deadline. At that point a prospect like Lewis may have taken another step forward and be the piece that can bring in that top pitcher. Chatwood does have my interest though but it mainly relies on the possibility of unrealized value that may not be there. Signing a guy like this requires thorough homework and a talented staff.
  14. jorgenswest
    I agree that it would only take one and I think it would take at least one. Otherwise the Astros have the better young player to offer.
  15. jorgenswest
    Hickey must be going to Cubs. The staff they added last year in Rowson and Pickler appear to be excellent hires. I am not sure they were high on the radar. I hope they find the same success with a pitching coach.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins have two young players that could have topped the deal that the Tigers received from the Astros. Berrios and Buxton. If you are arguing that the Twins should have topped the deal with the Astros in order to acquire Verlander, you have to also be OK with letting go of one of those two. It would be great to acquire Verlander and acquire him at a bargain that would involve a package of several prospects. The reality is that the top prospect in the deal wins the deal.
  17. jorgenswest
    Earlier this year Chatwood and his change up made fangraph’s underthrown pitch series. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/underthrown-pitches-and-the-pitchers-who-underthrow-them-vol-3-sliders-and-changeups/ The combination of leaving Coors and the possibility of better utilizing his pitch mix are intriguing.
  18. jorgenswest
    At the risk of derailing this conversation further by replying to the constant push back I will clarify once more and then I suggest we might ignore each other after your last word. - I suggested buy big or seek a trade. Darvish is far enough above league average that he is much more likely to be a guy we want starting in the playoffs as he declines into his 30s. - I use strikeout and walk rate because it stabilizes in a small sample. There is real reason to be concerned about Lynn’s strike out and walk rates as well as his move to AL. - I started with that teams must do their homework. The skill of our front office in projecting the performance out 3-4 years is critical. The data available to teams makes this possible. I would endorse opening the coffers for Darvish and be very cautious about committing to Lynn.
  19. jorgenswest
    Darvish
  20. jorgenswest
    Yes. I wouldn’t make that deal. Perez and Jimenez (in the Quintana deal) have better upside than anyone outside of Buxton and Berrios. I can’t fault the front office for keeping those two.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think I would either spend big or seek a trade. Failing either of those, I would wait until trade deadline and pay for a rental. Santana is the exception for signing league average pitchers to a 4 year contract into their 30s. There are more Nolascos than Santanas.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think I do have enough doubts not to be the team that gives him a 4 or 5 year contract. There is a high likelihood that he will decline and be a Nolasco like burden on a team. I would go after the top pitchers and failing that seek a trade. As for FIP and xFIP, in his 5 years he has outperformed in 3 of them so his career numbers after this season are better. The difference was negligible entering the season with an ERA of 3.38 and FIP of 3.39. The weight of this season has significant impact on his career numbers. Is that what you meant by throughout?
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins couldn’t match the trade with their minor leaguers but a Buxton or Berrios would have trumped the Astros offer.
  24. jorgenswest
    Simply responding to an earlier question about first half/second half in response to significant downturn in rates. I think that poster had hoped they improved during the season as he moved further away from TJ. They didn’t. Not everyone returns to their pre TJ level. Not every pitcher pitches as well at 31 as 28. Any team signing Lynn really needs to do their homework. They need to be confident that he will return close to his age 28 level. His value in fWAR was very similar to that of Gibson in 2017. The Twins don’t need to pay big dollars for that performance.
  25. jorgenswest
    First half k/bb 22.0/9.0 Second half 17.0/11.3 His first half number were close but worse than his career norms. His second half and season overall were significantly worse than career norms entering 2017. Not everyone comes all the way back from Tommy John. The Twins need to do their homework here. His reasonable 2017 ERA is of little value projecting 2018-2021. His poor 2017 FIP and xFIP are more telling of the future than his ERA.
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