mike8791

Some good points here, Doc! As you say the Garver/KF trade was reasonable. We traded from a position of relative strength(we hope!) for one of need. But what is more interesting, as you point out, is this looks like another sign that 2022 will be a rebuild. The trade, on the surface, does not move the needle much(and might even set it back if Jeffers doesn't step up) for this year. The FO's lack of urgency on the pitching front certainly would lean towards the scenario of 2022 being a test year for the young pitchers. How else can you explain their taking a pass on Rodon and Kikuchi, arguably the 2 best FA starters left? Talking about guys like Pineda/Cueto,et.al certainly points to their failure to push the club back into contention this year, no matter what they said earlier. Grrr! And yes, assuming we are seeing a rebuild, moving Donaldson makes more sense now that we have a surplus of IFs, both on the 40 man and in development. The new DH rule certainly should help demand for JD but what could we get in return.? IMO, the last thing we should do is add to our slew of pitching prospects. By contributing to his salary, FO might pry loose a good(=better than Pineda/Cueto) major league pitcher. Of course, the loss of Cruz, JD, and Garv will weaken the offense but if this is truly a rebuild, then don't stop midway. Nor should they count on a staff filled with prospects a path for contention in next 2-3 years, which is why landing at least two young, major league pitchers is still essential to a sharp upward swing in 2023 and beyond. And if their prospects flame out, the Wonder Boys will be long gone by then, anyway!

Biggest complaint is that Garver, one of the best trade candidates on the current roster, could have been a much more valuable chip in obtaining a more-desperately needed starter! This trade has a very low probability of moving the needle for 2022 prospects. Took away a plus offensive contributor in Garver for a decent offensive upgrade at SS. Not sure they couldn't have found a comparable SS without giving up such a valuable trade piece. If Jeffers continues to develop offensively and K-F does the same, this could be a decent long term move, but it certainly won't improve team's 2022 chances. Looks like "contending in 2022" was a pipedream, at least to date.

Update - Giants sign Rodon for 2yr/$44. Absolutely reasonable for Twins. This FO is a disgrace!!

Oops! Meant Tyler Glasnow on the Rays, not Kevin Gausman. Rumors has him on trade block because of injury.

Nick, you seem to be caught up in the euphoria of the agreement.: http://From the buzz I'm hearing, it sounds like the Twins will be among the teams to strike early with a big move – maybe even by the time you're reading this on Friday morning. http://At the end of January, I laid out three top post-lockout priorities for the Twins: trade for starting pitcher, sign a free agent starting pitcher, and figure out the plan at shortstop. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it plays out in that exact order, and all three are done by Sunday. Wow! I hope you're right but when has this FO(or past ones) ever jumped into the fray with the big boys? We haven't seen a big move, either by trade or FA, since the Falvine boys took over 5+ years ago, Their only "big move" in either category came with the JD signing, at the tail end of the preseason when every other team passed on him. So why would you expect their MO to change now that lockout is over? Do you think there's any more pressure from ownership to win this year after they passed on the pre-lockout agreement? If I were a betting man I would wager maybe one middlin' FA signing(Pineda?) , a C- level SS addition, and maybe a bullpen filler. But if I, too, got caught up in the moment: here is my wish list(in order of positive impact on returning the team to contention: 1. Sign Carlos Rodon! 2. Trade for Gray/Castillo from Reds or Montas from A's. 3. Sign one of Greinke, Pineda, Duffy or Kikuchi. 4. Sign McHugh for the pen 5. Trade for SS - Paul DeJong, Elvis Andrus, Kiner-Falefa, or Nick Ahmed And if there was any money left over(and there should be with $50MM available), take a flyer on Kevin Gausman even if he doesn't play in 2022. This type of move worked well with Pineda. Anyway, let's talk again Monday and see what this FO did accomplish.

Cody, you make some valid points but how can you ignore his horrific HR/9 rate of 2.5? This is a no-no for any RP. Sure, if he can rachet up his FB by 2-3 pts he might have a shot but what are the chances of that at this stage in his career? Guys like Jax, Thorpe, Stashak, and probably Dobnak are roster fillers who should be jettisoned quickly if and when our top pitching prospects develop.

Cody, can't agree here at all for following reasons: 1. You rightfully say it makes little sense to go for just one top rotation arm, but why should the FO look to just one when they can obviously add a second from FA(Rodon, Greinke, e.g.), find a solid #3 in a Pineda, Kim, Odo, or Duffy - none of whom will break the bank in salary or prospects? Seems to me a strawman argument. 2. Waiting a year (or 2 or 3) to try contending again is a crap shoot, given the current lineup, which has the potential of being playoff-worthy now, but will not all be on the roster in 2 years or will be less productive. 2022 is certainly the best year to contend so long as FO is agressive in going for 3 major league starters not currently on the roster. Believing the team can contend in the next 2-3 years by depending on prospects and dumpster diving is a fool's errand, especially given the failure of this development team to graduate at least one difference maker in 5+ years of control. 3. Montas is exactly the type of trade prospect the FO should be seeking, provided they can come to agreement on extending his contract beforehand. You can quibble with overpaying for him, but if you think Arraez, Cavaco, Strotman are keys to a contending club, I beg to differ. The only guy I'd hate to lose would be Duran, as he looks like the only potential closer down on the farm, but yes, to get Montas for one valuable prospect is worth it. You trade from strength and so Arraez is redundant, and we have a pretty long list of near-majorleague-ready pitching prospects. While the FO's timidity pre-shutdown is regrettable, to say the least, there are still available pitchers out there who if added would transform this team into a contender this year. They owe it to the current players, the fans and to themselves(if they value their jobs and future employment) to make all reasonable efforts to reconstruct a staff currently at the bottom of of MLB rankings into one that is at least league average. Over valuation of prospects prevented Ryan's team from ever becoming successful in the playoffs and so far Falvine seems intent to following in TR's footsteps. This is their last chance to right the ship.

But have these 3 moves really moved the needle? Story would be a major addition but his salary would preclude this org. from spending on their area of biggest need(by far) - starting pitching. If Kikuchi was our major add, this is still a bottom 5 rotation. We need at least two better than average starters. Rodon, despite the injury risks, clearly stands as the premier target. A #2 could be added by trade. For #3, I like Kim and then Pineda. A Kikuchi-level starter could be thrown into the mix to compete with Bundy, Ryan and Ober for bottom two spots. Story's signing would squander resources needed for pitching. Don't forget, if Twins did pull off a trade for an A's or Red's starter to slot as a #2, they would almost have to be ready to extend the contract of said pitcher, given the haul it would take to pry one of these guys loose. Unlikely the team budget allows for top 2 pitching additions plus Story. Fortunately, this offense looks strong enough on paper to contend with the needed rotation additions so Story would be a luxury we could ill afford. I,too, like Rodriguez as an inexpensive pen addition, but his add alone wouldn't turn this bullpen into a plus. A Tepera-like signing would also be needed. I still cling to hope the Twins can contend in 2022 but not if their biggest pitching add is Kikuchi.

Law: Lewis is not a shortstop and has now lost probably a thousand pro plate appearances to injury and the pandemic. And before that, his swing mechanics were a disaster. “Iffy” is kind. His leg kick, which I’m told he instituted himself, screwed up his timing. So, the last time we saw Lewis hitting with “good” mechanics was 3 1/2 years ago, and he still needs a position change, and there’s a chance he won’t get his 80-grade speed back after the ACL injury. If someone thinks he belongs on a top-100 list now, with all of those factors (including an awful performance in 2019), I would say they’re not looking at the subject objectively. There are absolutely 100 better prospects out there, considering probability, performance, upside and time to the majors. Above is from Gleeman's interview with Keith Law in The Athletic. This is as scathing an opinion of the current Lewis that I have seen. While, like all prognosticators, Law is by no means infallible, he is certainly one of the most respected. As he said above, there is little reason to this point to look at Lewis as a top prospect anymore, particularly at SS. If so, this #1 overall prospect pick by Falvine is a colossal failure. There is just no sugar coating it! Throw in their failure to develop even one solid major league pitcher in their 5+ years, not to mention their timidity in FA, one has to wonder - how have they held their jobs? Patience is one thing; putting your head in the sand is another.

Let's face it - Sabato is still a horrible #1 draft choice no matter how you spin it! This FO has failed miserably in top draft choices from Day 1, starting with Lewis who is now no longer ranked in the top 100. Many of us were appalled by his being the #1 overall pick at the time with all the excellent pitching prospects available. Wouldn't Green or Wright look nice on our roster now? This inability to draft difference makers, coupled with Pohlad's cheapness and Falvine's aversion to make transformative trades, dooms this franchise to mediocrity.

You've pretty much got the priorities right, Nick. The needs are urgent if this team is really going to return to contention this year, but "urgency" is a word unknown in Twin's lexicon, so your priorities are highly unlikely to occur with this risk-averse ownership and FO. But if we are going to dream, let's push signing of Rodon to the top of the list. He will be costly(at least $20MM/yr) but he won't require a long term contract, thereby lessening burden of his contract. I like Hayes' suggestion of going hard after Montas, but as Dan says, only if Twins commit to signing him long term. If that is actually the game plan, then including Martin or Lewis makes sense, but would give up 2 of our top 10 pitching prospects not named Canterino or Winder. Sands and Balazovic should get the A's attention. And any of the 3 you mention, Greinke Kikuchi, or Pineda(in that order) would totally change the 2022 outlook. While we do have to give up some prospects, the loss is manageable as 2 of our 3 open rotation spots are filled by FA signings. The only other suggestion is the Twins need a late inning pen addition - someone like Tepera, McHugh, or even Jannsen if Pohlad could be persuaded to loosen his purse strings to at least $140MM. Will any of these moves happen? Very doubtful, but certainly in the realm of possibility.

It's a sad commentary when this lackluster pen looks solid compared to the rotation. At least the FO has a valid excuse: why pay money for relievers when the rotation is so bad!

Just can't get on "we need to sign an OF" bandwagon. Celestino seems ready as backup, at least based on his finish at AAA. Don't think this FO will trade Kepler because: 1.) they are too risk averse; 2.) his value has dropped considerably; and 3.) they have more valuable trade candidates who they can better afford to lose,e.g., Arraez, Jeffers or Garver, pitching prospects, middle IF prospects. There is no excuse for them not to acquire a strong #2 starter with this package. As for LF, they will likely look at combo of Larnach, Rooker(Ugh!!), or some low cost castoff. As others have noted, if they have $50MM to spend, they must go hard after Rodon, find an interim or better SS, and yes, fill some holes in the vBP with at least one potential stopper. Just not enough room in budget for a FA OF.

Top Gunn: Trade Arraez, Larnach, Sabato, Cole Sands and Thorpe to the A's for Montas and Bassitt. There are many reasons why this trade will never happen, the first of which is in 5 years this FO has never shown the b***s to pull off a trade of this magnitude. They're only adept at trading MLers for prospects at the trade deadline and picking up mid-level starters who have flaws(Odo, Pineda, Maeda) for prospects. The second reason this will never happen is the slate of available starters is now greatly reduced, meaning a ton of teams will be bidding for the few available proven ML pitchers available in trade. The 5 player package you propose includes one utility player without a real position, a formerly top corner OF prospect who has little defensive ability and tailed off badly enough to be sent back to the minors, and 3 other marginal prospects who have little trade value(except to Twin fans). The Twins should go all in for the one FA pitcher, Rodon, who has shown top-of-the-rotation talent with the downside risk of being injury prone. That didn't stop the brass from signing Buxton to a 7 year contract. Why should it stop them from signing a player who would not cost them any trade capital at a reasonable 2-3 year contract, and at an AAV that would not be much higher than Story's? It makes so much sense that you might ask why The Wonder Boys didn't get it done by the lockout deadline? If Rodon were signed, the Twins would have plenty of trade capital to acquire one of the top available starters - Castillo, Gray, Montas, Bassitt, or Lopez, any of whom would slot in as a #2 arm on a contender's staff. A possible package including two of the following - Arraez, Kepler, Jeffers/Garvey and one or two of our top 10 pitching prospects would be very attractive to one of the A's, Marlins or Reds. These losses are palatable, given the strength of our minor league pitching staff, catcher, corner OF and middle infield positions. Resigning Pineda, signing a good fielding SS for a 1-2 year contract, and adding two significant relievers would round out a vastly improved roster in 2022. Falvey is on the hot seat. If he can't make the moves to give us a fighting chance for contention in 2022 then time for him to find a job he can handle. In any case, he has a long ways to go now with much less leeway than two months ago.

Rodon is the only one left with clear ace potential and also someone who might sign a shorter term contract than, say s Stroman, because of injury concerns. We can see that this FO will never sign a FA pitcher for more than 1-2 years. Not sure what Boras is asking but as others go off the board and with a looming transaction deadline tonight, it would behoove the Wonder Boys to go all in now - before some of the bigger spending clubs who still have major gaps in their rotation decide to outbid the Twins. Bassitt would be a smart add if only Falvey would give up a couple of our top 20 prospects, including one top 10 pitching prospect. Miami looked like a better fit but now that they've added a catcher, that ship has probably sailed. And Sonny Gray would be a very nice pickup but reportedly the Reds are holding out for a rich package. One of the A's pitchers looks like the best bet as of now, but does anyone on TD think that this FO would give up top prospects needed? I'd bet on a Ryan redux. Pineda doesn't really move the needle, but is probably the most likely signing among the 3 candidates. If they can add him on a one year contract, it would be an OK move, considering Maeda should return in 2023. All in all, these 3 would definitely move the needle towards contention. Anything less, however, and we're looking at a best outcome of .500 ball in 2022. As others have noted the payroll hit would be very palatable and still leave room for a couple of pen pickups, a SS, and perhaps a fourth long-shot starter. The window is closing fast. Can Falvey rise to the challenge of nudging this team back into contention as early as 2022?

Twins Ace - Gray signed with the Rangers. 4 years for $56 million. (I definitely missed a few signings that happened on Friday as well. Crazy how much action there was over the past 4 days.) Believe Top Gunn meant Sonny Gray w/Reds, not Jon. Sonny would be one of my favorite targets - like him a lot better than Jon and I believe he is owed $12MM for '22 and option for '23. If Twins could swing another deal with A's or Marlins for one of their starters that would make for a formidable top 3! Tony/Rod: I love watching Rodon but the failure of Chicago to offer raised concern, even if it is uninformed worry on my part. Yes, there is a red flag but Sox want to put Kopech into rotation, leaving Rodon as a luxury(in their view). Sox blew it last year when they DFA'd Rodon but no one bit so they had him back on the cheap. Rodon has had injury issues, including last year, but came back strong in last 2 outings in Sept. Moderate risk, high reward(I'd rather sign Rodon than Ray to be a long term ace). Let's see if FO can abandon that risk aversion to take this chance.

The Twins need an ace if they are to be legitimate contenders in 2022. Ray would fit the bill nicely but now, with a Dec. 1st deadline looming, you can practically guarantee a bidding war develops. Does anyone on TD truly believe the Twins are capable of winning such a war? I'd give it <1% chance. But there's another ace-type hurler available - Carlos Rodon. He outpitched Ray last year when healthy. Yes, health concerns have to be factored in, but the upside of this issue is that his market value will be far less than Ray or even Stroman. Perhaps a 3 year/$60MM deal could get it done. The team has the budget to get this done with perhaps $20MM leftover to fill some other holes in FA(paying Bux only $10MM in 2022 provides some added room in the budget). The rest of this offseason is the most critical test for Falvey and co. Can they restore this team to contention in 2022? Signing Rodon comes with risk but to move the needle, this is exactly the type of move that any competent management should be willing to take. Wouldn't it be nice to see the Twins swoop in for once, rather than wait for the dust to settle before making their move?

Well T-giving has passed and Xmas has come early.. Today, I just received a copy of Derek Falvey's business planner from a disgruntled FO employee wishing to make public DF's plans starting in August 2021 thru opening day 2022. For brevity sake I have removed all the confusing algorithms, statistics, and doodlings that comprise most of these pages, but the words are his! Hope you enjoy this rare insight into the brain of Derek Falvey!! Aug. 2021 1. Make up list of all preseason pitching Minor League FAs and add to roster as spaces open up. Need to see who looks promising for 2022 pen. Just can't understand why none of my prized draft pitchers from the past 5 years haven't yet made a contribution to our big league bullpen? Maybe trading Pressley was a little premature. 2. Confer with Rocco and staff about feasibility of reinstituting pregame practice now that season is down the tubes. Make sure this act does not lower team morale, especially the young players. 3. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Sept. 2021 1. Tell Rocco to keep Barnes in the rotation. He looks like a late bloomer. 2. Looks like we've found our bullpen closer for next year. Alcala pitching much better now that pressure is off. 2.. Glad Rocco brought back Refsnyder. Love to see these bargain basement veterans succeed at big league level! 4. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Oct. 2021 1. Season finally over! No more worries about presiding over team's record-breaking playoff loss streak. 2. Excited about having the #8 first round draft choice next year. Should be some excellent power hitters to supplement our DH/corner OF depth in the first round. Of if we get lucky, might be able to find an under-the-radar HS SS we can develop into a utility player. Be still my heart!! 3, Filled two huge offseason needs; Hitting Instructor and Bench Coach. Whoopee!! Saved a ton of money hiring Mary from Dodger Org. Who cares if he never coached higher than Class A.? He is a statistical whiz and is raw enough to listen to FO suggestions. Veteran bat coaches are a dime a dozen, but it takes a sharp mind like mine to ferret out the unpolished gems. And grabbing Tingler from the Pods is a real coup. He'll be a great asset in restoring team morale by providing strong leadership that Rocco lacks. His success managing Pods convinced me he would be the best mangerial candidate available if Rocco continues to fail on fundamental instruction. 4. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Nov. 2021 1. Whew, finally got the Cave contract wrapped up. Worried we might not have capable CF when BB down. And JP will be thrilled we saved $200K on the budget. Maybe I'll get a bonus! 2. Working 24/7 to decide on who to add to 40 man roster. Hate to give up on anyone now, as team played so much better after trade deadline. I was particularly worried about losing Enlow as it would make me look bad, given fact he was highest paid 3rd round pick. I know talent when I see it! Hard to lose gamers like the Turtle, Gant, Smeltzer, Garlick. You just can't have enough minor league depth in case of injuries. 3. Exciting to see our fast-rising prospects in the AZ Fall League. Wallner looks like he's in the hunt for our DH next year and our pitching prospects look like valuable additions to the pen in 3-4 years. 4. Nov. 15th : Finally vacation time. Let the contenders overspend on starting pitchers. We're waiting for the real bargains to filter down. Thad will keep things at a slow simmer during the GM meetings. Besides, we haven't yet developed our strategy yet for the offseason(hard to do when JP hasn't issued his budget for 2022). 5. Reminder: must check on long distance service from Mongolia so I can answer any callbacks from BB's agent. 6. Damn! Had to cancel rest of vacation as Thad needed my input on whether to tender BB by the new Nov. 30th deadline. Tough call here, given how hard it's been to schedule a meeting with his agent, but JP put his foot down and said for PR purposes we had to offer BB arbitration. We were sort of surprised as Jim had earlier said he was reluctant to increase the budget while the virus was still prevelant. Dec. 2021 1. Glad to see the CBA deadline put a halt to any trades or FA signings. Frankly, just too much to do yet to determine our offseason plans. Still big divide in the FO whether to attempt to try to contend in 2022 or rebuild completely. As usual, no direction from ownership, but of course that's what I love about this job. Future plans are all in my hands and, being the smartest guy in the room, I can't wait to finalize my new 5 year rebuild plan. Just have to keep it on the QT. We have season ticket sales to push! 2. Returning to Mongolia as not much more can happen without new CBA. Gave the FO the rest of the month off as a reward for a successful 2021. Glad we got the BB 2022 contract settled. Jan. 2022 1. The New Year has started with a bang! The phone is ringing off the hook now that player transactions have recommenced. Can't believe how these foolish GM's anxious to trade starters think they can grab any of our prized Top 20 prospects. I learned from TR that you must always stay in a rebuilding mode, so why would I give up any of our prize draft choices, even though we're a bit short of experienced starters. We need depth at all positions in the minors and majors if we are ever going to be successful with our rebuild. Judging from my success in developing a home-grown bullpen from draft choices, why should we change course now. 2. Had a surprise call from Scott on Carlos Rodon. Said he'd accept a short term 1-2 year contract at $20 MM/yr. The Fool! Just think of the risk with this guy. Scott should know by now that we never take risks! Just imagine if it went south? My adoring public would find I have no clothes. Feb. 2022 1. Finally, my favorite month of the year! Time to show everyone how smart I really am. Signed Michael Wacha to be our staff ace and Rich Hill and Pineda to be our #2 & 3 starters, while resigning Colome(just can't believe no one picked this guy up) to close games. And hit the trifecta when we resigned Simmons fo half his 2021 salary. All in all a very successful offseason. Can't wait for ST to start! Mar. 2022 1. So nice to be back at Lee Stadium! First game was today. Funny no fans showed up. Hmmm! Such pessimists these fans are!!

Seth, am usually opposed to bringing back ex-Twins previously released, especially one also just released by Detroit, but if he has still truly an above average fielding SS, his power potential alone would make him a clear choice over Simmons. We're not going to spend the dollars necessary to sign one of the big name FAs, so why not a flyer on this guy? Don't like his high K rate, but from the list of other available middlin' SSs, this would seem to be a good low risk candidate at a very moderate cost. I like the idea of jettisoning Cave and see Gordon and Goodrum as backups in both the IF and SS if and when Lewis can take over SS position permanently. Unfortunately, I don't see the Wonder Boys going for an "old" Twin; just not in their DNA.

Cody, this is the essential question now. Resign Bux to a long term extension or not. The whole offseason depends on resolution of this question. If we fans can understand this, you can be sure management understands this, too, which is why significant FA signings/ trade speculation, etc. are just hollow hopes. While it is still too soon to predict which direction this FO intends to go, there was one revealing statement by Falvey in the Rosenthal article on resigning Buxton that is most illuminating: "At this stage of the offseason, we’re still just navigating our strategy and planning and trying to understand what’s available to us and what the market looks like on all periods." Now we all know this guy is a great spin doctor, but the fact he was quoted just this week that they were still navigating strategy is pretty shocking. Wouldn't a responsible organization have decided prior to opening of the FA signing period that either they had to sign Buxton as a base for retooling the roster in order to return to contention in 2022 or not signing him resulting in a complete rebuild? There is no logical middle ground here. The fact they haven't yet moved on Buxton indicates they will be hamstrung in making significant trades or signings until the Buxton issue is settled, resulting in the usual dumpster dive after all the dust has settled this offseason. I think most of us at TD are stunned by this lack of resolve, but we shouldn't be. The history of this org. points to acceptance of mediocrity by ownership satisfied with sporadic contention, but clueless on taking the next step. Falvey seems the perfect hire for perpetuating JP's reluctance to take the necessary risks to win. So those of us left in the Twins fandom can look forward to another rebuild led by the Wonder Boys or some clone thereof. As a 60 + year fan of the franchise, I am now more pessimistic than ever in both the short and long term prospects for this franchise so long as the Pohlad family is in charge.

Nice summary, Ted! While many of us here are clamoring for a top-of-the-rotation FA signing, the whole history of this organization unfortunately points to disappointment on this score. The Twins have historically shied away from long term signings(I believe 4 years is as far as they've gone). The Jays recent signing of Berrios to a fair $18.5MM/year contract is a strong example of this. I don't think many of us thought he would sign for such a reasonable amount and wonder why the Twins couldn't have at least matched that. The reason is simple - Berrios wanted long term security and Toronto gave him 7 years. E. Rod's signing by the Tigers and Thor's s deal with the Angels adds further evidence that this org. just will not take that kind of risk, no matter how desperate our need is for starting pitching. As far as FA signings go, does anyone expect the FO to land one of the top dogs in a very good FA class? Likelihood is the pattern of waiting around until Jan/Feb until bargain basement FAs are identified will continue again this year. So trading for young, controlled pitching is more likely. And to get a valuable piece, the Twins will have to give up something of value. Who they give up is a big question. As you note, the Twins have some depth in the C, middle IF, and corner OF positions. Arraez is the easiest pick to offer, but doubt he would be a centerpiece for a solid starter. However, such a package including Arraez and a couple of top 20 prospects might get one of the A's starters or perhaps even Gallen. Garver also has value, but my bet is that young, rebuilding teams like Miami would much rather have Jeffers than the older Garver( and that would be a good thing, especially if contending next year is really the goal). It does not take a genius to see the matchup with Miami if only the Wonder Boys were unafraid to take the risk and add some top prospect or two to sweeten the pot. Kepler would be the last regular I'd trade, mainly because there is already a big question mark in LF, so unless the FO had the budget and will to sign a major league hitter like Canha or even Marte, they just couldn't afford to weaken the OF any further, even assuming they resigned Buxton. Kirillof is destined for 1B , Larnach is still a major unknown, and Celestino/Martin/Lewis are a ways away. All this speculation is out the window if Buxton is traded. At that point it would be obvious that the FO lied to fans about their contending in 2022. Instead, expect a big selloff would be their path, with the inevitable 4-5 year wait to return to relevance. The one good thing about such a rebuilding path is that Falvine would not be around to mishandle it.

Nice article Nick! With all the sceptics of the FO on TD(myself included), your pointing to some of their successes is important for all of us to remember. Their acquisitions of Odo, Pineda and Maeda were smart ones(the others perhaps less so). Their salary dump trades, especially this year, hold promise, especially gaining Ryan and Martin, although tpo early to tell how these will work at ML level. Even the Pressley trade, which I still think was a mistake at the time, might work out with Alcala and Celestino developing nicely. At least this FO hasn't been guilty of the awful trades we saw in the Smith regime. But(there's always a but), we are at a different juncture now after this season's disaster. If we are going to rebound to contention in 2022 the FO must acquire at least two top-of-the-rotation arms, for starters. They cannot afford to sit around the edge of the pool and watch others nab the top FAs/trade candidates, while waiting for bargains to develop. Detroit recognizes the importance of going big by their signing of E. Rod today. Does this Fo have the budget and the cajones to strike quickly or will we wait for Jan/Feb to grab the "bargains"? And will this FO be willing to trade some of our top prospects and some of our excess major leaguers to corral a top young starter? Straddling the fence is not an option. They need to roll the dice and go big or tear it down and rebuild. I hope they live up to their promise to build a contender this offseason, but their 5 years at the helm do not give me cause for optimism, I'm afraid.

Mills, not sure where your final budget lies, but quick glance at your roster shows much imagination and realism. Particularly like your addition of Canha to replace Kepler in Rf, thereby enhancing trade package for Lopez. Don't think he's ready to assume ace status, but he would be a prime catch if Marlins willing to trade him. He would be a more movable piece than Rogers or Alcantara, either of whom would be my first choice. While Stroman or Rodon would be a better bet for a #1 Starter they admittedly will be a much harder get than Rodriguez. Can't favor Wacha - he had a terrible year. Rather spend a little more for someone like Pineda or Hill to give rotation better depth. The lineup looks good, but only if Kirillof, Bux, and JD remain healthy most of the season. It should be an above average offense, but not top tier unless everything broke favorably. The bullpen would be helped by Knebel as stopper, but I'd pass on Ottavino and go for Tepera or Yates. Barring injuries to Rogers or Duffey and with continued improvement from Alcala this could be a much improved pen compared to the trash heap of 2021. All in all, a very good roster! Let's hope the FO hires you as trade consultant!

Gray's history suggest a ceiling as a #3 starter. Pineda would fit that slot as well, has better stats and would likely sign a 1-2 year contract. Gray wouldn't move the needle much. Twins still need two top-of-rotation guys. Save their bullets for those two, not on Gray.

Now that QO list is complete, it is notable that 3 very good pitchers were not on it: Jon Gray, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony DeSclafani( and Stroman was ineligible for QO). Consideration of relinquishing their #3 draft pick might play a role in FO decisions on SP selection. While Stroman might have been the #1 choice in the TD universe, he certainly would be highest price, probably over $25MM/yr for minimum of 5-6 years. Any one of the other 3 pitchers might be a better choice, with Rodon at the top of my list. He returned in September throwing 99MPH, though SSS. While higher risk perhaps, he is only one who has ace potential.