mike8791

Can't make excuses for either of these pitchers. They've been horrible. Real question is what to do about it? Can't really add much to Berrios discussion, other than to say he will probably never develop into an ace, but Baldelli might look to the Cubs for an answer to Rogers' problems. Earlier, the Cubs had counted on Kimbrel to be their closer. When he started the season with about a 10.00 ERA with multiple blown saves, rookie mgr. Ross quickly demoted him to a late inning reliever, with others closing. This took Kimbrel out of high pressure situations where he seems to have found his rhythm. Yesterday, he came in to save a Cubs win by striking out the side. Ross realized in this shortened season, he could not afford to wait for his closer to rediscover himself; instead, he pulled the plug. With a deeper bullpen than the Cubs, Baldelli should follow suit. Let Romo close, use Rogers in non-save situations until he straightens himself out. The team cannot afford another near disaster like Tuesday nite!

Nick, with the enlarged playoffs, seems a no-brainer that this team will at least make the first round. Before the pandemic, I,too, believed this team should be the favorite in the Central; however, the reduced 60 game season gives me pause as bad streaks, injuries and just fluky runs by other teams can very easily upset the apple cart. I see a few clouds on the horizon: 1. Playing only one exhibition game prior to today's start is not conducive to a fast start, nor is the absence of 2 of our 3 best pitchers. Look for the Sox with Giolito tonite taking at least 2 of 3, with a possibility of a sweep. The latter would not be disastrous but could tilt the odds to Chicago oin a shortened season. 2. As mentioned above, our rotation to start the season is shaky. Berrios is a strong #2 and Maeda maybe a good #3, but I have little confidence in Bailey and 40-year-old Hill(maybe one will shine, but not both). If Odo is back and in form quickly that will help, but right now there is a big falloff after Berrios and Maeda. Losing Pineda for 2/3 of the season hurts big time. Sure, one of Smeltzer, Dobnak or Thorpe could surprise, but can't count on that. 3. The offense almost has to digress from 2019 - too many career years. It should be one of the best, but a falloff by 0.5 to 1 run/game is possible, especially if this team gets off to a slow start. 4. On paper the bullpen looks good(probably better than last year's), but an injury to their one proven closer, Rodgers, could be disastrous. Who would step up without a loss of efficiency? This is a very precarious position to be in, especially in the playoffs. Granted, I might seem like a nervous nellie here, but my optimism is tempered by the vagaries of such a short season and repeat of last year's offense. So, put me down for making the playoffs, maybe 35 wins, but without an ace, doubt this team is a strong contender to advance far into the playoffs.

Patrick, congrats on blogging on an issue that has bothered me greatly with the Falvey strategy. Of course,I'm very pleased with the progress they've made in 4 offseasons of drafting, free agency and (to a much more limited extent) trades. What Twin fan cannot be ecstatic with a 101 win season? Well, having experienced the thrill of WS wins in '87 and '91, and not getting any younger, I for one am getting impatient for this regime taking the step necessary to advance in the playoffs - a feat only accomplished once since 1991 - in 2002 when we beat the A's in the first playoff series. That's one playoff victory in almost 30 years. While there have been lots of reasons for playoff failures, we can see that the teams most successful in advancing have done so with top-of-the-rotation starters shutting down the opposition - a trait sorely lacking in the Twins organization to the present day. Only Santana has emerged since 1991 and his efforts in 2006 failed due to a lack of hitting in that series. But surely, as we looked forward to 2020, most fans would acknowledge, I believe, that lack of an ace would mean the odds against advancing would again be severely hampered by lack of one, no matter how powerful a lineup. Basically, there are 3 ways to acquire a stopper: by the draft, by free agency or by trade. This organization has remained consistent in their refusal to compete in the FA market for #1 starters - a position Falvey has followed. Trades have brought in Odorizzi and Maeda, but again, Falvey has proven unwilling to trade top prospects or an established position player for an ace(thinking of a Buxton for Thor trade here). So that leads to the draft, where again Falvey hasn't even attempted to go for top pitching prospects even though he had the #1 pick 4 years ago, where they, reportedly, passed on McCay to select Lewis. Yes, it's a crap shoot, but so is selecting a HS shortstop. OK, chances of drafting a #1 - type starter are also low, as Patrick has shown, but if you are never going to aim high, how are the Twins going to move into the elite circle of legitimate WS contenders? Either they start taking some greater risks in the trade market or in the draft, or we are probably going to remain on the outside looking in. If Falvey's hiring was due to his association with the Indians' organizational success in developing starters, he hasn't shown it rubbed off on him. I keep hoping for a change in philosophy, but so far, no dice. It would be a shame to waste such a potent lineup with a less-than-stellar staff.

Good and timely article, Nash. Everyone except Falvine seems to realize the need for an ace if this team is going to advance in the playoffs. After three stagnant years of good but not great pitching, Berrios is a good but not great pitcher - and he is the best we have now. So in evaluating trade candidates, we need to identify an established ace or one who has exhibited ace potential. Boyd and Archer do not move the needle much from Berrios. Sale more so, but unless he can be moved for prospects not named graterol or Lewis, his injury history and age diminishes his value considerably. Thor is the only candidate who clearly has ace potential and yes, the Twins should be willing to trade Buxton, one top 10 prospect and one 10-20 prospect, if Mets agreeable. I would hate to lose Buxton but Twins are stacked in OFers, with Kepler a more than adequate CF. The big drawback is the high unlikelihood of Mets trading Thor. Still, this is a subject the FO should be working on if they are serious about competing in the playoffs. Assuming Thor is unavailable, I would look at three other trade candidates(in descending order of desirability) : Snell, Ray and Jon Gray. Tampa Bay could unload Snell with their already formidable rotation. Signing Donaldson might allow Sano to be moved in a trade here. Ray and Gray have shown flashes of dominance and both have been rumored to be available, albeit for a high price. We have the minor league talent to get it done, even if it means giving up a Lewis or Kiriloff. So those are my immediate targets in order of importance: Thor, Snell, Ray, and Gray. Surely, one of these could be pried loose, If only we had some bold risk takers in our FO! If I were a betting man, I would say there is less than a 10% chance this FO could get it done. Sorry to be such a naysayer but nothing this FO has done in 3 years gives me confidence in their ability to pull off a major trade. Pohlad seems to thrive with low risk takers and he has had two of the best in Ryan and Falvey, I'm afraid.

Well Nick you are certainly right on Twins' chances for Ryu! It was just not in the DNA of this franchise to take such a risk - a stance that is an insult to the fans, the current roster, and totally indefensible. I can only conclude the surest path to the executive suite at the Pohlad-run Twins organization is to run scared, take limited risks and hope to get lucky! But as a perennial optimist, despite having little faith left in the One Trade Wonder Boys, I, too, look to the trade mart as our last best hope. Sure, we will probably dumpster dive like last year for 2020's Martin Perez reclamation project for someone like Hill, Woods, et.al, now the only way to pick up a top of the rotation guy is by trade. Not that I think Falvine has the balls to pull off such a major acquisition, but on a day when most TD readers are way down, let's spread a little hope, anyways. Robbie Ray is also my first choice, eve though his past record shows only one big year. You can't ignore his SO rate and he is certainly worth trading for. The Dbacks need outfield help, so start with Rosario and some mid level prospects (#10-20) they might like. Obviously, this trade doesn't get done unless FO has a tacit agreement for an extension. Lots of reasons this wouldn't work, but every effort must be made in an attempt to salvage what has been a disastrous offseason. Don't agree on Matz, as he really hasn't had a breakout year and his peripherals just aren't that good. While an extreme longshot, I would try for Thor again, starting with Buxton, and some top prospects. He is my favorite Twin, but he's probably the one Twin who might get the conversation moving. Do I expect this FO to try? No, but doesn't hurt to speculate what they should be doing. I would go all out for Blake Snell, who is coming off an injury-plagued off year. The Rays are always looking to shed payroll and add some offense. Any 2 of our top 4 pitching prospects should be offered, along with one of our thumpers, like Sano, Rosario, or one of our top 2 -3 position players,e.g., Lewis, Larnach or Kirillof. The Rays owe us big time for the Garza trade! Maybe they'll take pity on us! Yes, it's a shame we'll have to give up some major assets, both present and future, to strengthen a staff by trade rather than a far less painful free agency signing. But if this team is going to continue to be a factor in the playoffs with a decent prospect of advancing for the first time 1n 17 years, they simply have no choice at this time. Either think big or fall back!

If Rosenthal getting the straight skinny(and he usually does), count me as strongly against! Why, because it is not within the realm of possibility the Twins would splurge on both Ryu and Donaldson. A pitcher like Ryu is almost a necessity to push the needle forward, Josh is a luxury we can do without. Rather resign Cron then bring Donaldson aboard, unless budget was expanded to afford two high-priced free agents. Give me Ryu and I'd consider the offseason a success, especially if FO spent any excess money signing any of Berrios, Odo, Sano or Buxton to long term contracts. I think signing Donaldson would severely limit team's success in keeping their young core without significantly increasing chance for advancing further into playoffs.

http://No to Betances To land a potential closer on a short term contract, a risk must be taken. He has averaged a ridiculous 15SO/9IP! We need a guy like this. If we took a chance with an injured Pineda, Betances should be a no-brainer for 1 yr. http://A trade for Bryant does nothing in my view; C'mon. This is a ROY, MVP player. Would you rather have him than Arraez - he of the half season of ML history. You need to give up someone to get something. Doubt if Cubs go for this, but worth a shot! How do you like an infield with Sano and Bryant at the corners? http://strongly disagree that Ray's downside is a solid rotation piece. He's one of the most high ceiling low floor pitchers in baseball not even year to year but day to Ray is a solid #2 with a 12SO/9IP over last 3 years. True, he is a bit erratic but his fundamentals(age, LH, FB speed) mark a potential ace. If Dbacks continue top ask for the moon, then I would turn attn. to Jon Gray, but Ray is the prize here.

Lots of teeth gnashing on Twins' offseason so far - and for good reason. The strong FA pitching class has been whittled down to almost the vanishing point, or so it seems to many of us. After a record-setting 101 win season, followed by the crushing exit at the hands of the Evil Empire, the FO made noises about adding impact pitching. As most of us on TD realize, this team just doesn't stack up well in a playoff environment. The bats go cold, our starters and bullpen fall on their faces, and our defense throws away whatever slim chances we had left. So what to do to move the needle forward? Well, here's my plan(in order of importance): 1. The Rotation Unless a miracle occurs and they sign Ryu, the trade route is the way to go. Top priority should be Robbie Ray. Now that MadBum is on board, Ray might be expendable. He has one year left before FA and he was supposedly in play at last trade deadline. They have a need for a starting OF and Rosario might be a good fit. Sweeten the pot a bit with one or two of our top 20 prospects and get the deal done. Ray is not yet the ace we were seeking but he seems to have the upside to slot ahead of Berrios, et. al. At worse he would be a solid addition to the rotation. And by all means take a flyer on some free agent who could turn things around, fill in for Pineda early, then slide into the #5 slot should our minor leaguers struggle. Julio Teheran would be my first choice, Rich Hill my second. Either one would not break the bank and at least has a high chance to fit into the rotation immediately. 2. The bullpen Yes, this is still an area that needs improvement. Many on TD believe that with Rogers as closer and Romo, Duffy, May and Littell give us a playoff-ready bulletin. I do not. True, Romo looks solid and May and Duffy made good strides in the second half of 2019 but today's championship teams need a shutdown bullpen and that the Twins do not have. If their closer, Rogers, falters or gets injured or worn out from overuse like multiple innings, this pen is toast. You need at least three proven backenders out of the bullpen. The solution has to start with signing Betances, who is looking for a one year, $10MM contract. The FO should have jumped already. He is a risk, but one well worth taking. I would also try to sign either Will Harris or Daniel Hudson or even our old friend Brandon Kintzler. Two additions and this bullpen suddenly looks fortified for the long haul. 3. The infield Right now, we have a vacancy at 1B and an admittedly inferior left side infield defense. The solution seems apparent: 1.) move Sano to 1B, 2.) trade Arraez, and either one or two of our top 5 pitching prospects to the Cubs for Kris Bryant; 3.) move Polanco to 2B and insert Adrianza in as starting SS. The Cubs need a leadoff hitter/2B, they need to shed payroll and they need to add to their minor league pitching depth - in a big way. This is a high risk trade, but one that an organization seeking to move deep into the playoffs now should be doing. Notice the above moves do not require signing a high priced FA, though Bryant will certainly be one by 2022 at the latest, and Ray will not be cheap either. But these moves will show the current roster that managment is going all out to win now. They could put an exclamation point on this by signing at least Berrios, and possibly Odorizzi to long term contracts. The point is that risks must be taken if you are not going all out for the top free agents. The moves outlined above will dispel the doom and gloom surrounding this franchise now and change the whole dialogue of whether this organization is committed to a World Championship. Is any of this realistic? Most definitely!! All it takes is some cajones and a willingness to spend some $. Pohlad and Falvey - the ball is in your court.

I'm afraid this is going to be a very short series of articles, given this FO has made one trade of consequence in three years! Yes, the Odo pickup was a plus, but let's face it, Falvine didn't risk much in obtaining him. To look at the Littell deal as a positive assumes his short stint as a reliever in 2019 was indicative of future success. Looking at his minor league stats, especially his low SO/IP ratio, there is little(no pun) reason to think he can sustain this success in the majors. One has to ask: is this the type of reliever you want in a tight, late-inning situation or even in the playoffs at all? Hope I'm wrong here, but you just can't count on a guy like this with his mediocre minor league record. If we look at the Anderson, Pressley and Dyson trades vs. Odorizzi one, the best you could give this FO is a C grade. If they fail to make a significant trade in the 2019/2020 offseason, you can lower that to a D. Sorry, but this FO reminds me all too much of the do-nothing Ryan regime, in risk aversion and small-mindedness.

Nick, congrats on another of your balanced, logical articles. As you say, Twin fan base expectations for an impact pitcher have been overly optimistic. Cole and Strasburg were never within reach, and the next tier of MadBum, Wheeler and Ryu, for personal and financial reasons, were low % Twin FA additions. Just too many bidders for too few commodities. And frankly, there is a a huge question mark on whether any of the latter three FA would actually be the ace we're seeking. Mad Bum is on the decline, Wheeler has never been more than a #3 on the Mets and Ryu has an injury history that leaves major questions. But that leaves the question - what should this FO be doing - unanswered. IMO, there are two major reasons holding this organization back: 1. Ownership's inability/unwillingness to bring this franchise a championship. Pohlad has never come out and stated this as his mission and consequently, this ambiguity is reflected in lack of financial commitment to do so. 2. Falvey has demonstrated a risk aversion to trading assets that is more than troubling. One significant trade in three years(and that one didn't result in giving up a top prospect). This FO had no hesitation in collecting prospects at the 2018 trade deadline but have shown no propensity to use such assets to improve the major league team. No guts, no glory, I'm afraid. While 101 wins raised everyone's hopes, very few seasoned Twin fans on TD gave this team much of a chance to advance in the playoffs, especially when they sat on their hands at the trade deadline(Romo and Dyson were not going to move the needle much). And sure enough, another embarrassing loss to the Yanks! The offseason is well advanced by now, and so far the Twins continue to dither, ala Ryan. It has been 28 years and counting since our last WS and 17 years since our last playoff series victory. If the Wonder Boys continue to nibble at the edges, I would hope that the good writers like Nick call a spade a spade, rather than to continue to offer time-worn excuses for their lack of resolve. WE loyal fans deserve more!

Can't knock THIS trade. It worked. But it is the only one this FO has accomplished in Three Years. Oh, I forgot the brilliant acquisition of Dyson. And, of course, there was the addition of Sergei Romo who instantly filled the Twins' need for a second shut down reliever. For a team unwilling to take the plunge into the top tier of FA, how do you explain their inability to try the trade market? Is this Terry Ryan II? Remember Terry, he who could never give up a prospect for a meaningful midseason addition that might have improved our chances for at least one playoff victory in the aughts. Falvine has brought excitement to the TC but they have not shown the moxie and ability to take risks that separates the top execs from mediocrity. True, we have graduated from dumpster diving to nibbling at the edges. Let's see how that technique gets us another champioship.

Sorry Ted, but this just doesn't pass the smell test. The Wonder Boys have made exactly one - count them, one - trade of any significance in three years of stewardship. Granted it was a good one - landing Odo for practically nothing. But yet, that is a paucity of trade activity, isn't it? While you might point out they contributed 7 new players to the 40 man by their dump "trades", how does the MAJOR LEAGUE RETURN look on those? Wouldn't Escobar and Pressley fit in nicely to the current roster? Twin managment, both Ryan and Falvine, have proven timid in their trading abilities. You might even say inept when you look at the big bullpen pickup this year(Dyson)! True, Falvine's reign is still ongoing, but their legacy in trades and free agency is still very much in question. As everyone has noted, the window is wide open, now what? Are we really going to be content with one series and out? And while FA is certainly the other route to improvement, is the Falvine/Ryan method of waiting until spring training for the low-hanging fruit to fall still acceptable? For once, why can't this franchise identify the one or two difference makers needed to push the team into serious World Series contention, make preeemptive strikes early and land the big fish rather than wait for the difference makers to be taken before striking. When the moribund White Sox show their mettle and seriousness by beating the market to Grandal by signing him early, why can't the Twins identify those key cogs in FA to playoff success early and strike. Sure they may have to overpay a bit but 28 years of futility is a convincing argument to go for the brass ring, especially with a squad that won 101 games. I, for one, am tired of Twins timidity! We had a great chance at midseason to put our foot on Cleveland by making some significant mid-season trades, but whiffed, letting Cleveland back into the race. We got wiped out in the playoffs(again), partly due to the lineups' collective hand around their throats, but also because the Wonder Boys didn't pull the trigger on a Greinke or other available starters, nor did they heal a bleeding bulletin. Duffys' five inherited runners scored in the playoffs, Littell's meltdown, and Dobnak's predictable start in Yankee Stadium were all major factors in the expected playoff swansong. Nibbling around the edges is no longer acceptable! We have a strong lineup, but it won't be enough to get us over the hump, Mr. Falvey. Time to pay back your loyal fan base and earn your extension. No time to rest on your laurels.

Nice blueprint Nick. Love that you are not willing to stand pat in the bullpen, adding three new arms. Pomeranz and Bretances would be great additions. I simply do not trust May and Duffy to step into 7th and 8th inning roles seamlessly, particularly against top lineups in critical situations. A big no on Iglesias, even for Rosario or Balazovic. No need to trade a regular or conceivably our best future rotation prospect for a reliever. The two additions mentioned above would be adequate; a third arm like Will Smith would be a bonus. This organization has utterly failed to develop ace-like starters and right now only Balazovic looks like a good possibility. Big thumbs up for Baumgartner, who would slot in as a #1 above a good, not great, Berrios. But Twins will have to overpay to get him to come east. Let's see how serious the Twins are about taking the next step up. If they fail on either MadBaum or Wheeler, that answers the question. And bringing back Odo and Pineda should be no brainers. Very solid #2-4 hurlers! Again, big failure by FO not to achieve these three additions. Not at all worried about #5 spot with these 4. Castro also seems like no-brainer if he's interested in a backup role. Only other move I would like to see is move Sano to 1B and sign either Moose or Donaldson to play 3rd. This way we slightly improve infield defense and maintain a strong lineup. Think this addition needed to offset what could be a precipitous decline from 2019 lineup.

So what happened to the Duff man in ALDS? Five inherited runners; five scored! Sorry, Duffy has always been vulnerable to giving up the bomb at the most inopportune time and did not disappoint against the Yankees. No, I'm not discounting his improvement in the second half of 2019, but until he shows he can dominate when it really counts against top offenses, color me sceptical. The Twins still have a need for at least one(and preferably two) late inning shutdown arms going forward.

Nice discussion! And a needed one, too! My two cents: 1. Realistically, for all the good reasons listed by previous posters, there is no chance the Twins will land any of the elite FA starters available. It's just not in the DNA of this franchise(and Falvine has no doubt absorbed this lesson all too well). 2. A Wheeler is not going to move the needle. He is not an ace, but a good #3-type starter - and maybe less in the AL. Rare has been the pitcher transferring from the NL to AL and improving performance. Maybe once in a blue moon. 3. The Twins have no current starter capable of shutting down a high powered offense in a critical game. Berrios is a good #2 or more likely #3, but has never demonstrated consistent ability to deliver an ace-like performance in a big game. And to think at this stage in his career that he can make meaningful strides to stepping up in big games is nothing more than wishful thinking. 4, Even signing Odor and Pineda - which is such an obvious move if the Twins want to even come close to repeating their successful regular 2019 season - will not lead to any more success in the playoffs. They are unproven in big situations and likely what you have seen is what you will get going forward - good, solid pitchers but not a big improvement over Berrios. 5. The farm system offers little in the way of near term hope in improving this squad's playoff capabilities, especially with the organization's abject failure in developing any starting rotation players. Granted, Falvey has made many organizational; changes but there is still no one on the horizon who looks like a sure-fire #1 0r 2, at least for the next 2-3 years. 6. The only chance for really improving this rotation to playoff caliber is by a major trade, which will probably mean trading one of our two top prospects, as well as a bona fide major leaguer, like Sano, Kepler, Rosario, or Buxton. Fortunately our lineup is strong now, we have some promising OF/1B/DH prospects that might fill the void adequately, and we have the payroll room to go after a high-salaried star. The big question mark is whether Falvine are big enough risk takers to accomplish this. Their inactivity at the trade deadline indicates not, even though the now legendary window was wide open. Will the humiliation of the first round exit spur them to more aggressive behavior? That is the big offseason question.

In theory I would agree, but with so many more pressing needs in the rotation and bullpen, weakening the lineup by dropping Cron and moving Sano leaves a big void at 3B. There is no minor leaguer ready to take over there and only Gonzales could slide in to a semi-permanent third basement, thereby severely weakening the bench and team flexibility. Better to resign Cron for one year and hope that one of he top minor leaguers is ready later in the year or 2021.

Can't wait for THE GAME!! Very interested in seeing the lineup. Kepler, Gonzales and Garver better all be in there to give Twins a chance. Must express concern about Berrios instead of Odo, who pitched well in Twin's only victory this year in the Bronx. Granted he didn't fare so well at Target, but as you say Nick, this first game win is critical, particularly to a Twins team that must get this NY yoke off their back. Berrios has the tools to shut down this lineup and last 6-7 innings but does he have the mentality to pitch well in such a pressure-packed situation? His record is very sketchy here; his last playoff appearance showed how the Yank's patient lineup could get to him. No knockout blows but too many baserunners. Let's say, he would not be my first choice(or second if Pineda available). Odorizzi would have been a better choice - better down the stretch, perhaps a little more mental nfortitude. We'll see soon!

You're right, gotta give these younguns some time to develop. But I have to admit I have very little faith they will turn into positive replacements next year or in the future. They just haven't shown much to warrant optimism. Graterol is intriguing, but unless he develops a third out pitch, looks like he's destined to land in the bullpen. So let's call him a promising, but largely, big question mark. As exciting as the DH sweep was, it doesn't really change the odds against us in Round 1 of the playoffs, probably against Houston. We have no one of the caliber of Verlander, Coles, or Greinke. That is going to be a major, but not insurmountable obstacle to advancing, even if we are completely healthy. There is just no overlooking the crushing loss of Pineda in a playoff. I actually like our chances better against the Yanks with their inferior rotation, but that might be getting a little ahead of myself. Looking to next year's rotation, they must sign both Odo and Pineda. We have no one else of that quality in our system. Hoping for a major FA signing is purely wishful thinking. This organization has never shown the desire to outbid other teams in FA. So, will this FO risk trading one or two top prospects plus a regular to add quality to the staff? That will be the big question of the offseason. Based on their three year track record, one has to be very sceptical,I'm afraid.

What a difference a day makes! Great start by Smeltzer, followed by outstanding relief help/bullpen managment by Rocco. And finally, the bats came alive in Game 2 just in time. Hard to say who is Twins' MVP? Kepler, Polanco, Cruz, Sano, Garver, Rogers? Any one of these guys merit consideration. Best thing from DH sweep: standout bullpen. Smeltzer, Littell, Duffy, Romo, Graterol, May and Rogers. Boy was I wrong on Graterol(at least for one day). He could be key to a dominant bullpen, if not this year, then next. Coming down a bit from the high, the only negative was Thorpe. Can we add him to list of failed prospects: Romero, Gonzales, Stewart? Looks like mgt. sees Graterol in the bullpen, so what rising starters are left in the organization? Maybe Balazovic, but some analysts see him in the bullpen, too. So still on my wish list : this organizatiopn still has a lot to prove before they can compare to Cleveland in developing major league starters. We seem to have overcome that weakness this year, but if the Twins are going to move into the elite circle, they must develop some all-star-type MLB starters to augment their stellar offense if we are going to break this 28 year drought. But, hats off for now - this has been an exciting ride!!

Well, we're down to nail-biting time. This weekend's series can likely determine both Cleveland's and the Twins' fate for the season. A sweep by either team likely spells the end for the losing team. Pretty obvious for Cleveland if they're on the losing end, but almost as obvious for a reeling Twins team headed in the wrong direction. That's just reality. Even if the Twins manage to sneak in to a WC game, their chances against the A's or Rays, both of whom are headed in the right direction lately, would appear dim indeed. But this article in today's NYT : https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/13/sports/baseball/shane-bieber-indians-pitchers.html really gets to the difference in the two organizations' prospects. Despite trading Bauer, losing Kluber, Carrasco, and Salazar to injuries/illness, Cleveland has been able to maintain one of the best rotations in the league, certainly far stronger at present than the Twins. Bauer has emerged as an ace, far better than Berrios now, Clevinger is close behind, and Plesac and Civale have performed far better than any of our #3,4 or 5 starters(now that Pineda has taken himself out of the equation. Even Plutko has provided stability as a #5 starter. And now even though Hand is down, their newest arrival, James Karinchak, has been looked at as his replacement as soon as next year. And what have the Twins come up with for reinforcements? One can say, a big fat zero, at least compared to the Indians' newcomers. The failed list is distressingly long: Romero, Gonzales, Stewart, et. al. - none of whom can be relied on to pitch even one inning down the stretch. As we enter today's doubleheader, perhaps the best we could hope for are Thorpe and Smeltzer, neither of whom having given much indication of success in big games like today. Part of the problem is that Rocco and company have not given them much opportunity to start, but the far bigger problem is this organizations' utter failure to draft/develop major league starters, especially when compared to Cleveland. And today we hear that Alcala may be called up. Belatedly, the org. switched him to the bullpen after failing miserably as a starter. So now with 7 relief innings under his belt at AAA, he is being brought up in the biggest series of the year. Haven't we seen what happens when someone(read Graterol) is thrust into a critical game without any prior major league experience: a crushing extra inning loss to the Indians at home to start a critical three game series. I'm not going to predict the standings come Monday morning, but must confess to be a doubter as of now. The FO cannot be blamed for the long-standing weakness in Minnesota's pitching development and the loss of Pineda, but they passed on an opportunity at the trade deadline to be agressive in acquiring much needed help. Wouldn't Stroman or Minor have made all the difference? And after three drafts under Falvine, do any pitching prospects look ready to emerge next year to supplement our offensive prowess? Yes, the bullpen looks a bit stronger (no thanks to damaged goods Dyson) but that's because the re-emergence of May and Duffy has counterbalanced Rocco's shockingly poor bullpen (mis)managment. We should all be distraught if this record-setting offensive team fails to make the playoffs. It would be a crushing blow to the fan base and even more so, because all the stars aligned this year for surprising success. Can we expect a repeat next year?

Responding to Supfin: Thanks for comments! Agree that the lineup basically looks solid going into next year, especially the outfield! Outfield depth in minors looks good,too, which should motivate FO to trade someone like Rosario(and prospects) for a solid rotation guy. I'm not as high on our IF as you, mainly because of the below average D. Sano and Polanco are below average fielders and there are no immediate replacements. Sano is better at 1B and Polanco maybe at 2B, but then who takes over those two vital positions? Arraez deserves a spot, but he is below average at SS/3B. Perhaps if Lewis was ready they could play him at SS, Polanco at 2B and Gonzales at 3B with Arraez the super utility player. Gordon still looks iffy in my judgment. Where I differ is in our rotation prospects. They need a solid top 3 or 4, so signing Pineda and Odorizzi should be a major offseason goal. They should trade for a solid rotation arm, which is doable with OF and catcher depth. Gibson and Perez do not belong on a contending staff. Not one minor league pitcher at the AA or AAA level has performed at a level, either in the minors or in small major league trials, to justify optimism in their major league future. Gonzales and Romero are no longer prospects. Smelzer and Thorpe are the best chances for 2020 but neither has looked consistent in brief tryouts with the Twins. I suppose Graterol and Balazovisc are the most likely difference makers longer term but certainly not next year and only problematically in following years given the lack of success this organization has had developing top starters. In closing,just a comment on the bullpen. This is not nearly the problem area it was earlier this season. Given enough rest, Rogers has been a pretty effective closer. Both Dyson and Romo look to me like solid additions, May and Duffy have improved as the season has progressed and Littell has shown promise. This would be a third priority to me, behind rotation and IF defense. With a couple of major additions in the offseason, this team should be strong contenders. Bottom line: I have little confidence this FO will pull off any "big" moves.

Rosterman, thanks for comments! Just want to emphasize importance of resigning both Odorizzi and Pineda. The upper minors are barren of major-league-ready starters. This is just reality, I'm afraid. Relying on the minors to provide help for the rotation in 2020(and probably 2021) is really a pipe dream. This organization is not going to be a serious bidder for Gerrit Cole, the only ace-potential FA on the market(refer to Yu Darvish negotiations for relevant history). Nor has this FO in 3 years shown any appetite for going big on trades. They remind me of Gibson - nibble, nibble, nibble. Yes, give them credit for buying low on Odorizzi, Pineda and maybe Perez(jury still out on that one). But trading a regular position player or top prospect seems off the board for this group, I'm afraid. Maybe they'll come to their senses this offseason and trade for an established pitcher like Baumgartner or Snell, even if it means giving up a regular like Rosario(first choice), Garver(trade at highest value?) or even Sano(much less likely after his resurgence but should be considered if he fetches a top starter). Platoon, particularly like your comment on too many holes for one season acquisitions to fill. That is reality, but with the addition of one starter like Greinke or even Baumgartner, there is little doubt that in a one game or short playoff series, our chances to advance would be greatly improved. You win that all-important first game and the odds are in your favor to advance. As things stand now, our odds look slim and none in a short series against Yanks or Astros, either of whom will be our first playoff opponent should we prevail in the AL Central. When a season like this occurs, you need to go all in. Reward goes to the brave, not the meek. I understand the FO desire to build a perpetual contender, not a one-trick pony. I just have little faith in a Twins organization, both past and present, that has demonstrated little ability to draft and develop top notch starting pitching. Hope I'm wrong, but why do so many of our young phenoms flame out at the higher levels?

2019 has been an exhilarating ride. This is easily the best Twins team since 2010(and arguably, since 2006). While success is by no means assured this year, suffice it to say that 2019 has brought us to the cusp of serious playoff contention. While recent erratic play, particularly in the rotation and in the field, has tempered our chances for advancement , most of us still feel pretty comfortable about seeing playoff games in Target Field this year. We have a whole month to go, but as of today, I believe our chances of making the playoffs are better than 50%. With that said, my concerns are for the future. Is this success sustainable? Right now, I have my doubts, for several reasons: 1. In a way 2019 is a fluke in the AL Central. The Indians have been beset by horrific injuries: Kluber, Carrasco, Lindos, now Ramirez. They traded away Bauer, easily their #1 or 2 starter this year, and yet still have enough minor league pitching depth to take 3 of 4 from the Twins in Minnesota and are hanging in there despite 7 straight games against the NY teams. They lost Brantley to FA and yet they have managed to have one of the major's top offenses post All Star. Kudos to Francona and the Indians' player development staff for surviving such hits and still be a solid contender for the playoffs. Next year, with better health, this is still a formidable team! 2. The remainder of the AL Central is woeful, but this is not likely next year. The Sox, with some great young hitters(Roberts could be the best of them all), some solid holdovers(Abreu, Anderson, McCann), and an emerging rotation with a bonafide ace in Giolito, a rapidly improving Lopez, a solid veteran in Nova and two potential stars in Kopech and Cease, are bound to be more competitive next year. They are no longer pushovers and will be a contender at least for a WC in 2020. You heard it here first. 3. The Twins historic offense year is just not sustainable. Too many players are having career years. Is it likely this will reoccur next year? Sure, the Twins have rising stars in Buxton, Sano and Kepler, but who else do we consider future stars? Is Garver really this good? Is Polanco's first half as good as it's going to get. Nelson Cruz will be 40 next year, etc., etc. Yes, we will likely have a solid lineup next year, but hardly the overpowering one that showed up in 2019. This type of home run surge is just unsustainable. I would feel much better if we had more consistent hitting rather than an all or nothing attack. Arraez has been a great new addition, but he's already sliding a bit. Has the league started figuring him out? Are there any other minor leaguers who figure to have the same impact next year as Arraez has? 4. As most TD readers have noted, the Twins' rotation looks very shaky for 2020. Berrios is showing his true colors as a good but inconsistent starter. He is nowhere near an ace, which is why I and others pleaded with the FO to pull out all the stops to acquire a top starter at the trade deadline. Does anyone expect the Twins rotation to hold up to the Yankees or Astros' lineups in October? Next year is far shakier without Odorizzi and Pineda, arguably our two best starters now. Heaven help us if the FO decides not to re-sign both these guys. Gibson doesn't deserve an extension and the jury is still out on Perez. Has anyone stood out in the upper minors this year? The Ryan regime was a colossal failure in developing pitching and while Falvine hasn't been around long enough, their decision to sacrifice a #1 pitcher for Lewis was a real leap of faith to an organization with a lack of big-time pitching prospects. Sure we have some promising position-player prospects in the minors now but pitching wins championships - a fact proven over and over again. This organization's lack of success in developing either rotation stalwarts or lights-out stoppers must give even the most optimistic doubt they can do it in the future. Too bad spending money on a free agent or two is just not in this franchise's DNA! All this is not to say that the Twins will not be competitive next year, but do you really think their chances will be better than the present? The window was wide open this year, but Falvey decided to be cautious at the trade deadline despite having sizable payroll space and a nice surplus of prospects to trade. You don't have many chances in this game for the brass ring - a fact that Falvey and company might rue in future years.

Nick, always enjoy your summaries, especially when the Twins go 5-1. However, I should point out as a Chicago resident that the Sox, after a post all star swoon, are playing much better of late and are by no means a pushover anymore. Nova, Lopez and Giolito have been pitching at least as well as the Twins top three starters recently against some pretty tough competition(Houston). The Twins have not been playing particularly well at home and I think they will have a tough series this week against the Sox. I would be happy taking 2 out of 3 from the Sox, but won't be surprised if this is reversed. Just saying, Twinkies cannot afford to take any of these teams lightly and good pitching shuts down good hitting.

At the game yesterday. Lots of Twin fans! A few observations: 1. Though not helped by Polanco's first error, Gibson was excruciating to watch. His repertoire consists of sinkers in the dirt and 93mph fastballs, with surprisingly poor control. Had no strikeout pitch. Just have no confidence in this guy shutting down a good hitting team. Rocco was right in removing him after five. 2. Baldelli's bullpen usage is erratic. If your starter can only go five, you must have confidence in at least one middle reliever to go 2 innings. Bringing Dyson in the sixth was just a waste. We are 120 games into the season and there is no pattern to the mgr's bullpen usage. Of course, he was dealt a poor hand by the FO to begin with, but Dyson/Romo are experienced relievers who should be saved for late innings. Mgr. has to learn who can ( and can't) pitch on consecutive days! Good relievers will blow games now and then(Pressly gave up GS homer yesterday to WS!), but good bullpen managment involves setting roles and sticking to it. After 3/4 of the season, there is still no clear pattern. I blame the FO and Mgr. for that. 3. Polanco's errors are piling up. He is just too erratic - good plays followed by awful ones. Can't see him as SS on a playoff team, nor does the roster give hope for someone else taking over. As many have pointed out, infield defense has cost this team games and remains a sore spot. Amazing that our high draft picks like Lewis and Gordon do not seem to be considered by mgt. to be major league SS's. One person's opinion, but right now this is not a playoff team. They would have to back into a spot if someone else falters. Rotation is a mess as is bullpen. Home run or bust offense not enough to carry them into October, with these other weaknesses. Hope I'm wrong, but......