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d-mac

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Everything posted by d-mac

  1. d-mac
    All the other orgs don't have all prospects, either. And they draft college seniors too. It's not a one time thing where they just happen end up with the oldest players in a particular year. It's year after, year that they have the oldest players in the Appy league, and have been among the leaders in the Midwest League too (the exception being 2012 and 2013, respectively because of the prospects). It's a trend. It's clear that that the Twins do things differently than the rest of baseball when it comes to development and at this point it should be painfully obvious that it is not working.
  2. d-mac
    Ugh, formatting. Also, there is no reason that the guys that played college ball in the PAC12 and the ACC, should be starting their careers in the Appy League, whether or not they were to picks- it has inferior competition to the top tier of college conferences.
  3. d-mac
    The nice thing is, we can look up age stats. BBref has weighted pitcher/hitter ages for every team in the minors: CR Weighted Hitter Age MDWL Median CR Weighted Pitcher Age MDWL Median 2015 21.7 21.45 22.6 Oldest 21.8 2016 21.6 21.65 23.0 Oldest 21.65 ET Weighted Hitter Age APPY Median ET Weighted Pitcher Age Appy Median 2015 20.7 20.55 21.6 Oldest 20.55 The Twins had the oldest pitchers in both the Midwest League and Appy League in 2015 and again in the Midwest League this year. In fact the Twins' pitchers were 0.4 years older than the #2 team in the Appy league last year and 0.3 and 0.5 years older than the #2 team in 2015 and 2016, respectively in the Midwest league last year. The E-Town Twins were also the oldest pitchers AND hitters in 2014. Interesting to note, that the Cards, Rays, and Astros all have affiliates in the Midwest and Apply leagues. They (with a few exceptions), were in the youngest half of each the 6 lists and never in the oldest 20%. Do you release some players? Well if its clear they can't master A ball well enough to make A+, then why keep them around? Or, why not add an additional affiliate? The Twins are tied for the fewest number minor league affiliates, I don't think there is any reason why we couldn't add a short season A ball team.
  4. d-mac
    Just look at all the college guys from last year's draft. Why they are still in rookie ball at 22, 23 is beyond me.
  5. d-mac
    Pretty surprised about the lack of love for Polanco. As a major league ready ready bat, I don't understand why Gordon and Gonsalves are ahead of him, neither of whom have played above A+ yet nor are among the top prospects in baseball.
  6. d-mac
    There was plenty of room for both. But the FO seemed to disagree.
  7. d-mac
    Duffey may be a better as a bullpen guy, but I'd like to point out that his peripherals are pretty decent. He has an xFIP of 4.01 and a SIERA of 4.11. Which is better than anyone to make a start for the Twins this year except Nolasco and Milone. Despite Jay may proving to be an exception to this, that strategy of using top picks on college relievers isn't working out too well, is it?
  8. d-mac
    Well, who's fault is it that they didn't have any other options, or that he's not back in AAA already? At this point they are doing detrimental damage to his career.
  9. d-mac
    I posted this on the minor league thread today: Unfortunately, I and few others called out the promotion for being way too early. Since June 7th (13G, 48 PA) Buxton has hit .093/.149/.209 and struck out in 43.8% of his plate appearances. Food for thought.
  10. d-mac
    Unfortunately, I and few others called out the promotion for being way too early. Since June 7th (13G, 48 PA) Buxton has hit .093/.149/.209 and struck out in 43.8% of his plate appearances.
  11. d-mac
    About damn time!
  12. d-mac
    Well I'm glad it sounds like they'll be able to get Balazovic signed despite Kirilloff going for exactly slot. I hope they can get Hackimer Lopez at bargain basement prices, otherwise there won't be much space to throw money at some of the late round HS players.
  13. d-mac
    He had a wRC+ of 120 vs RHP and 82 vs LHP in 2010, his first year with an significant playing time in the majors. Plus he was primarily a catcher then.
  14. d-mac
    That OBP leaves something to be desired. The major league average OBP this season is .320. For his career Arcia has a wRC+ of 115 vs RHP and 71 vs LHP. John Jaso, a very successful left handed platoon bat has a career wRC+ of 127 vs RHP and 57 vs LHP. Fangraphs doesn't have any split data prior to 2002, but David Ortiz had a wRC+ vs RHP of 139 and 63 vs LHP his last season with the Twins. Arcia just does not provide enough value with the bat to offset his defensive limitations or his struggles vs righties.
  15. d-mac
    So my point is, other than the poor roster management that got us to this place, I'm not too bummed out. He was never going to be an above replacement level player with the Twins. Replacement level or worse players is not something this team needs more of.
  16. d-mac
    I'm going to be the contrarian here and say that this is probably what's best for Arcia. I doubt the Twins were either going to use him properly (as a platoon bat) and/or provide him the proper instruction in order to correct his contact issues. Nothing in this organization's history has shown they can do either, never mind doing both. Another team may very well unlock his potential, but it was never going to be the Twins. In nearly 1,000 PA's Arcia has provided -0.5 fWAR, he has only had one season with above replacement value. And with the logjam of 1B/DH/RF types on this team- there just isn't space going forward for another strikeout prone, defensively limited, one dimensional player.
  17. d-mac
    Exactly, the more "in contention" a team is, the more valuable each additional win is. To teams that are losing 90+ games, it doesn't make sense to spend a bunch of money for incremental improvements. The Twins could literally field a team of replacement level players for a fraction of their current payroll, and there wouldn't be a large drop off in performance, simply because they are so bad. A good proxy for Front Office skill is $ per win- it's a great measure for efficiently allocated resources. For example, the Cubs opening day payroll is about $155 mil and they are on pace to win 111 games, or $1,396,000 per win. The Twins opening day payroll is about $105 mil, and are on pace to win 50 games or $2,100,000 mil per win. However, it tends to get skewed a bit for teams that are better or worse than most teams over a significant period, because of diminishing returns- marginal wins at the bottom end of the scale are easy to come by and can be had for low cost, wins at the high end are difficult to come be and can be expensive. In this spirit I pulled every team's record between 2011-2016 (from BBref) and took every team that had 412 or fewer wins (the number of wins the Cubs had over the period) and a few other teams mentioned in this thread and pulled their opening day payroll data (from USAToday) over the examined time period and calculated their $/win numbers; Ordered from most efficient to least: Hou 350 wins- $1,026,039.71/win SD 401 wins- $1,032,446.07/win MIL 433 wins- $1,070,328.16/win ATL 444 wins- $1,072,620.36/win MIA 385 wins- $1,105,630.14/win ARI 428 wins- $1,124,407.46/win CIN 432 wins- $1,352,287.43/win SEA 410 wins- $1,420,061.14/win COL 377 wins- $1,423,026.59/win MIN 368 wins- $1,569,591.58/win CHW 409 wins- $1,570,945.70/win CHC 412 wins- $1,629,403.12/win With the current trajectories of each team, it's hard to argue that the Cubs have done a worse job than the Twins. I could see the argument claiming the White Sox FO to have done a worse job than the Twins, however Fangraphs projects the White Sox to finish with 80 wins and the Twins with 65 (while only being outspent by only $7mil).
  18. d-mac
    Hey, at least she didn't visit Detroit! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZzgAjjuqZM
  19. d-mac
    This is quite brilliant! https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4018/4707656816_0a5ec48321.jpg
  20. d-mac
    Wisconsin is too busy churning out NFL caliber linemen.
  21. d-mac
    I don't think Molitor was ever the coach while Willingham was here.
  22. d-mac
    At this point its pattern with the young players. When looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... It's probably a duck. Either the scouting has done a bad job identifying amateurs that can be disciplined hitters or the player development has failed in that regard. Those are the only options. Pick your choice.
  23. d-mac
    https://cdn.discourse.org/boingboing/uploads/default/original/3X/7/c/7c0008a149340e1f88c21ecca456c68ac24ac184.gif
  24. d-mac
    I'm surprised that got Baddoo under slot too. I bet Miranda comes in under slot. The PR draftees outside the first round always tend to.
  25. d-mac
    I think this is Dozier getting more luck than making any sort of adjustment. His BABIP jumped from .208 and .242 in April and May to .357 so far in June. He's hitting roughly the same number of line drives, and slightly more ground balls and fewer fly balls. He's had a slight uptick in Hard Hit % and a slight decrease of Soft Hit %. But he is pulling the ball significantly more and going up the middle and oppo significantly less than early in the season. He seems like he has learned nothing, but is finally receiving favor from the BABIP gods, which had smited him early in the season. His BABIP splits by contact type are about what they were last year, so I'd expect him to hit around what his current triple slash is now- .232/.324/.379
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