d-mac

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't discount the analysis on Hu- he very may well be Liam Hendriks 2.0 (by the way has had some decent success in the bullpen). I'm saying that Stewart at this point is less of a prospect than Hu is, and likely will be worse than Hu even if Hu is the second coming of Hendriks. FWIW, steamer projects Hu if he were called up today to the majors to put up ERA, FIP numbers in the mid 4's, Stewart gets a projection in the mid 5's. Also, when the stats do not back up scouting reports over several minor league seasons, discounting those scouting reports is justified. Sort of off topic- but every statistical study I have seen of the "Are taller pitchers really better?" question said there is no significant difference in innings per start, innings per year, bullpen appearances, K rate. BB rate, or HR rate.

You're are quoting a scouting report from 2 years ago, when he was 20 and less physically mature? *Insert Yao "please" meme here*

WPA has ZERO, let me repeat ZERO predictive ability. It has ZERO reflection of process.

A palmball is really just a different way of throwing a change-up- it has more sink than armside run of a circle change.

If the Rays are a pitching disaster, then what do you call the Twins?

Hu is probably ready for a bump to AAA soon, FWIW. Secondly, I'd completely disagree that Hu is not a better prospect at this point- his ceiling might be lower, but his floor is a lot higher- I know the prospect traditionalists turn up their nose a high floor guy, but in terms of expected outcomes- they are every bit of the prospects that guys with the high upside are. Gonsalves for one has never really been a top rated prospect and he has all of one start in AA. As for Stewart- he's a non prospect at this point as far as I'm concerned. He might reach his potential and monkeys might fly out of my butt. What I'm saying is that the likelihood of him reaching potential is not significantly different than zero at this point. Very few major league average starters (not even talking about front-end guys) struck out fewer than a batter per inning in the high minors. Most back-end guys still had K/9's in the 7-8 range. If Stewart is in the 4-5 range, then I think it will be very unlikely that he'll get anything more than a cup o' coffee.

No, I do believe I am very much not wrong. I will grant you stats from rookie ball mean very little, however A+ and AA numbers mean a fairly decent amount, even moreso for pitchers than hitters. Numbers that matter for pitchers' success: K%, BB%, HR rate, age relative to competition. Hu K% is 50-70% larger than Stewart's, plus he walks about 10% fewer batters. Stewart has a slight advantage in HR/9 (slight advantage not by much, both are excellent in this category) and he is 11 months younger (so at least he's got that going for him). Let's frame it this way: How many pitchers have had success in the majors (or even reached the majors) after they put up a K% that was 30% below league average? League K% in the minors is generally between 17-20% for every level- Stewart's AA rate is 12%, so I'm being generous. As to your point about not having an out pitch- that may be absolutely true, but if Hu lacks a true out pitch, then what does Stewart have if his K% is at least 50% of Hu's at equivalent levels?

Stewart would be lucky to have a career as good as Slowey's. Slowey had a K/BB ratio of 11.0 in A+ and 4.0 in AA; Stewart had a K/BB ratio of about 2.0 in A+ and 1.40 in AA. But don't let the numbers get in the way of a good narrative!

Bad Scott baker would be our best starter right now. Not to mention, he was really turning into a heck of pitcher before he got injured. His issue was that he was an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Between 2007-2011 he had an ERA- of 96, 80, 99, 108, 76 and an FIP- of 90, 90, 95, 96, 86. That's a high end #3, low end #2.

There is so much win in this post.

Nope, he's been at FTM all year.

I hate when people say this- At this point it has become almost a meme. Mention the stats of a minor leaguer that "old school prospect folks" don't think very highly of and that line is thrown out reflexively. The human mind will see things that aren't there and make connections between things that aren't correlated. Without data, the mind's interpretation of reality is unreliable at best. The great thing about baseball is that there is very rarely an area in the known universe where we find a closed system with a limited, known and measureable set of outcomes from discrete (or semi-discrete) events, like in baseball. A stat line can actually tell us a heck of a lot. There are certain things players do in the minors that lead to success at the major league level that will show up in their minor league stat line. For example, pitchers that have higher K% and lowe BB% in the minors have a higher probability of not only reaching the majors, but also success in the majors. Hu has a much higher probability of major league success with his 22% K% and 7% BB% in AA and 22% and 6% in A+ than does Stewart with his 12% and 9% rates in AA and 15% and 8% in A+, regardless of how good Stewart looks doing it.

Just to toot my own horn a bit- I've been calling this trade a bad one from day one.

I'd really like to see him have a different catcher than Suzuki for a while, and then see what happens. Gibson has the stuff. He just needs someone that can frame his sinker for strikes and a better understanding of how to set up hitters.

And a catcher that can frame pitches.

Really? It doesn't take a crystal ball to know the Twins aren't contending next year. Their record is bad, their run differential is bad. It'll take a lot to overcome that. Last year was a total mirage, they went 20-7 in one month. The goal shouldn't be try to be competitive and hope for a year like last year. It should be about building a consistent, dominate, winning team.

If I was running the team, that's certainly how I'd do it. We shouldn't need to rush prospects either. I'd be ok dumpster diving and targeting the reclamation projects in free-agency and rotating through some quad-A players for another year or two if need be until some of the prospects establish themselves. The rotation for next year should be Gibson, May, Berrios, Duffey, and X.

I'm of the mindset that we aren't contending next year and likely won't in 2018, either. We should take whatever opportunity comes our way to to acquire more young talent, especially when the player to be moved likely won't figure to be a part of the next contending team.

Does it matter? This team isn't contending in 2017.

I think people are vastly overestimating how good of a pitcher Santana is. He had a xFIP of 4.42 last year and has an xFIP of 4.60 this year. He hasn't had a K/9 above 7.0 in the AL since 2011 and has only achieved a K/BB ratio above 3.0 twice in his career. Furthermore he hasn't had an FIP- in the AL since 2008. If some team wants to overpay and give us something for him, the Twins need to jump on this trade.

They do, it's called a college degree.

The main problem is, we end up with a 40 man roster crunch, when the Twins are forced to protect players that haven't played much in the upper minors, thus having to use up options before they reach the majors, so they end up rushing them to the majors, before they are fully ready. A secondary problem is that when we end up with players in rookie or A ball that dominate, we hear the excuse that there is no room to promote said player. If a short season A team is added, that'll give the team more flexibility to promote/demote players without having to release players or wait for injuries. Keeping a player at a level that he has mastered for a few extra months, has very little added benefit for the player and only lengthens the ETA to the majors. When it comes to player development, time needs to be viewed as a resource. I think it is a fair criticism that many of the college draftees are actually not challenged. You really have to look further than LaMonte Wade. He put up a wRC+ of 160 with a BB/K of 1.35 in the Appy league after being drafted. That league is just not much of a challenge for college players out of major conferences, whether we're talking about an early round junior or a late round senior. It's ok for junior college guys, players from small colleges, or high school players that haven't made the jump to A ball yet. Again, the way Twins are doing things is not working. Almost none of the players come up ready to contribute- sure a few may catch lightning in a bottle- but that never lasts once the league adjusts. Despite having one of the top rated farm systems the past few years, this team is on pace to lose 110 games. Surely, you must see the problem here.

Of course, this team needs to sell high when it can. Trade Nunez, bring up Beresford. Trade Abad, bring up Chargois. Trade Dozier, bring up Polanco. Trade Plouffe if for nothing other than to clear space for Sano. Could we get anything for Suzuki at this point with his resurgence?

I definitely would not sign for $1K. There is no penalty for the team to go to $100k, so I'd hold out for more and if the team doesn't budge I'd take my college degree and get a job that pays much more.

How anybody signs for less than $100k blows my mind.