d-mac

I'm not sure where to post my thoughts on the deadline- I've been M.I.A. for the past few days, since my father-in-law suddenly passed away over the weekend, so I've been disconnected from the Twins and the baseball world for a bit. I liked the Nunez trade, we sold high on a player that doesn't fit into the picture long-term and got back a young, cost controlled SP option for the next few seasons. However, I'm definitely of the dissenting opinion in that I'm not a fan of either of the Abad or Nunez trades. Here's why: These moves didn't clear 40-man roster space that we needed and seem to be geared toward competing next year, which seems like utter fantasy. Despite what I think were fair returns, I don't agree with the direction they take the team. While Abad got a C+ prospect close to the majors, It doesn't really fill an area of need- we've got plenty of our own internal relief options for next year and beyond. Chargois and Hildenberger look like they can be real late inning weapons as early as next year. Not to mention guys like Melotakis who could also help next year. I'd like to see the internal guys be given a chance first- thus I'd have preferred if the Twins would have targeted a player lower in the minors, with more upside and not one that requires a 40-man roster spot. At first glance, I was actually pretty impressed that Antony got creative and was able to move Nolasco, as I figured he'd be dumped in August for a PTBNL and salary relief. However, once I dug into the trade, I didn't like it. We essentially swapped out our starting rotation deadweight for another team's deadweight- I'm sure it's been talked about, but Santiago's peripherals are UGLY. He's an extreme flyball pitcher that walks a lot of batters, has an average K%, allowed lots of hard contact, is going from a top 10 defensive team to a bottom 5 defensive team (Angels are +13 in DRS, Twins -34; Angels +3.4 UZR/150, Twins -4.8), and going to a less pitcher-friendly stadium and division. The only things Santiago has going for him are that he limits line drives and induces infield flies at an above average rate; SIERA has been a little bit kinder to him than xFIP. He might be a marginal upgrade the rest of the year and next year, but that doesn't make up for the fact that he has only two years left of team control, and takes a rotation spot away from either May or Duffey, I would like to see them both get a shot in the rotation for the entire year next year before declaring them to be relievers for the rest of their careers. Yes, I realize Santiago could be non-tendered in the offseason, but when was the last time that the Twins non-tendered the centerpiece of a deadline trade the offseason after acquisition? Are the Twins that enamored with left-handed pitching in their rotation that they are willing to block out younger, cheaper options with more control and more upside? Or are they that delusional that they truly believe that this year is just a blip, and last year's record is more indicative of their true talent level that they are willing to make a marginal upgrade for next year at the expense of the long term future of the rotation? And on top of that we exchanged Meyer, for arguably a lesser prospect: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-prospects-traded-yesterday/ According to Chris Mitchell's new and improved KATOH projection system for minor leaguers, Meyer, despite being slightly older and not-pitching much this year, still likes him better, pegging him to be worth 1.9 WAR over his career, vs 0.4 for Busenitz. Plus, the same criticisms I had for being against acquiring Light in the Abad trade I'd give here. If they were going to include Meyer, I'd have asked for a prospect lower in the minors (and yes, farther away), but with more upside. Furthermore, the fact that they didn't pull the trigger on Suzuki or Kintzler trades, which seemed like relative no-brainers (especially with demand as high as it is for C and RP this year) to me are huge failures. Plus, not selling Santana as pitching is always in demand at the deadline, despite getting Mejia and Santiago as rotation pieces seems incredibly short-sighted and gives additional credence to the idea that the Twins see themselves as competitors next year.

They really played the deadline smart. Despite not being in a clear seller's position, they took advantage of an inflated market and made out like bandits. I wish the Twins would have followed their lead and sold Suzuki, Kintzler, and Santana too.

I would have him rotating around the diamond for the rest of the season. Then trade Dozier in the offseason and Polanco is my starting 2B next year.

Devon Travis is pretty good. Also, Adam Frazier seems like he'll be a young cost controlled piece for the Pirates going forward. Neither would likely be fits for Dozier.

I'd still file that under SSS.

Wouldn't be the first Twin to have this happen. Kennys Vargas says hi!

Ditto, but Dozier strikes me as more of an offseason type trade. Plus, the demand for second base seems weak this year at the deadline, not area of need for contenders.

http://i.imgur.com/7drHiqr.gif?noredirect Happy to oblige, Nothing like Ron Paul on a Thursday/Friday.

The PCL is where pitchers go to die. I'd expect him to knock off .5 ERA in the IL at least.

I didn't catch this until this morning. After the game last night, I spent some quality time with Mrs. D-Mac. This return is definitely better than I had expect to get for Nunez. With one more potential arm for the rotation next year, I wonder if the Twins will be more comfortable moving Santana now? I just hope Berrios and May get their shots before Mejia. Anybody know if is being added to the 40-man?

The counter argument to that is that you'd better not miss on a top 5 pick. As of right now, Stewart looks like a total bust and the jury is still out on Buxton.

Dunno if anybody could, maybe he's injured. His fastball velo is down 1.4 mph this season. He's very much in the Hughes/Duffey mold, that he's mainly a fastball/curveball pitcher without a viable 3rd pitch, so the affects of a decrease in velo is that much more magnified.

I think Duffey and Berrios should be flip-flopped right now. I can see Duffey getting one more shot next year in the rotation and see how that goes. Next year's rotation should be Berrios, May, Gibson, Duffey, (FA high risk/reward type or Wheeler). Duffey's lack of a true third pitch makes will make it difficult for him up here as a starter, but it is not impossible, he could turn into a solid, cost controlled starter. Taking that chance now and next year (since we aren't contending) is worth the risk. But it should not happen at the expense of Berrios or May. FWIW, Duffey's peripherals are not that bad this year, not as good as last year obviously, but his ERA should be in the low 4's. He is giving up harder contact this year, but that doesn't explain an unsustainably low strand rate of 63.6% or a HR/FB of 19.3%. EDIT: He's got redonkulous home/road splits with his HR/FB rate, it's more than 2x higher on the road than home!

That were both minor league free agents in May. And the Rangers gave up a former first round pick. Clearly, Santana is better and should demand a higher return.

Normally, I'm right there with you, but I'm making an exception for Gibson because of his TJ surgery- he is relatively inexperienced (85 starts) and has lower milage on his arm (less than 900 innings of pro ball). Plus he is still relatively cheap, with a few years on control left. The risk of keeping Santana around is much higher than Gibson, IMO. Santana is 5 years older, has over 2600 innings of pro ball and has a nearly identical career xFIP and SIERA to Gibson. Plus, I think it's a bit unfair to blame Gibson for his poor performance in April- he was battling an injury. After Gibson posted an xFIP of 5.72 in April, he put up an xFIP of 3.95 in June and 3.54 in July, which is kinda where he left off last year with an xFIP of 3.47 in September of last year. Santana meanwhile has posted xFIPs of 4.29, 4.17, 5.23, and 4.04.

Again, you're too caught up on the return. Which was the point of my post. Santana is not part of the future. Teams are willing to offers something of value for him now, we should do it. Btw, did you see that the Rangers dealt a former first round pick for a pair of Braves' minor league signings yesterday? Contenders are desperate for pitching this year at the deadline.

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/ac/ac8e1baae8535062e99d1b02ad1d3c82b124ba3aa455a8ad1c1d33b166b79be5.jpg Where did I advocate dumping him for salary relief? Total strawman. My whole post was about trading him for market value. He doesn't fit into the plan, so why not get something of value for him as his market value will never be higher? I never mentioned payroll or draft position once in my post. Go ahead, read it again. I'm waiting... EDIT: I should also mention that I wasn't claiming that anybody was advocating for a king's ransom for Santana, merely that situations like this we shouldn't get hung up on returns- "player x isn't going to net us y, so I'd rather keep x." X just isn't that valuable to us right now, I'd like y, but z is ok because eventually x is going to be of 0 value when it matters.

Who cares who's starting next year? I don't care if it's Dean, Wheeler, or a reclamation project taking the 4-5 spots as long as Berrios, May and Gibson are starting. This team ain't winning next year. Might as well get something of value for a vet that doesn't fit into the picture age-wise. Nobody is stating that we have to win every trade (well, maybe the Twins brass think we have to based on their words and actions the past 5 seasons)- no trades are ever made in a vacuum, or at least they shouldn't be. All we'd like to see is a fair return based on the market for a pitcher like Santana. Trades need to be made with a purpose- for a contender that is dealing a prospect for an upgrade at the ML level, for a team like the Twins that is trading pieces like Santana, Nunez, Suzuki, etc that won't fit into the plans 2-3 years down the road for something that could. Trying to "win" every trade by getting a better return than the other team is a fool's errand. It takes at least two willing parties to make a trade (or any transaction in a marketplace for that matter) both acting in their own self-interest. Unless the other party is a total fool (or desperate) you'll end up paralyzed- indefinitely waiting for your socks to be blown off. It's like the Twins are a store, a veteran baseball player store if you will, and Ervin Santana is a gallon milk they are selling. If the market price for a gallon of milk is $2.50, the Twins could set their price for that gallon of milk at $10, but not too many customers would be willing to pay $10/gallon of milk. Might as well go down the street to the White Sox store. The problem is the milk in and of itself isn't all that valuable to a grocery store, the money is far more desirable (grocery stores can't pay their employees in milk, for instance) and in this case the money is the currency of baseball, prospects.

I like it. I have no idea if that's a reasonable return or not.

I just don't think Santana is that good to where we have to hold onto him. Over his career he's been incredibly inconsistent from year-to-year, he's had a 4.42 xFIP in his Twin's career (he's been lucky), has a mediocre K%, he's been suspended for PEDs, and torn his UCL (but didn't repair it with Tommy John). Oh, and there's this thing called his age. He'll be 35 when Twins are likely contending again in 2018, which is an age when most pitchers are washed up by in post PED baseball.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/rays-phillies-placing-high-asking-prices-on-starters.html http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/white-sox-open-to-moving-james-shields.html Couple of interesting tidbits from the traderumors site that relate to Santana. It looks like the Rays are placing quite the high price on their young, controllable starters and the Phillies are asking for a team's top 5 prospect for a Hellicskon rental. If the asking prices for pitchers remain high, it'll make Santana more appealing. Also, looks like the White Sox are trying to deal James Shields. He's a year older than Santana, under contract through 2018 (with $1 mil buyout, like Santana), and has been fairly awful this year. However, he has a long track record of #2-3 type performances, unlike Santana. If the White Sox manage to move him, the return might be something similar to Santana. Edit: If only the Twins were more open to trading Santana...

Agreed, I like to consider myself statistically fluent. I thought the Nolasco signing was a good one at the time too. I don't think that enough analysis has been done generally in the saber community in regards to pitchers changing leagues. Anecdotally, it appears to me that pitchers going from the NL to AL get penalized more than the gains a pitcher receives going from the AL to NL. Furthermore, #1 and #2 type starters make the transition from NL to AL relatively easily, but #3's turn into #5 types and #4-5 types cannot be effective AL starters.

I'm of the opinion that there needs to be a clean sweep of the front office. So it does worry me.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/central-notes-sale-rosenthal-nunez-antony.html There's this little gem over at mlbtraderumors. Sounds like ownership wants to retain Antony for 2017. Good Lord.

And there is no reason they couldn't throw in some extra cash and make him even more underpaid.