spinowner
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Everything posted by spinowner
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It's easy to picture Arcia hitting 40 dingers a year in the near future. (Same for Vargas and Sano, for that matter.) Gotta find a way to get him in the lineup somehow. I hope the Twins break camp next spring with Arcia, Buxton, Hicks and Rosario as their four outfielders. We oughta be able to do well with that.
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That would be a bold move!
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I can understand why the postseason ban is in place, but I'm not sure whether I agree with it or not. But I want to say this: The fact that players are still being caught using PED's tells me the current penalties are not a sufficient deterrent. In addition to an unpaid suspension I think the player's contract should revert to the major league minimum upon reinstatement. Further, I think the player should lose all service time and the benefits associated with it, including arbitration and free agency rights. That would address the valid criticism of the current system that once a player is elegible for free agency he could juice and improve his performance enough to sign a big contract. Melky Cabrera did exactly that, and he still gets to keep every dollar except what he lost during the suspension. IMHO, he came out way ahead of where he would have been without PED's.
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- ervin santana
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When Pelfrey moved to the rotation I think they figured Stauffer would be the long man. That may still be the plan but because the starters have been on a roll that role has not been needed. I don't know for sure but I'd guess that Stauffer can refuse assignment and become a free agent. If that's the case they need to see what he can do before they consider a DFA. I think he's owed that opportunity. I'm surprised he didn't pitch the ninth on Sunday and/or Monday.
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Here's a thought about a different type of number: Byron Buxton has worn number 7 at every stop in the minors. What number will be on his back when he makes the big club? I wonder if he'd be willing to wear 07 and if there's any rule that would disallow that.
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So is Brian Dozier an inferior baseball player because he failed as a SS and thrived after a move to 2B? No. The argument can be made that the reason the above pitchers failed as starters is because they were being played out of position and needed time to adapt to a new role. And as far as the benefits of pitching three outs going away with nine, I agree that's valid for many pitchers but not all. Mariano Rivera only really had one pitch but he still had a lot of 2-inning appearances because his pitch was so devastating. Obviously, very few relievers are like that, but there are a lot who have 2 very good pitches and should be able to get through 9-12 batters on a frequent basis. I'm not advocating that all teams should scrap the time-honored starter/reliever model that's been employed since forever. It would just be interesting to see what would happen with the right mix of pitchers.
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Your point is well taken but it misses the central idea, which is to have 12 pitchers that are all strong middle relievers and closers. Hughes, Gibson and May would not be on the staff. Every year there are dozens of relievers in the majors with ERA's under 3.00 but only a handful of starters. These are NOT inferior pitchers. If you have pitchers who can perform consistently 2 or 3 innings at a time every third game it would make for a strong staff, at least in theory.
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Oakland rolled the dice last year partly out of desperation because Beane knew it would be their last shot for at least a few years. The Twins, in almost everyone's opinion, have a rosy future. IMHO we should trade a high-level prospect only if we think it gives us an excellent chance to win the WS this year. And I don't see such a trade doing that for us.
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The title of this thread is "Realistic trade return ideas". Any post discussing a trade involving Buxton, Sano or Berrios belongs in a thread entitled "Unrealistic trade return ideas" because I think none of those three will be traded unless another team gives us an unrealistic offer.
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No, Terry Ryan is the savior for signing Pelfrey to that 2-year contract. (And, like almost every other Twins fan, I would never have said such a thing until the last couple weeks.)
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Love having discussions like this. I'll disagree back at you on point one. The Twins have an opportunity to set themselves up for 5-10 years if they manage their prospects properly. I'd consider it a slap in the face to have done the work to be in that position and then give some of it away for a short-term gamble. What I don't want to see is what the Tigers did in 1987. As the trading deadline approached they traded for a veteran pitcher, Doyle Alexander. They wound up losing in the first round of the postseason. And for that outcome they gave up a prospect by the name of John Smoltz. Regarding point two, if the Twins have a fool's gold guy in the minors he's not really a prospect. Trade that guy, of course. Point three is a fair one to make, but I don't think this is a pressing issue. Without naming names I think there are at least five veterans on our 40-man whom we could DFA with little adverse effect on the organization as a whole, even if we get nothing back for them. So we're not at the logjam stage yet. I think it will be at least a year, probably more, before the decisions start to get difficult.
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Bingo. Becoming a good player in baseball is two steps forward, one step back. Or maybe more like twenty-two steps forward, twenty-one steps back. For all but the most exceptional players it takes work, repetition, determination, repetition, patience, repetition, a positive attitude, repetition, etc.
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I don't like the all star game, mainly because it doesn't have the best team from each league. For me to care about the game the following changes will need to be made: Voting is done by players and writers. Broadcasters and fans don't vote. The top two vote getters at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and DH and the top six vote getters in OF are on the team with the top vote getter (top three OF vote getters) starting. The top three starting pitchers and top four relief pitchers make up the pitching staff. Players are required to be on the roster if chosen unless they are on the DL, in which case the player with the next number of votes at that position plays. Players play for the league they are playing in at the time of voting. All three starting pitchers on the roster must have at least three days rest. Managers choose the starting pitchers. Managers are not required to play every player and have full authority on substitutions. The game serves as the tie-breaker for WS home field advantage. WS home field is granted to the representative of the league with had the better record in interleague play. And of course, no one has the authority to declare the game a tie except the umpires, who may do so only in case of rain or an unplayable field. Do the MLB bigwigs care what I think? Of course not. Will these changes ever be made? Of course not. But I do enjoy venting.
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Yes, things could go bad in the future. What if we trade Sano for a top line pitcher and that pitcher gets a concussion? The Twins organization is the goose that is beginning to lay golden eggs. TR's rebuilding plan is maturing as hoped. There are many people who say the Twins farm system has enough good players to keep the Twins in a dominant position for many years. Don't kill the goose for the sake of 2015.
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No trades involving prospects. Don't get impatient. Don't sacrifice years of future performance for an improved chance at the WS this year, or even next. Wait to see who develops the best. I would, however, trade someone like Pelfrey or Nolasco.
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I would not trade any prospects right now. Not any. No matter who we would get back. Not at this stage in the rebuilding process. Do not give up a prospect that we could wind up needing later. Wait another year or so, maybe even two. If and when we have the good problem of too many players succeeding at AAA and the majors, THEN make a trade. Players who are major league ready will return more in a trade and we'll have a better idea of what we need and who is available.
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I didn't say it was predictive, and in fact I'm sure it's not. I'm just trying to find the best way to evaluate how much a player has done to improve his team's chance of winning a game. And my apologies for not including in my original post that I'd also want to compare the actual WPA to the maximum possible WPA. (By the way, I'd like to see an example of a baseball stat that is predictive.)
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This criticism is well taken and has a lot of merit. A player whose team is involved in a lot of close games will have more opportunities to greatly increase WPA. This makes me realize that I didn't finish my thought in my initial post. My idea is not just to measure a player's WPA but also to measure it relative to the highest possible WPA for the situations that the player is involved in. That means a player striking out with two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth would be penalized more for that than for striking out to lead off a game.
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This is exactly the point of this statistic. It's to evaluate how a player performs in a given situation relative to the best possible performance in that situation. It's more important to hit a home run with two runners on base than it is to hit one with the bases empty. It's more important to drive in a run with the game tied in the bottom of the ninth inning than it is to do so in the first inning.
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If I had Clayton Kershaw he'd start every fifth game. But if my starters are the likes of Andrew Albers, PJ Walters and such I'd think differently. Good middle relievers are easier to find than good starters, and are paid less to boot. Even so, it would probably require several years of drafts, trades and free agent signings in order to assemble a staff of pitchers that could make this work.
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Gibson + Change-up + Confidence = Ace?
spinowner replied to jimbo92107's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Hypothetical example: Team A has 5 starters who each go 15-10. Team B has 2 starters who go 21-4 and 3 starters who go 11-14. Both teams are 75-50 as a staff, which will almost certainly get you into the postseason. During the regular season I'd say team A probably has a bit of an advantage, especially if they are in the same division and play each other 19 times. But in a 7-game postseason series I'd put my money on team B. -
Gibson + Change-up + Confidence = Ace?
spinowner replied to jimbo92107's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Never heard of him. Now, Madison Bumgarner, him I've heard of. -
Nothing says "I'm here and I'm ready" much better than that.
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Ben Revere may be the worst .300 hitter in the history of the major leagues. He takes almost no walks and he gets almost no extra base hits. Defensively he is spectacular at running down the ball and catching it but he's got a popgun arm. The Twins will come out ahead in the long run having Trevor May instead, especially with what's-his-name in Chattanooga looking like the center fielder of the next 12 years.
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Game Thread, Twins @ White Sox, 5/24 @ 1:10 pm CT
spinowner replied to formerly33's topic in Archived Game Threads
This is how games go when your pitcher(s) give the opposition nothing to work with. 13 So now batting, fielding and pitching abide, these three; but the greatest of these is pitching.
