Ted Schwerzler

It simply isn't true that every team does this. See, MN Twins, circa when this FO took over. 
Indeed, there aren't even 100 starting pitchers in the entire world that are consistent number 4 types.
That said, sure, real success ALSO requires even more....hopefully that is coming next year. We'll know a lot more next year. The big mistake, IMO, is not taking a great arm at the top of the draft (but then, TR proved you can be wrong there also.....not that he took top arms necessarily).

In 2021 the Minnesota Twins were supposed to be a good team that would see an influx of top tier prospects helping to supplement a contending roster. That hasn’t happened, but we’re seeing some surprising arms take center stage.
Royce Lewis didn’t get off the ground this year after missing a traditional minor league season in 2020. We haven’t seen (and likely won’t) Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic to this point. Although Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have both made their debuts, it’s been pitching where Minnesota has missed most often in 2021. Despite the poor performance, we have seen a trio of potentially overlooked arms brandish their stuff.
Bailey Ober
Realistically the arm with the highest upside of this group, Ober was a 12th round pick in 2017. He’s 26-years-old and owns a 4.53 ERA through his first 13 big league starts. That number drops to 4.19 if you throw out the clunker in his debut, and it’s an even better 3.55 across his last seven starts. He recently beat both the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox, and has tallied a 9.7 K/9 while owning just a 2.7 BB/9.
The fastball velocity has averaged 92.6 mph, but when it’s coming from a guy standing 6’9” it’s going to get on you with incredible quickness. While Ober is getting ground balls just 33% of the time, he’s allowing hard hit balls only 37.8% of the time. He has generated a respectable 10.5% whiff rate, and owns a 28.3% CSW (called and swinging strike percentage).
This wasn’t a guy ever destined to be a top prospect, and he’s hardly cracked an upper half of any organizational prospect list. That said, it’s never been a concern that the stuff hasn’t played. Ober dominated during his time in the minors with a 2.41 ERA and 11.1 K/9. The caveat is that it came in under 200 innings across four seasons. Injuries remain his chief bugaboo and he’s quickly approaching a new career high in innings pitched. For a team needing rotation help though, Ober’s emergence in 2021 should garner him serious consideration for an Opening Day roster spot next spring.
Griffin Jax
Taken in the 3rd round of the 2016 draft, Jax made his debut this season at 26-years-old. He went through a gambit of hoops to get here, first and foremost working around his commitment to the Air Force. Another guy that has never been considered highly when it comes to prospect status, Jax has succeeded at each level and always seemed “safe.”
I opined that it seemed shocking no big league team wanted to take a chance on him as a Rule 5 option, but it’s great that he’s still with the Twins. Although the current 5.45 ERA is hardly anything to write home about, his 38 innings of work have been punctuated by the last four starts. Across those 20 1/3 innings he owns a 2.66 ERA and .153 batting average against. Those outings feature two tilts with the White Sox, and one against Houston; both of which are high-powered offenses. Jax isn’t a fireballer or big strikeout pitcher, but there’s also nothing he does particularly poorly.
It’d be a long-shot to assume that Minnesota has a top half of the rotation arm here, but they’ve once again produced something of substance when it comes to rotation help and pitching depth. Jax hasn’t had the run needed to cement the belief that he’ll stick, but the track record and recent results suggest that he’s more than just a fleeting name during an otherwise lost season.
Charlie Barnes
Minnesota took Barnes out of Clemson in the 4th round of the 2017 draft. He’s the youngest of this group, not yet having reached his 26th birthday. He’s also seen the least amount of opportunity at the big league level, but it seems more could be in front of him down the stretch.
Posting strong ERA numbers during his first two seasons of professional baseball, Barnes made it to Triple-A in year three at 23-years-old. In 2021 he forced his opportunity with the Twins by turning into a solid string of performances with the St. Paul Saints. Barnes doesn’t strike a ton of batters out, with just a 7.7 K/9 in the minors, but he’s done a decent job of limiting free passes and has been stingy with the home run ball. More of a soft-tosser, the lefty will need to miss additional bats as he looks for a lengthened opportunity to stick.
Easily the most suspect arm in terms of both tools and production from this trio, Barnes has earned the role he’s currently in. There will need to be further advancement, but Minnesota pushing another fringe prospect to the big leagues is a win. His big-league debut against the Detroit Tigers went well, and despite the blow up against Cincinnati, he rebounded somewhat against a much tougher White Sox club. There’s more work to be done here, but this is a good foundation.
The real takeaway here is that you can never have enough arms, and development isn't solely put in place for the top prospects. Minnesota has stockpiled pitching talent, and while it has taken time to bear fruit, the infrastructure implemented by Derek Falvey is beginning to pay off. We can only hope to see that in the coming years with more success stories like these, and realization of top tier talent as well.
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In 2021 the Minnesota Twins were supposed to be a good team that would see an influx of top tier prospects helping to supplement a contending roster. That hasn’t happened, but we’re seeing some surprising arms take center stage.
Royce Lewis didn’t get off the ground this year after missing a traditional minor league season in 2020. We haven’t seen (and likely won’t) Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic to this point. Although Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have both made their debuts, it’s been pitching where Minnesota has missed most often in 2021. Despite the poor performance, we have seen a trio of potentially overlooked arms brandish their stuff.
Bailey Ober
Realistically the arm with the highest upside of this group, Ober was a 12th round pick in 2017. He’s 26-years-old and owns a 4.53 ERA through his first 13 big league starts. That number drops to 4.19 if you throw out the clunker in his debut, and it’s an even better 3.55 across his last seven starts. He recently beat both the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox, and has tallied a 9.7 K/9 while owning just a 2.7 BB/9.
The fastball velocity has averaged 92.6 mph, but when it’s coming from a guy standing 6’9” it’s going to get on you with incredible quickness. While Ober is getting ground balls just 33% of the time, he’s allowing hard hit balls only 37.8% of the time. He has generated a respectable 10.5% whiff rate, and owns a 28.3% CSW (called and swinging strike percentage).
This wasn’t a guy ever destined to be a top prospect, and he’s hardly cracked an upper half of any organizational prospect list. That said, it’s never been a concern that the stuff hasn’t played. Ober dominated during his time in the minors with a 2.41 ERA and 11.1 K/9. The caveat is that it came in under 200 innings across four seasons. Injuries remain his chief bugaboo and he’s quickly approaching a new career high in innings pitched. For a team needing rotation help though, Ober’s emergence in 2021 should garner him serious consideration for an Opening Day roster spot next spring.
Griffin Jax
Taken in the 3rd round of the 2016 draft, Jax made his debut this season at 26-years-old. He went through a gambit of hoops to get here, first and foremost working around his commitment to the Air Force. Another guy that has never been considered highly when it comes to prospect status, Jax has succeeded at each level and always seemed “safe.”
I opined that it seemed shocking no big league team wanted to take a chance on him as a Rule 5 option, but it’s great that he’s still with the Twins. Although the current 5.45 ERA is hardly anything to write home about, his 38 innings of work have been punctuated by the last four starts. Across those 20 1/3 innings he owns a 2.66 ERA and .153 batting average against. Those outings feature two tilts with the White Sox, and one against Houston; both of which are high-powered offenses. Jax isn’t a fireballer or big strikeout pitcher, but there’s also nothing he does particularly poorly.
It’d be a long-shot to assume that Minnesota has a top half of the rotation arm here, but they’ve once again produced something of substance when it comes to rotation help and pitching depth. Jax hasn’t had the run needed to cement the belief that he’ll stick, but the track record and recent results suggest that he’s more than just a fleeting name during an otherwise lost season.
Charlie Barnes
Minnesota took Barnes out of Clemson in the 4th round of the 2017 draft. He’s the youngest of this group, not yet having reached his 26th birthday. He’s also seen the least amount of opportunity at the big league level, but it seems more could be in front of him down the stretch.
Posting strong ERA numbers during his first two seasons of professional baseball, Barnes made it to Triple-A in year three at 23-years-old. In 2021 he forced his opportunity with the Twins by turning into a solid string of performances with the St. Paul Saints. Barnes doesn’t strike a ton of batters out, with just a 7.7 K/9 in the minors, but he’s done a decent job of limiting free passes and has been stingy with the home run ball. More of a soft-tosser, the lefty will need to miss additional bats as he looks for a lengthened opportunity to stick.
Easily the most suspect arm in terms of both tools and production from this trio, Barnes has earned the role he’s currently in. There will need to be further advancement, but Minnesota pushing another fringe prospect to the big leagues is a win. His big-league debut against the Detroit Tigers went well, and despite the blow up against Cincinnati, he rebounded somewhat against a much tougher White Sox club. There’s more work to be done here, but this is a good foundation.
The real takeaway here is that you can never have enough arms, and development isn't solely put in place for the top prospects. Minnesota has stockpiled pitching talent, and while it has taken time to bear fruit, the infrastructure implemented by Derek Falvey is beginning to pay off. We can only hope to see that in the coming years with more success stories like these, and realization of top tier talent as well.
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This is why I think this team could still be interesting next season.  Sure, they've got plenty of work to do with the pitching and that will ultimately determine how competitive the club will be, but there's still a pretty good core here to build around.  They may be inconsistent given the youth I'm expecting to see, but there's potential there.

Probably back to the Twins before the year is done...

It was a tough day on the farm for the Minnesota Twins affiliates. Runs were at a premium and wins were nearly non-existent. The Saints came through with the drama.
TRANSACTIONS
There were no reported transactions today.
SAINTS SENTINEL 
St. Paul 3, Indianapolis 2 (F/10)
Box Score
Veteran Matt Shoemaker continued his strong stretch with the Saints again in this one. He turned in seven strong allowing just two hits while striking out six and giving up just two walks.
St. Paul scored first on a Keon Broxton solo shot in the bottom of the third inning. Jimmy Kerrigan then scored the second run on a wild pitch in the 7th. After an 8th inning homer knotted things up for Indianapolis, this one would see extras. In the 10th Tomas Telis drew a bases loaded walk allowing J.T. Riddle to waltz in for the game winning run.
Kerrigan was joined by Jose Miranda as the lone batters to record two-hit games.
WIND SURGE WISDOM
NW Arkansas 12, Wichita 1
Box Score
Northwest Arkansas came out with bats ready to go from the jump. Bryan Sammons was blitzed early for a four run 2nd inning but did well to rebound and complete four for Wichita.
The Wind Surge were down 11-0 by the 8th inning, and Spencer Steer’s solo shot only brough them back within 10. The Naturals responded with a run of their own in the bottom half, and the deficit ended at 11.
KERNELS NUGGETS
Wisconsin 4, Cedar Rapids 1
Box Score
Tyler Watson was great for the Kernels allowing just a single unearned run on four hits over five innings. He struck out two and walked just one on the evening.
Cedar Rapids recorded 10 hits, including three from Wander Javier and two each from Michael Helman and Daniel Ozoria. They turned into just one run though, a Helman homer in the 9th. Trying to erase a four-run deficit, it just wasn’t enough.
MUSSEL MATTERS
Game 1: Clearwater 4, Fort Myers 2 (F/7)
Box Score
Brent Headrick took the ball for Fort Myers in the first game of their doubleheader today and worked four innings. He gave up four runs on four hits while striking out six and walking two.
All four Threshers runs came in the 4th inning. Trailing going into the top half of the 5th, the Mighty Mussels pushed across their answer. Misael Urbina allowed Ruben Santana to score despite a double play, and then Nick Anderson drove in Justin Washington on a single.
Both sides mustered just four hits on the day, and it was Anderson pinch hitting for Aaron Sabato that was the lone batter to record a multi-hit effort in this one.
Game 2: Clearwater 3, Fort Myers 2 (F/8)
Box Score
Landon Leach was on the hill for game two and went four innings allowing two runs on four hits while walking one and punching out two.
Fort Myers pushed across the game’s first run in the top half of the 1st. Charles Mack drove in Jeferson Morales with a liner to left and then Will Holland plated Mack with a single of his own. Unfortunately, and despite 11 hits in the game, that’s where the scoring ended for the Mighty Mussels. Things were even after the 3rd, and the Threshers pushed across the game winning run in the 8th.
Mack and Jesus Feliz both recorded three-hit games in this one, while Ruben Santana had a pair of his own.
COMPLEX CHRONICLES 
FCL Pirates Black 9, FCL Twins 6
Box Score
Giovahniey German made the start today for the Twins and went three innings allowing just a single hit and one walk while striking out three. The bullpen struggled giving up nine runs (eight earned) on seven hits.
Alexander Pena drove in the game’s first run scoring Emmanuel Rodriguez on a first inning single. From there though, the Pirates added eight before the Twins answered in the 7th. A Malfrin Sosa single scored Yonardy Soto bringing the deficit to six.
After giving up another Pirates run, the Twins added four in a 9th inning rally that ultimately came up short. Luis Baez scored Nelson Roberto on a single before Rodriguez drove in Rubel Cespedes on a sacrifice fly. A Kala’i Rosario single scored Baez and LaRon Smith singled to drive in Rodriguez.
The Twins outhit the Pirates 10 to eight, but it wasn’t enough in the runs column. Baez, Rosario, and Cespedes all recorded two hits in the game.
TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY
Pitcher of the Day- Tyler Watson (Cedar Rapids) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Hitter of the Day- Michael Helman (Cedar Rapids) – 2-4, R, RBI, HR(10)
PROSPECT SUMMARY
Take note that we have finished our midseason update, so there is a new list! Here is a look at how the Twins Daily Midseason Top 20 Twins Prospects performed:
#1 – Royce Lewis (Rehab) – Out for season (torn ACL)
#2 – Jhoan Duran (St. Paul) – Injured List (elbow strain)
#3 – Jordan Balazovic (Wichita) –Did not pitch
#4 – Matt Canterino (Cedar Rapids) – Injured List (right elbow strain)
#5 – Jose Miranda (St. Paul) – 2-3, 2 BB
#6 – Keoni Cavaco (Fort Myers) – Did not play
#7 – Gilberto Celestino (Minnesota) – No game
#8 – Josh Winder (St. Paul) – Did not pitch
#9 – Aaron Sabato (Fort Myers) – 0-0 (was removed in game one)
#10 – Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) – 0-4, K
#11 – Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) – Out for Season (Tommy John surgery)
#12 – Bailey Ober (Minnesota) – No game
#13 – Cole Sands (Wichita) –Did not pitch
#14 – Brent Rooker (Minnesota) – No game
#15 – Misael Urbina (Fort Myers) – 0-7, BB
#16 – Spencer Steer (Wichita) – 1-3, R, RBI, HR(8), BB, 2 K
#17 – Wander Javier (Cedar Rapids) – 3-4
#18 – Alerick Soularie (Complex) – N/A (foot injury)
#19 – Edwar Colina (Rehab) – Injured List (elbow)
#20 – Chris Vallimont (Wichita) – Did not pitch
FRIDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS
Indianapolis @ St. Paul (7:05PM CST) – RHP Griffin Jax (4-1, 3.32 ERA)
Wichita @ NW Arkansas (7:05PM CST) – RHP Jordan Balazovic (3-1, 2.74 ERA)
Cedar Rapids @ Wisconsin (7:05PM CST) – RHP Ben Gross (4-0, 2.41 ERA)
Fort Myers @ Clearwater (5:30 PM CST) – TBD
 

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Probably back to the Twins before the year is done...

It was a tough day on the farm for the Minnesota Twins affiliates. Runs were at a premium and wins were nearly non-existent. The Saints came through with the drama.
TRANSACTIONS
There were no reported transactions today.
SAINTS SENTINEL 
St. Paul 3, Indianapolis 2 (F/10)
Box Score
Veteran Matt Shoemaker continued his strong stretch with the Saints again in this one. He turned in seven strong allowing just two hits while striking out six and giving up just two walks.
St. Paul scored first on a Keon Broxton solo shot in the bottom of the third inning. Jimmy Kerrigan then scored the second run on a wild pitch in the 7th. After an 8th inning homer knotted things up for Indianapolis, this one would see extras. In the 10th Tomas Telis drew a bases loaded walk allowing J.T. Riddle to waltz in for the game winning run.
Kerrigan was joined by Jose Miranda as the lone batters to record two-hit games.
WIND SURGE WISDOM
NW Arkansas 12, Wichita 1
Box Score
Northwest Arkansas came out with bats ready to go from the jump. Bryan Sammons was blitzed early for a four run 2nd inning but did well to rebound and complete four for Wichita.
The Wind Surge were down 11-0 by the 8th inning, and Spencer Steer’s solo shot only brough them back within 10. The Naturals responded with a run of their own in the bottom half, and the deficit ended at 11.
KERNELS NUGGETS
Wisconsin 4, Cedar Rapids 1
Box Score
Tyler Watson was great for the Kernels allowing just a single unearned run on four hits over five innings. He struck out two and walked just one on the evening.
Cedar Rapids recorded 10 hits, including three from Wander Javier and two each from Michael Helman and Daniel Ozoria. They turned into just one run though, a Helman homer in the 9th. Trying to erase a four-run deficit, it just wasn’t enough.
MUSSEL MATTERS
Game 1: Clearwater 4, Fort Myers 2 (F/7)
Box Score
Brent Headrick took the ball for Fort Myers in the first game of their doubleheader today and worked four innings. He gave up four runs on four hits while striking out six and walking two.
All four Threshers runs came in the 4th inning. Trailing going into the top half of the 5th, the Mighty Mussels pushed across their answer. Misael Urbina allowed Ruben Santana to score despite a double play, and then Nick Anderson drove in Justin Washington on a single.
Both sides mustered just four hits on the day, and it was Anderson pinch hitting for Aaron Sabato that was the lone batter to record a multi-hit effort in this one.
Game 2: Clearwater 3, Fort Myers 2 (F/8)
Box Score
Landon Leach was on the hill for game two and went four innings allowing two runs on four hits while walking one and punching out two.
Fort Myers pushed across the game’s first run in the top half of the 1st. Charles Mack drove in Jeferson Morales with a liner to left and then Will Holland plated Mack with a single of his own. Unfortunately, and despite 11 hits in the game, that’s where the scoring ended for the Mighty Mussels. Things were even after the 3rd, and the Threshers pushed across the game winning run in the 8th.
Mack and Jesus Feliz both recorded three-hit games in this one, while Ruben Santana had a pair of his own.
COMPLEX CHRONICLES 
FCL Pirates Black 9, FCL Twins 6
Box Score
Giovahniey German made the start today for the Twins and went three innings allowing just a single hit and one walk while striking out three. The bullpen struggled giving up nine runs (eight earned) on seven hits.
Alexander Pena drove in the game’s first run scoring Emmanuel Rodriguez on a first inning single. From there though, the Pirates added eight before the Twins answered in the 7th. A Malfrin Sosa single scored Yonardy Soto bringing the deficit to six.
After giving up another Pirates run, the Twins added four in a 9th inning rally that ultimately came up short. Luis Baez scored Nelson Roberto on a single before Rodriguez drove in Rubel Cespedes on a sacrifice fly. A Kala’i Rosario single scored Baez and LaRon Smith singled to drive in Rodriguez.
The Twins outhit the Pirates 10 to eight, but it wasn’t enough in the runs column. Baez, Rosario, and Cespedes all recorded two hits in the game.
TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY
Pitcher of the Day- Tyler Watson (Cedar Rapids) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Hitter of the Day- Michael Helman (Cedar Rapids) – 2-4, R, RBI, HR(10)
PROSPECT SUMMARY
Take note that we have finished our midseason update, so there is a new list! Here is a look at how the Twins Daily Midseason Top 20 Twins Prospects performed:
#1 – Royce Lewis (Rehab) – Out for season (torn ACL)
#2 – Jhoan Duran (St. Paul) – Injured List (elbow strain)
#3 – Jordan Balazovic (Wichita) –Did not pitch
#4 – Matt Canterino (Cedar Rapids) – Injured List (right elbow strain)
#5 – Jose Miranda (St. Paul) – 2-3, 2 BB
#6 – Keoni Cavaco (Fort Myers) – Did not play
#7 – Gilberto Celestino (Minnesota) – No game
#8 – Josh Winder (St. Paul) – Did not pitch
#9 – Aaron Sabato (Fort Myers) – 0-0 (was removed in game one)
#10 – Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) – 0-4, K
#11 – Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) – Out for Season (Tommy John surgery)
#12 – Bailey Ober (Minnesota) – No game
#13 – Cole Sands (Wichita) –Did not pitch
#14 – Brent Rooker (Minnesota) – No game
#15 – Misael Urbina (Fort Myers) – 0-7, BB
#16 – Spencer Steer (Wichita) – 1-3, R, RBI, HR(8), BB, 2 K
#17 – Wander Javier (Cedar Rapids) – 3-4
#18 – Alerick Soularie (Complex) – N/A (foot injury)
#19 – Edwar Colina (Rehab) – Injured List (elbow)
#20 – Chris Vallimont (Wichita) – Did not pitch
FRIDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS
Indianapolis @ St. Paul (7:05PM CST) – RHP Griffin Jax (4-1, 3.32 ERA)
Wichita @ NW Arkansas (7:05PM CST) – RHP Jordan Balazovic (3-1, 2.74 ERA)
Cedar Rapids @ Wisconsin (7:05PM CST) – RHP Ben Gross (4-0, 2.41 ERA)
Fort Myers @ Clearwater (5:30 PM CST) – TBD
 

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Probably back to the Twins before the year is done...

Lots of hits but few runs . . . sounds familiar in Twin's territory.

To say the 2021 Major League Baseball season has not gone as planned for the Minnesota Twins would be an understatement. It’s been a catastrophic failure of expectations, but there are things to be learned in this smoldering mess.
We still have a ways to go, and while there is no August waiver trade period in 2021, Rocco Baldelli’s roster should continue to get a shake-up over the next few weeks. Cycling in different hitters and pitchers when attempting to find future opportunities, this club can also look back on what has been and begin making assessments for 2022 and beyond.
While not all the biggest storylines, here are five key takeaways from what we’ve seen to this point:
Miguel Sano is inconsistently consistent
Through 21 games to start the year, Sano owned a .119/.280/.209 slash line. Over his next 38 games from May 15 through June 30, he held a .233/.280/.549 slash line. Then, in July, he’s owned a .246/.325/.478 slash line across 20 games. He’s got a .737 OPS in 79 games this year and has paired that with 17 homers and a .291 OBP.
If you’re looking for Miguel Sano to be the mega-prospect he once was considered, that’s probably on you at this point. The slash line still leaves plenty to be desired, but he’s got a 103 OPS+ and has not wavered on a solid sense of plate discipline. Timing continues to elude him for frustrating stretches, but he’s also capable of going on an absolute power tear.
Should the Twins find themselves back in a position of strength throughout their lineup, a bat like that in the bottom half is hardly something to scoff at. He’s owed $9.25 million in 2022, and that’s an overpay but not to the extent of being ultimately damaging and acting as a primary designated hitter; that may be the role he’s always been destined for anyways.
Nick Gordon has utility
I was convinced that opportunity had passed the Twins former first-round pick by for quite a while. I knew he could play at the big-league level but wasn’t sure it would happen in a Minnesota uniform. Now I’m more convinced that it needs to continue.
He’s still the same player he’s been throughout the minors. A soft-hitting speedster that will occasionally run into one, this is a singles hitter that has the instincts to swipe bases. Add in the utility he’s provided by learning centerfield on the fly, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be on the Opening Day roster in 2022.
Gordon may find a bit more success in year two when it comes to batting average; he’s made a career out of taking steps forward after acclimating to a level. Even if he doesn’t, though, speed on the bench is something Minnesota hasn’t had, and the combination of being a lighter version of Chris Taylor is a good thing for any roster to have.
Mitch Garver can still mash
To say that 2020 was disastrous for Mitch Garver would be putting it lightly. The Twins Silver Slugger winning catcher posted a terrible .511 OPS and hit just two homers in 23 games. Things started slow for him in 2021, with a .517 OPS being toted through 17 games.
In his last 29 games since April 28, with a severe injury mixed in there, Garver has slashed .299/.449/.740 with nine homers and a 20/19 K/BB. The life-altering foul tip he took was incredibly scary, but as rehab progressed and healing took place, he’s been back behind the dish and picked up where he left off. Even after being plunked by a pitch on his hand recently, it’s fair to dream of the production that will soon return.
Garver is a late-blooming prospect, so he’s going to age relatively quickly, but this is the anchor of a tandem behind the dish that Twins fans were hoping for.
The pitching staff needs an overhaul
Minnesota owns the fourth-worst pitching staff in baseball by fWAR in 2021. The starters rank 24th, and the relievers are 25th. The entire unit has been a complete abomination. With the uncertain status of Jose Berrios’ future and veterans like J.A. Happ and Michael Pineda being done this offseason, the rotation will be in flux.
Taylor Rogers sapped his trade value with a finger injury just days ago, but whether he was dealt or not, the rest of the bullpen remains a complete question mark. None of the signings made by the front office have worked out, and while they were short-term pacts, a re-do is less exciting when considering just how many times they missed over the winter.
Derek Falvey has long been lauded for his ability to develop and identify pitching. Minnesota has a farm system rich with names attached to arms, but none have begun to bear fruit, and plenty are currently injured. For this organization to thrive at the highest level, it’s going to need to start on the mound once again, and they’re going to be doing so from next to nothing for 2022.
Corner rookies are real
In a season where winning takes a back seat, the best way to prevent it from becoming lost is by watching your youth thrive. Alex Kirilloff is done for the year after having wrist surgery, but it’s pretty realistic to call his rookie campaign a success. The top prospect came up early and handled his own. He’s not an ideal fit in the outfield, but he’ll play at first base, and the bat is every bit as advertised.
Trevor Larnach joined Kirilloff sooner than expected, but it’s hard to pick apart much of what he’s done this season. Even while slumping of late, the 24-year-old owns a .322 OBP and has shown plenty of power potential. He’ll run into more baseballs as his career progresses, and the discipline in the box has been a sight to behold.
These are both pillar players that Minnesota needs to see as foundational cornerstones of future lineups, and early returns should suggest they are both capable of doing just that.
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For years, fans have complained about the payroll of the Minnesota Twins. You simply cannot spend your way to a World Series; ask the New York Yankees. That said, this organization may very well still have an allocation problem.
No, the problem is not that the Twins don’t spend money, but rather that they don’t know HOW to spend money. Said another way, they don’t correctly know how to spend money.
As we embark upon a quasi-deadline for homegrown talents like Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios, it seems the front office is faced with a decision to extend or deal both talents. Buxton would be looking at a payday north of $200 million as a free agent coming off a season of health. Jose Berrios wants to max out his value, and it seems he’s all but gone in this club’s mind. Those are problems, but only because they compound an already developing issue.
Way back when the Twins paid Joe Mauer. He was worth every penny and was underpaid throughout his career. Nothing about his contract hamstrung a mid-market team without a salary cap. What prevented the hometown nine from winning was the lack of supplementation on the roster, both in youth and acquired talent.
Fast forward to where we are now, and once again, the Twins are showing a lack of ability to spend wisely. This club paid Josh Donaldson nearly $100 million following one season with Atlanta. The Bringer of Rain posted a .259/.379/.521 slash line in 2019 while playing in 155 games. His first year in Minnesota was challenging in that the pandemic cut short any real season, but nagging leg injuries kept him to just 28 games and out of the most important during October.
Look at what Donaldson has done for Minnesota, however, and it’s nothing short of what this club should’ve hoped. After his 124 OPS+ in Atlanta, Donaldson has posted a .244/.358/.485 slash and 135 OPS+ with the Twins. The slugging has slid a bit, but the ball has changed, and arguably the only knock has been losing a step defensively. After an injury-plagued season a year ago, he’s been one of the most consistently available Twins in 2021.
So, here we are with a big contract given out to a free agent that’s performing, and Minnesota is looking at a teardown. Donaldson could be had for salary relief, Berrios could command prospects, and Buxton may be the most exciting asset the sport has seen in a long time. Once again, though, this club looks to have failed to spend.
Over the winter, the thought process should’ve been acquiring talent to supplement this group. Alex Colome and Hansel Robles had appeal on paper, but neither is the impact arm the provides insurance for the group headlined by Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey. J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker were veteran starters with relatively decent floors, but neither would push Berrios or Kenta Maeda for the top of the rotation duty. When acquiring talent to raise the water level, this organization changed out oars and continued to tread water. Donaldson was a significant expense, and nothing was done to truly supplement him.
Here we are now facing an awful result, and the outcome could be moving assets for hope in the future. Target Field was opened under the assumption that Minnesota would be able to retain its homegrown talent. Watching Buxton and Berrios be moved isn’t a reality that is supposed to take place. Suppressed payrolls for much of the past decade should pave the way for an influx of dollars to be utilized around a core that’s shown it can compete. Right now, it feels like that couldn’t be further from the truth.
I don’t believe that Minnesota’s strategy should be to play in the pool near a $200 million mark. Acquiring top-tier talent only to keep them on an island and then piecing things out for another cycle when things go wrong looks like a misappropriated allocation of funds. Development isn’t linear and should be the focus internally. Still, it’s time this organization made financial commitments to those they’ve seen bear fruit and then continue to support the roster as a whole with acquired talent that makes more sense than just cents on the dollar.
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Although Oakland is currently looking up in their division, the need to increase their hold on a Wild Card spot is there, and Minnesota has the firepower to help them do just that.
What’s Their Situation?
The Oakland Athletics currently find themselves second in the American League West with a record of 52-40. They are 3.5 games back of the Houston Astros and have a 3.5 game lead on the Seattle Mariners for the 2nd Wild Card spot. Ideally, this is a team angling for a postseason berth. Unlikely to have the firepower necessary to catch Houston, hanging onto a Wild Card spot and going from there would seem to be a good goal. 
Traditionally the Athletics aren’t big spenders, but it’s hardly uncommon for them to see their names in the thick of things when the dust settles on the season. After beating the White Sox in the Wild Card round a year ago, Oakland would love to exact revenge against the division-rival Astros, who they bowed out against in the Division Series.
What Do They Need?
Bob Melvin’s club could probably use a bit more hitting help than pitching, given they’re within the top 10 in the latter while being outside it in the former. There’s power in the lineup, but the designated hitter spot could use an upgrade, and that’s exactly where rumors have them focusing. Jon Heyman recently noted that Oakland would be seen as a legitimate landing spot for the services of Twins slugger Nelson Cruz.
Oakland’s starters have been a top 10 group in baseball, but their bullpen has compiled just the 21st ranked unit in terms of fWAR. Plucking from the 25th best unit in Minnesota doesn’t provide many options, but there are at least two that come to mind.
Which Twins Are the Best Fit?
Buyers for a designated hitter aren’t plentiful. Only half of the sport uses one, and half of that half are uncompetitive. Cruz works in Oakland though, and he’d have to be seen as their most desired target from Minnesota. 
Should the Twins want to try and increase the return, packaging the Dominican slugger, adding an arm makes some sense. Taylor Rogers is the most premium of relief options, but someone like Hansel Robles could help as well. They have made impact moves for starters previously, and Jose Berrios would resemble that, but Minnesota also has both J.A. Happ and Michael Pineda on the block.
Who Could the Twins Get Back?
There’s not much hope for a massive return when considering any of the expiring veteran contracts the Twins have. As good as Nelson Cruz has been, the market simply won’t be there to drive the price up too high. That being said, the Athletics have some nice names in their system, and throwing in someone like Taylor Rogers may move the needle. Arguably the most untouchable from Oakland would be 18-year-old shortstop Robert Puason. Short of including Jose Berrios, he’s not coming back to the Twins. 
Someone like Daulton Jefferies or Greg Deichmann could have appeal as they are both now older prospects. Jefferies is a former first-round pick who got blasted in his big league debut and has scuffled at Triple-A this year. Deichmann was a 2017 2nd round pick but is now having his best pro season as a 26-year-old at Triple-A.  If Minnesota wants to try and get creative, working a way to nab Jesus Luzardo would be somewhat of a coup. He hasn’t panned out as expected, but the prospect hype was all there, and a change of scenery could do him well.
I can’t imagine anyone from 15-30 in the Athletics prospect rankings being off the table in a swap that includes Nelson Cruz. Grant Holmes is a 25-year-old Triple-A arm, and Austin Beck was the 6th overall pick as an outfielder back in 2017.

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A selloff is coming for the 2021 Minnesota Twins, and that's in large part because they've been a bad baseball team. To capitalize on being interesting down the stretch, there's some names that belong on the bump.
Rocco Baldelli came into this season expecting to compete for a third straight division title. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, that reality isn’t going to play out. The second half now should be about evaluation for Minnesota. As 40-man and 26-man roster spots open up, it will be imperative for the Twins to look at fresh faces and see what they have.
On the pitching side, here are some names to consider:

Before individual deep dives, I think the trio of Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, and Cole Sands all fit here. Winder needs to debut, having already made his way to Triple-A. I can understand not starting the clock on Balazovic and Sands missed time due to injury. Of the names in this article, though, these are all the premier prospect types. There's also the recent call ups and guys with little time that need extended run. Throw Bailey Ober, Griffin Jax, and now Charlie Barnes into this category. Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe (when healthy) would join them as well.
Beau Burrows

A former first-round pick and solid prospect for the Tigers, Burrows is now a reclamation project for the Twins. He was blown up in his Major League debut, and he was awful at Triple-A Toledo. Still just 24, Burrows is the exact type of prospect a team like the Twins should be taking a flier on. Strikeouts haven’t ever followed him in large quantities, but a new development infrastructure could bear fruit. He’ll need to accumulate a more substantial sample size at Triple-A St. Paul before getting a call but putting him out there with a tweaked repertoire may make for an interesting acquisition.

Yennier Cano

Signed by Minnesota back in 2019, Cano is now 27 and not a prospect. He was slow-played but has finally made his way to Triple-A St. Paul. The stuff has been legit at each professional level, and he’s currently rocking a 2.37 ERA across 30 1/3 innings between Double and Triple-A this season. With a 12.5 K/9 and just a 3.3 BB/9, that’s shaping up like an arm both Wes Johnson and Rocco Baldelli could utilize in relief. There’s not much reason to continue holding him back at this point, and Cano could resemble a late-blooming pen arm.

Ian Hamilton

Having been through injury, a car accident, and many hurdles halting his big league career, Hamilton is one of the few waiver claims from this winter that hasn’t shown up in Minnesota. He owns a 1.08 ERA across 25 innings for the Saints, but it comes with a gaudy 18 walks. The strikeouts are there (35), and he’s allowed just three homers which have helped limit the damage. With a high-velocity fastball, this is an arm the Twins need to take a look at before allowing him a new landing spot in 2022.

Hector Lujan

A 35th round pick back in 2016, Lujan has earned every single opportunity he’s been provided in pro ball. Now at Double-A Wichita, the 26-year-old owns a 2.49 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. His strikeout numbers are modest by today’s standards, but he’s been tremendous at limiting free passes (1.8 career BB/9). He pitched at Double-A back in 2019 and should already be getting run for the Saints. Maybe there isn’t a ton of upside here, but there’s also a seemingly safe floor that could factor in as a nice middle relief piece.

Ryan Mason

Picked in the 13th round of the 2016 draft, Mason has consistently climbed the ladder for the Twins. He’s at Double-A now and has compiled a 2.67 ERA in 30 1/3 innings. It’s been time for a promotion to Triple-A, and the 4.2 BB/9 in 2021 is uncharacteristic for a guy with a 1.9 BB/9 career mark. He gets his strikeouts, and Mason has never had an ERA north of 2.77 as a reliever. He’ll be 27 in 2022 and is already well above the average age of his current level. You’re probably not getting a high leverage guy here, but there’s no reason Mason can’t be seen as a middle innings gap guy.

Jovani Moran

Drafted out of school in Puerto Rico back in 2015, Moran is now 24 and playing at Double-A Wichita. It’s his second turn through the level, and he’s been dominant with a 1.91 ERA across 37 2/3 innings. He’s striking out over 15 batters per nine, and the career 4.1 BB/9 is workable in relief. Moran should get a bump to Triple-A in short order, and with some final tweaks, it could be a nice success story through a longer progression for the Twins.

Chris Vallimont

Minnesota acquired Vallimont alongside Sergio Romo back in 2019. He was a former 5th round draft pick and is now 24 at Double-A. The strikeout stuff has always been good, and while the walks are higher than you’d like for a starter, he’s done well to avoid damage. Vallimont owns a 3.96 ERA for Wichita this year, and despite throwing less than 40 innings, a promotion to Triple-A could make sense soon. Maybe he debuts in the bullpen for Minnesota, but I think this is an arm you’d like to see get some big-league run.
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There were a couple of gaudy box scores on the farm tonight for the Twins, but it was down in Cedar Rapids where a walkoff blast from Wander Javier that the highlight of the evening came from.
TRANSACTIONS
Twins traded cash considerations with Rangers for RHP Joe Kuzia and assigned him to Wichita SAINTS SENTINEL
St. Paul 10, Iowa 3
Box Score
Charlie Barnes toed the rubber for the Saints tonight and went 5 1/3 innings. He allowed three runs on five hits and struck out four. Thanks to the lineup putting up 10 prior to his departure, St. Paul was well in the lead.
The Saints did all over their damage in the 3rd and 4th innings. Willians Astudillo kicked off the scoring with a double as St. Paul had the bases loaded. A Mark Contreras triple then plated Astudillo before Damek Tomscha drove in Contreras with a single, and Jimmy Kerrigan cleared the bases with his 7th homer.
In the 4th the Saints got a pair of homers from Drew Maggi (a two-run shot plating Jose Miranda) and Astudillo on a solo blast. Miranda keeps hitting and nabbed a two-hit night out of the leadoff spot while he was joined by Astudillo, Contreras, and Tomscha with two hits apiece.
Ian Hamilton and Kyle Barraclough combined to finish the final 3 2/3 innings allowing just a single hit and punching out four.
WIND SURGE WISDOM
NW Arkansas 10, Wichita 1
Box Score
This one wasn’t pretty for Wichita as they surrendered a six spot in the top half of the first inning. Austin Schulfer has had better outings, and he allowed six runs (four earned) while recording just three outs.
Wichita scored their lone run on an Aaron Whitefield double, his eighth, in the 4th inning. Jermain Palacios scored and that was the extent of the offense with Wichita generating just a grand total of two hits.
KERNELS NUGGETS
Cedar Rapids 4, Peoria 1
Box Score
Tyler Beck got the start for Cedar Rapids tonight and turned in 2 2/3 innings of scoreless ball allowing just two hits. Derek Molina followed him for 2 1/3 innings allowing a single hit and punching out four. This one stayed even at 0-0 through nine complete innings.
Peoria pushed across their free runner in the 10th prior to Michael Helman driving in Seth Gray in the bottom half. Ryan Shreve then blanked the Chiefs in the 11th and allowed Cedar Rapids an opportunity to win it. Shortstop Wander Javier stepped in with Jair Camargo and Gray both on base, he then blasted his 7th homer of the season to walk it off for the home team.
Helman was the only Kernels batter to record two hits on the evening.
MUSSEL MATTERS
Fort Myers 9, St. Lucie 6
Box Score
Sawyer Gipson-Long began this one on the bump for Fort Myers, but unfortunately, he lasted just 2 2/3 innings giving up six runs on five hits. The bullpen came in and slammed the door however, with three different pitchers combining to allow just a single run.
Aaron Sabato opened the scoring for the Mighty Mussels with a solo homer, his fourth longball of the season. Then after getting behind 6-1 in the 3rd, Fort Myers went to work. Charles Mack swatted a three run bomb before Misael Urbina drove in Willie Joe Garry Jr. on a sac fly. Jeferson Morales then collected his 14th double allowing Keoni Cavaco to score and the game was even at six headed to the bottom of the 7th.
In the 8th Cavaco recorded his 4th double of the year scoring Mack, and Morales sped around the bases for an inside-the-park homer in the 9th.
COMPLEX CHRONICLES
FCL Twins 11, FCL Orioles Orange 8
Box Score
Kala’I Rosario just keeps crushing for the FCL squad. He had another two-hit effort today and now owns a 1.029 OPS on the season. Emmanuel Rodriguez went 2-for-4 with his second homer and tallied four RBI to drive the victory home.
Shortstop Luis Gomez tallied three hits on the afternoon, and the trio of Wilfri Castro, Rubel Cespedes, and Luis Baez all picked up a pair of hits on their own. Castro and Baez both collected triples today.
On the bump, Develson Aria picked up the victory working 1 2/3 scoreless in relief while punching out four. Matt Mullenbach worked 2 1/3 scoreless while striking out three, and Ramon Pineda grabbed his second save of the season working 1 2/3 innings.
TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY
Pitcher of the Day – Derek Molina (Cedar Rapids) 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Hitter of the Day – Keoni Cavaco (Fort Myers) – 2-4, R, 2 RBI, BB, 2B
PROSPECT SUMMARY
Take note that we have finished our midseason update, so there is a new list! Here is a look at how the Twins Daily Midseason Top 20 Twins Prospects performed:
#1 – Royce Lewis (Rehab) – Out for season (torn ACL)
#2 – Jhoan Duran (St. Paul) – Injured List (elbow strain)
#3 – Jordan Balazovic (Wichita) – Did not pitch
#4 – Matt Canterino (Cedar Rapids) – Injured List (right elbow strain)
#5 – Jose Miranda (St. Paul) – 2-3, 2 R, 2 BB, K, 2 2B
#6 – Keoni Cavaco (Fort Myers) – 2-4, R, 2 RBI, BB, 2B
#7 – Gilberto Celestino (Minnesota) – 0-3, R, K
#8 – Josh Winder (St. Paul) – Did not pitch
#9 – Aaron Sabato (Fort Myers) – 2-5, R, RBI, K, HR(4)
#10 – Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) – Injured List (hamate bone surgery)
#11 – Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) – Out for Season (Tommy John surgery)
#12 – Bailey Ober (Minnesota) – Did not pitch
#13 – Cole Sands (Wichita) – Did not pitch
#14 – Brent Rooker (St. Paul) – 0-4, R, BB, 2 K
#15 – Misael Urbina (Fort Myers) – 1-3, RBI, BB
#16 – Spencer Steer (Wichita) – 0-4, K
#17 – Wander Javier (Cedar Rapids) – 1-5, R, 3 RBI, K, HR(7)
#18 – Alerick Soularie (Complex) – N/A (foot injury)
#19 – Edwar Colina (Rehab) – Injured List (elbow)
#20 – Chris Vallimont (Wichita) – Did not pitch
FRIDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS
St. Paul @ Iowa (7:08 PM CST) – RHP Chandler Shepherd (3-3, 5.85 ERA)
NW Arkansas @ Wichita (7:05PM CST) – RHP Jason Garcia (1-1, 4.82 ERA)
Peoria @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) – LHP Kody Funderburk (1-3, 3.66 ERA)
Fort Myers @ St. Lucie (5:10PM CST) – RHP Louie Varland (3-2, 1.91 ERA)
FCL Twins @ FCL Red Sox (11:00AM CST)- TBD      
 
Feel free to ask questions and discuss Thursday’s games

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Flashback to 2011 and the Minnesota Twins found themselves at 41-48 when the All-Star Break took place. Just a few weeks later, they were a dismal 55-75 shipping Jim Thome to Cleveland. It’s happening again, but Nelson Cruz will hurt worse.
Don’t get me wrong, I remember Thome’s time with the Twins fondly. His first season, the year Target Field opened, the slugger that tormented Minnesota for all those years put up a 1.039 OPS across 108 games. A year later he’d record his 600th career home run, only further cementing his place in Cooperstown. Thome was adopted as the Twins lumberjack, and his power played in the role perfectly.
When Thome was dealt however, it was clear this was the beginning of the end. Not only did the Twins stink, but he’d lost over 200 points on his OPS from the year prior and sending him to a mediocre Cleveland club was about a proper sendoff as much as it was an asset acquisition. He’d make stops in Philadelphia and Baltimore during 2012, but the end came just 58 games into his season.
At the end of the day, Thome was an integral part of a very good 2010 club, but then watched as the age counter flipped to 40 and Father Time proved undefeated yet again.
Enter Minnesota’s current designated hitter. Nelson Cruz has now played 247 games in a Twins uniform. That’s roughly 50 games more than Thome, but Cruz went through the shortened 2020 season stunting that growing total. He was the unquestioned leader of the Bomba Squad, a club that hit a Major League record 307 dingers. Despite playing for the organization between ages 38-41, he’s compiled a .307/.389/.607 slash line and 75 homers across that stretch. Age notwithstanding, he’s been among baseball’s best in his latest years.
When Derek Falvey ultimately deals Cruz later this month, it will feel different as well. He’s not going back to Seattle or Texas. This isn’t a sendoff and Cruz isn’t riding off into the sunset. Two likely landing spots include the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays. Minnesota will be looking to maximize value, and Cruz will be counted upon as a lineup fixture. This is a true asset, no longer a privilege for Minnesota to enjoy because the 2021 season fell flat.
It’d be silly to assume that Cruz will continue this level of production for another decade. Even another couple of years would be unprecedented. What he’s doing now though, is something that any contending team needing a designated hitter should covet. That makes his market limited in that half the league is then cut in half again, but you can bet that suitors will fight for his services.
There’s also not going to be a reunion tour. Minnesota and Cruz’s camp played a staring contest this winter. Neither wanted to blink first, but a return always seemed to be the best fit for both sides. As the Twins head into 2022 with uncertainty, the luxury of a big money designated hitter doesn’t seem reasonable. On top of that, we won’t know the direction chosen by the front office until July 31 comes and goes with Taylor Rogers, Jose Berrios, and Josh Donaldson still wearing Twins threads.
When the dust settles on this eventual move the Twins will have dealt one of the best power hitters ever to wear a Minnesota uniform. While Cruz’s time was ultimately brief, the impact (and especially that felt in 2019) will be talked about for years to come. Nelson was a late blooming player that never stopped getting better, has continued to impart wisdom on the game’s next generation, and his absence will sting more than just a bad team shedding moveable parts.
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Dman:  Excellent take on Cruz.  Beyond his production, his professionalism and tutelage of younger players will be missed a great deal.  Hopefully he'll be able to experience some playoff success.  He certainly deserves it.

It's hard thinking of this team without Cruz. But why should he be punished being stuck in the cellar.
Give him a chance to win a ring. He deserves that.

I'd like to see Cruz in Toronto. No idea what we'd get from them but I really like Vlad jr so it's an easy team to root for.

To be fair, we're talking about a couple of sub-10 game sample sizes. He'll get a shot when Cruz is traded and then he'll immediately have to make it stick.

I know it's been said often but all these injuries really suck!

Odorizzi was a solid acquisition in 2018 (and is starting to pay off for the Astros now too, maybe we should have kept him?). Pineda had been good when he was on the field until recently, and Hill was all right in 2020 too.

My impression of the Twins plan coming into the season was that Happ and Shoemaker were placeholders until the Twins top pitching prospects were ready. Unfortunately Happ/Shoemaker were both terrible and the next level of mediocre depth fell apart (Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer). To make matters worse, Maeda and Pineda have had injury issues that have limited their effective innings. Adding insult to injury, the top pitching prospects have been injured (Duran and Canterino) or had a very late start with inconsistent results (Balazovic). Basically every facet of the starting pitching has collapsed this season leaving no way to salvage the rotation. 
I don't know that anyone could have predicted the complete meltdown on every level, but some of the issues were not surprising (Happ/Shoemaker disaster). The front office needs to put a much better plan in place for 2022 if they hope to be competitive.

Yeah all the experts thought the Twins reached when they took him in the third round mainly because of the lack of power but he looks like the best bat they took so far.

Fear the Steer!!!!!