Ted Schwerzler

With Aaron Judge following up his incredible rookie season by landing the cover of MLB The Show 18, the most limited edition has been dubbed "All Rise." If there's anything to glen from the gameplay release trailer that dropped today, it's that the team at Sony San Diego is going all out.
 
While much of the gameplay is hard to deduce from the trailer, it looks as crisp as we've become accustomed to. The more necessary tweaks include tagging animations, hitting analysis, and overall refinements to the experience. That being said, there was more than a few big bits of excitement from the trailer debut, and most of them center around the Diamond Dynasty game mode.
 
After having Ken Griffey Jr. act as the cover boy a season ago, and make his debut on the virtual diamond, a handful of former greats enter the fold for the year ahead. First and foremost, Babe Ruth becomes the headliner. With an epic teaser sequence including his called shot, Ruth being prominently featured in a game highlighting Judge made all too much sense. The Hall of Famer will be joined by the likes of Doc Ellis, Don Sutton, Pee Wee Reese, Lee Smith, Troy Percival, and Benito Santiago. With this just being the first bit of information put forth for the new iteration, we could have a few more legends yet to be unveiled.
 
On top of the additions to the card collecting game mode, the trailer also showed off the Judge's Chambers in Yankee Stadium. After including stadium specific areas such as King's Court in Seattle and The 7 Line in New York a season ago, it's nice to see the presentation get expanded upon. There was also a tease of an airplane scene that would likely coincide with the popular Road to the Show mode. After being turned into somewhat of an RPG style narrative a season ago, expanding on the created player journey to the big leagues is a nice touch.
 
The official release date of MLB The Show 18 remains March 27, although a preorder will get you the game a few days earlier. Expect plenty of live streams and content drops in the coming weeks to further highlight what's new in the upcoming version.
 
Also here at Off The Baggy, I intend to do a regular hit on who to monitor for investment purposes in The Show 18 this season. Combining the allure of virtual baseball along with real life statistics in order to profit in the game is something that was great fun a year ago. Not looking to be a content creator, a regular blog post detailing where to keep your eye both on the diamond and in the game seems like a great crossover. See you all in The Show.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season, Brian Dozier looks to his future and sees free agency looming. Despite allowing the Minnesota Twins to buy out his arbitration years in a four-year, $20 million deal, the hometown squad couldn't lock him in past free agency. Now, as the two sides ponder an extension, it's worth wondering how the year ahead could go for one of baseball's best players.
 
Dating back to 2014, only Jose Altuve has been at the position (in terms of fWAR) than the Twins two-bagger. In that time, Dozier has become an All Star, Home Run Derby participant, Gold Glove winner, and MVP vote getter. He began as an aging and failed shortstop, and revolutionized himself into a premium player at a position generally void of them across the sport.
 
Despite hitting 42 long balls in 2016, Dozier's emergence as an offensive threat has been anything but a slow burn. He's been on a relative tear for the past four seasons. With a slash line of .254/.338/.476 and 127 homers since 2014, there's no denying that the Mississippi native could be inserted into the heart of many lineups across the sport.
 
Looking at the year ahead and beyond, it's worth wondering what to expect from Brian, and what that tells us about any more potentially on the table. First and foremost, it's worth mentioning that there seems to be a heightened level of performance in the final year of deals. Both Dozier and the Twins could strike a match before spring training ends, and while there's not an exact science to it, nothing on the table could prove as motivation to reach new heights.
 
In somewhat of an interesting case, Dozier is a late bloomer. He didn't reach the big leagues until 25, and he didn't become a significant cog until his age 27 season in 2014. He's played at least 152 games each of the past four years, and while there's been slumps tied loosely to overuse, his availability to the Twins has been remarkable.
Recent memory serves Dozier even more favorably. Over the past two seasons, Dozier has posted back to back .800+ OPS numbers, and compiled a .269/.349/.522 slash line. His 131 OPS+ jumps off the page, and his 76 homers are an astounding number given the position he plays. While the Gold Glove may be more reflective of his offensive prowess, it's hard to argue Brian Dozier as anything but the best second basemen not named Jose Altuve at the current juncture.
 
That being said, both Dozier and the Twins aren't too concerned with what has taken place. Although it's previous production that Brian will tie his argument for future dollars to, it's the projections going forward that will open the wallets of any would be suitors. Now on the wrong side of 30 years old, Dozier's case is somewhat of an anomaly. He's been a beacon of health throughout his time in the big leagues, and as a senior sign, compiled only 365 games in the minors. While he's aging, there's an argument to be made that there could be a decent amount of tread left on the tires.
 
Trying to glean insight from ZiPS as well Marcell projection systems, Dozier has some 2018 numbers to pick at. ZiPS sees a .257/.341/.482 slash with 31 homers, while Marcell comes in with a .259/.337/.494 slash and also 31 homers. Both the OPS numbers fall below the .856 mark posted in 2017, but remain above the .800 level that would put him in star company. After following up the 42 Home run output with a tally of 34 a year ago, the projection systems agreeing on 31 would be almost exactly in line with his four-year average.
 
What I think we can expect from Brian Dozier in 2018 is something along the lines of what he's established as norms. The power should continue to be there, even despite an expected level of regression a season ago. Reaching the 30 plateau should again be more than doable, and doing so with an .800+ OPS is hardly a longshot. Among the biggest areas of growth in recent seasons for Dozier has been his ability to get on base. Although he strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter, the ability to draw walks has grown, and his .359 OBP of 2017 was a shining bright spot. Dropping down to something like a .345 OBP wouldn't be unexpected, but it would hardly be a significant detractor either.
 
It's understandably hard to believe in immeasurable principles, but should Dozier enter the season in a "contract year," then I think we'd be in for a slight uptick across the board. Regardless, any level of regression should be muted as it appears the late-bloomer is in the heart of his prime. A long term deal may not benefit the signing team well as an elder free agent can crash fast, but Minnesota has to feel good about getting Dozier's best for as long as they have.
 
If we've learned anything over the past two or three seasons with Dozier, it's not to bet against him. While he's transformed himself into a pull hitter while generating significant power, he's also adapted to opposing pitchers. Up and in balls still end up over the fence, but he's been able to do far more than the approach had initially suggested may be possible. An overview of the 2018 Twins lineup should again be described as a run producer, but there's little mystery to the fact that Brian Dozier will be in the heart of that reality.
 
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As the 2018 Major League Baseball seasons draws ever more near, the Minnesota Twins are looking to replicate a season that saw its end in the postseason. While they'd prefer to avoid the one-game playoff in the Wild Card game, that would mean overtaking the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. With the division looking like a two horse race, it's worth checking in on the possibility of that outcome.
 
In observing the Indians from afar, comparing them to the Twins may be best done by positional group. If we break down the active roster into groups consisting of starters, relievers, infielders, outfielders, and bench, we should have a relatively clear five-subject analysis to look at. With those parameters set out in front of us, here's how the cream of the AL Central crop stacks up.
 
Starters: Indians
 
Even if the Twins sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, the Minnesota rotation will fall behind that of Cleveland. While a Darvish, Jose Berrios, and Ervin Santana top three would rival Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer, it's the back end that has questions. For Paul Molitor, it's safe to assume a new name is going to enter the bunch, that means there will be just two spots left to fill out the rotation. Right now, it appears that those jobs will be owned by Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes out of the gate.
 
Terry Francona has the luxury of going to Danny Salazar as his fourth, and Mike Clevinger as his fifth. Salazar has as much upside as anyone, and his stuff gets big league batters out at an alarming rate (when he keeps it in the zone). Minnesota has the opportunity to raise the water level as 2018 draws on, and if someone like Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Fernando Romero, or a host of other arms forces out Gibson or Hughes, it would likely be for the better long term.
 
A year or two ago, the divide between the Twins and Indians on the mound was substantial. Given Kluber's Cy Young status, and the depth of the group overall, they still tout an impressive five. All things considered, Minnesota has closed the gap measurably, and that will continue to be an area of focus for the immediate future.
 
Relievers: Indians
 
Where the Twins were more top-heavy as opposed to having depth in the rotation, the two squads may be the opposite in the pen. Bryan Shaw is gone in Cleveland, and the innings eater won't be there for Francona to call on in 2018. They still boast an incredible one-two punch in Cody Allen and Andrew Miller however, and both could be named among the best in the bullpen across all of baseball. Behind that duo though, there's a relative falloff, and that's where Minnesota's opportunity comes in.
 
The trio of signings Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made in relief this winter can be categorized as nothing short of a grand slam. Fernando Rodney has his warts, but he's still effective in the late-innings, with upper 90's stuff. Zach Duke is a great gamble even further removed from Tommy John surgery, and Addison Reed is among that "best relievers in Baseball" category. Adding that group to holdovers like Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a huge plus for Paul Molitor's club.
 
If Minnesota wants to nab this category, and they're very close to doing so, Ryan Pressly and Tyler Duffey need to be at their best. Pressly is an impact arm that can shoulder high leverage when he's right, while Duffey has worked late innings prior to his pro career and has a nice two pitch mix that profiles well in relief.
 
Infielders: Indians
 
This category is absolutely in Cleveland's favor, but the Twins aren't as distant as it may seem. Francisco Lindor is one of the best young players in the game, and whether or not his game ends up being power or average, he's going to hit. Jose Ramirez is the best star that doesn't get enough attention, and Yonder Alonso is coming off a breakout 2017. Losing Carlos Santana will hurt this group, and Jason Kipnis' best days are maybe behind him. As a whole though, this is a strong outfit.
 
It's obvious that Brian Dozier is the cornerstone of Minnesota's infield. Behind Jose Altuve, he is probably the second best player at the position. Jorge Polanco showed his bat will play down the stretch a season ago, and Miguel Sano is going to hit a good amount of longballs for plenty of years to come. If Joe Mauer continues to play elite defense, his value will fail to sag any time soon as well.
 
Behind the dish, I'd prefer Jason Castro and Mitch Garver over Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes, but I could be a bit bullish on what I expect from Garver in 2018.
 
Regardless of the total collection, these two infields are loaded with talent, and the Indians has a bit more sustainability and depth, the Twins aren't too far behind. Both of these groups can hit, and the fielding acumen is pretty close as well. As you can see becoming a trend, the gap is closing.
 
Outfielders: Twins
 
There's little argument to be made against Byron Buxton being the best outfielder in baseball. He's the game's best defender, and plays the premium position of the three spots. His speed and arm are both elite, while he continues to improve on route running. Should his bat again be ready to unleash the fury James Rowson helped to tease us with for the better part of 2017, Minnesota has an MVP candidate on its hands.
 
Both Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler have holes in their game, and despite his strong 2017, it's Rosario I'm more uncertain about. The strong arm is there, and he may profile better in right, but route efficienty has been somewhat of a question. Tightening up around the plate will benefit him, but he's always going to be a free-swinger. Kepler has the look of a Christian Yelich type, and that ceiling remains. If he's able to harness that ability in 2018, Minnesota will be in a great spot.
 
For the Indians, Bradley Zimmer has graduated from prospect status and is now expected to be a regular. Defense is an definite tool of his, but the bat lagged behind in his debut. Michael Brantley is an All Star, but his body is fighting against him, and Lonnie Chisenhall is nothing more than a rotational type at this point in his career. The group has plenty to offer, and doesn't have glaring weaknesses, but there's hardly a shining strength either.
 
Bench: Indians
 
Including the designated hitter into this equation, Cleveland's upper hand is significantly loaded from the top. Edwin Encarnacion is a destroyer of baseballs, and should be expected to continue with those contributions in the season ahead. Behind him however, there's a significant (and expected) drop off. Tyler Naquin is a nice rotational outfielder, and Giovanny Urshela seems to get plenty of use over the course of a season.
 
Unlike the Indians, Minnesota doesn't have a true DH (at least until it becomes Miguel Sano's assumed role). Robbie Grossman has been an invaluable add, and is an OBP machine, but he's slumped at times and is limited defensively. Eduardo Escobar is a very good utility man, and Ehire Adrianza gives the Twins a nice glove first player.
 
Looking at reserves, you're picking at straws to a certain extent. If you have a one-dimensional player though, allowing that to be a guy that trots the bases with a parrot on his arm is hardly a bad position to be in. If everything else gets taken care of for Minnesota this offseason, a bat addition would be nice, but it's not coming in the form of an impact player.
 
Overall, it's apparent the Twins are still playing second fiddle to the Cleveland Indians. What's also apparent is that the gap between the two clubs is no longer wide. With pitching being one of the greatest differences, Minnesota has drawn closer in relief. Over the course of a season series, or even the full 162 game slate, I'd be far from shocked to see these two clubs flip flop.
 
In the Twins last two competitive seasons (2015 & 2017), they went 12-7 and 7-12 against Falvey's former organization respectively. The divide probably isn't worthy of being nearly a 2:1 or 1:2 scenario, but that's the volatility that any one season brings. Right now, Cleveland is still the AL Central favorites, but Minnesota is making a run to change that, and the competition in the American League could push them to realizing a division crown as their best path to the postseason.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As the 2018 Major League Baseball seasons draws ever more near, the Minnesota Twins are looking to replicate a season that saw its end in the postseason. While they'd prefer to avoid the one-game playoff in the Wild Card game, that would mean overtaking the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. With the division looking like a two horse race, it's worth checking in on the possibility of that outcome.
 
In observing the Indians from afar, comparing them to the Twins may be best done by positional group. If we break down the active roster into groups consisting of starters, relievers, infielders, outfielders, and bench, we should have a relatively clear five-subject analysis to look at. With those parameters set out in front of us, here's how the cream of the AL Central crop stacks up.
 
Starters: Indians
 
Even if the Twins sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, the Minnesota rotation will fall behind that of Cleveland. While a Darvish, Jose Berrios, and Ervin Santana top three would rival Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer, it's the back end that has questions. For Paul Molitor, it's safe to assume a new name is going to enter the bunch, that means there will be just two spots left to fill out the rotation. Right now, it appears that those jobs will be owned by Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes out of the gate.
 
Terry Francona has the luxury of going to Danny Salazar as his fourth, and Mike Clevinger as his fifth. Salazar has as much upside as anyone, and his stuff gets big league batters out at an alarming rate (when he keeps it in the zone). Minnesota has the opportunity to raise the water level as 2018 draws on, and if someone like Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Fernando Romero, or a host of other arms forces out Gibson or Hughes, it would likely be for the better long term.
 
A year or two ago, the divide between the Twins and Indians on the mound was substantial. Given Kluber's Cy Young status, and the depth of the group overall, they still tout an impressive five. All things considered, Minnesota has closed the gap measurably, and that will continue to be an area of focus for the immediate future.
 
Relievers: Indians
 
Where the Twins were more top-heavy as opposed to having depth in the rotation, the two squads may be the opposite in the pen. Bryan Shaw is gone in Cleveland, and the innings eater won't be there for Francona to call on in 2018. They still boast an incredible one-two punch in Cody Allen and Andrew Miller however, and both could be named among the best in the bullpen across all of baseball. Behind that duo though, there's a relative falloff, and that's where Minnesota's opportunity comes in.
 
The trio of signings Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made in relief this winter can be categorized as nothing short of a grand slam. Fernando Rodney has his warts, but he's still effective in the late-innings, with upper 90's stuff. Zach Duke is a great gamble even further removed from Tommy John surgery, and Addison Reed is among that "best relievers in Baseball" category. Adding that group to holdovers like Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a huge plus for Paul Molitor's club.
 
If Minnesota wants to nab this category, and they're very close to doing so, Ryan Pressly and Tyler Duffey need to be at their best. Pressly is an impact arm that can shoulder high leverage when he's right, while Duffey has worked late innings prior to his pro career and has a nice two pitch mix that profiles well in relief.
 
Infielders: Indians
 
This category is absolutely in Cleveland's favor, but the Twins aren't as distant as it may seem. Francisco Lindor is one of the best young players in the game, and whether or not his game ends up being power or average, he's going to hit. Jose Ramirez is the best star that doesn't get enough attention, and Yonder Alonso is coming off a breakout 2017. Losing Carlos Santana will hurt this group, and Jason Kipnis' best days are maybe behind him. As a whole though, this is a strong outfit.
 
It's obvious that Brian Dozier is the cornerstone of Minnesota's infield. Behind Jose Altuve, he is probably the second best player at the position. Jorge Polanco showed his bat will play down the stretch a season ago, and Miguel Sano is going to hit a good amount of longballs for plenty of years to come. If Joe Mauer continues to play elite defense, his value will fail to sag any time soon as well.
 
Behind the dish, I'd prefer Jason Castro and Mitch Garver over Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes, but I could be a bit bullish on what I expect from Garver in 2018.
 
Regardless of the total collection, these two infields are loaded with talent, and the Indians has a bit more sustainability and depth, the Twins aren't too far behind. Both of these groups can hit, and the fielding acumen is pretty close as well. As you can see becoming a trend, the gap is closing.
 
Outfielders: Twins
 
There's little argument to be made against Byron Buxton being the best outfielder in baseball. He's the game's best defender, and plays the premium position of the three spots. His speed and arm are both elite, while he continues to improve on route running. Should his bat again be ready to unleash the fury James Rowson helped to tease us with for the better part of 2017, Minnesota has an MVP candidate on its hands.
 
Both Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler have holes in their game, and despite his strong 2017, it's Rosario I'm more uncertain about. The strong arm is there, and he may profile better in right, but route efficienty has been somewhat of a question. Tightening up around the plate will benefit him, but he's always going to be a free-swinger. Kepler has the look of a Christian Yelich type, and that ceiling remains. If he's able to harness that ability in 2018, Minnesota will be in a great spot.
 
For the Indians, Bradley Zimmer has graduated from prospect status and is now expected to be a regular. Defense is an definite tool of his, but the bat lagged behind in his debut. Michael Brantley is an All Star, but his body is fighting against him, and Lonnie Chisenhall is nothing more than a rotational type at this point in his career. The group has plenty to offer, and doesn't have glaring weaknesses, but there's hardly a shining strength either.
 
Bench: Indians
 
Including the designated hitter into this equation, Cleveland's upper hand is significantly loaded from the top. Edwin Encarnacion is a destroyer of baseballs, and should be expected to continue with those contributions in the season ahead. Behind him however, there's a significant (and expected) drop off. Tyler Naquin is a nice rotational outfielder, and Giovanny Urshela seems to get plenty of use over the course of a season.
 
Unlike the Indians, Minnesota doesn't have a true DH (at least until it becomes Miguel Sano's assumed role). Robbie Grossman has been an invaluable add, and is an OBP machine, but he's slumped at times and is limited defensively. Eduardo Escobar is a very good utility man, and Ehire Adrianza gives the Twins a nice glove first player.
 
Looking at reserves, you're picking at straws to a certain extent. If you have a one-dimensional player though, allowing that to be a guy that trots the bases with a parrot on his arm is hardly a bad position to be in. If everything else gets taken care of for Minnesota this offseason, a bat addition would be nice, but it's not coming in the form of an impact player.
 
Overall, it's apparent the Twins are still playing second fiddle to the Cleveland Indians. What's also apparent is that the gap between the two clubs is no longer wide. With pitching being one of the greatest differences, Minnesota has drawn closer in relief. Over the course of a season series, or even the full 162 game slate, I'd be far from shocked to see these two clubs flip flop.
 
In the Twins last two competitive seasons (2015 & 2017), they went 12-7 and 7-12 against Falvey's former organization respectively. The divide probably isn't worthy of being nearly a 2:1 or 1:2 scenario, but that's the volatility that any one season brings. Right now, Cleveland is still the AL Central favorites, but Minnesota is making a run to change that, and the competition in the American League could push them to realizing a division crown as their best path to the postseason.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As spring training looms, Paul Molitor and the Minnesota Twins will soon have to make some tough decisions. While the 25 man roster as a whole must be settled upon, the Twins will need to decide how they'll round out the rotation. It's obvious another Jose Berrios or Ervin Santana type impact arm is needed, but on the back end, the group has plenty of suitors. For two players though, the future is all but certain.
 
First, there's 31 year-old Phil Hughes. Still owed $26.4 million through 2019, the premature extension Terry Ryan handed out continues to be the fit that keeps on giving. Hughes gave Minnesota just 53.2 IP a season ago, and that was in follow up to a 2016 that saw him turn in just 59.0 IP. Despite being a true Cy Young candidate in 2014, his first year with Minnesota, it's been a deep dive off a cliff since.
 
The past two seasons, Hughes has dealt with a myriad of injuries. From breaking a bone in his leg, to undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery, health has not been something he can lay claim to. It's the TOS procedure that remains relatively difficult to come back from, and the list of those who've successfully recovered is not a long one (Matt Harvey of the Mets finds himself on the wrong side of the discussion as well). After turning in a 5.87 ERA and allowing opposing hitters a .907 OPS off of him, Hughes was shut down and again went searching for answers.
 
On August 10, Hughes underwent Thoracic Outlet Syndrome revision surgery, in hopes it would help set him up for a cleaner bill of health in the year ahead. Now fully healed, the question turns to what he can give Minnesota. The past two seasons, he's allowed hard contact roughly 40% of the time. When he was going well in 2014, that number was 32%, and it's just 38.9% over the course of his career. Maybe most alarming however is the significant dip in velocity. After throwing his fastball at 93 mph from 2009-2014, he's lost at least 3 mph over the past two seasons. Such a significant decrease can obviously cause issues, and could end up contributing to a career ending decline.
 
If he's healthy, the Twins would be getting a command artist back in the fold. Hughes at his best is a plenty serviceable back end option, and would be more than capable of being entrusted to take the ball every 5th day. Although the upside isn't there, and he's probably past his prime, a staff could do much worse than a solid Phil Hughes. How long of a leash he has to prove that's where he's at, or if there is truly a clean bill of health all remain fair questions. With north of $20 million left on his deal, it's hard to see the Twins cutting bait, but I can't imagine the current structure allowing for ineffectiveness either.
 
On the opposite end of the return spectrum is one-time top prospect Trevor May. Making his return from Tommy John surgery, May likely won't be ready on Opening Day, but also shouldn't be far off. Prior to the injury, it appeared May was going to be given every opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation. Despite being used solely as a reliever in 2016, the desire to get more use out of him seemed apparent.
 
As a reliever, May posted an elite 12.7 K/9 and a manageable 3.6 BB/9. His 1.5 HR/9 led to an inflated ERA, but the 3.80 FIP suggests there was quality beyond the surface. While May in the bullpen could truly be an asset to Minnesota, there's also the question as to whether or not his back could put up with the workload. Never working solely as a reliever, injuries flared as he was called upon to pitch more often, and ready himself at a significantly quicker pace.
 
Prior to his injury, May appeared to be more than a soft tossing arm deployed out of the Twins stable. As a starter, he averaged right around 94 mph on his fastball, and bumped that up to 95 mph coming out of the pen. While not triple digits, sustained velocity in the mid 90's is something that Minnesota would no doubt welcome. It's fair to wonder whether or not the surgery will sap some of the electricity, but track records for Tommy John patients have greatly improved over time.
 
In both cases, Minnesota will have some difficult decisions to make. There's a much better case to be made for May being inserted into the rotation if healthy. His long term value remains of benefit to the club, and at 28, his prime still should be in front of him. Outside of monetary obligations it's hard to say the same for Hughes. Unless he's a lights out 2014 version of himself, there's plenty of reason for skepticism when it comes to future contributions.
 
At any rate, the Twins have two starters locked in, and a third (Kyle Gibson) pretty close to being written in ink as well. The necessary addition of a top level arm remains a must, but how the 5th and final spot shakes out is anyones guess. Both Hughes and May will be in the conversation, but how will the production from both speak?
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As spring training looms, Paul Molitor and the Minnesota Twins will soon have to make some tough decisions. While the 25 man roster as a whole must be settled upon, the Twins will need to decide how they'll round out the rotation. It's obvious another Jose Berrios or Ervin Santana type impact arm is needed, but on the back end, the group has plenty of suitors. For two players though, the future is all but certain.
 
First, there's 31 year-old Phil Hughes. Still owed $26.4 million through 2019, the premature extension Terry Ryan handed out continues to be the fit that keeps on giving. Hughes gave Minnesota just 53.2 IP a season ago, and that was in follow up to a 2016 that saw him turn in just 59.0 IP. Despite being a true Cy Young candidate in 2014, his first year with Minnesota, it's been a deep dive off a cliff since.
 
The past two seasons, Hughes has dealt with a myriad of injuries. From breaking a bone in his leg, to undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery, health has not been something he can lay claim to. It's the TOS procedure that remains relatively difficult to come back from, and the list of those who've successfully recovered is not a long one (Matt Harvey of the Mets finds himself on the wrong side of the discussion as well). After turning in a 5.87 ERA and allowing opposing hitters a .907 OPS off of him, Hughes was shut down and again went searching for answers.
 
On August 10, Hughes underwent Thoracic Outlet Syndrome revision surgery, in hopes it would help set him up for a cleaner bill of health in the year ahead. Now fully healed, the question turns to what he can give Minnesota. The past two seasons, he's allowed hard contact roughly 40% of the time. When he was going well in 2014, that number was 32%, and it's just 38.9% over the course of his career. Maybe most alarming however is the significant dip in velocity. After throwing his fastball at 93 mph from 2009-2014, he's lost at least 3 mph over the past two seasons. Such a significant decrease can obviously cause issues, and could end up contributing to a career ending decline.
 
If he's healthy, the Twins would be getting a command artist back in the fold. Hughes at his best is a plenty serviceable back end option, and would be more than capable of being entrusted to take the ball every 5th day. Although the upside isn't there, and he's probably past his prime, a staff could do much worse than a solid Phil Hughes. How long of a leash he has to prove that's where he's at, or if there is truly a clean bill of health all remain fair questions. With north of $20 million left on his deal, it's hard to see the Twins cutting bait, but I can't imagine the current structure allowing for ineffectiveness either.
 
On the opposite end of the return spectrum is one-time top prospect Trevor May. Making his return from Tommy John surgery, May likely won't be ready on Opening Day, but also shouldn't be far off. Prior to the injury, it appeared May was going to be given every opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation. Despite being used solely as a reliever in 2016, the desire to get more use out of him seemed apparent.
 
As a reliever, May posted an elite 12.7 K/9 and a manageable 3.6 BB/9. His 1.5 HR/9 led to an inflated ERA, but the 3.80 FIP suggests there was quality beyond the surface. While May in the bullpen could truly be an asset to Minnesota, there's also the question as to whether or not his back could put up with the workload. Never working solely as a reliever, injuries flared as he was called upon to pitch more often, and ready himself at a significantly quicker pace.
 
Prior to his injury, May appeared to be more than a soft tossing arm deployed out of the Twins stable. As a starter, he averaged right around 94 mph on his fastball, and bumped that up to 95 mph coming out of the pen. While not triple digits, sustained velocity in the mid 90's is something that Minnesota would no doubt welcome. It's fair to wonder whether or not the surgery will sap some of the electricity, but track records for Tommy John patients have greatly improved over time.
 
In both cases, Minnesota will have some difficult decisions to make. There's a much better case to be made for May being inserted into the rotation if healthy. His long term value remains of benefit to the club, and at 28, his prime still should be in front of him. Outside of monetary obligations it's hard to say the same for Hughes. Unless he's a lights out 2014 version of himself, there's plenty of reason for skepticism when it comes to future contributions.
 
At any rate, the Twins have two starters locked in, and a third (Kyle Gibson) pretty close to being written in ink as well. The necessary addition of a top level arm remains a must, but how the 5th and final spot shakes out is anyones guess. Both Hughes and May will be in the conversation, but how will the production from both speak?
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As things stand, the Minnesota Twins have made two moves regarding their bullpen this offseason. In signing both Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke to one-year deals, they bring in proven veterans with skills in all the right places for the Twins. It seems Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message in their relief acquisitions, and looking back to 2017, it is one that should be well received.
 
While teams have long since began venturing down the path of super bullpens, some of them go about it differently. At their peak, the Kansas City Royals seemed to do it more organically, while the Cleveland Indians moved some pieces around, and the current Colorado Rockies just threw money at everyone with a pulse. The idea that a start can be shortened through a strong bullpen is a good one, but it isn't a band-aid that can be applied to every organization.
 
For Minnesota, the reality is that both the starting pitching and relief staff needed work. With the cost of acquiring a starter being what it is, spending top dollar on a minimal impact role like a reliever is a tough ask. Instead, the Twins got creative by targeting high strikeout guys with strong track records. On top of that, they did so without much potential for negative repercussions considering the length and terms of each deal.
 
Where this story starts though, is at the beginning. Looking back to 2017, it's hard not to see Paul Molitor and his staff in a much better place when having to deploy relief help. There's no arguing that the Twins don't have an elite pen (or maybe even an above average one), but much improved is something they should have in spades.
 
On Opening Day of 2017, the Twins trotted Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Justin Haley, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, Brandon Kintzler, Craig Breslow, and Taylor Rogers out to the bullpen. Of that group, only three remain, and each of them should find a spot in the 2018 pen from the jump. Assuming Minnesota goes with seven relievers (after beginning with eight a year ago), I'd imagine the group consists of: Duffey, Rogers, Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Alan Busenitz, and Fernando Rodney.
 
Looking at the holdovers, you have two guys that have the ability to pitch in high leverage. While Pressly is the velocity guy, Duffey worked as a closer in college. Both can put the ball past opposing hitters, and looking for K/9 rates above 8.0 should be a safe assumption. In Rogers, Molitor gets a guy that was tested in his second year, and showed he can get batters out on both sides of the plate. Moving more towards the middle innings, he can act more as the second lefty, and be somewhat of a specialist.
 
In categorizing the additions, the Twins have a lot of new weapons at their disposal. Despite his age, Rodney is still pumping fastballs in the upper 90's. Yes he walks batters, but over the course of a full season, it's hard not to see him being an asset. Duke returned from Tommy John in record time, and the biggest takeaway from 2017 for him was health. He's a year removed from a 10.0 K/9 with the bulk of the season spent in the AL Central. Hildenberger and Busenitz both stepped in huge down the stretch for Minnesota a season ago. The former looked the part of a potential closer, while the latter is another velocity arm (95.8mph) that should see the strikeouts rise.
 
Given that this group is relatively established, and there's a bit more depth behind them, the Twins can feel a bit more at ease about their current positioning. We've been waiting on top relief arms to surface for some time, but names like Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss simply stepped up first. Should J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, and Jake Reed see their time come in 2018, the overall water level for the relief corps will only continue to rise.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins bullpen isn't going to wow anyone on paper. For fans who've followed the organization however, it looks like one of the better groups in quite some time, and one that speaks to a certain level of sustainability. It took some time to get away from the soft tossing aspect in relief, but that doesn't appear to be the plan of action for anyone (save for Duke) who will enter the field from behind the wall. It may all blow up when the action actually starts, but there's reason for optimism with the current collection to be sure.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As things stand, the Minnesota Twins have made two moves regarding their bullpen this offseason. In signing both Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke to one-year deals, they bring in proven veterans with skills in all the right places for the Twins. It seems Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message in their relief acquisitions, and looking back to 2017, it is one that should be well received.
 
While teams have long since began venturing down the path of super bullpens, some of them go about it differently. At their peak, the Kansas City Royals seemed to do it more organically, while the Cleveland Indians moved some pieces around, and the current Colorado Rockies just threw money at everyone with a pulse. The idea that a start can be shortened through a strong bullpen is a good one, but it isn't a band-aid that can be applied to every organization.
 
For Minnesota, the reality is that both the starting pitching and relief staff needed work. With the cost of acquiring a starter being what it is, spending top dollar on a minimal impact role like a reliever is a tough ask. Instead, the Twins got creative by targeting high strikeout guys with strong track records. On top of that, they did so without much potential for negative repercussions considering the length and terms of each deal.
 
Where this story starts though, is at the beginning. Looking back to 2017, it's hard not to see Paul Molitor and his staff in a much better place when having to deploy relief help. There's no arguing that the Twins don't have an elite pen (or maybe even an above average one), but much improved is something they should have in spades.
 
On Opening Day of 2017, the Twins trotted Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Justin Haley, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, Brandon Kintzler, Craig Breslow, and Taylor Rogers out to the bullpen. Of that group, only three remain, and each of them should find a spot in the 2018 pen from the jump. Assuming Minnesota goes with seven relievers (after beginning with eight a year ago), I'd imagine the group consists of: Duffey, Rogers, Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Alan Busenitz, and Fernando Rodney.
 
Looking at the holdovers, you have two guys that have the ability to pitch in high leverage. While Pressly is the velocity guy, Duffey worked as a closer in college. Both can put the ball past opposing hitters, and looking for K/9 rates above 8.0 should be a safe assumption. In Rogers, Molitor gets a guy that was tested in his second year, and showed he can get batters out on both sides of the plate. Moving more towards the middle innings, he can act more as the second lefty, and be somewhat of a specialist.
 
In categorizing the additions, the Twins have a lot of new weapons at their disposal. Despite his age, Rodney is still pumping fastballs in the upper 90's. Yes he walks batters, but over the course of a full season, it's hard not to see him being an asset. Duke returned from Tommy John in record time, and the biggest takeaway from 2017 for him was health. He's a year removed from a 10.0 K/9 with the bulk of the season spent in the AL Central. Hildenberger and Busenitz both stepped in huge down the stretch for Minnesota a season ago. The former looked the part of a potential closer, while the latter is another velocity arm (95.8mph) that should see the strikeouts rise.
 
Given that this group is relatively established, and there's a bit more depth behind them, the Twins can feel a bit more at ease about their current positioning. We've been waiting on top relief arms to surface for some time, but names like Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss simply stepped up first. Should J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, and Jake Reed see their time come in 2018, the overall water level for the relief corps will only continue to rise.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins bullpen isn't going to wow anyone on paper. For fans who've followed the organization however, it looks like one of the better groups in quite some time, and one that speaks to a certain level of sustainability. It took some time to get away from the soft tossing aspect in relief, but that doesn't appear to be the plan of action for anyone (save for Duke) who will enter the field from behind the wall. It may all blow up when the action actually starts, but there's reason for optimism with the current collection to be sure.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
For more from Off The Baggy (and to see the graphical depictions of this article) click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Eddie Rosario has always been a polarizing player for me. In his first extended stint with the Twins in 2015, he showed flashes of a really exciting all round game. He was a good base runner (4.7 runs above average), a solid defender (2.2 runs above average), and clobbered 13 home runs in his age 23 season. Rosario had excelled throughout 5 minor league destinations, and was noted for having an exceptionally quick bat and hands. There were a few major problems. Rosario struck out a lot (25% in 2015, compared to a league average 21%) and he rarely walked. Like, ever. In 2015 Rosario walked just 15 times in 474 plate appearances, good for a BB% of just 3.2%, well below the league average of 8.1%. Taken together, Rosario’s strikeouts and inability to take a walk amounted to cripplingly poor plate discipline.
 
In 2016 some of the aspects of Rosario’s game which made him exciting disappeared. His base running regressed marginally in 2016, and majorly in 2017. His defense went from good in 2015, to acceptable in 2016, to pretty bad in 2017 (-6.2 runs above average), a dip not often discussed in the Twins heralded ‘nothing falls but raindrops’ outfield, which should be renamed to reflect the fact that anyone not named Byron Buxton is actually a poor to average defensive outfielder.
 
Rosario’s regression and streaky hitting were so infuriating that it led to discussion about whether he would be the odd man out in the Twins up and coming outfield moving forwards, with Buxton spectacular, Kepler solid, and Zack Granite pushing for playing time with an impressive season at Rochester. Throughout his first two seasons, Rosario had shown little progress in his plate discipline, leading folks to voice the possibility that he had hit his ceiling. Enter James Rowson.
 
If Pat Shurmur is the MVP of the Vikings this season, Rowson deserves the same plaudits for his work with Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario in 2017. In researching Rowson, two things seem to stand out about his approach with the young core of Twins hitters; firstly, he wants players to have a high comfort level in taking ownership of their own swings, secondly, he’s keenly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of hit hitters and publicly pushes those buttons. After a game against the White Sox, Rowson named Rosario the player of the game, despite going 0-4, crediting him for helping teammates see more pitches from Jose Quintana which eventually allowed them to force him from the game.
 
Rosario’s numbers from 2017 are a testament to Rowson’s work. He increased his BB% to just under 6%, taking 23 more walks than he did in 2016. Rosario’s OBP jumped almost 30 points, despite a 26 point decrease in his BaBIP from 2016 to 2017. The main cause for this increased ability to get on base? Rosario was significantly more selective with his swings in 2017. He dropped his O-Swing % (the percentage of time he swings at pitches outside the strike zone) from 42% to 37%. This decreased his overall SwStr% around 5% and led to a significantly increased Contact% (percentage of the time a hitter makes contact when swinging at all pitches). Overall, Rosario wasn’t swinging at significantly less pitches, he’s swinging at significantly more hittable ones, leading to a spike in home runs, walks, and isolated power.
 
Entering his final pre-arbitration year in 2018 Rosario will need to keep his improved offensive output going to offset other diminishing skill sets. If Rosario can continue to build upon his improved plate discipline in 2018, he could finish the season as one of the more offensively productive outfielders in the American league.

While you were opening presents, spending time with your family, and scarfing down cookies on Christmas, the Minnesota Twins went shopping in the free agent pool. Zach Duke becomes the latest member of Paul Molitor's bullpen, and that has some different narratives we need to discuss. Then this morning, Darren Wolfson dropped a Miguel Sano sized bomb that needs some more dissecting as well.
 
Duke, who will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 35, is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. After undergoing the procedure in September of 2016, he returned for 27 appearances and 18.1 IP for the Cardinals a year ago. In that time, he posted a 3.93 ERA along with a 5.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. What makes Duke intriguing however, is what his numbers look like immediately prior to his injury.
 
Having pitched as a starter for the entirety of his time with the Pirates (2005-10), Duke didn't become a true full-time reliever until 2014. In his three years of relief work, he posted a 2.74 ERA across 180.1 IP for the Brewers, White Sox, and Cardinals. That number also came with a glowing 10.4 K/9 and a 3.9 BB/9. Out of the pen, Duke really didn't see much of a velocity boost, still hovering around the 89 mph range.
 
In 2017, Duke returned with his fastball averaging 88.1 mph (so slightly down from pre-surgery). He utilizes a sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball making him a valuable four-pitch pitcher in relief. As a lefty, Minnesota can now look at Buddy Boshers as expendable, and would then have an avenue to get the 40 man roster back to 39 players.
 
Per Darren Wolfson, Duke's deal is a one-year contract worth something like $1.5-2 million. This follows along the same lines as what I believe the Twins told us with Fernando Rodney. They looked for relief help that could be had on one-year deals with significant upside. Both Duke and Rodney are bolster a pen that needed help in 2017, and neither are true roadblocks to the emergence of players such as Tyler Jay, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, or Jake Reed. Rather than building an expensive pen, Minnesota is getting creative and making what seem to be smart decisions.
 
On another front, it appears that the Twins are exploring all avenues when it comes to bettering the roster as a whole. Talking on 1500 ESPN, Wolfson noted that Miguel Sano has been a name floated by Minnesota in trade talks. This hardly comes as a surprise, and I firmly believe Sano is the best piece of the young core to move if you are going to do so.
 
Making an offer to another team with Sano as the headliner right now could be a bit tricky. Although his .859 OPS a year ago represented a great season (and a career high 28 HRs), he's coming off a season ending surgery that resulted in a rod being inserted in his leg. Going forward, the Twins have suggested they don't see any limitations, but at this point, that's hardly a sure thing. When considering the landscape of Twins talent however, Sano's skillset jumps out as the most replaceable asset.
 
Going into any given year, you can expect a handful of things from Miguel Sano. He's probably going to play over an ideal weight, he'll hit a significant amount of home runs, he'll draw a decent amount of walks, the strikeouts will be there, and at times you'll need to utilize first base or the designated hitter spot to get him off of third. There's a lot of good in those realities, but there's a few very real detractors as well. Those detractors are no doubt the highlights of the conversations Minnesota's front office must have when considering moving their All Star third basemen.
 
Even with the injury uncertainty, Minnesota isn't simply going to have to give Sano away. While it may deflate his value a bit, I'd bet that there's plenty of teams looking at him as a future cornerstone. Should a match be made in which Sano can return front line pitching, I'd suggest that as something the Twins should explore. If Yu Darvish can't be had on the open market, a swap of Chris Archer for Miguel Sano (and another piece or two) could be something that would benefit the Twins in the long run.
 
Getting a controllable pitcher, with ace potential, in return for a power hitting corner infielder seems to be a decent tradeoff. Third base isn't a position with a ton of options, but both Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas remain available for a team to jump at. Eduardo Escobar could also assume the starting role, with a bigger bopper but lesser fielder left on the bench to rotate in. At any rate, the tradeoff seems one worth exploring.
 
As things stand now, I'd imagine Minnesota would prefer to sign Darvish as opposed to trading Sano. Keeping physical assets while spending cash should always be the preferred mode of acquisition with all things being equal. However, as the scenarios work themselves out, it certainly appears like Thad Levine and Derek Falvey have a backup plan or two in place. The Hot Stove may be cool for the moment, but I don't think we'll continue to see it stay that way for the rest of the winter.

While you were opening presents, spending time with your family, and scarfing down cookies on Christmas, the Minnesota Twins went shopping in the free agent pool. Zach Duke becomes the latest member of Paul Molitor's bullpen, and that has some different narratives we need to discuss. Then this morning, Darren Wolfson dropped a Miguel Sano sized bomb that needs some more dissecting as well.
 
Duke, who will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 35, is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. After undergoing the procedure in September of 2016, he returned for 27 appearances and 18.1 IP for the Cardinals a year ago. In that time, he posted a 3.93 ERA along with a 5.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. What makes Duke intriguing however, is what his numbers look like immediately prior to his injury.
 
Having pitched as a starter for the entirety of his time with the Pirates (2005-10), Duke didn't become a true full-time reliever until 2014. In his three years of relief work, he posted a 2.74 ERA across 180.1 IP for the Brewers, White Sox, and Cardinals. That number also came with a glowing 10.4 K/9 and a 3.9 BB/9. Out of the pen, Duke really didn't see much of a velocity boost, still hovering around the 89 mph range.
 
In 2017, Duke returned with his fastball averaging 88.1 mph (so slightly down from pre-surgery). He utilizes a sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball making him a valuable four-pitch pitcher in relief. As a lefty, Minnesota can now look at Buddy Boshers as expendable, and would then have an avenue to get the 40 man roster back to 39 players.
 
Per Darren Wolfson, Duke's deal is a one-year contract worth something like $1.5-2 million. This follows along the same lines as what I believe the Twins told us with Fernando Rodney. They looked for relief help that could be had on one-year deals with significant upside. Both Duke and Rodney are bolster a pen that needed help in 2017, and neither are true roadblocks to the emergence of players such as Tyler Jay, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, or Jake Reed. Rather than building an expensive pen, Minnesota is getting creative and making what seem to be smart decisions.
 
On another front, it appears that the Twins are exploring all avenues when it comes to bettering the roster as a whole. Talking on 1500 ESPN, Wolfson noted that Miguel Sano has been a name floated by Minnesota in trade talks. This hardly comes as a surprise, and I firmly believe Sano is the best piece of the young core to move if you are going to do so.
 
Making an offer to another team with Sano as the headliner right now could be a bit tricky. Although his .859 OPS a year ago represented a great season (and a career high 28 HRs), he's coming off a season ending surgery that resulted in a rod being inserted in his leg. Going forward, the Twins have suggested they don't see any limitations, but at this point, that's hardly a sure thing. When considering the landscape of Twins talent however, Sano's skillset jumps out as the most replaceable asset.
 
Going into any given year, you can expect a handful of things from Miguel Sano. He's probably going to play over an ideal weight, he'll hit a significant amount of home runs, he'll draw a decent amount of walks, the strikeouts will be there, and at times you'll need to utilize first base or the designated hitter spot to get him off of third. There's a lot of good in those realities, but there's a few very real detractors as well. Those detractors are no doubt the highlights of the conversations Minnesota's front office must have when considering moving their All Star third basemen.
 
Even with the injury uncertainty, Minnesota isn't simply going to have to give Sano away. While it may deflate his value a bit, I'd bet that there's plenty of teams looking at him as a future cornerstone. Should a match be made in which Sano can return front line pitching, I'd suggest that as something the Twins should explore. If Yu Darvish can't be had on the open market, a swap of Chris Archer for Miguel Sano (and another piece or two) could be something that would benefit the Twins in the long run.
 
Getting a controllable pitcher, with ace potential, in return for a power hitting corner infielder seems to be a decent tradeoff. Third base isn't a position with a ton of options, but both Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas remain available for a team to jump at. Eduardo Escobar could also assume the starting role, with a bigger bopper but lesser fielder left on the bench to rotate in. At any rate, the tradeoff seems one worth exploring.
 
As things stand now, I'd imagine Minnesota would prefer to sign Darvish as opposed to trading Sano. Keeping physical assets while spending cash should always be the preferred mode of acquisition with all things being equal. However, as the scenarios work themselves out, it certainly appears like Thad Levine and Derek Falvey have a backup plan or two in place. The Hot Stove may be cool for the moment, but I don't think we'll continue to see it stay that way for the rest of the winter.

At the Minnesota Twins embarked upon the offseason, one area of necessary improvement was in finding a top of the rotation starting pitcher. While ace types don't grow on trees, the free agent landscape had a few answers. Now, as the crop of available arms has thinned, it begs wondering whether it's Yu Darvish or bust for the hometown team.
 
While it's true that the Twins need to address starting pitching, it's also a fact that they need to focus on it at the top. Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios are currently the top two options for the club. As things stand, Santana is a nice 2 or 3 type, while Berrios fits in there with a potential to climb higher. Behind them though, there's a large group of guys that represent back end rotation options. Everyone from Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes to Trevor May, Aaron Slegers, Dietrich Enns, Adalberto Mejia, and Felix Jorge would be among this bunch. That's a lot of arms that have very similar projections.
 
For Minnesota to best position themselves coming off a Wild Card season, they'll need to put their best foot forward on the 2018 Opening Day roster. Both the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels have gotten significantly better, and Minnesota's best opportunity may be in taking sights at a weak AL Central. Expecting just five starters to make appearances all year is a pipe dream (heck, in 2017 the Twins used 16), so having the depth arms helps. What a glut of back end options doesn't do however, is raise the overall water level.
 
Unfortunately for Minnesota, it's getting to the point that Darvish may be the only option that moves the needle. Both Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb still remain on the open market. Returning from Tommy John surgery, Lynn posted a 7.4 K/9 along with a 3.43 ERA in 2017. Those marks are down from his career norms, and while he could see an uptick the further he gets from Tommy John, there's no guarantees at 31 years old. Cobb had a healthy 2017, and while it wasn't the 2.82 ERA and 8.2 K/9 he posted in 2013/14, his 6.4 K/9 and 3.66 ERA would be more than serviceable for the Twins. Both of those guys however, check in right at the level of Santana and Berrios.
 
Of the remaining options (and ruling out Jake Arrieta based upon projected value and asking price), Darvish is clearly a step above the rest. His 3.86 ERA in 2017 isn't glowing, but the 10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 numbers were nothing short of ace-like. He fared significantly better once out of the hitters park that is the Ballpark in Arlington, and Target Field would be more than a welcoming home. He'll also be further removed from Tommy John surgery, and while he too will be 31, the velocity (94.7mph in 2017) was actually above his pre-surgery years.
 
Should Minnesota end up landing on either Cobb or Lynn, they'll likely pay something north of an average annual value of $12 million to get them. Yes, it's fair to assume that Darvish is going to command double that, but it comes down to what kind of staff Derek Falvey and Thad Levine want to build. Adding Lynn or Cobb would give the Twins a three headed top half that resembles a good level of quality without a top end expectation of performance. Thrusting Darvish into the top of the group would allow the Twins an arm they could lean on winning games by its own merits every fifth day.
 
There's a lot to unpack, and deciding to drop that amount of cash into one player is undoubtedly a tough ask. For Minnesota though, this seems like the perfect storm to splurge a bit, and neither Lynn or Cobb fall within those parameters. The Twins are hardly the only team vying for his services, but it'll be a tough pill to swallow if Yu ends up elsewhere in 2018.
 
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At the Minnesota Twins embarked upon the offseason, one area of necessary improvement was in finding a top of the rotation starting pitcher. While ace types don't grow on trees, the free agent landscape had a few answers. Now, as the crop of available arms has thinned, it begs wondering whether it's Yu Darvish or bust for the hometown team.
 
While it's true that the Twins need to address starting pitching, it's also a fact that they need to focus on it at the top. Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios are currently the top two options for the club. As things stand, Santana is a nice 2 or 3 type, while Berrios fits in there with a potential to climb higher. Behind them though, there's a large group of guys that represent back end rotation options. Everyone from Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes to Trevor May, Aaron Slegers, Dietrich Enns, Adalberto Mejia, and Felix Jorge would be among this bunch. That's a lot of arms that have very similar projections.
 
For Minnesota to best position themselves coming off a Wild Card season, they'll need to put their best foot forward on the 2018 Opening Day roster. Both the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels have gotten significantly better, and Minnesota's best opportunity may be in taking sights at a weak AL Central. Expecting just five starters to make appearances all year is a pipe dream (heck, in 2017 the Twins used 16), so having the depth arms helps. What a glut of back end options doesn't do however, is raise the overall water level.
 
Unfortunately for Minnesota, it's getting to the point that Darvish may be the only option that moves the needle. Both Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb still remain on the open market. Returning from Tommy John surgery, Lynn posted a 7.4 K/9 along with a 3.43 ERA in 2017. Those marks are down from his career norms, and while he could see an uptick the further he gets from Tommy John, there's no guarantees at 31 years old. Cobb had a healthy 2017, and while it wasn't the 2.82 ERA and 8.2 K/9 he posted in 2013/14, his 6.4 K/9 and 3.66 ERA would be more than serviceable for the Twins. Both of those guys however, check in right at the level of Santana and Berrios.
 
Of the remaining options (and ruling out Jake Arrieta based upon projected value and asking price), Darvish is clearly a step above the rest. His 3.86 ERA in 2017 isn't glowing, but the 10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 numbers were nothing short of ace-like. He fared significantly better once out of the hitters park that is the Ballpark in Arlington, and Target Field would be more than a welcoming home. He'll also be further removed from Tommy John surgery, and while he too will be 31, the velocity (94.7mph in 2017) was actually above his pre-surgery years.
 
Should Minnesota end up landing on either Cobb or Lynn, they'll likely pay something north of an average annual value of $12 million to get them. Yes, it's fair to assume that Darvish is going to command double that, but it comes down to what kind of staff Derek Falvey and Thad Levine want to build. Adding Lynn or Cobb would give the Twins a three headed top half that resembles a good level of quality without a top end expectation of performance. Thrusting Darvish into the top of the group would allow the Twins an arm they could lean on winning games by its own merits every fifth day.
 
There's a lot to unpack, and deciding to drop that amount of cash into one player is undoubtedly a tough ask. For Minnesota though, this seems like the perfect storm to splurge a bit, and neither Lynn or Cobb fall within those parameters. The Twins are hardly the only team vying for his services, but it'll be a tough pill to swallow if Yu ends up elsewhere in 2018.
 
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On May 10, 2017 I opined on Twitter that Yu Darvish would look really good in a Minnesota Twins uniform. He was an impending free agent, had ties to half of the new front office, and would be an ace for a team desperately in need of one. From that point on, it was mentioned that was a pipe dream. Now, it may still be, but the reality is many more specifics are being discussed. When it comes to a free agent contract though, how much sense do the dollars actually make?
 
I have no idea what Darvish or any of the other type free agent starting pitchers will command on an average annual value basis. I'd imagine that each of them is targeting something upwards of $20m per year however. On a six-year deal, you're looking at a sum of at least $120 million at that point. While none of us are billionaires spending our own payroll on this, reality says that in the right situation, those actually doling out the cash shouldn't be afraid either.
 
When it comes to free agent contracts, and long term deals in general, there's one hard truth to how value is handed down. The reality is that payment is being made for past performance, and it's being granted on a future basis in hopes of projected performance. That's to say, you pay a hefty price for a top tier player's previous accolades, and you do so in length hoping it continues for your organization. The unfortunate other side of the coin is that nothing is guaranteed.
 
For Twins fast, this reality couldn't be any more prevalent than with Joe Mauer. At the time of his new deal, he was a soon to be 28 year-old with three batting titles, four All Star appearances, three Gold Gloves, and an MVP award under his belt. To be frank, he was on a trajectory to go down as the greatest catcher to ever play the game of baseball. Add in that a mid-market team had the marketability of him being a hometown guy and former number one overall pick to create your perfect storm. That was what the past performance looked like.
 
Unfortunately for Mauer and the Twins, the projected performance was dealt a huge blow thanks in part to a career altering brain injury. Despite two more All Star appearances, Mauer has been since forced out from behind the plate, and has had to recreate himself as a ballplayer in other ways. It's something neither party could have predicted nor hoped at the time the deal was struck. Bringing things full circle, we arrive yet again at the free agent landscape.
 
In 2015, Zack Greinke signed a six-year $206m deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. At 32 years old in 2016, he was mediocre at best and the Diamondbacks finished 4th in the NL West. A season ago, he bounced back nicely and helped to lead Arizona to a NLDS berth. Paired with the talent Arizona had, and the Dodgers seen as their main competition, the Diamondbacks went for it knowing they may get bit in the end. With four years left on his deal, Greinke probably has another season or two of high level production, and then it becomes time to pick up the pieces from there.
 
Another recent long term deal stays in the NL with the Washington Nationals. Max Scherzer is being paid $210 million over seven years, but the Nets deferred half the money, opting instead to pay him $15 million a year for 14 years. While it's great that Scherzer has been a three-time All Star and two-time Cy Young while with the Nationals, that deal was consummated to maximize a World Series opportunity with the likes of Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon. The window closes as Bryce likely leaves town prior to 2019, and Washington will then have to decide what's next.
 
Looking across the landscape of baseball, you can find any number of long term deals failing at the end. The unfortunate side effect of grabbing a proven vet for their last pay day, is that at some point, they'll get old. What should go into the thought process is how that aging and effectiveness bell curve lines up with what an organization currently sees as its future.
 
Back to the Twins, and really Darvish if we're being hopeful here. Does a six year deal upwards of $125 million strike some fear in the payroll breakdown? Maybe a little, but the factors suggest that it probably shouldn't. Forget about what money Minnesota has coming off the books, and look solely at what a Darvish type would do for the current state of the organization. Only the Cleveland Indians are in a position to be competitive among AL Central foes in the near future, and the Twins have gotten both young and good at the right time. Even if a long term/big money deal flops in the final year or two, maximizing the next four seasons should be something the Twins set out to do.
 
Four years from now guys like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton will be nearly 30 years old. They'll be eyeing free agency on their own. Brian Dozier will probably be long gone, and the talk may be of how Royce Lewis fits into the next wave. If adding a gaudy contract best positions Paul Molitor to get a World Series out of his current core, the focus should be on how beneficial that could be in the here and now, as opposed to when it falls apart some years down the road.
 
Not all free agents are created equal, and rarely do they enter the market young (hence why Manny Machado and Bryce Harper will need a Brinks truck next offseason). Shying away from proven talent in fear of a blowup deal can keep you safe, but rarely is it going to hand you the piece you may need most.
 
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This morning, the Twins started off the Wednesday of the Winter Meetings with an agreement. Former New York Yankees pitcher Michael Pineda, was announced as signing a two-year deal with the club. Before diving into any specifics, Minnesota adding starting pitching is a good thing. Opening up the hood however, that's where this move gets juicy.
 
Thad Levine and Derek Falvey targeted an injured player with their first major league free agent signing of the offseason. Pineda made 17 starts for the Yankees in 2017 prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. A best case scenario would put him on track to return late in 2018, but the more likely reality is that he misses all of the upcoming season. Knowing this, the front office got him on a team friendly two-year, $10 million deal. Paying him $2 million in the first year while he rehabs, the Twins will then bump his salary to $8 million in 2019.
 
Over the past three seasons for the Yankees, Pineda has thrown 432.2 IP and compiled a 4.56 ERA. His 3.82 FIP is a much nicer number, and his 9.5 K/9 would be easily the best mark on the Twins starting staff. He also pounds the zone well, issuing free passes at just a 2.0 BB/9 clip.
 
For the Twins, building a rotation more capable of missing bats and sitting down hitters, Pineda fits the mold. His fastball sits mid-90s and he pairs it with an upper 80s changeup and a mid 80s slider. Over the course of his career, he's owned a 12.5% swinging strike rate, which checks in around the same level as guys like Yu Darvish. In 2016 with the Yankees, Pineda spiked that number all the way up to 14.1%. He also generates a solid chase rate, getting batters to swing at pitches outside of the zone over one-third of the time.
 
Although Tommy John still presents a handful of hurdles to overcome, it's a much more routine procedure than it was even five years ago. Expecting some dip across the board is probably fair, but many pitchers return to the same level, if not better, after having the surgery. Paying $2 million in 2018 to have a hands on approach with a pitcher that will be just 30 years old in 2019 is a very good bet.
 
At the end of the day, a healthy Pineda probably gets something along the lines of Tyler Chatwood's three-year, $38 million deal. Instead of an average annual value north of $12.5 million, the Twins will get a healthy Pineda in 2019 at a modest $8 million mark. This is a creative way to take a gamble with significant upside, and it's the way teams with lower budgets should look to find competitive advantages.
 
Spending on Pineda does little to the Twins other plans, and it should only enhance Twins fans expectations of what lies ahead. This front office puts its best foot forward once again, and the more times it happens, it never seems to get old.
 
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As the Winter Meetings are underway, tons of scenario begin to be tossed around. Both free agents and trade candidates have names floated all over the place, and big league clubs are trying to best position themselves for the upcoming season. With the Minnesota Twins, exploring the trade route is an intriguing option, and one that Darren Wolfson has continued to suggest as likely for the hometown team. If that's the plan of action, what assets are worth keying in on?
 
Recently, a Pittsburgh Pirates based Twitter account tweeted out that a source confirmed the Twins were asked for Nick Gordon, Tyler Jay, and Zack Granite in exchange for Gerrit Cole. That tweet sent the Minnesota fanbase into somewhat of a frenzy as the pitching starved Twins would seem to come out well in making that exchange. Regardless of the validity surrounding those names or that tweet, there's one player that I see the Twins using as the key chip in any and all discussions.
 
Enter Nick Gordon.
 
The 5th overall pick in 2014, son of Flash, and brother of Dee, Nick has progressed to the Double-A level with Minnesota. In 2017, he slashed .270/.341/.408 and put up a career best .749 OPS. At 21 years old, he's still filling into his frame, and stands to develop even a bit further at the plate. When drafted, he was seen as a strong defender with the possibility to have an elite glove. Unfortunately, he's already begun to slide towards 2B, and errors have been an issue each of his four professional seasons.
 
Going forward, I'd argue that Gordon projects to have a ceiling of a sporadic All Star, with a more realistic landing spot as an average to slightly above-average regular. Despite not having the top end speed of his brother Dee, there are good wheels here. He'll need to continue to develop on the basepaths, especially in the run game, as he's got an ugly 65% success rate across 105 stolen base attempts. The bat will have to carry him further, especially if the landing spot ends up being second base. If power is going to be in relative short supply (9 homers at Double-A in 2017 was a career high), a push towards a .360 OBP would be more than a welcomed development.
 
Across baseball, Gordon has been ranked favorably on prospect lists each of the past three seasons. With numbers all over the place in 2015 and 2016, Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and Baseball Prospectus all have him right around 50 prior to 2017. Going into the 2018 season, I wouldn't be surprised to see either a slight decrease considering the influx or draft talent and the relative status quo that was his season with the Lookouts.
 
When making a move, part of the equation is what the belief the prospect you're giving up is going to become. In dealing prospects, you're getting a known commodity in return. A Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer, or another established pitcher has a relatively safe future when it comes to projections. The future of prospects comes down to internal scouting and belief as to what lies ahead. A player like Gordon could be enticing to both part with and acquire given what the future should hold. There's a pretty safe floor, and the ceiling hardly appears to be one of those that could haunt an organization.
 
At the end of the day, if I'm Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, Nick Gordon is the ideal player to have teams calling on and asking for. He's not close to the Royce Lewis realm, and for the other organization, doesn't have the volatility that may come with a Wander Javier type. At this time of year, it's always incredibly difficult to figure out what rumors are true, but a phone call on Gordon should be welcomed with opened arms.
 
Minnesota needs to add in a few key areas given that their window of competitiveness is now open. I looked at the path of using prospects as capital recently, and if that's the desired plan of action, let's hope the organization picks the right ones.
 
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When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine consummated trades with both the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels, they made much of absolutely nothing. Sending $1 million worth of International Bonus Pool space to both teams, the Twins got two legitimate prospects in return. Knowing that Bonus Pool is really not cash at all, makes the move even more shrewd.
 
Going into the offseason, the Twins had the third largest International Bonus pool to offer Shohei Ohtani or any other international free agent they wanted to grab. Once Ohtani let them know they weren't going to make his final cut, the club has significantly more clarity as to what they should use that flexibility for. International Bonus Pools really aren't money in terms of actual cash, but instead a threshold of what you can offer to players. With no one making the Twins jump, Falvey and Levine preyed on two teams still in the running for the assumed Japanese superstar.
 
Obviously there is only one Ohtani, so both the Mariners and Angels aren't going to end up with him. Each felt the additional spending flexibility would increase their chances however, and they parted with legitimate pieces to obtain that. The Angels gave up 2017 3rd round pick Jacob Pearson, while the Mariners parted with 5th round pick David Banuelos. For the Twins, two legitimate prospects looks a lot better than inanimate money destined for nowhere.
 
While the Angels farm system is notably weak, Pearson was their 5th overall prospect. MLB Pipeline slots him in at 22 for Minnesota, and I'd suggested he'd be 15th on my list. Banuelos would be outside the top 15, but I suggested I'd have him 18th behind LaMonte Wade and Akil Baddoo. Both players also fill a significant need on the farm, with Pearson able to play CF and Banuelos being an legitimate catcher.
 
Going forward, both players are going to take time to develop. Pearson is a high schooler from Louisiana that was headed to play on the same LSU team as (now teammate) Blayne Enlow. Banuelos is just 21 and also has less than a year of pro ball under his belt. The expectation from Pearson is that there should be some speed and a little pop in his bat, while Banuelos is seen as a strong receiver with very good pop times. Many of the Twins prospect outfield types are on the corners, and behind the dish, it's really just Ben Rortvedt.
 
We won't know how the narrative of these two players works out for at least the next couple of years, but right now, the process was executed flawlessly. Minnesota tried their hand at landing Ohtani, and when they couldn't, they preyed on those teams still in the running, They now have eight players taken in the first five rounds of the 2017 MLB draft, and adding talent to an organization is always a good practice.
 
The organization should have something like $1.2 million left in International Bonus spending space, and that should be enough to lure former signee Jelfry Marte if the club is still interested (per Darren Wolfson). There's no telling what Minnesota does with the rest of their allotment, and they may choose to do nothing at all. Right now though, we know that the move they made was an exceptional one.
 
Oh, and too bad to Seattle or Los Angeles, whichever one of of you doesn't land Ohtani and dealt on false hope.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As the Major League Baseball offseason trudges on, and the Winter Meetings soon commence, it's time to take a look at what the Minnesota Twins have on the farm. Over the past few years, the Twins have drafted higher in the draft, allowing them to stockpile talent replacing those who have graduated. Although the current class isn't headlined by a Byron Buxton, it's overall level is impressive.
 
Here at Off The Baggy, this will now be my third annual Top 15 Twins Prospect list. You can find 2016 here, and 2017 here. Many of those names are now on the big league club, and a few have moved on to other organizations. Prepping us for the season ahead, here's how I see the next wave of future Twins greats.
 
15. LaMonte Wade OF
 
A 9th round selection in the 2015 MLB Draft, Wade has continued to impress at each stop for the Twins. He ripped off an .805 OPS across 117 games at Double-A Chattanooga this year, and the seven home runs continue to suggest there's a bit of pop in his bat. Wade makes a ton of contact, and has walked more than he's struck out at each level. He may not have an All-Star ceiling, but being a nice rotational outfielder seems like a good bet.
 
14. Zack Littell SP
 
Brought into the organization through the Jaime Garcia deal with the Yankees, Littell provides an immediate boost to a club looking for pitching. He was lights out in the Eastern League, and continued to roll with Chattanooga. His strikeouts and walks both went in suboptimal directions following the trade, but it was a small seven game sample size. He has real strikeout ability, and should be a capable middle-of-the-rotation starter for Minnesota as early as 2018.
 
13. Brusdar Graterol SP
 
If there's an arm on the farm capable of challenging Fernando Romero's velocity, it's probably Greterol's. Just 19, he fared well in both the GCL and Appy League's this past season. With a big velocity fastball, and some solid secondary offerings, he's had no problem mowing down hitters at the lower level. He'll need to hone in command as he works on promotions, but the electric stuff makes him among the most intriguing Twins prospects in the system.
 
12. Lewis Thorpe SP
 
Returning to the mound following Tommy John surgery, Thorpe had a long road to recover. However, he made 16 starts in 2017, and was nothing short of impressive. With Fort Myers, he posted a 2.69 ERA and struck out 9.8 batters per nine. Walks have been a concern both in Cedar Rapids, and in the Florida State League, but an acclimation period is to be expected. If he can settle in to start 2018, he may be less than two years away, and should be a dependable lefty on the bump.
 
11. Blayne Enlow SP
 
Enlow was taken in the 3rd round of the 2017 MLB Draft, yet has true first round talent. Pitching at 18 right out of high school, he owned a 1.33 ERA across 20.1 IP in the GCL. His advanced command was nice to see, and there wasn't a time that he took the mound where it wasn't can't miss baseball. Although high school pitchers have a rough track record to go against, Enlow has all the makings of a special talent.
 
10. Travis Blankenhorn
 
After getting to Cedar Rapids a year ago, Blankenhorn spent the entirety of the 2017 season there. His average dropped off some, but the on-base percentage held strong. His .784 OPS was still more than respectable, and following up the 10 homers in 2016 with 13 in 2017 was nice to see. I'm not sure if he'll end up sticking more at second or third going forward, but he's a kid that's continued to come into his own.
 
9. Tyler Jay
 
Taken 6th overall in the 2015 draft, the road through the minors has been anything but smooth for Jay. Dealing with injuries, and shifting roles, he finally looks on track for the 2018 season. He recorded just 11.2 IP a year ago, but was able to get in 9.2 IP of work during the Arizona Fall League. The new front office hasn't yet ruled out using him as a starter, but I think he's best suited in the pen. He could slot into a future closer role, and the strikeout stuff is definitely there. If he's healthy, I'd imagine Minnesota may be able to call on him midway through 2018.
 
8 Alex Kirilloff
 
Thanks to Tommy John surgery, Kirilloff sat out the entirety of the 2017 season. Obviously for a position player, the surgery is much less of an issue. He put up a solid .794 OPS in his debut season with Elizabethton, and should be expected to pick up where he left off. It remains to be seen if Kirilloff can stay in the outfield, but if the bat plays, the Twins will no doubt find a place for it.
 
7. Felix Jorge SP
 
The good thing was that Jorge got a test of the big leagues in 2017. The bad thing was how those 7.2 IP went (10.57 ERA). Not to worry, I don't think that's indicative of the young starter's future. Still with just three starts at Triple-A under his belt, Jorge has time for growth. He should start 2018 with Rochester, and as he finds his command there, should make his way back to the Twins rotation. He's more of a pitch-to-contact type, but he keeps the ball in the yard and profiles as a nice back-end starting option.
 
6. Brent Rooker OF
 
Looking at how they've started out, I'm not sure it's possible for me to like the top of the 2017 Twins draft class any more than I already do. Rooker is the lone bat of the group, and he's an incredibly good one. After destroying the SEC in his final year, he made both the Appalachian and Florida State Leagues look easy. Minnesota could be aggressive and start him at Double-A in 2018, which I would hope for, and we may even see him in Twins Territory by season's end.
 
5. Wander Javier SS
 
The first of three top five shortstop prospects for the Twins, Javier just continues to gain steam. I walked away from watching him live during spring training in awe, and think he has a chance to be special. Playing his first season stateside, Javier owned an .855 OPS with Elizabethton. As he continues to fill out, there will be more power to come, but he's a true gap hitter with what seems like a decent chance to stick at short.
 
4. Nick Gordon SS
 
Creeping towards top-50 prospect status in all of baseball, Gordon had somewhat of a disappointing season. The .749 OPS was a career high, but there's questions as to whether or not he can stick at shortstop. The hope is that either the bat or the glove will pick up significantly and start to point towards what type of big leaguer he may be. At just 22, the Twins still have some time but it would be great to see Gordon have a breakout 2018.
 
3. Fernando Romero SP
 
Having arguably the best chance at turning into a potential ace among all Twins pitching prospects, Romero had another solid season in 2017. Making his Double-A debut, he started 23 games and pitched a career high 125.0 innings. His walk rate did spike a bit, but the strikeout numbers held strong. He has upper 90's velocity, and has shown strong pitchability thus far throughout the minors. There's probably an outside chance we see him with the Twins, at least briefly, at some point in 2018.
 
2. Stephen Gonsalves SP
 
Cracking Top 100 prospect lists for the first time prior to last season, Gonsalves is finally starting to get some of the national recognition he deserves. The lefty isn't flashy, but he's ridiculously consistent, and he's very good. His 2.68 ERA and 9.9 K/9 followed up a strong 2016 showing, and he made his Triple-A debut this past year. Aside from one start, he excelled at the highest minor league level (3 starts), and his overall command was sharpened a year ago. Expect him to slot in for the Twins at some point in the upcoming campaign.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
Selected as the first overall pick in the 2017 draft, Lewis has been exceptional in his brief time as a pro. Making quick work of the GCL, he was promoted to Cedar Rapids for their playoff run. Despite being just 18 years old, he owned a .757 OPS and batted .296 in a league he was over three years younger than the average. He should easily be a top 50 prospect in all of baseball heading into 2018, and there's a case to be made that he is ranked within the top 25-30. We're still a few years away from seeing him with Minnesota, but early indications suggest Lewis is worth the price of admission.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine consummated trades with both the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels, they made much of absolutely nothing. Sending $1 million worth of International Bonus Pool space to both teams, the Twins got two legitimate prospects in return. Knowing that Bonus Pool is really not cash at all, makes the move even more shrewd.
 
Going into the offseason, the Twins had the third largest International Bonus pool to offer Shohei Ohtani or any other international free agent they wanted to grab. Once Ohtani let them know they weren't going to make his final cut, the club has significantly more clarity as to what they should use that flexibility for. International Bonus Pools really aren't money in terms of actual cash, but instead a threshold of what you can offer to players. With no one making the Twins jump, Falvey and Levine preyed on two teams still in the running for the assumed Japanese superstar.
 
Obviously there is only one Ohtani, so both the Mariners and Angels aren't going to end up with him. Each felt the additional spending flexibility would increase their chances however, and they parted with legitimate pieces to obtain that. The Angels gave up 2017 3rd round pick Jacob Pearson, while the Mariners parted with 5th round pick David Banuelos. For the Twins, two legitimate prospects looks a lot better than inanimate money destined for nowhere.
 
While the Angels farm system is notably weak, Pearson was their 5th overall prospect. MLB Pipeline slots him in at 22 for Minnesota, and I'd suggested he'd be 15th on my list. Banuelos would be outside the top 15, but I suggested I'd have him 18th behind LaMonte Wade and Akil Baddoo. Both players also fill a significant need on the farm, with Pearson able to play CF and Banuelos being an legitimate catcher.
 
Going forward, both players are going to take time to develop. Pearson is a high schooler from Louisiana that was headed to play on the same LSU team as (now teammate) Blayne Enlow. Banuelos is just 21 and also has less than a year of pro ball under his belt. The expectation from Pearson is that there should be some speed and a little pop in his bat, while Banuelos is seen as a strong receiver with very good pop times. Many of the Twins prospect outfield types are on the corners, and behind the dish, it's really just Ben Rortvedt.
 
We won't know how the narrative of these two players works out for at least the next couple of years, but right now, the process was executed flawlessly. Minnesota tried their hand at landing Ohtani, and when they couldn't, they preyed on those teams still in the running, They now have eight players taken in the first five rounds of the 2017 MLB draft, and adding talent to an organization is always a good practice.
 
The organization should have something like $1.2 million left in International Bonus spending space, and that should be enough to lure former signee Jelfry Marte if the club is still interested (per Darren Wolfson). There's no telling what Minnesota does with the rest of their allotment, and they may choose to do nothing at all. Right now though, we know that the move they made was an exceptional one.
 
Oh, and too bad to Seattle or Los Angeles, whichever one of of you doesn't land Ohtani and dealt on false hope.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As the Major League Baseball offseason trudges on, and the Winter Meetings soon commence, it's time to take a look at what the Minnesota Twins have on the farm. Over the past few years, the Twins have drafted higher in the draft, allowing them to stockpile talent replacing those who have graduated. Although the current class isn't headlined by a Byron Buxton, it's overall level is impressive.
 
Here at Off The Baggy, this will now be my third annual Top 15 Twins Prospect list. You can find 2016 here, and 2017 here. Many of those names are now on the big league club, and a few have moved on to other organizations. Prepping us for the season ahead, here's how I see the next wave of future Twins greats.
 
15. LaMonte Wade OF
 
A 9th round selection in the 2015 MLB Draft, Wade has continued to impress at each stop for the Twins. He ripped off an .805 OPS across 117 games at Double-A Chattanooga this year, and the seven home runs continue to suggest there's a bit of pop in his bat. Wade makes a ton of contact, and has walked more than he's struck out at each level. He may not have an All-Star ceiling, but being a nice rotational outfielder seems like a good bet.
 
14. Zack Littell SP
 
Brought into the organization through the Jaime Garcia deal with the Yankees, Littell provides an immediate boost to a club looking for pitching. He was lights out in the Eastern League, and continued to roll with Chattanooga. His strikeouts and walks both went in suboptimal directions following the trade, but it was a small seven game sample size. He has real strikeout ability, and should be a capable middle-of-the-rotation starter for Minnesota as early as 2018.
 
13. Brusdar Graterol SP
 
If there's an arm on the farm capable of challenging Fernando Romero's velocity, it's probably Greterol's. Just 19, he fared well in both the GCL and Appy League's this past season. With a big velocity fastball, and some solid secondary offerings, he's had no problem mowing down hitters at the lower level. He'll need to hone in command as he works on promotions, but the electric stuff makes him among the most intriguing Twins prospects in the system.
 
12. Lewis Thorpe SP
 
Returning to the mound following Tommy John surgery, Thorpe had a long road to recover. However, he made 16 starts in 2017, and was nothing short of impressive. With Fort Myers, he posted a 2.69 ERA and struck out 9.8 batters per nine. Walks have been a concern both in Cedar Rapids, and in the Florida State League, but an acclimation period is to be expected. If he can settle in to start 2018, he may be less than two years away, and should be a dependable lefty on the bump.
 
11. Blayne Enlow SP
 
Enlow was taken in the 3rd round of the 2017 MLB Draft, yet has true first round talent. Pitching at 18 right out of high school, he owned a 1.33 ERA across 20.1 IP in the GCL. His advanced command was nice to see, and there wasn't a time that he took the mound where it wasn't can't miss baseball. Although high school pitchers have a rough track record to go against, Enlow has all the makings of a special talent.
 
10. Travis Blankenhorn
 
After getting to Cedar Rapids a year ago, Blankenhorn spent the entirety of the 2017 season there. His average dropped off some, but the on-base percentage held strong. His .784 OPS was still more than respectable, and following up the 10 homers in 2016 with 13 in 2017 was nice to see. I'm not sure if he'll end up sticking more at second or third going forward, but he's a kid that's continued to come into his own.
 
9. Tyler Jay
 
Taken 6th overall in the 2015 draft, the road through the minors has been anything but smooth for Jay. Dealing with injuries, and shifting roles, he finally looks on track for the 2018 season. He recorded just 11.2 IP a year ago, but was able to get in 9.2 IP of work during the Arizona Fall League. The new front office hasn't yet ruled out using him as a starter, but I think he's best suited in the pen. He could slot into a future closer role, and the strikeout stuff is definitely there. If he's healthy, I'd imagine Minnesota may be able to call on him midway through 2018.
 
8 Alex Kirilloff
 
Thanks to Tommy John surgery, Kirilloff sat out the entirety of the 2017 season. Obviously for a position player, the surgery is much less of an issue. He put up a solid .794 OPS in his debut season with Elizabethton, and should be expected to pick up where he left off. It remains to be seen if Kirilloff can stay in the outfield, but if the bat plays, the Twins will no doubt find a place for it.
 
7. Felix Jorge SP
 
The good thing was that Jorge got a test of the big leagues in 2017. The bad thing was how those 7.2 IP went (10.57 ERA). Not to worry, I don't think that's indicative of the young starter's future. Still with just three starts at Triple-A under his belt, Jorge has time for growth. He should start 2018 with Rochester, and as he finds his command there, should make his way back to the Twins rotation. He's more of a pitch-to-contact type, but he keeps the ball in the yard and profiles as a nice back-end starting option.
 
6. Brent Rooker OF
 
Looking at how they've started out, I'm not sure it's possible for me to like the top of the 2017 Twins draft class any more than I already do. Rooker is the lone bat of the group, and he's an incredibly good one. After destroying the SEC in his final year, he made both the Appalachian and Florida State Leagues look easy. Minnesota could be aggressive and start him at Double-A in 2018, which I would hope for, and we may even see him in Twins Territory by season's end.
 
5. Wander Javier SS
 
The first of three top five shortstop prospects for the Twins, Javier just continues to gain steam. I walked away from watching him live during spring training in awe, and think he has a chance to be special. Playing his first season stateside, Javier owned an .855 OPS with Elizabethton. As he continues to fill out, there will be more power to come, but he's a true gap hitter with what seems like a decent chance to stick at short.
 
4. Nick Gordon SS
 
Creeping towards top-50 prospect status in all of baseball, Gordon had somewhat of a disappointing season. The .749 OPS was a career high, but there's questions as to whether or not he can stick at shortstop. The hope is that either the bat or the glove will pick up significantly and start to point towards what type of big leaguer he may be. At just 22, the Twins still have some time but it would be great to see Gordon have a breakout 2018.
 
3. Fernando Romero SP
 
Having arguably the best chance at turning into a potential ace among all Twins pitching prospects, Romero had another solid season in 2017. Making his Double-A debut, he started 23 games and pitched a career high 125.0 innings. His walk rate did spike a bit, but the strikeout numbers held strong. He has upper 90's velocity, and has shown strong pitchability thus far throughout the minors. There's probably an outside chance we see him with the Twins, at least briefly, at some point in 2018.
 
2. Stephen Gonsalves SP
 
Cracking Top 100 prospect lists for the first time prior to last season, Gonsalves is finally starting to get some of the national recognition he deserves. The lefty isn't flashy, but he's ridiculously consistent, and he's very good. His 2.68 ERA and 9.9 K/9 followed up a strong 2016 showing, and he made his Triple-A debut this past year. Aside from one start, he excelled at the highest minor league level (3 starts), and his overall command was sharpened a year ago. Expect him to slot in for the Twins at some point in the upcoming campaign.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
Selected as the first overall pick in the 2017 draft, Lewis has been exceptional in his brief time as a pro. Making quick work of the GCL, he was promoted to Cedar Rapids for their playoff run. Despite being just 18 years old, he owned a .757 OPS and batted .296 in a league he was over three years younger than the average. He should easily be a top 50 prospect in all of baseball heading into 2018, and there's a case to be made that he is ranked within the top 25-30. We're still a few years away from seeing him with Minnesota, but early indications suggest Lewis is worth the price of admission.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine consummated trades with both the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels, they made much of absolutely nothing. Sending $1 million worth of International Bonus Pool space to both teams, the Twins got two legitimate prospects in return. Knowing that Bonus Pool is really not cash at all, makes the move even more shrewd.
 
Going into the offseason, the Twins had the third largest International Bonus pool to offer Shohei Ohtani or any other international free agent they wanted to grab. Once Ohtani let them know they weren't going to make his final cut, the club has significantly more clarity as to what they should use that flexibility for. International Bonus Pools really aren't money in terms of actual cash, but instead a threshold of what you can offer to players. With no one making the Twins jump, Falvey and Levine preyed on two teams still in the running for the assumed Japanese superstar.
 
Obviously there is only one Ohtani, so both the Mariners and Angels aren't going to end up with him. Each felt the additional spending flexibility would increase their chances however, and they parted with legitimate pieces to obtain that. The Angels gave up 2017 3rd round pick Jacob Pearson, while the Mariners parted with 5th round pick David Banuelos. For the Twins, two legitimate prospects looks a lot better than inanimate money destined for nowhere.
 
While the Angels farm system is notably weak, Pearson was their 5th overall prospect. MLB Pipeline slots him in at 22 for Minnesota, and I'd suggested he'd be 15th on my list. Banuelos would be outside the top 15, but I suggested I'd have him 18th behind LaMonte Wade and Akil Baddoo. Both players also fill a significant need on the farm, with Pearson able to play CF and Banuelos being an legitimate catcher.
 
Going forward, both players are going to take time to develop. Pearson is a high schooler from Louisiana that was headed to play on the same LSU team as (now teammate) Blayne Enlow. Banuelos is just 21 and also has less than a year of pro ball under his belt. The expectation from Pearson is that there should be some speed and a little pop in his bat, while Banuelos is seen as a strong receiver with very good pop times. Many of the Twins prospect outfield types are on the corners, and behind the dish, it's really just Ben Rortvedt.
 
We won't know how the narrative of these two players works out for at least the next couple of years, but right now, the process was executed flawlessly. Minnesota tried their hand at landing Ohtani, and when they couldn't, they preyed on those teams still in the running, They now have eight players taken in the first five rounds of the 2017 MLB draft, and adding talent to an organization is always a good practice.
 
The organization should have something like $1.2 million left in International Bonus spending space, and that should be enough to lure former signee Jelfry Marte if the club is still interested (per Darren Wolfson). There's no telling what Minnesota does with the rest of their allotment, and they may choose to do nothing at all. Right now though, we know that the move they made was an exceptional one.
 
Oh, and too bad to Seattle or Los Angeles, whichever one of of you doesn't land Ohtani and dealt on false hope.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz