GMinTraining

Never said ABW was worth a lot in trade. Hell - If Ortiz can be let go (not traded) and Johan Santana can be a rule 5 pick up, who's to say worth? End of career results will be the story as always. I'm sure Palka is glad he got traded. He jumped from a 25-30 ranked prospect in a weaker system (AZ) to a probable top 10-15 prospect in more highly regarded system (MN). That's his reality. Worth is eventually about staying on some teams 40 man and getting paid!

Don't call him up until Mid August or September and see what you might have. It's not like he is going to be the reason the Twins are losing this year. What do you have to lose? Will the power play? Would love to know and stop speculating. Even in a small sample size.

ABW has 20 of his 34 XBH's on off speed pitches this year. Dozier leads the Twins with the same number of XBH's (34)? You can't lead your league for 3 straight full seasons in Total Bases and Extra Base Hits and be considered a HR or nothing type player. Don't doubles and triples count? Why are his 100+ minor league doubles excluded from conversations? Defintely more than a HR player - Complete power in his game along with those strikeouts. To overlook complete package is crazy.

My favorite prospect even if he isn't the best prospect. And for the record - I didn't put him on the 40 man. The Twins did. I posted an article solely about Walker just now. No shame here.

The Baseballist: Mining For Power Prospects Around The Diamond Baseball America Article Scouts don’t rely on the number in the “home runs” column when grading a young player’s raw power—and neither should fantasy owners. Instead, scouts study hitters in batting practice to see (and hear) how the ball comes off his bat. They also consider the quality and frequency of a batter’s hard contact in games. So to some extent, the outs a batter consumes when not going deep, or what he does when not putting the ball in play, are irrelevant to his raw-power evaluation. This particularly holds for talented young players who are not yet fully developed hitters. For this reason, the long-standing fantasy baseball resource Baseball HQ evaluates power using a metric they call linear-weighted power (LwPwr), which measures the quality of a batter’s extra-base production per ball in play. (Read all about it here.) Using the LwPwr formula, doubles and triples are weighted at 0.8, while home runs are weighted at 1.4, and the sum of those values is then divided by a batter’s at-bats (minus) strikeouts. This ignores what a batter does while not putting the ball in play, so you must factor his strikeout and walk rates separately. One can then scale this LwPWr value to the league average to determine what Baseball HQ calls linear-weighted power index (PX), which is what I have used in this piece to rank prospects at each position. Think of PX as a power ceiling for each player, because as noted, strikeouts are not counted against him. Adding one further wrinkle to the PX formula, I adjusted it for the home-run park factor for each player. This step is important, because minor league parks feature radically different home-run conditions. The end result of this calculation is the number found in the PX column throughout. Keep in mind that because PX is an index, a value of 100 is average, while those who score at 150 would be 50 percent better than league average(s). http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/baseballist-mining-power-prospects-around-diamond/#gJLOest84dhmybYa.97 The Top Players based on PX Index formula (MLB & MiLB) in 2015: [100 PX is avg.] MLB - M. Stanton - 280 MiLB - AB Walker - 273 (39 points higher than next minor leaguer) MiLB - Bobby Bradley - 238 MLB - R. Grichuk - 225 MLB - B. Harper - 212 MLB - M. Sano - 210 MLB - M. Trout - 192 MLB - P. Goldschmidt - 191 MLB - JD Martinez - 190 A repeat of AAA for ABW in 2017 will give a much better indication of future potential. Stanton hit a max of 22 HRs in his first round of the 2016 HR Derby. He had 4 and a half minutes to complete this task. ABW competed in the same timed HR derby format in 2014 (Florida State League) and had only 3 minutes with no timeouts. ABW had a score of 36 in the finals. ABW's HRs are epic as are his SO's, but his upside is off the charts. Not Ready But Worth the Wait

As the Twins have struggled in recent years, we fans often want results faster than they sometimes are ready. Many of the players in our system still have high upside and shouldn't be cast aside so quickly. Consider this - The following players had the bulb go off late in their careers and were able to have productive careers: *Jake Arrieta jumped on the map @ age 27 *Jose Bautista jumped on the map @ age 28 *Kevin Millar jumped on the map @ age 28 *Latroy Hawkins jumped on the map @ age 28 *Dave Stewart jumped on the map @ age 30 *Cliff Lee jumped on the map @ age 28 *David Ortiz jumped on the map @ age 27 *Jason Werth jumped on the map @ age 28 *Nelson Cruz jumped on the map @ age 28 *Jackie Bradley Jr. jumped on the map @ age 26 PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE Players Worth the Wait *Alex Meyers has a chance to be special based on tools alone @ 26 *Byron Buxton is 22 years old and people are judging his fate already *Kennys Vargas is a switch hitting power hitter and only 25 *Oswaldo Arcia has shown the ability and lost his way at 25. We balked *Adam Brett Walker had 2nd highest PX in baseball in 2015 (MiLB & MLB) *Eduardo Escobar was a doubles machine and is only 27 *Eduardo Nunez became an All Star when given a chance @ 29 *Travis Harrison @ 23 *Stuart Turner @ 24 I understand that we need to let players go as part of business decisions in the sport, but we as fans should stop being so angry that players aren't progressing as quickly as we want. I believe we need to stop looking for the fast track prospect and realize who we are and where we are as a franchise. We are a franchise that has to be completely patient and hold on to everybody for as long as we can. We don't draw the big free agent based on weather and other factors. Free agent finds and late bloomers are the key to a winning resurrection. Sano; Kepler and Buxton are our future, but understand, we will need those upside prospects and players for any chance of long term success.

The Formula for Success? Despite the slow start for JR Murphy (.204 BA), he is hitting .348 with RISP. Despite the slow start for ABW (130 SO), he has the highest BA on the Rochester team when leading off an inning [66 times] (.318) and the highest BA late in games or in close games [39 times] (.359). Daniel Palka is having a career year as he hits .337 when ahead in the count and .167 when behind [smart man]. Jorge Polanco has always been a great top of the order hitter [low .300's BA], and one of the best hitters in the Twins minor league system, but is still in AAA because........... Chargois has a higher ERA (2.00) when he is ahead in the count, but a lower BA against (.125 BA). However, Chargois sports a lower ERA (1.35) when he is behind in the count, but teams hit for a (.296 BA). CRAZY! The Red Wings have 4 lefties in their rotation in which 2 throw maybe 92 MPH and 2 throw max 88 MPH, but were able to have their starting pitchers get into the 5th inning or longer for 52 consecutive games. CRAZY! Vargas hit only .235 in AAA this year but was phenomenal in leading the league in BB and RBI while in Rochester despite hitting only .229 with RISP. Now he is performing better at the MLB level as Sano did last year. Max Kepler is only hitting .216 BA over his last 10 games, but we are all in love with him (me included) because of his timely hitting during that stretch (5 HRs+). Who can explain the true formula for success? "We all like what we like, when we want to like it" - Profound What is your formula for Twins success and/or show me a formula that has worked in your lifetime? What is the proof for your formula?

Send Santana to Dodgers for Chris Anderson (1st rounder and MN native)

The Red Wings might be exciting to watch this second half with the promotions of Park (when healthy) and Palka. Palka already took AAA by storm with his debut. I like many think Palka should have been promoted to AAA. His numbers [ of 21 HRs / 65 RBI / .270 BA / .348 OBP / .548 SLG] are note worthy. Despite his Southern League leading 100 strikeouts as of July 5th, his production was too good to deny. AB Walker with the addition of Palka and Park could provide for some serious mid summer fireworks, IMO Palka and Walker are very similar. Walker had numbers [of 23 HRs / 68 RBI / .271 BA / .328 OBP / .604 SLG] while in Southern League as of July 5, 2015. Both players had almost identical numbers in Southern League, while Palka (100 K's) and Walker (113 K's) both led the league respectively in this category. While I wanted Walker to have the promotion last year, I am happy Palka is getting his chance to experience AAA mid season. The Red Wings could become the Chicago Cubs version of AAA - High K's and Explosive Bats. Might not be a formula for playoff baseball, but many teams have experienced regular season success with this model. Better go get your MiLBTV subscription.

I'm trading a Santana and a C / C+ prospect for a B/B+ prospect that can help us within a year or two. Look what the Braves got for Shelby Miller. I want just 1 top prospect for my 2 players. Or I'm trading now for the 2017 success and obtaining Lucroy. I would make my 40 man concerns easier by getting rid of guys with option concerns like Polanco; Meyer; Vargas and throw in Zach Jones and Turner. You are going to have to make decisions on all these guys anyway in a few months. Trade them and get a big return. Maybe you get your Will Smith as a bonus from their end.

With the trade deadline approaching - What prospects do we have that would be good "Throw In" pieces to go along with Santana, Nolasco, etc.? Who is worth departing with, and who isn't? What trade value makes a "Throw In" prospects truly beneficial in the short / long term? What do you people truly hope to find in a trade that is worth the move? ............................

1) RH SP Jose Berrios 2) RH RP Nick Burdi (flip a coin w/ health) 3) OF Byron Buxton 4) RH RP JT Chargois 5) OF Max Kepler 6) OF Eddie Rosario 7) RH RP Trevor May 8) 2B Jorge Polanco (best defender and hitter at 2B) 9) 3B Miguel Sano 10) RH RP Tyler Duffey 11) SS Nick Gordon 12) LH SP Stephen Gonsalves 13) LH SP Tyler Jay 14) SS Eduardo Nunez (he's been good for both years we had him) 15) RH RP Trevor Hildenberger (just gets it done) Nobody is going to take Mauer's contract anyway despite the fact that he still has some gas in his tank. Nunez personality and free spirit will become infectious with young core. Dozier is holding back a better potential player in Polanco IMO. Polanco never should have been experimented at SS. He has always been a GREAT second baseman defensively and consistent hitter (11 doubles / 6 triples / 5 HRs - in AAA). Second guessing myself on Rogers; Pressley; and Gibson only.

He is arguably the best defender on the club right now. It's his decisions once he gets the ball that plague him with coaches. He wants to throw out everybody. And damn near can - Lol

I'd like to see: SS Nunez (29) 2B Polanco (22) 3B Sano (23) LF Rosario (24) 1B Mauer (33) DH Walker (24) RF Kepler (23) C Centeno (26) CF Buxton (22) Bench - Beresford (27) / Escobar (27) / Murphy (25) / Vargas (25) SP - May, Gibson, Berios, Duffey, Wheeler RP - Kintzler, Tonkin, Pressley, Rogers, Chargois, Milone, Wimmer Traded: E. Santana; Grossman; Abad; Plouffe; Dozier; Susuki; D.Santana; Nolasco; DL: Hughes; Meyer; season ending Let the young guys lead and play as they have in Chattanooga and Rochester. Let Molitor be their organizer and manager and let the young guys go go go. Guarantee they feed off of each other and grow without the pressure of failing the veterans. Your future leader is a combination of the young guys and not Dozier and Mauer. Those two are key to the game but not to leadership. 8 of these 13 position players are 25 and under. That is our best option for long term success. If you can get a star in free agency great. History tells us otherwise though! You're talking Minnesota, where you have snow outs. Lol

Buxton has played his best ball when Walker was in the outfield with him. Haha Just joking but true. Did you know that Walker is the 3rd youngest player on the Rochester roster, behind only Berrios and Polanco? August call up. I know the K's are still bad - but 27 BB would be fourth on the Twins right now and he is still on pace for 28 HRs in AAA. Cup of Coffee won't change things much for the Twins - Lol

The question becomes - Besides spending 200 million on salary for free agents - What line up did you come up with this spring training that would have worked out better for the Twins? I'm sure all these posters had their imaginary line up. What makes your line up so much better than Ryan's and would you have been firing yourself about now if you followed your plan? Arcia deserved as much opportunity as Park IMO. He was doomed for failure when his playing time decreased. It's not like others were tearing the cover of the ball. This crowd is just rough. Be honest and tell how well your arm chair advice would have turned out - Lol

Kepler is a future Corey Hart in his prime, but with better contact. Not flashy defensively, but sound and All Star potential.

Obviously - you haven't seen him either. He can play the outfield fine. He covers ground and is coordinated when he leaves his feet. His throwing had to improve and it has this season. Mechanics not arm strength were his problems. According to Seth as well. - And although his contact issues continue, he manages to still lead his AAA league in HRs (14) somehow for his 1st place ball club [1/2 way point of season]. 6 teams in 5 years and all have been in first place. No correlation I know, Just saying............ Lol I'm making him my 4th outfielder next year just because his flawed ass is a lucky charm. Haha

Walker does Walk about 40 to 50 times a year. That isn't his problem. His contact rate is what fails him. Most of the time I hear scouts say "too much movement in their load, while trying to swing" as a cause for poor contact hitters (not quiet). Maybe that is the case with some of our hitters. Can't see the ball if your moving too much while you're swinging. Staying quiet is the biggest key to pitch recognition - IMO. It can't be that all our guys just can't recognize pitches. Here is my problem with AAA as a building block for the MLB. The Rochester rotation has 3 of the 5 starters who throw 88 to 90 tops on their fastball. Our guys learn to adjust to the junk throwing pitchers and then have to go to the MLB where they throw 95+ with junk. That adjustment s a whole different story. AAA doesn't prepare you for that. AT ALL. Maybe against that stud (#1) pitcher in every teams rotation. Guys like Kepler and Buxton need to take their lumps in the MLB as well if they plan to understand MLB adjustments.

Better athlete than advertised IMO - Not to mention that he was an All American 1st baseman in college. He has something to work with defensively IMO. [AAA REPS] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL_hYvi0BJQrSZqbsG3NRtSRWjgtVm7ONo

Walker did have 19 home runs and 59 rbi by All Star break (June 21st) of last year. He also had 23 home runs and 67 rbi by the end of June last year in AA. Similar averages and K rates at this point in season as well for AA. Walker had major struggles in second half despite leading AA in HRs and RBI. No argument. Walker was also 23 in AA last year. Palka is 24. Those two are only 1 month apart in age. There is time for both of them to improve in weak areas. I wonder what Walker would have done last year if he hit 3rd in order behind Buxton, Polanco and ahead of Sano. Maybe same thing, but I would have loved to have seen that. The only year he hit behind those 2, he had a 20% K rate that season. He since, has NEVER had the luxury of driving in Buxton or Polanco. By the time Walker would get up in the 7th spot, those 2 would have scored already or there was 3 outs already. This year he bats 8th and still ranks accordingly on team: HRs - 1st Total Bases - 1st Extra Base Hits - 1st RBI - 2nd Runs Scored - 2nd Base on Balls - 3rd (highest walk rate of career) It is Crazy how his team rankings stay so consistent yearly regardless to team in which he plays. - Lots of work to do and I'm glad he will get a chance to repeat AAA next year, Then and only then will I write him off. [23HRs and 67RBI by July 1st from the 7th spot last year ain't bad] (Lol)

AB Walker is a strange prospect. He has definitely performed worse in terms of contact. However, he is still 2nd on his team in RBI; Runs Scored; 3rd on the team in BB and 1st on the team in HRs; XBH; and Total Bases. He is who he is (Lol). His production is not what it was last year, but still among the best on his team in that category. He is also one of the only prospects to reach AAA who has never been previously promoted (in season) or to have repeated a previous level. He obviously needs to repeat AAA, and I would reserve the right to condemn him after that repeat year in AAA. Still leads his AAA league in HRs. Steven Moya made a batting adjustment this year and his average and OBP have gone up 80 points.

Where has Eddie Rosario been? Out last three games?

Since Walker has incorporated the leg kick, he has seen his K rate increase yearly. His K rate in A ball was 20% and has increased greatly each year thereafter. Look at his ABs in A ball (video) and you will see that he didn't have a big leg kick then. He hit the ball to the gaps much more too. His power numbers are relatively the same (mostly). His walk rate (2016) is the highest it has ever been (9.7). He even has a .316 BABIP. Too much movement in his load and swing. They tend to happen at the same time IMO. Watkins had him down to a 20% K rate. Don't send Walker down, but maybe have Watkins work with him via the phone. Look at the rebound year Harrison and Hicks are having in AA. Maybe it is just that they are repeating a level or maybe it is just them having another voice. Both players had career years under Watkins in 2013. Young players should have new voices yearly to work on their game. Especially if they are struggling. Walker has been with Chad Allen (AA - AFL - & AAA). His 3 worse K rate seasons. Chad is an excellent coach and did wonders for Kepler, but maybe there is a disconnect with Walker. Time to hear a new approach? I think it was Showalter who said - "Either you are allowing it or teaching it" as it pertains to performance.

Brett Lee was released a month ago and plays for Brewers and Swim retired I thought I read.