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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    Sorry, Cooper. You are missing an important part of the Fangraphs WAR, especially for the infield. Fangraphs has players at multiple positions. For example, Arraez has a forecasted WAR of 1.9 at 2B, but they also have him for 0.7 WAR at 3B and 0.2 WAR at SS for 2.9 WAR total. Same issue for Polanco. He's predicted to play 2B 23% of the time. His total predicted WAR is 2.6. When all the data is combined, the Twins are predicted to be about 1 game behind the White Sox. The same info is shown in this Table. Scroll down to the "All Batters" table. A summary comparison of all teams is found here.
  2. dbminn
    I'm lucky enough to be able to afford traditional cable. I'll be watching them. Although, why am I saying this? Buy enough boutique options and you're back with the same bill you always had.
  3. dbminn
    Would you trade Buxton for Jeffers, Garver or Polanco? I would not. Arraez is also too low. I wouldn't trade him for Larnach at this point. I like Larnach as a prospect but he's not on the same level as a proven 3 WAR player with five years of control. At an IF position, no less. I'd put Arraez above the two catchers too, because the Twins have two good catchers! Love the series, Nick.
  4. dbminn
    Nicely done, Rena
  5. dbminn
    Celestino will be in CF, Lewis at 3B and... Wander Javier will have a great 2021, continue his rise in 2022, and be the starting SS by 2023! How's that for outlandish optimism?
  6. dbminn
    The Good: I love watching Darvish pitch. He has the stuff to last into his late 30s. He could be an ace in 2021.The Bad: He will cost a couple of very good prospects. He's 34, has an injury history and a big salary obligation.I'd rather sign Odorizzi and one of Hernandez/Profar/Galvis. A similar price without trading any prospects. Shorter contracts too.
  7. dbminn
    Nice article, Ted. I still think Buxton is the #1 player necessary for a successful season. Donaldson is #2. It's close.
  8. dbminn
    Second on my list are the utility players. Marwin (.606 OPS) and Adrianza (.557) had a terrible 2020. They were around .750 in 2019, with about the same percentage of team PAs. The Twins have had a lot of injuries the past couple of years. They need at least one utility player that can hit at league average.
  9. dbminn
    The White Sox have a lineup dominated by right-handed bats. The Astros have lost 3 OF to free agency and have one remaining starter (Kyle Tucker). IMO, they both will pursue Brantley but one team may end up with Eddie. Detroit and Miami are definitely options too.
  10. dbminn
    Jhoan Duran says, "Mike, hold my beer". And yes, we should extend Berrios.
  11. dbminn
    For me, this is not the greatest comparison. Jacques Jones was 31 when he finished his time with the Twins. His final two seasons, 2004 and 2005, Jones produced a combined 0.3 WAR. Eddie was at the full-season equivalent of 2.5 WAR last year.
  12. dbminn
    IMO, Rijo should be protected. Too much talent to lose. Rortvedt would be the other keeper for me. I think both will be selected if they're left off the roster.
  13. dbminn
    You make a convincing argument, Nick. I have just a couple of differences. Buy out Romo - I'd rather sign May to a 2-yr deal, if possible.I'm not a Smyly fan. I'd rather have Dobnak, Duran and others compete for that rotation spot. The Smyly money might be needed for the 4th SP. IMO, Odo will get more than $12M/yr (who knows, with covid). My 2nd option, Stroman, will certainly get a bit more.
  14. dbminn
    This season looks different so far. All 5 Dodgers SP are homegrown. With Hamels out, all 4 Atlanta SP as well. With Verlander out, Houston has 4 and Greinke. Tampa is 2/2. In other trivia, the Padres starting lineup had no drafted position players.
  15. dbminn
    My thoughts, which the Twins FO will ignore. They never return my calls. Rosario will likely not be back because they have three prospects ready for the position (Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach). In a normal offseason, Rosario would have a bit of trade value. A 2.5 WAR OF for $10M is a pretty good deal. With Covid, he'll probably just be released.Cruz is a difficult decision. It will probably depend on the magnitude of competing offers.How do we know Jeffers is ultimately better than Garver? Garver has proven, when healthy, he can be very good through an entire season. Besides, it costs very little to keep the two of them and Garver's trade value is at a minimum right now.Polanco won't be traded this offseason. If he's traded, the FO will have to sign another middle IF. They aren't going to get anyone near Polanco's caliber for a comparable salary.Lewis is the only legit middle infield prospect in the high minors and he hasn't had a chance to prove he's ready for the majors. Arraez and Polanco ended the season with nagging injuries. Plenty of room for all three when Lewis is ready,Sano has the most trade potential. Other teams will be interested because of his upside and the Twins have 1B options in Kirilloff and Rooker. This would work if Cruz is signed. I'm not saying the Twins need to trade him but if the offer is substantial, take it.
  16. dbminn
    The other IF might have chronic injuries as well. Polanco may need surgery on his ankle for the second year in a row. Arraez has tendinitis in a surgically repaired knee. All four could have issues next season. The problem is they have very few IF/CF prospects near MLB ready - Blankenhorn, Lewis and Celestino. The Twins FO doesn't seem to notice. Their minor league system is chock-full of corner OF/1B/DH power hitters... and they keep drafting them!
  17. dbminn
    Plenty of controversy around the edges of the roster. Love it! IMO, the Twins will win or lose because of the core players, especially the pitching staff.
  18. dbminn
    This should do the trick. From Baseball Savant. Scroll down and click on "Jose Berrios", just below "Search Results".
  19. dbminn
    As it sits right now, the first round will be played entirely at the home park of the higher seed. The Twins are 18-5 at home and 9-13 on the road.
  20. dbminn
    Rosario has been the best hitting Twins OF for the past 30 days, at a time the team has struggled to score runs. And you want to phase him out now?
  21. dbminn
    San Diego emptied the drawer full of extra parts. What a steal. A couple players with some potential if you squint hard enough. I thought the Indians would get a high-ranked SP or MI prospect in return for a difference maker.
  22. dbminn
    Thank you, Mike.
  23. dbminn
    Solid job, Ted. I really enjoyed the interview. Great questions for an interesting person.
  24. dbminn
    A fine summary, Tom. Another tough matchup tonight. This series has definitely raised my intensity level about Twins baseball. I'm going to enjoy these games as long as they last.
  25. dbminn
    Depth is crucial to winning in both the regular and post-season. All three of these players are important. IMO, Adrianza is the key reserve. He is the only capable backup SS on the team. Let's not forget Avila either. He's a solid backup catcher.
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