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dxpavelka

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Everything posted by dxpavelka

  1. dxpavelka
    So you're not going to bite on the predictions for this year either. Hell, you didn't even copy that part of my post. Low hanging fruit has been used and now---nothing.
  2. dxpavelka
    You're justifying the use of BABIP because it worked last year. I'm simply asking what's going to happen this year with the low hanging fruit already having been used. Are those crickets I'm hearing?
  3. dxpavelka
    Don't need to be a stat geek or BAPIP disciple to predict that a guy who 43 points higher as a rookie than his MILB career average and had an OPS a hundred points higher than his minor league average would most likely suffer some regression. If somebody wants to prove their genius tell me what he's going to do THIS year. I'm going with a .270 average and an OPS just north of .700.
  4. dxpavelka
    Still calling bull****. NOTHING Santana or any other player does in one year has anything to do with what he does in a subsequent year. Those things may have an impact on how a few stat geeks perceive his chances of success but they have absolutely no bearing on his actual success. Had Santana drawn more walks, struck out fewer times or hit more home runs in 2014, his success rate in 2015 would have had nothing to do with his BABIP and everything to do with the fact that he was a better ball player than he was being given credit for. How would you have explained if he HAD done those things in 2014 but not in 2015?
  5. dxpavelka
    At least the rubes will have something to whine about.
  6. dxpavelka
    " The average BABIP is .300 and the best way to look at it is a measurement of luck or unlucky." Good luck with that. Might as well try to predict what his fortune cookie is going to say. Bottom line is that you CAN'T take walks, strikeouts & home runs out of the equation and even if you could, why the hell would you want to. You might as well tell folks that his batting average in at bats that he gets a single in is 1.000.
  7. dxpavelka
    Danny Santana's 2014 batting average was extremely useful--In 2014. We all forget that last year's performance means exactly jack **** this year.
  8. dxpavelka
    I always chuckle when local fans (not just here) whine about the national guys hating their team. More often than not, the national guys could not care less. It's usually far less about them hating a team and more about them not liking that team as much as the local fans do. News flash people--prove something and the national folks will be gushing all over your team. Until then, just shut up and enjoy the ride.
  9. dxpavelka
    Guess we'll never know...... It's still a mostly useless stat...
  10. dxpavelka
    Couldn't agree more--About the BABIP. Seems like one of those numbers that a whole bunch of folks parrot others on and when it goes the way they think it will they talk a whole lot of smack but if it goes the other way all we hear is crickets.
  11. dxpavelka
    Buxton's the best defensive option and, as such, should be the odds on favorite because of 4 little words: Corner outfielder Miguel Sano.
  12. dxpavelka
    He is after All-Star breaks.
  13. dxpavelka
    And neither of those things would ever happen. Right?
  14. dxpavelka
    Oh no! If he wins a role an infielder might be deprived of outfield at bats.
  15. dxpavelka
    Jake had ABW hit 4th because he's more of a power hitter than an average hitter. Which is exactly why I'd bat Sano 4th instead of 3rd.
  16. dxpavelka
    I don't necessarily disagree. But by the same token, why not 1st or 2nd? Bobby Bragen & Whitey Herzog are the only mangers to even give that a try.
  17. dxpavelka
    Still betting the over. Don't know a pitcher who would even consider pitching to him in a big situation.
  18. dxpavelka
    And yet teams have been winning with that strategy for a hundred years.
  19. dxpavelka
    I get that about Joe. Problem is who IS the producer? Sano's a guy I want to pencil into the 4 spot and not even think about for the next 15 years. Hopefully, somebody else (Buxton?) eventually becomes the guy you do the same with in the 3 spot. That guy is not here yet.
  20. dxpavelka
    Most manager's will want their best average hitter 3rd and best power hitter 4th. The lack of one or the other can affect that strategy.
  21. dxpavelka
    While Bryant is saying hi Anthony Rizzo is batting 3rd and Bryant is in the cleanup spot--a spot where he and Sano should be penciled into for the next 15 years. Meanwhile, Stanton's looking at 200 walks with Justin Bour tentatively manning the cleanup spot in Miami.
  22. dxpavelka
    You can never have enough infielders playing outfield. 2014 worked out so well why not repeat it instead of 2015.
  23. dxpavelka
    Sano strikes out too much to bat 3rd. In spite of the wishes of many rubes Mauer remains in that spot until they acquire/develop another hitter who actually proves he belongs there.
  24. dxpavelka
    So let me paraphrase here: Since video game developers don't think Mike Trout's offense would be affected by catching, Miguel Sano's bat won't be Affected by playing a different position? And you present THAT as evidence. A special kind of......
  25. dxpavelka
    In the end it boils down to would cable customers pay a higher rate so the cable company could pay the FSN or whomever a higher rate. We all want to see more money spent. Just make sure it's somebody else's money
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