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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Then you should be really happy with this week, since it jumpstarted the rebuild by quite a bit. 2-3 starters, 3-4 relievers, and a flexible OBP machine bat goes a long way to making the team better in 2023 (since I believe all of them are at AA or higher). The Twins now have 5 guys with ceilings of Berrios or better (Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Ryan, SWR), and a bunch more of mid-back rotation guys (Ober, Dobnak, Sands, Barnes, Canterino, Varland, Strotman). Starting in 2023, that should be enough to get 2-4 reliable starters; invest in a top of the rotation guy in free agency/trade some of your newly acquired prospect capital, and the rotation can get better in a hurry. Take those 3 guys they just acquired out of the equation, and you're now more likely to get 1-2 reliable starters.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Ummm, the 2022 Twins going deep into the playoffs is not a serious response. It seems ridiculous to say the roster is the same, except the pitching's worse. That's like saying (had he not come back) that the Packers roster is the same, but the quarterbacking is worse. There is no straightforward path to improve the pitching sufficiently in 2022 to seriously compete for a World Series. Alternatively, if Falvine is able to work their magic, and turn Duran, Balazovic, Ryan, Winder, Strotman, etc. into quality big league options, than Berrios is hardly a must, and trading him for additional players and $10M to $12M to put towards another starter is a win.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm quite excited about this! Worth noting he is now rule 5 eligible, so there's a non-zero chance we see him at Target Field before the year is over.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    This has some inherent logic to me, other than I wonder about the risk the FO takes by allowing this--if Shoemaker immediately gets better in AAA, doesn't that potentially undercut the authority of the instruction the Twins' coaching staff is giving? As such, you risk having Winder or Duran start ignoring that, as well as providing a data point supporting bad coaching.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    And my best case scenario is that Jeff Bezos bequeaths his fortune to me, and then I discover a formula for immaculate immortality.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    He accepted his assignment to AAA. I don't know if that's the same as no one else offering him a minor league contract, but I don't think it is. On the GatG podcast, Gleeman spoke about his surprise that Shoemaker accepted the assignment; for a guy whose entire life is baseball, it seems silly that he would be surprised about that because he didn't know it only happened after being rejected by 29 other teams.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    This would be the Eddie Rosario with a sub-.700 OPS, an 84 wRC+, and whose new team traded him away in 4 months? That Eddie? The hurry in trading Berrios is that if you wait to trade him until next year, your best case scenario is 1 top 100 prospect, and your worst case scenario is he needs Tommy John, and you can't even QO him for a comp pick, meaning you get literally nothing.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    1,000,000 fans a year in 81 games is an average of 12,345 a game. From 1971-1984 the average attendance for ALL of MLB was 18,144 a game, or less than 1.5M. Fans go to the games of teams who win games (assuming they're interested in going), rather than teams who lose games but have stars.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Ok Armchair GM; which plausible moves would you have made this offseason that would have been clearly better both now AND before the 2021 season started?
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    A 24 year old whose clock hasn't started striking out 12.6/9 with a 3.60 ERA despite a .347 BABIP in AA has no value? If they fix his walk rate and his batted ball luck neutralizes, that's a pretty valuable piece in the bullpen. Mind you, I'm not saying that WILL happen, I'm just saying the possibility of it happening has value. Also, for what it's worth, I didn't say Falvine is competent, I said this trade proves they're not incompetent--we'd all gladly have taken Gant or Sisk over Happ right? SO to get both for Happ? Seems pretty good to me.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    This is what I never get about the "SpEnD iN FA!!!!!!" crowd. It guarantees nothing, and often produces nothing, yet is universally treated as a surefire way to make the playoffs.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Sweet, disband your entire farm system, and just sign free agents. Then you never have to worry about prospects failing.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Ahh, gotcha. True, if they trade both Maeda and Pineda, there's not a whole lot of experience left to impart!
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    The fact that the Twins were able to turn 38 year old Happ on an expiring deal into a guy who has essentially the same numbers as Happ, but is 28 with another year of control AND a minor leaguer to boot is pretty strong evidence that Falvine aren't incompetent (or that Mike Girsch, GM of the Cardinals, is an absolute disaster).
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Right, that's the point. Why is listening and setting a ridiculous asking price bad? Worst case scenario, you get an idea for how some other teams view Maeda at this point in time--if it turns out the league thinks 2020 was a fluke, that's valuable info. If they think the beginning of 2021 is the fluke, that's valuable too. Best case scenario you get a top 5 prospect who could be a star for years to come. Veterans to mentor the young starting pitchers can be easily obtained in the offseason, particularly when you have $40M or so to play with. Top 5 prospects can't be obtained easily at all in the offseason, no matter how much money you have.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Fair enough. It's certain Berrios would have left for potentially a glorified second-round pick in the most crapshoot draft in all of professional sports, but also potentially nothing. Better?
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Why wouldn't you listen on Maeda? I doubt he gets moved, but if the Padres get panicky, and agree to give you Abrams + something else for Maeda and Rogers, I think you have to do that.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    This is probably true. I imagine that if the Twins make the best offer for him in December 2022, he will be more than happy to rejoin the organization.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    And Martin was the 5th pick last year. Hanging on to Berrios for a year your probably won't be competitive in, in the hopes of recouping a pick in the 31-38 range, as opposed to obtaining two guys who have already made it to AA makes no sense whatsoever. Berrios has no more practical value to the Twins, in terms of the production he offers. None of his remaining ~45 starts in 2021 or 2022 are likely to be for a Twins team on its way to the playoffs. As such, getting the maximum amount of value for him is the only logical course, and suggesting a potential comp pick in early July 2023 (which will not be on anyone's Top 100 list) is preferable to 2 guys in late July 2021 (both of whom are on the majority of Top 100 lists) is just insane.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    There is 0 chance Lewis, who posted an 88 wRC+ in AA in 2019 and will turn 23 next year, will get busted down to A+, unless he is still recovering from an injury. Especially since in his last taste of organized ball, he slashed .353/.411/.565 in the AFL after the 2019 season.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Sure, those are big steps, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect each of those to be taken in a year. Hassell is doing well enough that he'll surely go to A+ next year (short of a dramatic decline in production in the last few weeks of the season). Even if he had to repeat A+, He would still hit AA at 22. If Hassell was matching the production in A, but was 21, or even 20, I'd be inclined to agree. But 3 years younger at this point is just a massive difference.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    For the same reason you continue to acquire pitching prospects, even though you have Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, Ryan, and Strotman.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Nice of you guys to coordinate your analysis for us!
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Works for the Rays.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    This is true. It is certain that Berrios would have left the Twins for nothing after 2022. It is also certain that Berrios is not somehow immune to blowing out his arm on any given pitch.
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