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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    You could argue that in a macro sense, Mike Trout is the least valuable player in baseball. The Angels are currently 63-66; subtract Trout's 8.4 WAR, and that drops to 55-74. In other words, Mike Trout single-handedly drags the Angels to mediocrity, ensuring they don't get access to the premier talent at the top of the draft, or the larger bonus pool needed to get talent in the second and third round. The Angels can't enter a full-scale rebuild, dumping veterans to buttress the farm system, and throwing their own prospects out to see who sticks. Over the past 7 full seasons, the Angels are 584-550 (average of 83-79). Take out Mike Trout's 64.2 WAR, and they're now 520-614 (average of 74-88); to put that in perspective, over the same timeframe, the Twins have been 507-627 (average of 72-90). Further, while there is no other player the Angels could get to replace Mike Trout, his large salary (along with Pujols and Upton), prevent the Angels from getting immediate help. Put another way, Kepler and Polanco have combined for 7.4 WAR this year (88% of Trout), but at 25% of the cost, leaving the Twins $26M free to play with. Is Mike Trout the best player in baseball? Currently there is no doubt that he is, and perhaps the best ever. Is he the most valuable? At least in my opinion, no.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    I don't know that outrage is the right word here. I think annoyance is a better term. If that ball slips a little bit when the pitcher throws it, maybe it hits Kepler in the head. Maybe it hits him in the wrist, breaks a bone, and Kepler is done for the year. Neither of those are implausible, and both would be ridiculous, given that the beaning was in retaliation for a hitter attempting to hit. If the Rangers don't want the Twins to try up 8 in the 9th, then forfeit. Otherwise shut up and play the damn game.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    First 3 runs came against the starter. Next 3 came against two guys who rank 3rd and 4th by FIP and 1st and 4th by xFIP in the Atlanta pen. They also have 87 IP between them, so it's not like it's SSS (at least for relievers). I think it's quite likely the Braves would've handled their pitching largely the same regardless of how many runs they had.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    I put this loss on Rocco. When he sent Berrios out for the 6th inning despite Jose already having allowed 6 hits, 3 walks, and 5 runs, to me Rocco was signalling saving the bullpen was more important than winning the game. If Stashak is given a clean 6th, and Littell a clean 7th, perhaps this game is more like 7-6 or 8-6 going into the 8th.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ This is from April 2016, but it puts the Astros at $60M (top 10), compared to the Twins at $37M (bottom 10) Forbes also put their 2015 revenue at $270M, compared to the Twins at $240M. I'm going to bet the Astros are doing more than that now, while the Twins are about the same.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Dallas is "down the road" from Houston in the same way Hibbing is down the road from Minneapolis. The Astros market also probably includes much of Louisiana, as well as San Antonio, which is the 24th largest metro area on its own. Let's stop pretending Houston is a mid-size market all of the sudden.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    And you know that LEN3 is not in contact with any individual in the Met's organization...how?
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    My wife is a fairly reasonable woman, and understands that sometimes there are excuses, and sometimes there are reasons. I'm fairly confident she would not blame me for rain or getting rear-ended, nor would she have preferred I strand our child at school in order to mow the lawn. Although that being said, as my wife and I are childless and live in an apartment building, this is completely theoretical on my end.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Of course there were questions before the season, but in a season that started with hopes of competing for a wild card. Blaming Falvine for not seeing the best offensive season in baseball history coming seems a little much. If they did think they were going to be on 100 win pace for the entire season, then yes, I would absolutely question their decision to bet everything on Rogers, Hildenberger, and May. I also have no problem with speculation, I have a problem with leveling absolutes based on merely speculation. If people want to speculate Falvine is balking at asking prices, that's one thing. Instead, people are speculating that Falvine aren't really doing anything, other than perhaps leaking some false reports so they don't look bad when they don't make a trade
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    This is an analogy, and therefore these are not little distractions. The faulty spark plug is an injured prospect, the rain is a team not being interested in your prospects, picking the kid up from school is working on a separate deal, and getting rear-ended is another team swooping in and stealing the player you were trying to acquire. None of those are little distractions, and are all things every baseball executive must deal with. Demanding something get done despite insurmountable obstacles is a good way to make calamitous decisions.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    In this analogy where the mower is the prospects and the yard is the trade return, I assume the Twins neighbor (another MLB club) isn't going to let them use their prospects to get a deal done, at least not without some cost. If it's a beer, fine. If it's your brand new car, not so much.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Sure, because we all know that spark plugs only fail in winter, and when they do fail, loudly announce that fact immediately.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Again, a lot of assumptions here (unless you have proof I haven't seen). It's entirely possible this wasn't dumped, but leaked. I can't fault Falvine if an unidentified staffer has a beer too many and blurts out something to a reporter they shouldn't. I also can't discount that it could've been someone from the Mets putting that report out--maybe they would have been happy to get Buxton, but they were actually trying to drive up the price with another organization. There is just so little information out there, not to mention the meaning behind it, that it is impossible to gauge the effectiveness of a front office's efforts unless you are on the inside. Since none of us are, I choose to believe that our FO is good at what they do, given the results on the field, and the general misery of assuming otherwise.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    So if you go out to mow your yard, but the mower won't start because of a faulty spark plug, and once you've replaced the spark plug, its started to rain, and once it stops raining you have to go pick up your kid at school, and once you've picked up your kid you get rear-ended on the drive back home, and once you've finished dealing with the police and insurance the sun has gone down, leaving the yard unmowed, it's because you didn't try? Yoda, by his own definition, is also a failure. He did not prevent the rise of the Sith, leading to the creation of the empire, and the death of millions, if not billions of sentient beings.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I would love to know where I said that. I have offered only rationales for why the FO has not completed any deals bigger than Romo, while stating that lack of results is not the same as lack of activity. If you read some of the posts on here stating the level of irritation posters would have if no trade is completed, it's quite clear that a number of people think they're not really trying.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    No one is saying Activity > Results. I (and others) are saying No Results <> No Activity.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    At this point in time, the Twins have a 7.7% chance of winning the world series. Even if a series of trades today doubled those odds, I think with our offense set up for years to come, and a FO that seems capable of astute moves, and a top 5ish farm system, I think the odds of a competitive window are greater, and you're far more likely to take a big pot if you can play more big hands.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Faulty logic. You are assuming the only reason a deal doesn't get done is because Falvine is incapable. I guarantee you Falvine is more than capable of offering the Mets Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, and Lewis for Syndergaard; a deal which would be hastily and enthusiastically agreed to by the Mets. There are a lot of people on this site who seem to think we're living in a video game world with the trade approval setting off, and therefore the only impediment to a deal is lethargy.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    It's very easy for a player to demand trades when they know full well they will not be involved. I imagine Berrios would feel very differently about the need to make a trade if he was the player in line to be shipped out.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Haha, good catch. Live by google, die by google.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Isn't it possible that the teams with pitching to trade are less than motivated to consummate a deal, or perhaps aren't interested in position player prospects, or more specifically aren't interested in our position player prospects, or are deliberately maintaining demands they know to be outrageous in the hopes that a theoretically young(ish) and inexperienced(ish) Twins FO will crack under the pressue? I'm sure we could have Syndergaard right now if we gave the Mets Buxton, Balazovic, and Graterol. I'm sure Vazquez or Yates would be on their way if we gave up Kiriloff, Lewis, and Larnach. But would either of those deals be smart? No. This is a team that is set up to be good for a long time--every member of our record-breaking offense except Schoop is under team control for next year, and for every reason to think there might be regression, there are reasons to hope for progression. Our pitching staff will need work next year, but you don't need to fix next year's staff today--you have an entire offseason. I hope this Front Office doesn't do something for the sake of doing something; there is a chance we're looking at a 5-7 year window of annual competitiveness.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    I didn't know Brett Veach posted on Twins Daily! Thanks for taking time out of what I'm sure is a busy day for you Mr. Veach!
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    In this edition of "Major League Baseball Players Live Different Lives Than the Rest of Us," we're having fun with the experience of a guy who just made $12,000 for four days of eating sunflower seeds and watching games.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm fairly certain the Twins will allow Romo to fly on the charter with them going forward, so a round trip ticket is/was unnecessary.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Andrew Cashner has a 4.65 FIP (60th amongst 76 qualified starters) and 4.94 xFIP (63rd), is striking out barely 6 per 9 (71st) while walking almost 3 per 9 (47th), all with an unsustainably low .263 BABIP (10th). There's a reason he was available in June, and for the price the Red Sox paid.
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