Cap'n Piranha

At this point in time, the Twins have a 7.7% chance of winning the world series. Even if a series of trades today doubled those odds, I think with our offense set up for years to come, and a FO that seems capable of astute moves, and a top 5ish farm system, I think the odds of a competitive window are greater, and you're far more likely to take a big pot if you can play more big hands.

Faulty logic. You are assuming the only reason a deal doesn't get done is because Falvine is incapable. I guarantee you Falvine is more than capable of offering the Mets Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, and Lewis for Syndergaard; a deal which would be hastily and enthusiastically agreed to by the Mets. There are a lot of people on this site who seem to think we're living in a video game world with the trade approval setting off, and therefore the only impediment to a deal is lethargy.

It's very easy for a player to demand trades when they know full well they will not be involved. I imagine Berrios would feel very differently about the need to make a trade if he was the player in line to be shipped out.

Haha, good catch. Live by google, die by google.

Isn't it possible that the teams with pitching to trade are less than motivated to consummate a deal, or perhaps aren't interested in position player prospects, or more specifically aren't interested in our position player prospects, or are deliberately maintaining demands they know to be outrageous in the hopes that a theoretically young(ish) and inexperienced(ish) Twins FO will crack under the pressue? I'm sure we could have Syndergaard right now if we gave the Mets Buxton, Balazovic, and Graterol. I'm sure Vazquez or Yates would be on their way if we gave up Kiriloff, Lewis, and Larnach. But would either of those deals be smart? No. This is a team that is set up to be good for a long time--every member of our record-breaking offense except Schoop is under team control for next year, and for every reason to think there might be regression, there are reasons to hope for progression. Our pitching staff will need work next year, but you don't need to fix next year's staff today--you have an entire offseason. I hope this Front Office doesn't do something for the sake of doing something; there is a chance we're looking at a 5-7 year window of annual competitiveness.

I didn't know Brett Veach posted on Twins Daily! Thanks for taking time out of what I'm sure is a busy day for you Mr. Veach!

I'm a little confused why Marwin isn't at third (2.9 UZR this year in only 267 innings, compared to Sano's -0.4 in 409 innings. Although that being said, I'm also surprised Adrianza isn't starting over Gonzalez, as he is better against righties (.762 OPS, 104 wRC+ compared to .710 and 88). With no Cruz, we need to put the best possible lineup out on the field.

In this edition of "Major League Baseball Players Live Different Lives Than the Rest of Us," we're having fun with the experience of a guy who just made $12,000 for four days of eating sunflower seeds and watching games.

I'm fairly certain the Twins will allow Romo to fly on the charter with them going forward, so a round trip ticket is/was unnecessary.

Eh, Gonzalez is actually a very large drop off from Garver; it's on par with going from George Springer to Albert Pujols. Marwin is extremely valuable, and I'm glad he's on the team this year and next, but his value is derived largely from defensive versatility and intangibles. That being said, he has 3 straight months of 120ish wRC+ production, so it's not like he's quad A.

Because the Twins are operating under the idea that catching is extremely taxing, and giving your catchers frequent days completely off is a good thing. Given that Garver has been the best offensive catcher in baseball this year, while Castro at 32 and coming off surgery is having his best season since 2013, I think they might be on to something. I would not be surprised to see a lot more teams copying the Twins approach in the next few years.

Most pitchers have made about 2/3 of their starts so far this year, so they would need to be at about 120 innings to be on pace for 180. There are currently 32 pitchers with 120+ IP this year, and another 15 between 115 and 120. Certainly most pitchers won't get to 180 IP, but it's not a rare occurrence or anything. Syndergaard has seasons of 2.8, 5.9, 4.2, and 2.7 (2019) WAR--he's definitely a good pitcher, and is likely to command a good amount in arbitration. It's also important to remember that arbitration is an either-or proposition. For example, if the Twins offer $13M, and Syndergaard asks for $20M, but the panel thinks his true value is $17M, he doesn't get $17M, he gets the $20M. Keep in mind that Bauer won his case for $13M, and his previous 4 seasons had been for 13.3 WAR, compared to Syndergaard at 14.3--if he continues his pace this year, he'll finish his year at around 4 WAR, which would give him 15.2. Either way, the Twins will clearly have to spend at least $30M and probably more for a good but risky pitcher. Just makes me nervous.

I was referring to specifically his slider and cutter, both of which are down over 3 MPH from just last year. Of his 5 pitches, the fastball has graded out neutral, but the sinker and slider are negative, which means he really only has two effective pitches. As for health, let's look at the appearances of the Twins current starters--it seems like much of the Twins ability to avoid injuries to the starters has come from amassing fairly durable guys. Odorizzi--at least 26 starts every year since 2013 Berriosat least 25 starts every year since 2014, over 30 since 2016 Gibson--at least 27 starts every year since 2013 Perez--at least 20 starts every year since 2015 (except 2018 where he was moved to the bullpen and made 7 appearances--not health related). Pineda--the one injury prone guy This is why I'm not super hot on Syndergaard--paying $40m over the next two years for a guy showing some signs of decline who is also an injury risk, AND having to give up the pieces that comprise our depth over the next 2-4 years makes me nervous. I think if they can get him for Kiriloff and a couple of C prospects I'm ok, or for one guy in 3-6 range and two in the 10-20 range I'm good. Anything more, and I'll be legitimately anxious.

Power pitchers who lose velocity in their age 26 season, and have a history of collecting injuries worry me. Syndergaard has only hit 180 innings in a season once in his entire MiLB/MLB career, and is about to start costing close to $20M a year. Unless the Pohlads are ready to head to $150m to $175M payroll range, getting Syndergaard probably means saying goodbye to at least one guy from the Buxton/Berrios/Rosario group. Therefore, if the price to acquire includes more than one of Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, and Graterol, I say no. If they want one of those four, plus some combo of Gordon, Jeffers, Rortvedt, Cavaco, Davis, etc. I'm ok with it. Also, Johan was a far superior pitcher than Syndergaard at the time he was traded. Sure, a bit less control, but had just completed his fourth straight year of 200+ IP with at least 4 WAR, and that 4 WAR was a down year from the previous 3 (6.8, 7.1, 6.7). Johan led all starters in WAR over that range with 24.6--only 3 other pitchers were over 20. He was also only one of 8 pitchers to average 9K/9 over that timeframe--31 pitchers have done that in the last 4 full seasons. Johan was the best pitcher in baseball when he was traded; over the past 4 years, Syndergaard has been 15th. Great, but not at the same level.

Would you also accept that how your opponent plays is a big factor, and that teams with better records are more likely to play well on any given day? If so, it would seem like schedule is pretty damn relevant.

Since you want to dive deeper--one of the wins against Houston was against Cole when he was struggling (he had a 4.71 ERA AFTER giving up two runs in 7 innings in that game). The other win against Houston was against McHugh, who has a 5.12 ERA on the year. None of the 4 games was against Verlander, the Indian's 4 starters were Bauer, Kluber, Bieber, and Carrasco, and Lindor played in all 4 (he was a PH in one of the two losses). When the Indians played the Yankees in June, Aaron Judge got 0 plate appearances, but Kendrys Morales and his 62 wRC+ got 7. The Yankees were also playing well (104 win pace before the series), but have found another gear after that series (114 win pace since that series). Going into the series against the Red Sox, Boston had just come off 3 games against Houston, as opposed to when they played the Twins, where they were coming off 3 games against Baltimore. Against the A's, it should be noted that if you're going to give Cleveland a pass for struggling in May, you have to give the same to the A's--they weren't even a .500 team until their last win against Cleveland on May 22. So the bad Indians went 1-5 against the bad A's, while the bad Twins went 3-4 against the good A's (the A's have played at a 101 win pace AFTER completing the sweep of the Indians). The Twins opponents the rest of the way have a.463 winning percentage, the Indians are at .499. what's more, the stretch the Indians embark upon Tuesday has them playing 20 games in 20 days against teams with a combined winning percentage of .583 (94 win pace), while the Twins play 19 games against teams with a combined winning percentage of .490 (80 win pace). Essentially, the Indians are playing the Braves while the Twins are playing the Rangers for the next three weeks, and those three weeks are the toughest remaining portion of the Twins schedule. While the Indians might be done with the A's, the Twins are done with the A's, the Rays, the Yankees, the Angels, and the Astros. There are only 2 AL teams above .500 the Twins still have games against, and one of them is Cleveland who the Twins are 5-4 against.

One of the other 29 teams in Major League Baseball. Failing that, Korea and Japan are always options. C.J. Cron is currently 10th on the team in OPS (9th if you count Garver and Castro as one player). His best skill is power, but he's actually 8th on the team in SLG (again, 7th if Garver and Castro count as one). Call me crazy, but I think we can do better at 1st base. That being said, I'm not opposed to going to arbitration with him, and then trading him. The Red Sox might be interested--.740 OPS from first basemen

I was thinking the plan for next year would be to move Sano to first, and look for a Defense/OBP guy at third. Things like this opine against that notion.

Homer: What does "deadlocked" mean? Principal Skinner: It's when the jury cant agree on a verdict. Homer: And "if"? Principal Skinner: A conjunction meaning "in the event that" or "on condition of".

Andrew Cashner has a 4.65 FIP (60th amongst 76 qualified starters) and 4.94 xFIP (63rd), is striking out barely 6 per 9 (71st) while walking almost 3 per 9 (47th), all with an unsustainably low .263 BABIP (10th). There's a reason he was available in June, and for the price the Red Sox paid.

I'd love to have Esco back on the team, but he's fairly redundant given what we have with Gonzalez, Adrianza, and Arraez. If you can get him for an unexpectedly cheap price without taking up a lot of time to do it, great, otherwise I'm good with our lineup. Save your ammo (prospects and time) for pitching.

Maybe his hitting will improve? Crazy assertion, I know, but if Mitch Garver can go from an OPS of .679 as a 22 year old in Elizabethton to the best offensive catcher in baseball in 6 years, maybe Lewis can get better too. That being said, if the right player/package came along I'd be all for it, but it would have to be a hell of a deal.

As all organizations should do with the elite talent in their organizations. All GM's know that every player is available for a price (for example, if the Twins offered the Angels Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, and Garver, the Angels would be only too happy to give us Trout, Pujols, and Upton). Good GM's go into trade negotiations with the ability to credibly walk away without making a deal. It's harder to do that if you've broadcast your eagerness to trade a specific player.

Why stop at Castillo, deGrom, or Syndergaard? You know what player I would easily deal Lewis for? Mike Trout. Falvine should go do that.

This season is going to come down to 3 more stretches; From now through July 28, the Twins play 13 games against both NY squads, Oakland, and the White Sox; combined winning percentage of .538 (87 win pace). From July 30 through August 18, the Twins play 19 games against Miami, KC, Atlanta, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Texas; combined winning percentage of .492 (80 win pace). From August 19 through September 15, the Twins play 25 games against the White Sox, Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, and Washington; combined winning percentage of .469 (76 win pace). During these same periods, here's how the Indian's schedule looks; In period 1, 14 games against Detroit, KC, Toronto; combined winning percentage of .344 (56 win pace) In period 2, 20 games against Houston, LA Angels, Texas, Minnesota, Boston, and the Yankees (of note--these 20 games are in 20 days); combined winning percentage of .587 (95 win pace) In period 3, 25 games against Mets, KC, Detroit, Tampa, White Sox, Minnesota, and LA Angels; combined winning percentage .492 (80 win pace) At that point, the Twins get their final 13 games of the season against the dregs of the central, combined winning percentage of .368 (60 win pace). If the Indians are more than 3-4 games out after the game on September 15, it will be almost impossible for them to catch us. Therefore, expect the following to happen; Indians close to 3 or 4 games before the end of the month. The Twins make it all up in the next 20 games to push the lead back to the 7-9 game range, where it stays for the next month. The Twins enter their last 4 series with the Central all but locked down, and clinch at home against KC on September 22.