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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    In any conversation about Jay I like to point out that he had mostly 2+ inning relief appearances for the Illini. That's not the same as starting, but it's not like the Twins are trying to convert a one-inning-only guy to starter.
  2. 2wins87
    Part of his high ranking probably has to do with his frame (he's got 5 or 6 inches on Duensing). With youth, a good makeup, and athletic body it's not unreasonable to expect improvement. We don't know if that'll happen but I think that's why he still gets high ratings among prospect rankers who look beyond numbers. A fastball-changeup combo is a little bit rare mix for a reliever, so it makes sense to keep grooming him as a starter, especially with his body. If he can't put together a breaking ball he might not make the majors but if he does he looks like a pretty solid starter.
  3. 2wins87
    A couple guys that I think should be in the top 50: Luis Arraez, Jean Carlos Arias, and Huascar Ynoa. Obviously they are all very young and hard to project, but their upside should get them on the list. I'd also include Eades who was mentioned in a previous thread. He's disappointing for where he was drafted but he had a nice season and still has a good chance of playing in the majors.
  4. 2wins87
    They could have traded for more pool money. I would have liked to see them sign one or two more players for relatively sizeable amounts, but if there really wasn't anyone they thought was worth the money/trade value then I'm not broken up about it.
  5. 2wins87
    Gibbons is a bit of a surprise to me, he's barely been on my radar until now. Any more information on what got him ranked this high? How are his curve and changeup? 93 mph is nice and all but he better have a nice secondary offering to back it up with.
  6. 2wins87
    He's also got a very low K-rate (12% between the GCL and APPY). Guys who make a lot of contact tend to walk less because they often put the ball in play (or over the fence) before the count gets very deep. I'm not saying his BB rate is where it should be, but his combination of power and contact ability is pretty rare and worth getting excited about.
  7. 2wins87
    The Southern League seemed to eat up a lot of relief pitchers this year. The FSL is always a very pitcher friendly league while the Southern League is probably slightly hitter friendly. The parks in the FSL are usually pointed to as the main culprit, but I wonder if the umps in the Souther League call a tighter strikezone as a lot of relievers (Burdi, Jones, Chargois, Reed) had a drastic difference in walk rates between the two leagues.
  8. 2wins87
    "Ok Alex, step one, lose about 10 mph of velocity off your fastball. Upper 80's is all the velocity anyone should need."
  9. 2wins87
    The guys signed during this years signing period aren't allowed to start playing in any league until next year. But they can start getting instruction at the team's academy.
  10. 2wins87
    There is money out there if they want it. The Diamondbacks have the largest pool and are unable to sign guys for more than 300,000 (and they have no reported signings or trades thus far). The Red Sox have signed 4 guys for thier 300k limit but still have over 2 million in their pool. The Marlins, notorious for leaving money on the table have traded away $500k, but I wouldn't put it past them to trade away more. The Yankees haven't been reported to be involved in any signings or trades yet. In addition the Dodgers have realized that money is just a social construct that only has value because we collectively agree that it does and have traded away all of their slots after blowing through their limit. Maybe the Cubs follow suit.
  11. 2wins87
    If the reports on Vlad Jr's signing are correct the Blue Jays will also be at least 10% over their pool
  12. 2wins87
    Next year is going to be interesting. The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels, and Diamondbacks are still going to be subject to the $300,000 penalty from last year. Based on the information available now, the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, and Royals will be joining them. The Phillies and Braves are also well over their pools but have plenty of maneuvering room via trade. I think I'd rather have the Twins trade for space and stay under cap this year. Next year could be pretty interesting and projecting the strength of future international classes is next to impossible.
  13. 2wins87
    Kepler got $800k, Polanco $750k
  14. 2wins87
    I've been feeling that they should send Santana down and bring up Vargas for a little while now. I do think Escobar is a better hitter than Santana, at least right now. I don't expect him to repeat last year but I do expect him to hit better than he has so far. And UZR actually likes his defense at short. We saw him make a bad error yesterday, but Santana hasn't been great either. Santana's been better fundamentally lately but he doesn't seem to have the best range. I don't think Escobar/Nunez would be much worse overall, and if Vargas has figured something out in his time at AAA having a legit bat at DH would be a lot of help right now.
  15. 2wins87
    I was pretty intrigued by him last year but his talent fell pretty squarely between the Twins first and second picks. Undersized guy with the best breaking ball in the draft, I imagine the breaking ball was giving the Kernel's hitters fits yesterday.
  16. 2wins87
    "Often regarded as an opposite field hitter (outside of his relative reliability at pulling ground balls)" This is actually a pretty big misconception. Mauer pulls ground balls more often because everyone pulls ground balls more often. He's actually well below average in GB pull rate, as he is in every trajectory type. It's just that his flyball pull rate is crazy low, or at least it has been to this point in his career.
  17. 2wins87
    My own assessment would be: Minier - Flat Harrison - Slightly up Reed - Slightly up (I think his ERA and WHIP are unlucky, good peripherals, might be above Burdi for me) Turner - Slightly down (his bat showed a bit more promise last year) Duffey - Up (I was a little less bullish on him preseason, he could be headed into the top 10 right now) Rogers - Flat Walker - Flat (yes he's hit a lot of home runs but he's always done that and his K/BB doesn't point to any improvement in other areas) Gonsalves - Up Kepler - Slightly up Thorpe - Slightly down
  18. 2wins87
    Melotakis had already moved back to the bullpen last year before getting injured. A tenuous connection to the starter experiment at best. Just because a guy is in the bullpen doesn't mean he moves as quickly as expected anyway. Look at Burdi who seems really unlikely to reach the majors this year with how his control has been so far. I see no harm in trying him as a starter as long as he shows promise.
  19. 2wins87
    It's funny to be excited about walks but Walker definitely needs to do that more often. And his strikeout rate is now below 40%! In all seriousness, if he ended the season with a K-rate around 25% but a walk rate north of 10% (and obviously kept hitting for power) I'd be pretty excited about that.
  20. 2wins87
    I'll take Cederoth
  21. 2wins87
    I've mentioned this before, but Rogers is very good at getting ground balls, a skill that is likely to translate to the majors as well. I had him around 20, but I didn't think he had anything more than an average fastball. If he's hitting the mid 90s he has a bit more upside and merits some reconsideration. Although I do wonder if adding velocity is changing his fastball trajectory and his pitcher profile in the process. But if he learns to change speeds effectively he might be able to sneak his fastball by guys some of the time and take a little off to make them pound it into the ground at others. Seth, I know you do a lot more research and have a lot better sources than than us armchair guys, so I always like the surprises on your list.
  22. 2wins87
    Pretty sure Tonkin is indeed above the rookie limit. He already had 28 days of service time from last year.' I like the placement of Larson; he's my pick for sleeper prospect next year. I think his numbers would have looked better had his season not been interrupted by injuries. I like Romero and Gilmartin a bit higher, they are in the top 20 for me.
  23. 2wins87
    I really like the this part of the list because it always introduces me to guys that aren't even on my radar yet. Looking forward to the rest.
  24. 2wins87
    I still have Jorge and Eades in my top 30, but both have had discouraging performances so I understand why they are down here. I think the talent level for both of them merits a bit higher placement, though of course it's next year that will ultimately determine whether they deserve a higher ranking.
  25. 2wins87
    I could definitely debate a lot of these, but the one I am going to bring up is Gonsalves at 10 and Thorpe at 18. I like Gonsalves quite a bit, probably top 15, but at this point they've got very similar repertoires, and Thorpe has shown a much better ability to control it. Gonsalves got a touch of experience at a slightly higher level, but is also a year older, and has less of a track record in pro ball right now.
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