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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. The people voting for Trump are those POd voters who are going to be the first to pick up arms if it comes to that. The problem is that I don't think they are backing someone who can actually help their cause.
  2. Not sure I'd quite call them idiots... they recognize that the EU doesn't have England's best interest in mind, especially with the EU continually being called on to bail out those PIIGS nations, which are going to drag all of Europe down. I wouldn't be surprised if that experiment breaks up all together... the real idiots here are the ones thinking debt can solve the world's economic problems. There's no country big enough to take on Italy when they finally default, and simply inflating currencies to allow for more debt kicks a can down the road that needs to be solved now and continues to enable the very behaviors that led to it in the first place. England recognized this first. I wouldn't be surprised if the Germans in particular are the next to go. They stand to lose the most by this continued insanity. We need to figure that one out in the US sooner than later, b/c once the great European experiment comes to an end, we're next. PS... if you're worried about your portfolio, I'd start looking at the fact that we are at historically ridiculous P/E ratios right now. Stocks are due for a massive drop. We never fixed what went wrong in 2008. I'd advise angling some of your portfolio on ETFs that work opposite the market (BZQ, TWM, etc.). It's coming.
  3. Well, here is my take.. Trade the following: Plouffe - don't really care the return. He's a log jam. I have no issue packaging someone with him to get a better return, but I'm not expecting much here. Dozier - want a decent return. Again I have no issue packaging someone to get it, especially if that's a near ML ready catcher. Abad - TR struck gold here. Flip him for a C+ guy in the lower minors. Suzuki - Flip for a C+ guy in the lower minors. Not that Centeno/Murphy/Garver excite me for 2017, but he's gone after this year and might have some demand. Boshers - not sure he'd get much, but I'd have no problems dangling him if someone is desperate. Honestly, the returns (with the exception of BD) won't be that high. I'd be looking for lower minors guys that have nice ceilings but lots of risk attached. Realistically, seeing all of these guys gone by Aug 31 isn't reasonable. It just doesn't happen that often. There's that whole supply and demand thing and getting the right partners together isn't always workable. I'd probably listen on Nunez (but would ask a lot) and Grossman if someone was calling, but I'm not sure I'd actively shop either of them.
  4. Keep losing at this point. May as well get the first pick in the draft.
  5. I think we forget that Harrison was an HS pick who has been continually moved up and challenged... while not excelling, he's held his own while being younger than the league. This is the first time in his career he's being asked to repeat, so I would like to see a nice bump in the numbers by the time the season ends (his OPS is about 50 points higher as of this post than his last season, but that's not enough in my opinion). His real issue thus far is that his power really hasn't developed as hoped. Hopefully that changes, and at his age it certainly could. He could be on the Trevor Plouffe or Denard Span development plan. He is only 23 in his second stint in AA. That alone is nothing to sneeze at. Unfortunately, he just hasn't taken that step forward that we all want. BTW, side note, but this is probably what to expect out of most HS guys drafted after the first round.
  6. Let's not assume that. I know a lot of people have no love for Ryan, but Plouffe is going to get really expensive. I think Ryan would have extended him already if that was the long term plan, so I won't assume Plouffe will be here come next year. I could see him being here after the trade deadline. I don't like that at all, but Ryan doesn't typically pull off a trade without value, and I think we're all pretty much saying that he should do that in Plouffe's case. I could see Polanco playing once a week, more than anything b/c Molitor seems to have zero desire to play him. To me, that would be the sticking point on whether Molitor is the manager of the future. If he cannot work with the kids, we need to find someone who can.
  7. A C+/B- prospect on Sickel's scale is a pretty decent prospect. I'd be perfectly fine getting that for Dozier. I'd probably start by asking for a top 100 (note that on Sickle's scale, the bottom part of the top 100 are B+/B guys), perhaps throwing in someone in the low minors to make that work if said top 100 guy fits a position of need (such as a near ML ready C), but after thinking it through, I'd take a lower return on Dozier and a C+/B- prospect would be just that.
  8. Plouffe is tradable. The return will be low, and I agree with everyone else that I'm perfectly fine getting a C prospect for him. That solves the Sano problem. At this point, I think it's a given. Trade him. Give him away. I really don't care... nothing against the guy, but he's the odd one out. It doesn't solve the middle infield problem. That situation is a bit different and oddly enough is a good one to have.. Escobar got off to a hot start, got hurt and cooled, and seems to be heating up again. OPS now sits at about .700, which is pretty good for a SS and even better for one that plays average to above defense. If he keeps this up for another couple of weeks, that OPS might be sitting much higher. Repeating what he did last year makes him a much more valuable commodity. If so, do you keep him? He's under control for a while yet if memory serves me right, which tells me he can be a part of the future. He's also young enough that extending makes sense.Polanco is killing AAA. Defensively, he's week at SS, but from the sounds of it, he's adequate to better at 2B. He's blocked by Dozier and Nunez. He has too much control to be given up on and needs to play every day. At some point very soon, he should be doing it every day at the MLB level, with no concerns about being sent down... He just needs to play. By the way, Polanco is one of those guys who has 4 options. Is he out next year or did the Twins burn the fourth one this season?Dozier is the current 2B. 2 years and change at a very cheap contract who seems to have adjusted to what pitchers were doing. OPS is climbing to above average levels while playing good defense. 2017 is likely not going to be a playoff year, meaning Dozier is only around for 2018, and recommitting doesn't make sense in his case given his age and that Polanco guy just mentioned.Nunez is a wild card. His bat was always decent, glove not so much. His bat has really taken a step forward this year, though to be fair, this could be somewhat luck driven. He's also cheap, though at 29, there's a bit more risk in extending him. But he's under control for a couple more years and could easily be the 4th guy in a 3B/SS/2B platoon and get enough plate appearances to be (for all intents and purposes) an every day player.Reality is that you can only keep three of the four. I've been on the fence about trading Nunez, but I think at this point he's the guy to keep. Dozier should be traded and Polanco should get an extended shot... by extended, I mean he's playing most days at 2B for the remainder of the season. Yeah, I think defensively we will be disappointed (I was when I saw him this spring), but at this point, who really cares. Let him play and develop. Dozier was defensively at first too, and I think Polanco has the chops to get there if he puts in the effort. The real issue here is next year, as he has to stick. If he's out of options, we may be rolling with some pretty sub-par play at 2B in 2017. I don't see this team going from 100 losses to 90+ wins, so I'm fine with that in 2017, not so certain about 2018 though. So, after thinking it through online.... Trade Plouffe for whatever. Trade Dozier. I want a return for Dozier, and I'm willing to take the risk and wait a bit longer for him to make those numbers a bit more respectable, but I think I'm trading him for the best offer I can get before July 31. Keep Nunez, Polanco, and Escobar.
  9. Man, Wade gets promoted to FTM and promptly hits the DL. What's the injury?
  10. This... It is why I get tired of the spend/not spend debate. The same people saying spend are the ones that wanted Sipp and Bastardo (to be clear, I wanted one of them too, or O'Day who from the sounds of things was never really interested coming here). Sipp and Bastardo would be absolute disasters in the pen now, and there would be a commitment to keep them there, at which point we'd be castigating the front office for not dumping these guys and signing them in the first place. And quite frankly, simply dumping them after committing millions to them isn't going to happen. It might be an interesting experiment to see who was available and what they signed for. Without looking at anything other than the big three RPs listed above, I'd be willing to bet that in general the results are less than stellar.
  11. Has Zunio fallen so much as a prospect that he could realistically be had for Nunez?
  12. Molitor is right that it's a juggling act. I sure don't think lifting your DH with a victory in sight in favor of a guy more likely to do what your DH is not (getting on base) is hardly a bad thing... not for one at bat. It's more of the 'sit the guy on the bench for a week straight' type issues I take with him. At this point though, development should be top concern. If either Ryan or Molitor have an issue with that... well I just don't know what to say.
  13. Klaw constantly criticizes everyone, and he commends them too. Lest you forget, Law was the one saying the Twins are doing just fine with Stewart while also saying that they left Walker in A ball a bit too long. He has different opinions on different people, and I'd also add that of late he's been more complimentary to our system than not. You're working off of an older meme that was more pronounced a few years back (coincidentally, when the Twins farm system was really bad). From the looks of things, Walker's problem isn't that he was left in A ball too long, I might add.
  14. Honestly, the only place where this really happens is with international free agents signed at 16 (think Kepler and Polanco). You don't see it nearly as much with high school kids, b/c if the kid spends more than 2 seasons in rookie ball, he's already on the bust side of the spectrum. I really think the CBA should give those kids and extra year or two of team control prior to rule V. As it is, it's a short season plus four full seasons for them, starting at age 16, which means they are being put on the 40 man at 20/21. That's a problem that every major league team has, and it has nothing to do with where they start out the season.
  15. I read the article and the first thing I thought was that each of these teams would be suitors for Plouffe too. I doubt you could unload both on one team as it gets redundant (unless they are really hurting for a starting 3B and a versatile infielder). That said, for some reason I really like Juan Hillman. Of all the names, that's the one I want the most. I think I'd prefer the ceiling over some one closer to the big leagues that's just going to end up adding one more less than top ceiling guy to a young core of AAA/MLB pitchers in Gibson, Duffey, May, Meyer, and Berrios.
  16. If coaching had no impact, then they wouldn't need coaches. The question isn't the amount of impact but how much and whether some coaches are better than others. It's a very valid question. We tend to explain it all as luck, and at times I question that.
  17. Note that Meyer is hurt right now.
  18. As a general rule of thumb, I take anything Souhan or Reusse says with a pretty large grain of salt.
  19. Personally, I'd go after the high schoolers... higher ceilings in general. Given the org's need at C, Shamoy wouldn't be a bad grab either.
  20. I'll disagree here (on Dozier at least not really with everything else you said). It's easy to site career norms, but Dozier has shown that he can be much better for far more than a month. He was never the highly sought after prospects b/c at the end of the day, he probably has to work a bit harder to get the results. I wouldn't just offload him, as I think he's a valuable piece. I suspect other GMs are going to agree there, though whether or not they will offer what it is worth to part with him is a different issue. I wouldn't trade him for nothing. Plouffe on the other hand... sell. I don't really care if the return is less than a Topps 1992 baseball card set. They rolled the dice hoping they could get a better return at the deadline. I don't see that happening at this point (and I highly doubt they had decent offers on the table in the offseason).
  21. Pretty much with you at this point. I'd add Melotakis to the RP list as he's on the 40 man. Not 100% sold on trading Dozier, but not against it for a good offer. I think Buxton needs to return to AAA. I don't care much for Santana, but I'm fine letting him finish the season as the CF to see if by chance there was something more than luck to his 2014. I think he's a decent utility guy, so I have no issues letting him run with that job giving Buxton more time to be ready.
  22. Yes and no. It's contextual more than anything else. You have a high ceiling young OFish guy who clearly isn't a CF but does have some real roster crunch issues making it harder for him to get PT. An occasional game in CF (think Parmelee a few years ago) isn't going to hurt anymore than it already does. Yeah, not good long term for pitchers, but then again, it's probably costing an out every game or two, which is while it sucks will give the team a chance to see if this kid could have been a cornerstone bat or the very least up his value so he could be flipped if the team is sold on Park (why he hasn't been optioned at this point is another issue). Bottom line is that Arcia needed at bats, and he didn't get them consistently in what was a make or break season. In a season where you're going to lose 100 games, this is (in my opinion at least) inexcusable. It would be far more understandable if this team was in the middle of a race for a playoff spot, but they weren't. Arcia's release comes down to a complete failure to recognize what was clearly obvious after week 2 and a failure to adjust to this reality in the name of the long term health of the organization.
  23. Exactly what is this based on? No one on this roster is repeating after destroying Etown before. If anything, I'm a bit surprised they started Kirilloff this high. Usually those guys go to the GCL.
  24. I'm sorry, those second stint numbers don't show me he's ready. That K rate is way too high and the slash line is, to put it mildly, ugly. He's still not walking where he should either. Others have pointed out that he's having issues recognizing breaking pitches, and I'd add that the few weeks in AAA that he had hardly proves anything. He needs to establish good habits, and I don't think those habits get established in MLB nearly as easily as they do in AAA, and his problem goes beyond recognizing an AAA breaking ball vs. an MLB breaking ball. It's that he has trouble with both. There's something to be said about learning how to play in lower pressure environments, and Buxton is going to be dealing with a very real options problem in the not so distant future. They've already burned that option this year, so they may as well make use of it. I'm glad he's doing a bit better during his second stint, but when a bit better is still well below league average... well let's just say let him keep working on his game in Rochester. He might be the best CF on this team right now (which is another issue for another day), but if they want him to realize his potential as an all star CF sooner than later, it is probably in his best interest to be doing that in Rochester.
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