diehardtwinsfan

I really think people are underselling Murphy's potential in this transaction. I get that the doesn't have a 5 tool all star ceiling that Hicks has (though to be clear, let's not pretend that Hicks is remotely close to being that guy), but he was average to above his entire minor league career while being young for his league. His 2 seasons in the majors (in albeit a limited sample) have been better than league average for a C while being an average defender behind the dish. He may not have an allstar ceiling, but he can easily plug a position of need with above average production for the next 4 years. I've had a bit more time to digest this trade, and while I was on the fence before, I'm more supportive now than what I was earlier. The Yankees get a bigger potential reward in Hicks, but they are also taking on bigger risk. Both teams are trading from positions of strength to fill a position of need. My main concern is that this is not necessarily going to help in 2016 as the Twins now have a short term need in the OF. That's fillable, but I could see the OF taking a big step back until 2 of Buxton/Kepler/Arcia/Walker are ready.

I have no problems trading Plouffe to an AL central team. As stated everywhere, he's an average 3B, to slightly above. He hits well in TF, which I suppose could be an issue, but this isn't hte type of player that can burn you later. I suspect it will be AL central teams who are less likely to hand over a nice prospect for him than it will be Ryan trading Plouffe. If the WhiteSox gave the best deal, I'd have no problems taking it. As it is, we already got Escobar for 2 months of Liriano. I wouldn't mind fleecing them for years of Plouffe.

Honeslty, I'm most hopeful for Burdi, Reed and Hildenberger. That could be our version of the KC bullpen right there and could do it for 6 years, and they will be in AA/AAA next year.

I have no problems with some minor league contracts on some guys that could be good, but yeah, some of hte marginal starters should be cycled into relief help.

I would be very disappointed if May ends up in the pen. I think that's the wrong answer, but there's a glut of pitchers in front of him. I get that Duffey had more success out of the gate, but May has more upside and was the Twins best SP when he got demoted. I think it is way too early to give up on that, and I'd even be willing to have Duffey on the Rochester shuttle to start 2016 to let May there. Looking at your writeup, I have to think that Josmil Pinto (also out of options I belive) will function as a bench bat, occasional DH/1B/backup C as well. The kid has a good enough track record to say he can hit and I think he'll improve the bench bat situation quite nicely. Nunez has a little pop too, and of course so does Arcia, which should give Molitor a decent option most games. I really think that the Twins will try to get an OF, whether that's a Span on a 1 year deal (I doubt Span does that) or a trade to pick someone up with a year left. Even if Plouffe is traded, I don't think TR relies on one of Buxton/Kepler/Walker to hold down a spot in the spring of 2016. All have way too many question marks, though I fully expect one or more to be pounding down that door by the end of May. That said, I think the roster has to still be lighter some major leaguers at some point. My candidates are Santana, Plouffe,Nolasco, Milone, and Gibson. I would be actively shopping all 5.

It's like every day is Christimas right now. My thoughts: 1) Somewhat on the fence. I'd have rather had Norris or Lucroy. I'm guessing the ask there was pretty high. Trading Hicks may come back to bite us, but I think the same could be said for the Yankees about this kid. I'd have waited a year on Hicks, but the Twins know him better than we do and may have realized that they've done about all they can do for him. 2) BABIP is probably overstated. His is .350. Isn't the league average about .330? If so, we are talking aobut a few extra hits a year... nothing to worry too much about. Regression isn't the issue. 3) He posted a .732 OPS last season. That's well above average for a catcher. He's also gots lots of control and is 2 years younger than Hicks. More question marks than Norris or Lucroy, but a good add. 4) Given how fragile Hicks seems to be mentally (and that's an appearance, not necessarily a fact), I really have to wonder how he's going to handle the NY media. I cannot imagine that going well at all. I do think this means that as far as Ryan is concerned, catching is addressed for this year. Like it or not, he's going to focus on RP help. It also may mean that Sano really will be in RF. Not quite certain I like that.

wow...that's one sucky contract (just looked it up). I suppose you have a point here other than the fact that Wright was on the wrong half of 3B this offseason. Given they were in the WS, the strikes me as a bad contract they offload (and pay a good chunk of) to a bad team so they can pick up a better 3B. I wouldn't rule them out, as the Mets without question have the resources to get it done if they want to upgrade there, but I do agree that's quite a bit more difficult.

Seriously... Shields isn't an upgrade anymore... Look at his stats... and remember this was in a pitcher's park. Stay away. Kimbrel and Norris, absolutely, but Shields is Nolasco 2.0.

What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete). No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use. Thoughts there?

There's no reasonable room for an ace and no one is going to take a package of Plouffe, Milone, and Nolasco to get one. The Twins need to trade all of these guys and I'll be quite honestly surprised if more than one is in a different uniform to start 2016. We have a nice promising young corps of pitchers with Gibson, Duffey, and May as well as Hughes and Santana who can be pretty solid number 2s (and possibly pitch like that ace for a stretch). Not to mention that there's Berrios waiting in the wings. Go get help in the pen. Get help at catcher. Find a decent fall back plan in the OF if Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Hicks, and Arcia all do not pan out, but do not go mortgage the farm/future to add to that log jam of pitchers.

yeah, I think I'd go after Hedges, Norris, or Lucroy before I went after Weiters personally. Here's the question I have. What's up with Pinto? We know he can hit (this season's injury issues aside). At what point does he become a viable option in this discussion?

I like that.

Santana strikes me as the type of guy that has value to a rebuilding team, as they can let him take his lumps as a starter. I'm fine with him in the 2016 futility role, and I'm also fine with the idea of trading him as a part of a package to a bad team with a good player at a position of need as their lack of competitiveness will let him take his lumps as a starter. As it is, we also have Polanco in the high minors who will at some point be requiring a roster spot too, and there's also a resurgent Levi Michael. At some point, the Twins will have to shed some of these guys.

I think Kepler is a real possiblity to earn that open corner position come spring, especially if Arcia falls on his face. I'm looking forward to seeing Buxton and Kepler in Rochester this year. I think both could get off to some hot starts and have us clamoring to have them up.

pretty much this. I'd welcome him here as a part time PH in the twilight of his career, but that's about it. The problem is that I doubt he sees this, and I doubt the Twins would either.

wow, you're higher on Walker than a lot of people. Is that a gut feel or do you have some sense that he's figuring things out? I know his walk rate has improved of late (though the K rate has not). I'm personally hoping that's the first step in him putting it together, but I still have a tough time rating him that high, even though I think he's got a ceiling of perenniel all star if he figures it out. Also on Stewart, do you have any contacts in the org who could answer questions about his lack of Ks? I know Neil Allen was preaching that from the top down, which is good, but Stewart took a step back in what is typically considered a pitchers league. I don't have too much of a problem if this is something where they are sacrificing Ks for other developmental gains, but it would be nice to know what the thought process is there.

I'm not an FO apologist by any means, but these are the types of irrational expectations that drive me and other posters around here absolutely nuts. The Twins had next to nothing for pitching in their system and a clear need to rebuild after two consectuive really bad seasons. Aquiring pitching talent was a must, despite the fact that this team hasn't developed an ace since Santana, and even in that case they had help from Houston. If they chose to not aquire high end pitching because of their developmental track record (as you have suggested here), you would be the first (and rightfully so I might add) to castigate them for not targeting pitching when it was extremely obvious that they needed pitching. But with that comes risk. I know you understand that concept, but I'm not seeing it here. Prospects fail all the time. We aren't the only team who has seen a guy in the top 100, or even top 50 drop out for various reasons. It happens, especially, I might add, with pitching prospects who are more difficult to develop and more suspectible to injury. There is a reason that you know what TINSTAAPP means. What none of us know is what else (if anything) was on the table for Span, but I highly doubt that any team would have had a younger major leaguer with some cost control on the table with a top 50 pitching prospect as well. As Ryan put it back when he aquired Meyer, once guys like him hit AA, they are untouchable. This is basic supply and demand. We needed help in the system on the mound, not at 1B/RF. We might have gotten your young major leaguer if it was some hitting help at a corner position where the system was weak. Those types of guys come cheaper because there's a lot more of them. Likewise, as another poster aptly put it, when the wins come is just as important. Getting Drew Storen for Span would have added a couple of wins to an otherwise disasterous 2013-2014 seasons, with no additional pitching help in the pipline (not to mention that it would not have strengthened a Washington team with WS aspirations). Leaving Span in house would have done so too, but the Twins would still have been that laughing stock. Regardless of how Meyer pans out, this is not the unmitigated disaster you now claim it to be. It is precisely the type of trade that Ryan needed to be making. What is more interesting about this is that as recently as last year, you were front and center castigating the front office for not calling up Meyer sooner, despite the fact that the main reason for not doing so is precisely why it is that he failed as a starter this season. You've been rather effusive of your praise for Meyer over the last two seasons, and I fail to see where you get to play the 'I told you so card' when in reality, what you wanted no other GM in baseball would have agreed to. You don't get to play this one both ways. Either Meyer was the pitcher you've praised the last too years and worthy of that risk or your assessment of him along with BA, BP, and everyone else was wrong. Hindsight is 20/20, and that is all that this really is. Meyer and May were unknown commodities with lots of risk when they were aquired. But they needed to be aquired.

I would normally agree with you, but I think this speaks more to the fact that the Twins have a deep system than anything. It's hard for me at least to put an untested 16 year old that high when all of the guys in front of him show similar amounts of promise and have had success at levels he won't even see for a while. In the Twins system a few years ago, he'd be top 5. Now, not so much.

Even if Meyer ends up in the pen, I'm not certain you can call the Span trade a disaster. It was the type of trade they needed to do, and there's no such thing as a risk free trade. It's why Ryan aquired 3 pitchers via trade that offseason, as invariably, some don't work out. The irony is that the one who appears to have worked out is the one no one thought would be this good. There's risk involved with this type of trade (and let's not forget that there was some risk aquiring Span too, and that he wasn't very good the first year of that transition). The Meyer book isn't closed just yet, and even as a reliever he could be pretty good. I agree that I'd rather him start, but I think calling the trade a disaster is a bit unfair. A disaster is Hardy for Hoey. This isn't that.

I think Meyer gets another chance to start this season, but it may be his last. Lots of upside here. With maybe the exception of Vielma, each of these guys could be well above average at their positions of play.

Just curious if Ryan said anything about Josmil Pinto on that. His bat was ready last year, though the concussion certainly affected him. Is the org looking at him more as a DH or does he have a future at C still?

Rookie league success always comes with the 'grain of salt' condition, but there is a correlation between success at a younger age and continued success down the road. Palacios could be a steal. He's on my radar to watch closely next year in Cedar Rapids.

I just need to say this and it needs to be said more and more and more: SHIELDS IS NOT AN ACE ANYMORE. He's 33 and saw an increase in ERA, WHIP, B/9, and HR/9 in a pitchers haven of all places. I know he gets Ks, and I'm open to picking him up for the right price assuming guys like May and Duffey still get to pitch, but in no way should we be giving up a ton of value for him. He's 1 year into a 4 year deal that is going to be about as untradable as Nolasco is now, and he's got about as much of a chance of pitching like an ace as Nolasco does going forward. Pass please.

Generally agree with Nick's conclusion. If buying one is the answer, which I'm not against, someone needs to ship Nolasco out of town to go with Milone and quite possibly Gibson. You cannot give Nolasco away right now, and I have to think that Gibson and Milone are already going to be dangled this offseason. I think the odds of one of Santana or Hughes pitching like one in 2016 is pretty good. I also think the odds of May or Berrios becoming one at some point in the next couple years is good enough that you don't leave them out of the picture or ship them off for a marginal upgrade.

Oh wow... as well as he pitched, I'd have thought he would stick around another year. Good luck to him.