chpettit19

I certainly don't mean turning point as in "he's completely doomed if he fails this year," but if he can't find his footing this season do we want them saving a spot for him in 2026? I've always been on the low end for what I see in Lee, but if he's going to be the star, or close to star, many people hope or expect him to be I think he very much needs to claim a spot with both hands and not let go this year. He can start in AAA and still accomplish that goal, but if he's still a question mark after this year his chances of being a fixture in the infield go way down. And I agree the Twins themselves may force that question mark and you know I'll huff and puff and annoy other posters with my endless rants about it. I just think this is an important year for Lee to push that 2B platoon out of the way. Even if the Twins make it harder than they need to on him.

I agree. I think he's at the turning point. He needs to show he can play at this level. Doesn't have to be a star from the jump this season, but he needs to play well enough to keep these kinds of signings far from the Twins minds. Them even considering these things is a rough look for Lee. Hopefully this kind of signing would be a minor league deal as Lee insurance, but even that feeling necessary is not great. It may be that they trust his skill but not his health, but, especially with this team, that's still bad.

Go look at Wallner's splits against lefties in the minors. Especially the upper minors. His OPS starts with a 9. Then go look at Gunnar's splits against them in the upper minors. His OPS starts with a 6. You have them backwards. Gunnar didn't prove he could hit them in the minors and then he was terrible in his first major league season against them (.448 OPS) while not being shielded from them because "it's what's best for him and the team." Then he got a little better in his 2nd MLB season while still not being shielded from them at all and putting up a .618 OPS against them. Then his 3rd season while still not being shielded from them at all he put up the .829 OPS against them. A number he never approached in the minors. That's our point. You have Gunnar and Wallner backwards. One proved it in the minors and then got shut down in the majors while the other didn't prove it in the minors but was given the chance to learn in the majors. Gunnar went from a .448 to an .829 OPS against lefties. So how much better can Wallner get from his .510? I'll say about 300 points if they actually just let him learn. But instead this article suggests we have to trade one of our 2 left-handed hitters to bring in a washed up vet as a backup in fielder. You're proving our point about the nonsense of this strategy.

You're welcome to participate in whichever conversations you want. Don't have to participate in ours. You are welcome to have a "zoomed in" conversation if that's what you'd like to participate in. I'm quite positive people will participate. The article brought up the left-handed hitters and the effect these potential signings would have on them. We responded to the suggestions brought up by the article. The article "zoomed out" and we responded to it. That's the point of the comment sections. Respond to the article and discuss with those that also want to discuss. So, again, the article itself zoomed out and we gave our opinions on that. Participate or don't in that conversation. It's up to you. As long as you remain within the rules of TD nobody is going to tell you how zoomed in you have to be with your comments just like nobody else is forced to be as zoomed out as some of us prefer to be as long as we all stay on the topics of the article. And we did. And many posters seemed to have found the comments worthwhile. I appreciate your feedback and I hope you take mine in the same way as it's given with no hard feelings at all.

I do think the Twins are the 2nd most improved team in the division to this point of the offseason. KC and Cleveland subtracted to add and I'm not sold that they added more than they subtracted (I'm not huge on WAR but I agree with the general numbers provided). Detroit did all their subtracting at the deadline last year. They subtracted all their average at best vets (and Flaherty, to be fair). Torres is a real player. Not star, but better than Bader or Coulombe. So, him alone gives the Tigers the best offseason, but they also added Flaherty back on top of that. And if they add Bregman as they're reported to be trying to do they'll be the clear favorite in the division even though they have some real question marks on their roster like the rest of the division. I didn't expect KC and Detroit to beat the Twins last year, but my prediction now is the same as it was then, the Central is anyone's (not Chicago) to be won. It's not the pushover division it was the last handful of years. It's also not full of juggernauts. All of these teams have real questions in multiple spots on their rosters. But Detroit is the only team making real additions and not making subtractions. The Twins aren't subtracting, but they're not making real additions while KC and Cleveland made real additions but also subtracted. Detroit is the clear winner of the offseason as of 4:30 central time on 2/6. But winning the offseason doesn't mean you'll win the season. It's wide open for any of the 4 to win. I won't be surprised by any order those 4 teams end up in. Unless one of them ends up below Chicago. That would surprise me.

Because the article mentions trading a left-handed hitting outfielder so Castro can go to the outfield as part of bringing in one of these players. Because every roster spot is connected and impacts the entirety of the roster. So, we were discussing our thoughts on the Twins forcing themselves into these types of players because of their complete refusal to give their left-handed hitters a chance to hit left-handed pitching. It's all connected and some of us enjoy bigger picture conversations instead of just discussing the individual players named because we believe the entire picture of the roster is what determines how the team will perform.

This is an intriguing idea. I may actually be on board with that even without Cease. I think Basallo has the chance to be the best all-around catching talent in baseball in a couple years. Rocket arm with average receiving and a bat good enough to DH in his off days is a heck of a weapon. It's also why Baltimore is unlikely to trade him. But that's a trade that looks pretty fair from both sides.

Especially if I hit left-handed. As @DocBauer points out, the Twins have 2 lefties on their roster. With maybe a 3rd possible. Or if it gets crazy and both Julien and Rodriguez are on the roster it may reach a whopping 4! And we're still calling them "redundant." What are we doing here?! There's 2 corner outfield spots and a DH spot. 2 lefties are not redundant for 2 positions, let alone 3! The Twins have melted people's brains with this to where we can't even count apparently. Somebody better email the Orioles and let them know Henderson and Holliday are redundant as middle infielders who hit left-handed. And Cowser, Kjerstad, and Mullins are redundant as outfielders who hit left-handed. Luckily for them Rutschman hits from both sides of the plate so he won't be redundant with Basallo when he gets called up. But Basallo possibly playing a bunch of 1B makes him redundant with O'Hearn. They should really look to move at least 4 of those guys because we all know you can't carry 7 lefties on an MLB roster without destroying your offense. Did you see how Henderson hit against lefties in his first 200ish PAs against them?! He can't hit lefties. No way. Ignore his .829 OPS against them in his 2nd 200 PAs against them. Platoon him! Wallner's 108 PAs against them definitely means he's toast. Larnach's 187? Book is written! He's got no chance. Don't even give these young guys a chance to learn. It's maddening.

I'm tired, boss.

Mountcastle is an interesting option. But I agree with everyone else, Ober is an outrageous cost for him. For a reasonable price, I'd take Mountcastle.

They could afford it. You know exactly what I mean. There's a whole lot of players that want to remain on Team X and don't. That's a nonsense argument. Correa wanted to remain an Astro. How'd that turn out? Bregman also wants to remain an Astro and that's very much up in the air. If the Twins offered him a 6 year, $180 million deal he'd be a Twin. They wouldn't do that, but this idea that he was never going anywhere else is nonsense. Players leave the teams they want to be on all the time. Like it's the main part of the offseason.

No, I don't. And I literally explained why in the section you cut out. Maybe just read that part and save us both this wasted time. Rodriguez, Kiersey, Helman, Eeles, McCusker, Keaschall, Lee, Gasper, Julien, Prato, Rosario. Off the top of my head. And, no, they're not all "kids." And, yes, the vast majority of them will fail and be worse than Bader. But I'm confident that the combination of them can produce a league average player for the league minimum and there's a chance it produces somebody above league average for the minimum that then sets the team up for success in the future. And, yes, some of those guys are infielders, but all the roster spots are connected. Especially on this team. It's why people like Castro so much. Because he can change where the opening on your roster is.

Then you're not looking closely enough.

That isn't all he effects at all. I actually don't think he effects Martin in any way. Martin is still on the MLB roster from my estimation. And that means he's still likely a short side platoon bat who will get a little playing time at 2B as well. If the idea is that Bader is a platoon for a corner OFer because he doesn't move Larnach to most time DH then Martin remains the most obvious other platoon bat for the 2 lefties we know will be on the roster. Yes, some of us focus on the kids because of the word "yet." Yet is the key. Yet keeps pushing things back because of the average at best vet. And maybe it isn't "yet." Maybe the kids are good now. You don't get to find out because the average at best vet is taking the PAs. At the end of the day it's a matter of taste on team building. Some people like the floor building vets and some of us prefer the possible ceiling raising kids. And of course, the math isn't that simple, but it gives an idea. The Twins could never afford Correa until they could. Is Bregman going to settle for a 1-year deal, too? This is happening every year now. Big time players don't get the big deal they want and take essentially 1-year deals. The Twins could've paid Alonso 30 mil this year. They could pay Bregman 30 mil. Shoot, apparently, they could've paid them 35. The math isn't that simple, but it's also not just blindly "those guys are never coming here." I'd prefer to be in the race for one of those guys and still be able to snag these average at best vets late in the offseason like we do. Instead we don't join any races and then sign the average at best vets late anyways. Outside of the point proving Correa deal, obviously.

Just like Correa was NEVER signing with the Twins. I'm not asking for me to get a hard payroll number. What an incredibly weird argument. But Falvey should probably have a pretty good idea about what he's allowed to spend during the offseason, shouldn't he? That's what I'm talking about. Like everybody else. We're judging the front office on the information we have available. That information has changed. Once information changes it's pretty logical to change your assessment of what's taken place. My questions are about whether or not Falvey knew he had up to 150 mil to spend from the beginning of the offseason or if it's a new development. Nobody is demanding that we know their budget. That's nonsense. Again, you're arguing against things I'm not saying.

Very likely, yes.

That's possible.

The Twins have no more than 3 lefties on their roster right now mostly like, right? Larnach, Wallner, and maybe Julien? Why would we think they're going to start against LH pitching? I wish they'd play them every day and see if they can be everyday players, but why would we expect that to be the actual situation? Do you really think Rocco is going to play them against lefties over any right-handed option? I don't think that's likely.

Castro got his roster spot because of an injury to a veteran and another young player. They didn't move a veteran out of the way for him. He's not that counterexample. Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff being hurt got him a roster spot. He would've been sent to the minors no matter what his spring looked like if either one of those guys were healthy. Or Buxton could play CF if you really want to get into it. If Keaschall or Rodriguez or Keirsey or Helman or any of those guys "look really good in the spring training game" you watch this year is that going to be them "earning it?" Are they going to move Bader aside for them? Lee looked good in spring training last year but that wasn't "earning it." Why was Castro looking good in spring "earning it?" Your definition of "earning it" for him is simply that he was on the roster. He "earned it" by getting a chance. An extended chance at that. Because his OPS through his first 30 games (midway through May) was a whopping .607. He got to stay on the roster because they didn't have any vets to replace him which allowed him to work through his struggles and improve. Which is literally what we're asking for with the other guys instead of rostering the Margot, Farmer, Gallo, Bader types. He was a non-prospect nobody expected anything out of who got a chance because the Twins didn't have a choice and he improved and ended up being a useful piece. Just like Joey Gallo wasn't blocking anyone? And Margot wasn't blocking anyone? Come on. This is provably false by the way they run their team. Margot blocked Martin who outperformed him in every offensive category. Gallo blocked Wallner who more than earned it in AAA. Shoot, Andrelton Simmons blocked Jose Miranda in 2021 because they wouldn't just cut his useless self and move Polanco or Gordon to SS in a lost season and let Miranda get his feet wet while he put up a .973 OPS in the upper minors over 127 games and Donaldson spent most of the 2nd half DHing. But Jake Cave, Willians Astudillo, Kyle Garlick, and Rob freaking Refsnyder sure got some run that year. Really paid off big in 2022, huh? .973 wasn't "earning it" either? Yes, there are endless examples on both sides of the AA performance argument. You're the one stating as fact that somebody isn't ready based on AA OPS numbers. I'm arguing that you don't know. What we are much closer to knowing is that Harrison Bader is going to be average at best. And if they had a veteran like Bader they could've used in 2023 they would've used him over Castro. Especially after those first 30 games where he wasn't good. But they didn't have the option so the non-prospect who was 26 years old got the chance by default and now you call him "a very good contributor."

So, wouldn't the major league level be the place for him to be so you can get answers to the question marks about his approach playing at the major league level?

The minor leaguers are tied to Bader. It's an appropriate conversation for this thread. Every signing has ripple effects and we're discussing the direct ripple effects of this signing. Just like the Hayes report is an extension of the Bader signing topic. All worthwhile discussions appropriate for this thread. Everyone can choose which of those extensions on the direct Bader topic they wish to be involved in. The more money they have available to spend the more I want to know when they knew they had this money and what that means. Was it always a 145-150 budget? Are they feeling like they're closer to an ownership deal so that's changing things? The more money they have available the less I like these types of signings because it means they could have pretty easily cleared enough to sign Alonso to the type of deal he got or maybe get Bregman for similar. And I'd rather have one of them plus young guys than all these average at best guys who don't raise the ceiling of this team.

Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill both had lower OPS numbers in AA and skipped (or essentially skipped in Chourio's case) AAA and went straight to the majors. Is 1.100 enough to show Emma is ready? If you don't like those 2 comps, how about Michael Harris II who had an .878 OPS in 43 AA games before jumping straight to the majors? Slightly better than Keaschall, but nothing crazy. He'd played 197 total minor league games before debuting. Emma has played 230. Keaschall is at 133 already.

Considering their track record of "value free agent signings" that isn't that large of an endorsement. And he has been very useful compared to his cost. I don't deny that. But his cost has gone up. Castro is actually an example of what we're talking about. He wasn't viewed as a 2 WAR player when they picked him up on a non-40-man roster contract. He signed a minor league deal and wasn't expected to play for the Twins. The boards around here weren't impressed at all. Were you claiming then that he'd be a 2 WAR player so they should give him a shot or were you saying the same thing you're saying now and advocating for a Harrison Bader or Kyle Farmer or Manuel Margot or Joey Gallo to take his place because "the minors are not full of 2 WAR players?" He was one of the young players we're talking about giving a shot to because they may be at least as good as the bad to average vets they keep bringing in. He's literally the example for letting the young guys give it a go. I'd trade Lee today. Would've traded him last year. I've long been one of the lower posters on Lee. And Larnach and Miranda have both put up OPS+ numbers over 110. Miranda on multiple occasions. Castro has gone 105 and 102. That's a bad comparison since those 2 literally fit what I said about Castro not hitting well enough.

He's a league average hitter who doesn't field all that well at any position. He had been "very cheap," but now he's making over 6 million. He's not useless. Just like Bader, Paddack, and Vazquez aren't useless. But their contributions can be filled by significantly cheaper assets. Or they should be able to be filled by significantly cheaper assets. Willi's contributions are really that they feel comfortable moving him all around the field. Which allows them to do the things some of us dislike in platooning like mad and trying to hit the perfect matchup decisions every night. You say he can't play CF which is why they need Bader. I don't think anyone wants him at SS for much run at all. I appreciate his utility, but it's only as valuable to the Twins as it is because of their roster management strategies. Being a league average bat that can't defend the premium positions is something, but nothing special. When you have to spend another 6 million on a guy to cover for your super utility guy because he can't actually field multiple of the positions you want him to well then he's not all that super, in my opinion. If he hit to a 110+ OPS+ and played questionable defense all over that'd be one thing. But he doesn't. His bat and glove are both easily replaceable.

I'm not. But I view the team differently than you. I don't view Bader as a "significant improvement" like you've said he is. I see him as, at best, a marginal improvement. Just like Paddack, Vazquez, and Castro are marginal improvements on what cheaper players can do. The marginal improvement strategy for multiple guys on the roster has proven to be ineffective so I want it stopped. But your argument has been that he's more than a marginal improvement but you now say you still don't think they're a good team. And at that point I question why you defend this move. What does the team get out of it if they're still bad? Why should anyone be excited for going from 75 to 76 wins? Or even from 75 to 78 wins? What use is that?