mnfireman

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/carlos-rodon-rumors-six-year-deal-free-agency.html View full rumor

This! Players/agents can hold up the market all they want, but if a player doesn't get signed, then he and his agent can claim collusion.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/giants-have-carlos-correa-as-top-option-among-free-agent-shortstops.html View full rumor

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/athletics-moving-closer-to-sean-murphy-trade-braves-considered-the-frontrunners.html View full rumor

I have no problem with the team signing Correa to a 7, 8 or 9 year, big $$$ contract. There have been other big-bodied SS who have stuck at SS and stayed productive into their mid-30's. The rest of the team will be young and affordable for the foreseeable future, Buxton is the only guaranteed contract after this coming season (not sure how Dobnak's contract works, maybe he's our Bobby Bonilla until the $1 mm buyout after the 2025 season). That being said, the onus then falls on player development, this up-coming core group needs to be better than the current core group (Kepler, Sano, Polanco, Buxton, etc...). Gray, Mahle and Maeda will need to be replaced by SWR, Varland, Winder, Balazovic and maybe Canterino and Henriquez. I would rather watch these guys struggle and develop than watch the scrap-heap hopefuls fail like has happened the last couple of seasons. Polanco, Kepler, and this years open spots will need to be replaced by Lewis, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff and eventually Lee, Miller and Rodriguez amongst others. Arraez, Gordon and Farmer are fine Utility types, but should not be out there everyday. The bullpen, while always a concern (which teams isn't?), can be taken care of with failed starters and cheap FA's (just like every other teams). Catcher will have to be addressed, but is probably not as big a problem as the posters on TD make it out to be, Houston won with Maldonado after all, while Philadelphia and Realmuto did not (I would rather have Realmuto though!!). Narvaez should be just fine, or a trade that doesn't totally empty the cupboard. So, yes, I think the Twins can sign Correa without hindering team development, all reports indicate the young players like him and he is a good clubhouse presence. The other nice, shiny toys may not be affordable, but I think the team has the places in piece to win.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/rangers-sign-jacob-degrom-to-five-year-contract.html View full rumor

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/brewers-trade-kolten-wong-mariners-jesse-winker-abraham-toro.html View full rumor

I have continued doing my homework on Toronto's catchers and their team in general. Maybe I set the ask for Moreno too high, but I think Toronto asks big for him. They have a top closer in Jordan Romero, so they don't need Duran, unless they plan on converting him to a starter, which they do need. They also need a LH batting OF after trading Teoscar Hernandez. They also have an above average Utility player in Whit Merrifield, but he will be 34 on opening day and has been trending downward since 2019. They carried 3 catchers all year in order to use Kirk at DH regularly, releasing Tyler Heineman in May and Zach Collins in September, both of whom were picked up by Pittsburgh. According to BTV (some TD posters favorite place to build trades) Moreno's median value is 53.7, Kirk's median value is 39.3, and Jansen's median value is 24.9. These values would make Jansen the most likely to be traded, but I've read where Toronto really likes him. And they don't have to trade any of them, they could carry 3 catchers and use 1 of them as the DH. I won't post all the Twins median values unless I include them in a proposed trade and I won't include Duran, Miranda or Polanco as they don't fit Toronto's current needs. Kepler (5.8) and Arraez (19.7) might get Jansen Larnach (14.6) and Mahle (11.2) might get Jansen Arraez (19.7) and Gray (6.1) might get Jansen Kepler (5.8) and Ober (19.5) might get Jansen Kepler(5.8), Thielbar (13.4) and Gray (6.1) or Gordon (6.7) might get Jansen Kirilloff (11.9) and Mahle (11.2) and Jax (.7), Lopez (.7), or Pagan (0) might get Jansen Kepler (5.8), Arraez (19.7) and Mahle (11.2) might get Kirk (might have to add Jax, Pagan, or Lopez ) Larnach (14.6), Arraez (19.7) and Gray (6.1) might get Kirk Kirilloff (11.9), Arraez (19.7) and Mahle (11.2) might get Kirk (Twins lose 2/3s of 1B options) Arraez (19.7) Thielbar (13.4) and Gray (6.1) or Gordon (6.7) might get Kirk Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6) and Jax (.7), Lopez (.7) or Pagan (0) (or 2 of the 3) might get Kirk Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6) and Arraez (19.7) might get Moreno Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6), Kirilloff (11.9) and Gordon (6.7) might get Moreno There are many more possible combinations, but these are enough to show that it will take a lot to get 1 of the Toronto catchers.

I'm thinking Toronto values him at pretty close to his actual worth, and will then ask for a little more as is their right...

Moreno isn't the starter yet and he put up a .733 OPS as a 22 yr old. Jansen put up a .640 OPS as a starter in 2019....

Guess who?? Right-handed OF vs LHP 2022; Player A slash line: 82 PA - .243/.305/.500 .805 OPS 6 HR 12 RBI - 31 yrs old on opening day. Player B slash line: 71 PA - .246/.338/.426 .764 OPS 3 HR 7 RBI - 32 yrs old on opening day. Player C Slash line: 100 PA - .264/.320/.495 .815 OPS 6 HR 22 RBI - 32 yrs old on opening day. Pretty much the same player, but 1 of them will cost league minimum, 2 of them will cost Millions.

I'd think Toronto would start the conversation by asking for Lee, Duran and possibly Arraez, Gordon or Kirilloff. Are you willing to go that big??

Reports say that if Toronto deals a catcher it would most likely be Jansen. He'll be 28 shortly after opening day, but still under team control until 2025. Moreno was their top prospect and made his debut last year, and I'm sure the Twins don't have the prospects/players to make a deal for him.

I was wrong about when he went on the IL, he played 79 games in 2021. Also found this on mlb.com; Rookie Eligibility Definition A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons): • 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues. • 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List). A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists. So, Lewis maintains his rookie status.

He was on the major league roster, therefore on the major league disabled list, thus accruing major league service time.

Per Baseball=Reference: Rookie Status: Exceeded rookie limits during 2021 season

FTFY

Well, according to Fan Graph's, Buxton's on-field performance in 2021 & 2022 was worth $65 MM vs actual paycheck value of $14.3 MM. If Buxton continues to produce as he has, even with injuries, he will far out-produce the contract he signed, actual value + ALL incentives. Yes, it seems like a lot of $$$ for a guy who misses big chunks of games, but his on-field production makes his value very high. But he and the team need to figure out how to keep him on the field for about 145-150 games.

He does not need to be extended, if he wants to get paid he needs to perform and will be rewarded with high arbitration salaries. The Twins get his best years and maintain payroll flexibility if he gets injured or doesn't perform.

Several teams are looking at catcher's, I'm sure his agents are trying to maximize his value. Next week should take care of his market.