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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    My patience with the new FO is getting pretty thin. They took over a team with a ton of young stars on it, a great park and tons of payroll room. They haven't done anything to help the on-field product at all. For the playoff drive, they sold off players for a pretty thin return. They kept Molly as manager when it was clear he should've been let go. Now we're seeing them punt on another season unless the players force their hand. Part of this could be the fact that ownership is horrible as well. But at the end of the day, this team could have added Machado had they wanted to (they have the money) and he would've been a big part of 2019 and 2022. The FO has refused to add talent and has instead shuffled around for marginal pieces.
  2. gunnarthor
    Unfortunately, his bat really doesn't play anywhere else. Didn't Josmil Pinto have this problem a few years ago?
  3. gunnarthor
    Oh, hell yeah. People were done with Morneau in April 2006. The big stat at the time was OPS+ and Morneau had just one season where he topped that and in 2005 he posted a 93 OPS+ at age 24. 2006 started even worse. Fans had absolutely given up on him. He had over 1000 ml at-bats by then. Gardy benched him for a few games to get his head straight. The ESPN boards were full of Twins fans wanting to trade him for Wiggenton on the Rays, who started red-hot that year. But a lot of fans were ready to trade him for a bag-o-balls. As for Buxton/Dozier, it was Buxton and it wasn't close. Dozier out-hit him slightly (.291/.382/.557 to .309/.358/.538) but Buxton amassed something like 5 WAR in the second half of the year and nearly tripled Dozier in WPA.
  4. gunnarthor
    We're not even close to knowing how good the new FO's trades have been but I don't think they've made any great trades yet. Palacios for Odorizzi? Gil for Cave, maybe? Obviously it's too early to worry about the July deadline trades last year but I remember looking at the 2017 trades and they didn't hold up all that well in hindsight. And we've traded/released assets for basically nothing (Burdi, Chargois, Goodrum) or salary relief (Comp pick). Way too early to praise the new FO on this front.
  5. gunnarthor
    My fear is that the new FO is waiting for their prospect group to come up and are more or less willing to punt the Sano/Buxton core unless the players force their hand.
  6. gunnarthor
    If there was ever a year to go all-in, it's now. Tons of cap room. A bunch of young core players on the ML roster to build around. But, no. This FO will have the same handcuffs the previous FO's had. Bottom third in payroll again.
  7. gunnarthor
    This feels like a stand pat deal - which goes with what the FO has been claiming anyways. They're aren't going to make the big needed deals until they see what they have in Sano and Buxton.* But this team could've made better moves to improve the MI. Not a big fan of this move. *Then they won't be able to make big deals b/c they have to save the money for Sano and Buxton.
  8. gunnarthor
    I'd listen on Kepler but there's another scenario that might work out even better. Kepler stays and his babip regresses to the norm. He posts a .274/.369/.458 127 OPS+ line (that's the same iso walk/slg with a .50 pt avg improvement) and Kiriloff dominates high minors pitching. Now Kepler is a much better trade piece.
  9. gunnarthor
    It's my fault. I bought some stocks and that usually sends the market into a spin. My apologies.
  10. gunnarthor
    Buxton has always hit above .200 except in 90 at bats last year. A lot of your comments were made 12 years ago about Morneau. Fans were ready to ride him out of town for Ty Wigginton. He started 2006 so cold - 50 games into the season he was hitting .240/.300/.464 and his career OPS+ was below 100. He hit .357/.408/.601 from there and won the MVP that year. Generally, talent wins out. There are exceptions and injuries can derail careers, too. But with players as talented as Buxton, the talent shows up. He was probably the best player in baseball the second half of 2017 and if he stays healthy, he can be that guy again. Way too much concern over an injury wrecked season.
  11. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I probably went overboard with the Molina reference. He's not that slow. That said, bWAR did not like his defense at all last year.
  12. gunnarthor
    Santana is not the answer. He's slower than a Molina at this point. He's a DH only now. He posted a 105 OPS+ last year while playing in the bandbox that is CBP. His wOBA was actually the exact same as Robbie Grossman and they basically had the same WAR despite Santana getting 150 more PA. His numbers have been trending south for several years. They can get Nelson Cruz without making a trade. Cruz is better and his contract would likely be less than what Santana is making now.
  13. gunnarthor
    No, it means they were willing to take the job knowing that they'd be in this situation.
  14. gunnarthor
    We have 25+ years of Pohlad ownership. It doesn't matter who the GM is, this is going to be a bottom third payroll team. That's why they hired Falvey and Levine in the first place.
  15. gunnarthor
    Buxton was a 5 WAR player a year ago and Sano was an all-star. I'd put the blame a lot more on Molitor and his staff and assume that the new manager has a few ideas about this. There simply is too much talent in those two guys to assume they'll bust.
  16. gunnarthor
    This isn't surprising, just depressing. It doesn't matter who the GM is, ownership isn't going to open up the payroll. We have literally $0 on the books for 2020 but 30m/yr for Machado isn't even possible to discuss. I'm really not surprised but, gah. I don't know if there will ever be a safer blue chip FA option than him. We'll go into the year with a payroll around 110-120 and we're going to have to see the young core play better. FA is going to be adding fringe parts but not difference makers. It is what it is. Payroll currently sits at about 71. We could add Cruz on something like 2/32m and still add some relief arms. Cruz would really help the team, both for his bat but also for his mentoring. I'd like him to talk to Sano about being an all around hitter.
  17. gunnarthor
    wOBA tries to fix those differences.
  18. gunnarthor
    It's amazing how much Machado would fit this team. We could use him at short for one year and let Sano man third and Polanco second while Gordon gets one more year under him before we shift Sano across the diamond. And his bat is everything we need. So we won't even be in on the conversation. Sometimes I hate this team. I still want the Twins to upgrade the DH spot. I think we should just bring in a big bat like Nelson Cruz on a two year deal. On the pitching side, I'd talk to our scouts and look into Dylan Bundy. He had a hellish season in Baltimore but everyone did. Gausman looked better after he left (although he went to the NL). But Baltimore is clearly rebuilding and Bundy could be a nice get to fit in with Berrios for the next three years and he won't cost Lewis or Kiriloff. Lastly, I do expect the Twins to see if there's a market for Kepler and let Cave/Wade hold RF for a season until Kiriloff comes up. I know the Rays were interested in him last year and there are a few NL teams that could use a RFer.
  19. gunnarthor
    Last year was incredibly slow, too.
  20. gunnarthor
    If Rosario is going to be moved to the IF, I think it would be third at this point.
  21. gunnarthor
    The Twins are probably relying on a bunch of obp coming from players already on the roster. Buxton's 2017 started so impossibly bad but he hit .274/.335/.448 from the end of April on. That would be a big improvement over last year's CFers who posted a .293 OBP. Twins are probably hoping that Sano gets back to the .350 OBP guy he was his first three years with us. Kepler has pretty good walk rates (and power, too) but his babip is criminally low. If he can get his babip closer to .300, his OBP will look pretty respectable. But, realistically, the Twins are building the offense around these guys and these guys need to step up, like Polanco and Rosario have. They can make some moves around the margins but unless they are going to spend more than the Pohlad's have ever indicated before, the significant change is going to be with those three guys. Also, I think we should sign Cruz to DH.
  22. gunnarthor
    I wonder what the difference is between Sano and Kepler and Grossman. I can see one difference off the top of my head. Twins should stay clear of Cano.
  23. gunnarthor
    I sorta assume it's a moment thing but you're right, maybe the new baseball doesn't require a Giambi-type first baseman anymore. But I'm going to hope he can stay healthy and stick behind the plate.
  24. gunnarthor
    Derek Dietrich at second seems to make some sense. Fangraphs says his defense at second isn't horrible. He's still arb eligible, I think. Obviously, he strikes out a ton, doesn't walk a lot, isn't a great fit defensively, will be 29. But if he could turn in another 2016 type season ...
  25. gunnarthor
    I don't think he has the bat for first.
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