gunnarthor

2011. I remember arguing that the 2010 team didn't have any obvious "career seasons" and there was room for some improvement. Sure, Morneau's 187 OPS+ wasn't sustainable over a full season but a full season of his prime would be better than 2010. Cuddy and Kubel both had lower OPS+ than expected. Young was finally breaking out and we should expect more to come. I expected a little regression from Valencia but he was a solid MLer at that point and Hudson was going to be replaced by an MVP! And it looked like Liriano was finally back and Pavano was a solid vet behind him in the rotation. -sigh-

I think the problem is, again, while nearly every move is defensible, and so is their draft strategy (at least, arguably defensible), it's not working. The list of "didn't work" is growing pretty long with this FO.

While I like the returns for Cruz and Berrios, that's obviously not a "what went right" discussion since we had to flop to move those two. I'd put Polanco and Donaldson on the what went right from our lineup guys. And Garver looked good when healthy as has Buxton. In the minors, Miranda looks great, as Bean noted, and I'm a little excited about Cabbage's play, admittedly, I've always overvalued him but I really hopes he makes it. Balazovic continued to look good as did Winder when healthy. And on the young guys side, Ober looks like he can pitch in the majors and while Jax doesn't, it was impressive what he was able to do with all the time lost over the years. Kiriloff will be a solid MLer. Maybe not a constant all-star but he should be a solid, middle of the order bat for years to come.

The Yankees won the trade but that doesn't necessarily mean it was a "bad" trade for us. Unless the prospect flames out, usually you lose a trade where you send a guy with more years of control for a vet. But were there better internal options or low value free agents? Cave was cheap, was this a cost based move? But the number of defensible but didn't work out as envisioned moves by this FO is certainly growing.

Nice article! I've mentioned this before but I have a friend who is an international scout for the Royals. He pushed heavily for them to sign Whitefield but they didn't. He sent me a text the day he signed with the Twins telling me that we got a nice little player with upside. When he made the majors, he told me his bosses sent him a congratulatory note as well.

That short video of Petty was something. Long ways to go but no reason not to be excited about him.

In this last season, Miranda and Balazovic have really been exciting for us. I'm a bit surprised miranda isn't up yet. Hopefully, Balazovic and Ryan are solid ML starters for us for a long time.

There's a different thread for stock tips!

I think Mike and Bean are about right. He's a real ML quality pitcher, which is in tragically short supply around here. He'll have some great games and some duds. He's not as good as Berrios but in his career season, he could be an all-star. COVID pushed back his debut so that's a big problem, he's still got to go through the ups and downs of adjusting to the majors. I love that he pitches quickly. As to how valuable he'll be, I think that depends on the Twins pitching philosophy. It seems like he could be a 200 inning pitcher but the Twins might want him to be a 130-150 inning pitcher.

I think Nick's plan is probably something we will likely see and mean that we're a 70 win team next year. 1) Ober and Pineda have combined for 33 starts, about 160 innings, and 1.6 WAR. Unless we expect a significant improvement and health from both of them next year, those are back of the rotation pitchers. 2) I can see why Nick suggested the names he did, it sounds like a very Twins move. Corey Kluber (36 next year, 1.2 WAR in 11 starts this year), Charlie Morton (38 next year, career year this year), Alex Cobb (34 next year, 1.2 WAR in 15 starts this year), Andrew Heaney (80 ERA+ this season) are not #2/3 pitchers. They are 4/5 type pitchers and there's a lot of risk. Twins can't win if the best they have are 4/5 type pitchers. 3) I'm all for trading Kepler and Arraez to get pitching. I'm not sure the Twins are good at identifying pitching but we pretty much have to do this. Also, I think it's time for TD to stop fawning over Maeda's 11 random starts for the Twins in 2020 in a weird season. He's now given us 32 starts at 109 ERA+, 173ip, 1.8 WAR. That's solid but those aren't numbers you want from someone you expect to be a 2/3 starter (which he isn't). 4) Dobnak. For the life of me, I cannot understand this FO's infatuation with Dobnak. Great story and all, and I'm glad he will make millions off the Twins, but he's a really bad pitcher. Playoff teams don't rely on Dobnaks.

I meant better career from the trade date. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Graterol surpassed Maeda's career WAR (either b-r or fangraphs). It's mostly a question of innings. But as you know from this past off-season, I was the low man on Maeda even before this season. Still, I think the trade made sense for both teams. (I also see that someone remembered that we threw in a draft pick. I had forgotten that. That's two picks this FO has traded away. I hate that.)

My guess is that Graterol will have the better career. He's also the better talent. So in that regard, the dodgers probably will "win" the trade. But the trade made sense. Certainly not the worst move the FO made.

He may be our staff ace but that's b/c the staff is a joke. He's getting called up in Sept of his 25th year. By the same time, Berrios was a two time all star and had made nearly 100 ML starts. I think Ryan will be a real ML pitcher and capable of staying up in the majors. But he won't be as good as Berrios. He's a solid back of the rotation pitcher. Which we need.

Good news. I'm happy to watch him.

Eh. Doesn't really do much to pretend that the success (or failure) you want to ignore doesn't exist. We can also pretend his 2015 didn't skew his numbers down and now he averages 5.5 WAR. I think Buxton's one of the truly elite players in the game. A genuine HOF talent, when healthy. Since mid 2017, even with the total disaster year of 2018, Buxton has been put up a .272/.350/.528 .879 OPS. While this year has been his high water mark, his has shown that he can put up a constant OPS in the high .800s, play pretty good defense, and steal a base or two. You don't think he'll ever be healthy. You might be right. Baseball will be worse off for that. I think his talent is worth betting on.

Here's my thinking. First, Buxton is not just the Twins best player, he is a truly elite talent in a sport where you don't have many. For his career, he's averaged over 5 WAR for 162 games. Second, the Twins can afford him. Fans have been conditioned for years to accept that the Twins are a small payroll team, that they can only afford so much, that paying Mauer hampered their options. It's all BS. The Twins are loaded and have, like all teams, refused to share their books with the player's association. It's insulting that the management has allowed fans to believe that players should give "home town discounts" or blame players for payroll crunches. Even if we believed the FO spin on payroll, the team spent years, decades even, playing under the potential high payroll while they were reloading, rebuilding, etc. They have never spent a similar period of time over their expected payroll. Fans should demand they do. Third, historically, MLB teams that trade away truly elite talent usually lose those trades. This isn't a Liriano for Escobar trade. This is getting rid of a HOF talented level player in his prime. So I don't really understand anything other than "sign him and keep him." Sure, he might get injured. Maybe. That's the risk. But it's just money at this point. Money the team has and should be using to put the best product they can on the field.

There were a few who were didn't like the Ynoa trade at the time, Ben being the biggest, IIRC. I was ok with Gil for Cave but I expected the Twins would be able to make more starters. I was wrong.

Yeah, not a lot to disagree with here. The offense is, or at least very close to, playoff caliber. The Twins 108 OPS+ is fourth in the AL and fifth in MLB. But the pitching. There really isn't a lot of encouraging news here. I really think the only way they can compete is to buy a pitching staff through FA next year. Which I don't think we'll do.

IIRC, there was some talk about bringing him up in 2016 but he might not have been on the 40 man? And then there was more talk in 17-18 but control issues kept him down? (they also might have kicked around the idea of using him as an opener?) I remember he was exposed to the rule v and no one took him. I'm not sure this is a "mistake" on the Twins staff. Reed is 28 and has 10 ML innings. I'm glad he's getting his chance. Reed was always a guy on the cusp of being on the 40 man, probably a classic AAAA-guy for many. It's hard for those guys to get a shot, especially if they have a demonstrable issue at AAA (in his case, control). I think the obvious times to bring him up would have been sometime in 16-18 (just by looking at his stats). In 15, he had been bumped up to AA where he struggled. He did better in AA in 16 and was promoted to AAA near the end of the season, which I assume was why he didn't get to the majors in a lost season. In 17, he had some good numbers in AAA but (IIRC) he also missed some time with injuries and the ML team's bullpen was solid enough. In 18, he was off the 40 man (IIRC) and control issues became more apparent. And then in 19, our pen was outstanding without him. Hard to bring him up.

I'm positive the FO will trade him this offseason but I really don't want them to. He's one of the few difference makers talent-wise in the game.

Honestly, outside of Kiriloff, none of these guys has to be kept. None were/are highly regarded prospects. Some are getting pretty long in the tooth. I suspect there will be many comparable arms looking for jobs in the offseason. None of these guys should be a priority. The FO has to fix the bullpen and a few of these guys might fit into their plan (scary thought) but I would be surprised if we kept more than two of them, counting Kiriloff.

The Twins aren't going to release Rooker. He's a first round pick of this FO with options left and immense power. Gordon will be released.

First amendment has nothing to do with his future with the Twins.

Good piece, Stu. I agree, it's time for Simmons to go.

I'm glad these three are making the most of their opportunities and I really hope they become solid ML pitchers. But, realistically, if the FO is planning for our rotation to be something of Maeda, Pineda, Jax, Dobnak, Ryan, Ober and Barnes -like arms next year, we won't have a winning record. They need to start developing more Berrios and better pitchers. But, again, good on them for the hard work and using the opportunity they've been given.