gunnarthor

Brees is just one. Since 2012, here are the QBs taken in the first round. I'm certainly no NFL expert but it seems to me the bust ratio on these guys is higher than it should be and many (not all) were probably thrust into starting roles before they were ready. Also, some of them were selected by the Browns. But I also could be mistaken. Maybe this is a normal curve but there don't seem to be as many difference maker QBs drafted in the first round as one would think, based on the total number of picks. But i could be wrong. Andrew Luck - he was good. Robert Griffin - lots of issues here. End of the day, he made 42 NFL starts. Ryan Tennehill - honestly, I have no idea how one would rate him. Brandon Weeden - Cleveland. The Browns gave up on him after his rookie season, IIRC. EJ Manuel - Buffalo gave up on him pretty fast after making him a rookie starter. Blake Bortels - Third overall pick, never developed like they hoped. Jonny Manziel - Cleveland. Again, lots of issues. But a bust. Teddy Bridgewater - Started the last 12 games for the Vikes, wasn't bad, wasn't great. Injured. Still in football. Jameis Winston - still in football, didn't seem to live up to expectations. Marcus Mariota - still in football, didn't seem to live up to expectations. Jared Goff - only played in 7 games rookie season. Seemed to be amazing. Probably a good pick. Carson Wentz - Not sure how to rate him. Paxton Lynch - I have no idea who he was. 4 starts and is out of football. Mitch Trubisky - I mean, he's still in the league but ... Patrick Mahomes - he's pretty good. Deshaun Watson - he's pretty good on the field and got a huge trade to Cleveland. Baker Mayfield - Cleveland. Was ok for a few moments, still in the league is a positive. Josh Allen - he's pretty good. Josh Rosen - not as good. Arizona basically gave up on him after one year. He's on our practice squad. Lamar Jackson - he's pretty good. Kyler Murray - he got a huge contract so Arizona isn't giving up on him. Daniel Jones - again, not really sure how one ranks him. Dwayne Haskins - Washington had him and got rid of him after two years. Died tragically. Joe Burrow - he's pretty good. Tua Tagovailoa - he's pretty good. Justin Herbert - he's pretty good. That 2020 draft class is looking pretty good. Jordon Love - doesn't play much. Trevor Lawrence - I mean, he's started a lot but I think he's underachieving a lot. Zach Wilson - Jets are ready to give up on him already. Trey Lance - hurt but SF wanted to make him their guy, so ...? Justin Fields - I don't like that he plays for Chicago. Mac Jones - another not sure how I'd rate him.

I've actually been pondering this for a while. People get better at what they do. In everything. Folks forget that the Stockton/Malone Jazz looked over the hill long before they started making NBA finals. They got better. Belicheck failed at Cleveland. He got better. So can't Falvine get better? I liked Terry Ryan but I also tend to ignore that his first waive of young guys sucked. Cordova, Becker, Stahoviach? Without going to baseball refeernce, I think that was the group. They floundered. So Ryan got back at it and tried again. And his next wave(s) were awesome. All of our success in the 2000s is because he got better at his job. So, don't Falvey deserve some of that same patience? I'm not sure "deserve" is the right word but if they are getting the chance to learn, maybe they are getting better. I loved the last few drafts. Petty, Miller, Lee, Preilipp. There wasn't a lot of that overthinking it. They just grabbed some real talent. I do think Falvine has failed so far. But I'm hopeful that they also learned while failing so they can not fail going forward. Those two drafts - and the Berrios* and Ryan trades - suggest some growth. The 2021-2022 product suggests they have not. * (Berrios trade doesn't happen in the first place if the FO hadn't failed so much before then.)

I really hope the Jets are dumb enough to waive Wilson. We can grab him and let him learn for a season behind Cousins.* I don't get these teams that draft young QBs (Wilson is still only 23!). Admittedly, guys like Herbert and Burrow look amazing from day 1 but, generally, unless they are a HOF caliber freak (Manning, Allen), they usually struggle if thrown in the fire. The Chargers gave up on Drew Brees. The NFL is just too hard for a young QB to just step in. The learning curve is too much. Mahomes sat on the bench and learned his rookie year. Rodgers and Brady sat for multiple years. That's what should have happened to Wilson. You have too many examples now of those who have sunk to blame it all on the players. A guy like Wilson, who went to BYU, is going to be overwhelmed. Add in the pressure of NY? Cripes. He's probably having daily panic attacks. *Note, I don't actually know how what the Vikes would have to pay him or how it would affect the cap.

Also, there seems to be two different issues in this. 1) Is Ryan part of the pipeline? Sure, in the sense that we traded for him and he was young and fits in. Sure. That's how a pipeline should be built. Trades, rule v, waivers, international signings, drafts. All are valid ways to build a pipeline. 2) Does the FO get credit for Ryan? Sure, in the sense that they identified a solid pitcher that they could acquire who fits. But no, they don't get credit for "developing" that pitcher into a ML pitcher. That difference really only matters when it comes to the question of, "can the Twins develop young pitching?" Ryan is not evidence that they can develop pitching.

Because that pipeline - and I agree that it doesn't matter how they acquired them - kept the team competitive every year (one sub-.500 season) from 01-10 without having to rely on free agents (for the decade, less than 80 starts, IIRC, by free agents not named Radke). That's what the current pipeline has to do. Everything else is white noise. We don't have a pipeline, right now, that can keep us competitive. Mike asked what a pipeline should look like. That's the answer.

Santana went back to the minors where he developed his change up after his rule v year. The twins acquired Liriano when he was 19, I believe, and spent a few years on top 100 prospects for us. I have no problem with the pipeline being developed in any method. Trades, rule v, waiver wire, drafts, international signings, are all ways to develop the pipeline. I liked the Ryan trade. But the pipeline, right now, is really bad. Your opinion can be different.

I just don't agree with you and a lot of your opinions are not that defensible. The main argument I have though is that you think a lot of very, very unproven arms should be categorized as "good pitchers" now. Ober, Varland, SWR, Winder? They are all unproven and, mostly outside of TD, not well regarded by national sources. Why do you think they'll be better than guys like Gil, Ynoa, Stewart, etc? And a lot of your argument is just hyperbole. We traded Chase Petty for a number 2 pitcher? OK. Of all pitchers who topped 100 innings last year, Gray was 56th in WAR. That's a #2? Fine. I mean, he's a solid pitcher but he wouldn't have been the #2 starter on many playoff rotations. But they have had a lot of time to create a pipeline and nothing has come from it. They traded off arms like Gil and Ynoa - both of whom are coming off TJ surgery but have fans on playoff caliber teams - and were unable to develop the few top 100 pitchign prospects they inherited. Enlow, Leach (who they claimed were both first round talents) have been busts. SWR continued his descent down prospect rankings after we signed him. But, to answer your question - what should a pipeline look like? The answer is the Twins of the 2000s. In that decade, less than 10% of all starts were made by FA signings (and that COUNTS Radke's resigning.) They developed an ace (Santana) and had a ton of real, ML quality arms behind him that constantly came up and pitched. We don't have a Santana in our system but we also don't have a Radke, Liriano, Baker, Garza, Milton, Silva, Slowey, etc. We have a few that might be as good as Blackburn (who gave us two back to back 200ip, 2WAR seasons). But we knew what we had - we'd get ML quality pitchers who could throw strikes and keep the team in the game. Right now, I have no idea what the pipeline is intended to even create. Starting pitchers? Or do we want a bunch of two-pitch pitchers who can be cogs in a bullpen and go up and down to AAA as the team needs?

Again, they inherited a pretty solid system. They had more top 100 prospects then then now. I'm not sure how much "success" you should give guys like Miranda, Ober, and Jax (who were all acquired before they got here). Yeah, they are MLers but we have yet to see if they are fringe players, bench players, reliable starters, or better. That said, I like Miranda a lot. Arraez (also acquired before they got here) is a success. I have no idea why you think SWR or Varland are likely successes. I think things like this are way you and I just differ. Jeffers has been a bad MLer. Yeah, they get credit for trading for Ryan but they didn't develop him. And trading away Petty for Gray might come back to haunt us since we apparently have concerns about pitchers topping 80 innings now. But I'm sure Petty's grateful to be out of here. Also, they have Martin and SWR because they failed to keep our window of opportunity open. Yeah, great, you added young players whose stock continued to fall b/c you couldn't keep the Twins competitive. Not really ready to give them a lot of credit for that. And not sure why you think Larnich or Wallner. They are already 26 and 25 years old. They have yet to show they can handle ML pitching, let alone be good ML players. Right now, most of this FO's trades have been bad. Most of their drafts have been bad. They've failed to augment the nucleus they had. They failed to create a pitching pipeline despite now having more time to do so that Ryan was allowed. Maybe they'll get better. Who knows. I loved the Lee pick. I think Julien is another fun surprise for us. But I don't see any hope in the pitching department. I don't see a well assembled team. It's a mashup of players who don't quite feel right together.

I bailed and did Christmas shopping so I missed pretty much everything. I was in a Mills Fleet Farm and they had KFAN on and I listened to the overtime kick by Joseph. Wow. Anyhow, lost in all this, it looks like Osborn had a heck of a game. Would be really nice if that break out is for real.

I just think this is wildly optimistic. This is a bad team and we've subtracted from it. If healthy, it's still a bad team. Pitching is an absolute mess with no plans to fix it. We're going to keep running out starters for 4-5 innings, and then hope our bullpen can keep the Twins in the game. They won't. They aren't just one move away. I suspect that there are philosophical issues that will keep them from building a competent pitching pipeline, they don't know how to spend in free agency, and they usually are on the losing side of trades. Even if we add Lopez, we're still probably a sub-.500 team.

I'm ok with going for it but you need a better call. Our oline is not designed to make upthe middle

Uff-da. Don't like either of those calls

The defense is just wrong. Like half the players are designed for a 4-3 and are playing out of position.

Honestly, Gallo and Sano are pretty obvious comparables. I'd rather take a chance on Sano - whose teammates seemed to like quite a bit - then Gallo who, as noted, is left handed.

Yep, I like Boras. Labor over management!

I'm going to post something really stupid, apologies in advance. My kids watched a Scooby Doo movie called "Trick or Treat Scooby-Doo!." It was cute and early in the movie they played Ballroom Blitz by the band Sweet. (You've absolutely heard it). So I thought, 'hey, nice soundtrack. Didn't expect that from a Scooby Doo movie.' Then later in the movie they play this clearly new wave song that I couldn't place. Drove me nuts. I was trying to guess the singer, couldn't quite get it. I asked my wife and she said, "yeah, no idea but sure sounds like new wave." Turns out it was original and made for Scooby Doo.

It would really be nice if we had a pitching pipeline about now.

I mean, I hope you're right but I think it's mostly wishful thinking rather than reality. Besides what I highlight below, the other big problem this staff has is a complete lack of upside. I like Gray. He is a real ML pitcher. But he'll be 33 next year and was only allowed to throw 119 innings last year and still managed a 2.5 WAR. I don't think anyone can reasonably expect him to have more of an impact next year. Same with Ryan. Yes, he was a rookie but he was an old rookie. He's a solid back of the rotation type. That's not bad but that's what he is. Maeda will be 35 and is a bullpen arm at this point, maybe better than Jax, but he's not going to save the pen. I like Mahle but he has a shoulder injury. What's a realistic best case scenario for him? Matching Grey's innings and value last year? I'd take that. Winder is 26. He was not good in the majors. He's never been a top 100 prospect. Sure, he could break out more but, realistically, it's hard to believe he'd be better than Ryan as a best case scenario. Ober will be 27. Again, never highly regarded, very few innings, injury history. Do we think he's more than Ryan? Isn't it more likely that both Winder and Bailey just don't make it? And I doubt they have the permission to pitch a lot of innings. I like SWR but his velocity is a question mark and scouts didn't like him down the stretch. Paddack is already a cost-controllable back of the rotation arm coming back from TJ surgery and hasn't had an ERA+ above 100 since his rookie season. Last year, the four of them made 28 starts and combined to throw 150 innings worth .9 WAR. I'm sure 1 of the 4 will be a fun surprise but I'm also sure 1 of the 4 will be really bad, because that's how these things work. So, realistic best case, what do we have? (And, isn't it more likely that the FO trades Grey or Maeda at the deadline?) Grey 119 ip 2.5 WAR Mahle 119 ip 2.5 WAR Ryan 150 ip, 2. 5 WAR Ober/Paddack/Winder/SWR combined - 200 ip, 1 WAR? Maeda - 80 ip, 1 WAR? That means the team has to find another 750 or so innings from elsewhere. Don't see how they can find it, especially since they need to be able to move arms up and down to AAA as needed.

I haven't posted much lately mostly because of work but also because the Twins are in a giant hole. There isn't a single move that fixes things. There isn't a "squint and things are ok" view left anymore. This is a bad team, poorly designed, with an incredibly bad pitching staff. They have some reason for optimism offensively, even without Correa. But the staff is so bad that they are doomed to another sub-.500 season and an aging core of hitters. The FO failed. There really isn't much left to do for 2023. If the Twins were smart, they'd try to build around Lewis, Lee, Martin and next year's pick. Trade Arraez to (say) Toronto for pitching, trade Kepler to clear room in the OF. See if there is a market for Polanco and let our young MI have auditions to play SS/2B. I like Julien a lot. But the Twins have almost no pitching. Most of our arms are the AAAA type. We have to find a lot of innings somehow but I don't see how we do it.

I gotta say, I'm enjoying this season a lot, even though I know they won't win the super bowl. The Packers suck, we'll probably be the 2 or 3 seed. Outside of Philly, no team is complete. Jefferson is fun to watch, Darrisaw looked really good before his injury. I like the new TE. That we're winning when the defense is this bad is nice.

With this FO, it would be par for the course if Spencer Steer has the best season next year.

Welcome Brock. I've been waiting for you to join the club for some time now. Glad you're on the team.

Unreal

It's Detroit. We could lose but it's unlikely

Cripes, that's scary.