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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Rosario, Stewart, Berrios ... Kepler? Polanco? Eades? ... I don't know, I think May and Pinto could be in our top 10 now after Hicks, Arcia and Gibson got promoted.
  2. gunnarthor
    I think Vargas, Kepler, Darnell and Polanco would be added for sure. Beresford and Ortiz depending on how much room they have. I'm not sure how many spots they'll have. Let's see. Twins currently have 42 men on the 40 man roster. Next year Hermsen, Pelfrey, Wood, Butera, Morneau, Ramirez and Thomas can all be easily removed, plus a few more if needed. Shouldn't have too much trouble finding room for the guys they want to keep.
  3. gunnarthor
    I guess. I suppose you'll be banned now. Nice knowing you.
  4. gunnarthor
    I think the implication was that he seemed to be suggesting that the Twins are only as good as they are b/c they played the White Sox and Brewers and couldn't beat better teams. Reading his actual post at his cite, I think he was more celebrating that the Twins were beating up on those two teams then anything else.
  5. gunnarthor
    What happened to drjim's post that read:
  6. gunnarthor
    I think you're comparing apples to oranges. We had a different GM in 2011. Ryan has been known to make trades in seasons like this - he made a bunch of them in the 90s and he also traded Castillo in 2007 when the Twins had a winning record and were 7 games back. He's a realist. He's not afraid to make trades we he has the opportunity and he hasn't been bullied into making bad ones. The Twins didn't have to make any moves at the deadline last year. The best rumor out there for Willingham was a #4 type starter - Sean Gilmartin was floated around a bit. So, he didn't see a deal he liked so he kept Span and Willingham and Burton and he might make another move this deadline or this offseason.
  7. gunnarthor
    That seems a bit harsh, they're 8-9 against Bal, Boston and Texas (with a positive run differential). That's not too bad. 20-20 outside the AL central. 33-34 against every team except KC.
  8. gunnarthor
    If he comes back healthy and still needs innings, I imagine they'll send him to the AFL. I'm ok with a cautious approach in bringing him back.
  9. gunnarthor
    I kind of felt the same way as CMB but then Shipley fell to #15 in this last draft, Appel fell to 8 in 2012 and Russell fell to 11. In 2011, Fernandez went 11, Bradley went 7 (seriously loaded draft). Sale went #13 in 2010 and so on. The draft is so unpredictable that the Twins should get a good player regardless if their scouts are doing their job. The elite talent will go in the first few spots but there usually isn't more than 3-4 elite players in a draft and we can't lose enough to catch up with a top 4 spot. My guess is the Twins won't finish with the 11th worst record. My guess is they'll finish around 7 or 8 and I do think Ryan will make several deadline trades. (I think the Twins are better than the White Sox, Seattle, Houston, Miami, Mets and Cubs for sure. After that, it's closer). (Oh, and I wanted Stewart over Gray).
  10. gunnarthor
    Nice night. They have to bring up Gibson now. He's been consistent enough. Really nice to see that start from Baxendale. I'd love for him to turn into a real pitcher for us.
  11. gunnarthor
    Mayo's added to his list but he doesn't update his write ups. That write up was written before the season and was a pretty fair industry opinion. I agree he should (and on the draft board as well) but he doesn't. I'm not sure how much he puts into his re-rankings. I think Meyer moved up about 10 spots but I can't remember where he originally had these guys ranked.
  12. gunnarthor
    Might depend on what we mean by pretty rare but I don't think it's so rare as to be a surprise. Obviously, players will wash out at every level even after dominating the one below it. Just looking at one random year in the EL - 1996 - and 17 guys had OPS over .850. 5 didn't make the majors and 3 of them didn't really hit well at AAA. That's a low percentage but that's still about 17% of hitters didn't make the jump to AAA well. I have no idea if one league in one year is representative but I think it shows it happens enough that it's not a surprise.
  13. gunnarthor
    I hope you're right. I have my doubts - they don't draft Boras guys at all - but we'll see. I'd be interested to know if they had a guy like Stewart ranked ahead of Appel.
  14. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure if this has been posted elsewhere but Mayo at mlb.com updates his top 100 throughout the year and removes players when they lose their prospect status, so Hicks (for example) is no longer listed. Anyhow, his new updated top 100 still includes 6 Twins because he's moved Rosario in at #99. Oops, here's the link: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=min
  15. gunnarthor
    I wonder what happens if they have a couple Boras clients sitting there at #4? I sure don't want them to pass on Bryant or Appel b/c of him.
  16. gunnarthor
    On the current 2013 pecking order, he was easily behind Willingham, Parmelee, Hicks, Doumit, Arcia, Maestro, Thomas, Ramirez, Herrmann and Colabello. Probably Richardson, too. Keep in mind that this was Benson's last option year so he had to be on the 25 man roster next year, as the 4th or 5th OFer. So he'd have to have jumped several guys while hoping guys below him didn't continue to pass him. And for what he gives you, I think a guy like Antoin Richardson could hold down the fort just as well. The Twins have several good to great OF prospects in the pipeline, too. The only way it becomes relatively difficult to replace Benson is if you think he can quickly become more than a replacement level major leaguer. I don't even think he can be that.
  17. gunnarthor
    You use big words in your libations.
  18. gunnarthor
    The reality is, most teams have AAAA/journey men at the end of their 40 man rosters. There isn't that much talent around baseball. The Orioles made the playoffs with Lew Ford on their active roster. As already mentioned, the Twins have a number of guys who easily step into Robertson's place. Walters, Deduno are needed now. I admit, I don't like Hermsen but he's only 23 and has something like a 3.33 era in 30 AA starts. His lack of strike outs is alarming but he's a big guy, maybe you let him show you something in the pen first. There has been far too much discussion on Butera. Thomas gives the Twins someone to hold CF if they need to send Hicks to AAA. Complaining that Benson, Robertson or Burnett are gone seems more like being contrarian than anything else. They are easily replaceable types who aren't really needed on this roster.
  19. gunnarthor
    Oh, a lot of people would probably say that the defensive component isn't useless, rather it's hard to accurately measure. A real difference. Things like pitch framing, for instance, are just beginning to be measured. So it's possible that WAR under rates catchers. We don't know. So we go with what we have. By WAR, Butera has some value as a backup catcher despite being a no-hit guy. Benson has not been able to hit above AA. It's possible it's for any reason other than lack of talent but we don't know. It might be b/c of his injury (that came after he failed in the majors and was demoted from AAA). It might be b/c the Twins aren't smart. And it might be b/c he simply can't hit advanced pitching. But people arguing that Benson is a better option than Butera have to create opinions to explain those reasons b/c the facts don't support it.
  20. gunnarthor
    My guess is that, in other threads, some are still griping that the Twins didn't take Gausman who is already in the majors. I think birdwatcher is having a little fun with their position.
  21. gunnarthor
    I mostly agree with you but ... 1) other students (Appel, Shipley) managed to do fine without it or were smart enough to know how not to get caught. 2) Coming into the year, Gray wasn't this good, as CMB mentioned. Did Adderall help him with his focus? If so, how would he do without it? Revert to the 3rd round arm he was last year? I don't necessarily think Gray is a bad pick and I'd be thrilled to have him but I think those are fair questions teams should be looking at.
  22. gunnarthor
    We could put that information in. We could mention that the OF was, once upon a time ranked the #99 and #100 best prospect by BA. We could mention his best minor league season, he finished 10th in the EL in OPS. We could mention that he's now played 4 seasons in AA. But at 25 it gets a little tough to talk about AA success as the point in keeping a guy around. If you like Benson fine, I've never been a big fan of his. I thought he was pretty overrated and on the Twinkietown boards I used to argue with cmathewson about how Revere would be the better major leaguer in 2012. I don't care. I think you're wrong but it doesn't really matter. I can point out to his failings at AAA and in the majors, his high krate, his bad plate discipline. I can point to things like WAR which showed Butera's value in limited roles. I can point out that Benson was basically blocked by the high number of OF prospects we had and wouldn't be on the roster next year anyway. You can chose to believe them or not. The minors are full of guys like Benson, even ranked by BA, who simply didn't make it. Jeff Clement is playing at Rochester is one.
  23. gunnarthor
    Well, that'll knock him down a few lists, maybe even ours. http://espn.go.com/mlb/draft/2013/story/_/id/9338983/top-draft-prospect-jonathan-gray-had-positive-test-adderall Adderall. Used for ADHD. Helps focus. Klaw doesn't think it'll hurt his draft stock.
  24. gunnarthor
    Digging this back up, but did anyone watch the Red Wedding episode last night? My wife was not happy. Poor dead Robb.
  25. gunnarthor
    From what I've read about Gray the question is whether he can develop a 3rd pitch. If he ends up just a high velocity bullpen arm, it's a bad pick. I would prefer Appel and Bryant to him so if he's there, we should obviously take him. But if the Twins took Stewart over him, I'd probably be ok with it b/c they (presumably) would feel that Stewart was more likely to become a true ace. If they took McGuire and saved money, I'd be pretty upset.
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