gunnarthor

Not really. We'd still needed a pitcher to pitch those missing innings. With Baker (and that money) out, we'd have had to rely on someone like Walters to pitch for us from spring on. So WAR is important but those innings are too.

Twins, Cubs, Marlins and Astros all made trades to improve their farm system so it's a wash? And they've all drafted and it's a wash? Well, then the Twins, like every other team, also made FA signings, so that's a wash. Realistically, the Twins have the best farm system in the majors. They are doing that better than other teams.

I should also point out that I used baseball reference WAR. Fangraphs WAR is different for some players. I think that's b/c fWAR is based on fip and bWAR is based on RA (I think). So a guy who greatly outperforms or underperforms his fip, like Pelfrey, who had a 3.99 fip, was worth 2.1 WAR by fangraphs but a negative number by bWAR. Part of the problem of WAR.

Julio Franco? Is he managing somewhere? I agree that the Twins could use some Spanish speaking coaches/or manager. Not sure Franco is the answer.

I can't disagree with this more (so watch Ryan get fired next week). Ryan hasn't been back at the GM job long enough for the Pohlad's to fire him. And they clearly knew that Ryan was going to be going low-payroll when they brought him back (and Smith wanted to keep or increase payroll, is my guess). He has a track record and good relationship with the Pohlad family. Ticket sales at TF this year were pretty good considering the quality of the team (higher than Pitt and Balt). And obviously the farm system is a lot better than it was just a couple years ago. He was interim-GM last year and he took the interim label off this year. The Pohlads had to know how he'd run the team and give it their blessing. No way he's gone.

Yeah, I guess Dozier's deserving. Mauer's the better player but he missed a lot of games. Dozier had a really nice year which was a nice surprise. He can be part of the future or a possible trade chip.

What if Sano makes the team out of ST? I think that would help ticket sales. And if Buxton debuts after the all-star game? (I'm not arguing that they shouldn't spend money necessarily but they shouldn't spend money on the Edwin Jackson and Ryan Dempsters right now. I do think they should spend money to get some of these Cuban defectors and Japanese FA who are young enough to be part of the next core).

You honestly can't see what the Twins are doing? I mean, I think it's ok to disagree but it's pretty clear the FO is building for the future around a core of Sano and Buxton. They aren't getting distracted and ignoring the best talent (ie taking someone like Gausman to fix a present need over Buxton). They aren't adding parts that will negatively impact the 2015 and beyond teams (ie, paying Jackson 10m/year). They are moving talent at good times - both Span and Revere were traded at pretty good times to maximize their return. They've made nice use of waiver claims and rule v picks. They've made some nice FA signings that won't adversely affect the rebuild. And the first wave of talent came up this year when Gibson, Hicks and Arcia debuted and Dozier and Florimon established themselves as decent MI options (esp defensively). Next year we'll see Meyer, May, Sano and possibly Buxton and Rosario. I mean, we can argue about how they dot the i's and cross the t's. But to say that the Marlins, who really, really screwed over their fans and still have a worse farm system than us, are in better shape seems to be purposefully antagonistic. Maybe the Twins should have let Mauer go to the Red Sox last year in a waiver claim, dropped payroll to 20m and fought for the #1 pick (Rodon seems like he could be a true ace) but I don't think that would have gone over that well with the fans (and the Red Sox sure weren't going to take on his salary and give us Bogaerts). I do think Ryan should have traded Perkins this year and I hope he moves him this offseason. But that's the i's and t's.

I don't think either are bad ideas but, for whatever reason, pitching coaches rarely become managers. There seems to be some industry bias against it. BP had an article about it a few years ago: Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: Ex-Pitching Coach Managers

I had thought that Dougie Baseball would eventually be the new manager. But one year of managing in the minors? Maybe. I think Ryan would like to stay within the org or get someone who would fit in with org thinking - Ozzie, for instance. My guess is Ryan wants to bring back Gardy but might not be able to for a variety of reasons. If Sciosia or Ron Washington were fired, they'd both be considered but I don't think we'd hire either of them. I guess I don't really have a guess. I don't think the final pick will be that exciting - Ryan picked Gardy over more noticeable names like Molitor before and that worked out. Ryan strikes me as the type of guy who follows his plan and doesn't overly worry about outside pressure and the Pohlads seem to give him all the time/respect he needs. (I don'[t think Molitor will be manager but I have to admit that Ryan seemed to have gone out of his way to mention Molitor publicly several times this year. So maybe he has more of a shot than I think).

I think the Pohlad's are happy to have a GM like Ryan who has had success with small payrolls and is willing to jump on a grenade for them on payroll issues. I think the Pohlad's fired Smith b/c he wanted to spend money. I don't blame Ryan for that.

So, here's a list of the pitcher's we didn't pursue that were mentioned as fits by many posters here during the last off season. First, we got Correia 2/10m 9-12, 95 ERA+, 178.1ip, 1.3 WAR Pelfrey 1/4m 5-13, 77 ERA+, 146.2ip, -0.5 WAR And those we didn't sign. Scott Baker - Cubs - 1/5.5m 3 starts, 15ip. Missed most season w/injury Edwin Jackson - Cubs - 4/52m 8-17 84 ERA+, 172.2 ip -0.8 WAR Joe Blanton Angels - 2/15m - 2-14 62 ERA+, 132.2ip -2.0 WAR Joe Saunders - Seattle - 1/6.5m - 11-16, 70 ERA+, 183ip -0.3 WAR Liriano - Pitt - 1/1m* 16-7, 123 ERA+, 156 ip 3.3 WAR Dan Haren - Nats - 1/13m - 9-14 78 ERA+, 162.2ip -0.4 WAR Shawn Marcum - Mets - 1/4m - 1-10 67 ERA+, 78.1ip -1.0 WAR Brandon McCarthy - DBacks - 2/15.5m - 5-9 84 ERA+, 122ip -0.2 WAR Anibal Sanchez - Det - 5/80m - 14-8 158 ERA+, 177ip 4.3 WAR Ryan Dempster - Bos -2/26.5m 8-9 89 ERA+, 169.2ip, -0.2 WAR I think these were the most common names thrown out by fans. Villanueva for the Cubs was also mentioned and he had a really good year but mostly out of the bullpen. Kazmir had a decent year for Cleveland (9-9 91 ERA+, 152ip 0.9 WAR) but I don't remember anyone bringing him up. * Liriano's contract had a lot of clauses and an option b/c of his arm injury during the signing period. He was paid more than 1m this year.

Well, we should probably add in financial resources too. Unless we're ignoring that, too.

If they both struggle, their trade value will go down. If they both do well, it'll go up. But if you think we should trade someone b/c you're worried their value will go down, then I think it's fair to say the other side will think the same thing and they aren't that valuable. I don't think I've seen any lists where Rosario is a top 50 guy. BA, Sickels and Mayo all did mid season re-rankings and he wasn't top 50 on any of them. He hit pretty well in AA for a bit but had a bad finish. I think he'll be in the 75 range but some will have him higher.

I think this makes a lot of sense. I'd also note that it looks to me that RH pull power bats are going to be a lot more successful at Target Field. LH bats won't be. But I also think that Rosario's value isn't that great right now. A good team needing a 2nd baseman right now isn't going to want to trade for a AA one (Dozier would make sense and maybe we move him at next years deadline if Rosario is doing well in AAA). A bad team needing a 2nd baseman won't want to give up a prospect. So I think Rosario would get us back a mediocre vet - sort of the opposite side of the Rollins and Buchanon trades. Plus Rosario's a nice complementary prospect but he's not an elite one. Next year he might crack BA's top 100 but he's probably in the 75 range.

The grades listed for Trout were his projected future grades then. BA noted that his hit tool would now be an 80 and his power a 70.

2013 Minor League Player Of The Year: Byron Buxton - BaseballAmerica.com They also listed in future grades and compared them to Trout: Hit 70 70 Power 60 60 Run 80 80 Arm 70 50 Field 70 70 Overall 70 70 The first numbers are his, the second are Trouts'.

I agree but I think I'm secretly rooting for us to lose these games.

He's the head prospect guy for fangraphs. And he certainly didn't take the #1 at each position - guys like D'Arnaud (cathcer); Correa, Lindor, Russell (short); Rosario, Wong (2nd); Taveras, Yelich, Castenellos (OF) among others were all better prospects than the guys chosen.

Thanks, my bad.

Hulet, a prospect write at mlbtraderumors and fangraphs, put together his all minor league team. Not a surprise but Sano and Buxton were both on it. Buxton was the "biggest no brainer on the list." The Buxton love is great to see. MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Jason Parks has write ups on Buxton and May before it goes behind the pay wall. Baseball Prospectus | Monday Morning Ten Pack: Arizona Fall League Preview Parks loves Buxton ("Simply put, Buxton is a superhero, showing all would-be contemporaries and spectators that they are mere mortals and insufficient next to his special baseball powers.") but I thought his words on May were nice, too. I think some might be worried about #4 innings eating pitcher but I think that's a good thing and not meant to insult May, who I think ends up pitching a ton of innings for us, saving the bullpen and having occasionally dominating days. I'm still a big fan of his.

Nice list from scouts contacted by Passan. Buxton "is the best thing in the minor leagues right now, and it's not really close." Y! SPORTS

I think one thing you have to remember is that the Twins will get some surprisingly good performances out of people not ranked in the top 100. AJ, Radke, Baker, Santana, Dozier, Koskie, Jones etc were never top 100 guys yet turned into strong players for us. And when we worry about prospects not panning out, we have to remember that the list of top 100 guys we have/had includes guys like Swarzak and Benson, too.

Does anyone know how PTBNL works? Can it be stacked based on how Morneau plays? So if he hits like it's 2010 for the next 6 weeks they get a better player and if he hits like it's 2011 (or gets injured) it's cash? Or do both sides already know the player but can't mention him until his tradeable?