Two points to make. You are significantly understating the Cards/Twins payroll differences and the advantage it gave St. Louis. You point out that both teams topped 100m 3x. Another way of saying it would be, since 2005, the Cards payroll has always been more than 83m and the Twins have topped that 3x. And if we're looking at history events here - ie where payroll really did factor - you can't brush that off and say it wasn't a factor b/c the Twins had 100m payroll 3x. You can argue that, going forward, payroll isn't as big a deal. Secondly, yes, there is talent throughout the draft but after the top picks, it's pretty random (and some of the talent that did fall, fell b/c of salary demands, not talent). In another post, you pointed out that there is talent at the #20 pick. Since 1990 (23 drafts) only Mike Mussina, Torii Hunter, Eric Milton, Adam Kennedy, CC Sabathia, Denard Span and Chad Cordero have managed to amass even 7.0 WAR. That's a 30% hit rate and you'll notice that two of those hits were drafted by the Twins and a third we brought into our system. If you go to pick #28, only three guys (Colby Rasmus, Daric Barton and Charles Johnson) meet that cut off. That's a 13% hit rate. 1st pick - 13 so far (57%). Another way to look at it would be to compare the accumulated WAR totals of the picks - #15 picks since 1990 have amassed 129.4 WAR (Chase Utley making nearly half of it). #5 picks have amassed 200 WAR. #25 picks managed 77.8 (basically just Trout, Garza and Cain). So while there is talent, it's not realistic to expect that drafting in the 20s for a decade isn't going to severely hurt your team. In a single year, you can make a nice hit and the Twins have done so several times - Hunter, Span, Revere, Garza, Gibson. But they'll have misses too. Yankees have the same problem now - although that payroll thing (and massive PED use) helps them out some.