gunnarthor

The problem with a quick look like this is it doesn't really tell the whole story. The mid and late 90s Twins had significant payroll problems that factored deeply into their problems. And I think it's also fair to say that people - GMs, managers, lawyers etc - improve. So if Terry Ryan was or wasn't a good GM in 1996 isn't particularly relevant to whether or not he's a good GM now. We have seen that Ryan was the only small market GM in baseball that was able to change his teams nucleus of players on the fly and still make the playoffs. That's pretty impressive. And since he's come back he's made a number of strong trades so it doesn't seem like he's a confused old grandfather walking around. He has shown the ability to rebuild a losing team and keep it good on a small budget. He's still doing things like that.

Not too well, they are still fighting over things today. Orioles and Nationals have complicated relationship when it comes to marketing - Baltimore Sun Baseball Prospectus | Buying Off the Orioles MLB wouldn't want a team leaving a nice market like the TC to something like Tulsa. It's just not a realistic concern.

Yeah, I hate the Pohlads but if they wanted to sell, they just as likely find a rich owner that would keep the team in MN. And other teams have territorial rights that make moves that much harder to do. So yeah, the Twins will still be in MN in 2025 even if they have losing seasons every year.

Twins have a more loyal fanbase than Cleveland - we actually out drew them this year. Red Sox dropped some bad contracts but still had significant $$ to throw out and had players returning from injuries. The Twins problems weren't the same. IIRC, Cleveland's former GM Shapiro (who had a great run) was promoted to President after the 09 season. Chris Antonetti (who had been Shapiro's second in command) took over. And they've had the same owner since 2000. So not really a change in ownership or new ways of thinking. Just building up from a farm system and trades.

Sure, if baseball's economics change drastically long term bad teams might fold or move but it's really, really unlikely. That doesn't mean we shouldn't bitch and moan about bad teams but I wouldn't worry about not having a team here in 2025.

Cleveland suffered through 4 straight losing seasons before this year. Boston didn't really rebuild. They had one losing season with an insane manager and a ton of injuries. They also have significant financial resources the Twins don't. Teams that have extended rebuilds the last decade or so - Pirates, Royals, Rays, Rangers, etc - have often changed GMs and FO turnover that makes rebuilds harder.

TR wasn't GM in 2011.

Shouldn't you be aiming at Deron Johnson instead of Radcliff? Johnson took over as draft guru in 08 and Gibson was the first pitcher he drafted that made the majors. Steil? He's been farm director for one year and it's been a pretty good year for the farm system. Several of the best prospects did two levels. St. Peter? Isn't he mostly about bringing in money/revenue etc and has nothing to do with baseball ops? I get the Gardy/Anderson hate, I don't agree but I get it. Ryan hate is ridiculous. He's a great GM, proven and has already made significant strides forward on the rebuild.

You asked for positive national reviews of the Twins so I gave you a couple. Then you decided to ignore over half of them and claim it as more of the same.

Yep.

The Twins will have another top 5 pick in next years draft and they have a lot of youngsters here and coming in next year. A year from now, I wouldn't be surprised if Sano, Buxton, Meyer and May were all up. So I think the Twins should start adding FA to go with that core - ideally the Japanese or Cuban youngsters that might sign 5 year deals. I'd like them to add one real power bat to the lineup. I think Phil Hughes would be a nice fit in TF. Trade Perkins this offseason and trade Willingham at the deadline. Listen to offers on Dozier and Rosario and hopefully we can make a nice move there.

Here's something from the NY Times, CBS Sports, SI, KLaw, SI cover piece, ESPN, Yahoo.

I don't think xFIP is all that relevant for TF pitchers, though, is it? Might as well just use fip.

If you trust xfip. bWAR all had them with negative numbers but I believe that uses RA instead of fip, like fWAR. -shrug- And sure, currently a two year deal won't hurt the Twins even if it's all flushed down the drain (doesn't mean you should do it). If the Twins take a chance on Lincecum, I'd probably be excited b/c of his name. And Haren's been someone I wished the Twins had targeted for years. So if we do something like that (or bring back Santana) I certainly won't complain. I think there's risk but there was risk with Pelfrey and Harden this year. I was trying to point out that the FA SP wasn't great but it does have some potential. (I'm leery of Johnson b/c of his injury history).

You can add Pelfrey to that group!

I see what you're saying and that's why I said "sorta." Going forward, 3 of the 4 OF/DH spots will (in a perfect world) go to Buxton, Hicks and Arcia. Arcia and Hicks have already made the majors. Buxton (in a perfect world) could make it next summer since he's starting in AA. So, until they know that Hicks isn't a part of the future or Arcia is only a DH or Buxton won't advance beyond AA, they can't really clog up those positions (and Willingham will be one of them next year). A one year deal for someone would be ok but a 3 yr deal for someone like Mike Morse? I'm not sure I'd like that. And guys like Choo, Ellsbury or Cory Hart will be out of the Twins plans.

They're names but Johnson, Lincecum and Haren were pretty bad this year. They could have bounce back seasons and some one will try but a 2yr deal for Haren right now would be reckless. Santana had a bounce back year this year. Garza's probably the biggest pitching name on the market and he's no Greinke or Sanchez.

Sounds good but it's never quite that simple. It's a pretty weak SP market - probably worse than last year. I think Phil Hughes would pitch well at TF and the Twins have been rumored to be interested in him. I've read that he wants a 1 yr deal to build up value and I've read that he wants a 4 yr deal. So who knows. The best FA are listed here. Ervin Santana is #7 for instance. He can probably be gotten on a 3 yr deal but probably around 12m/yr or higher, I'd guess. Burnett and Kuroko aren't coming here. Choo will probably want 100m and has Boras as an agent. Same with Ellsbury. Their are some neat names - Santana is signing somewhere on a one year deal to make good. Lincecum is a FA but I have no idea what happens with him. Josh Johnson will probably get a 1 yr deal. I don't think Ryan is going to spend much in FA - shocking - and a guy like Hughes might be the best we get. Right now the Twins have a sorta crowded outfield as Hicks will have to get a spot in the next few years (although maybe not out of ST) and Arcia has the other corner. Buxton could be up faster than expected since he'll be at AA to start next season. So I think the OF will be kinda weak next year as we wait for guys to grow into their roles. They could add a one year corner bat easily enough until Hicks shows he's ready. I think Willingham DH's most of the time next year. 3b is reserved for Sano and Florimon/Dozier did ok up the middle. They'll need a new 1B/DH/C guy to go with Mauer. Pinto will have some of those at bats. McCann would be an interesting get but obviously he'll be too expensive.

I think they'll hang onto Willingham this offseason and hope he regains some of his value for next years trade deadline, which shouldn't be too hard to do. I suspect he'll be DHing most of the time and if his knees are ok, his power should be ok. Even this year, his OBP was pretty good even with the bad avg. And at the deadline, he'll only be owed about 3.5m or so.

I hadn't realized how effective Hamilton has been for the Reds. He already has 13 SB in just 11 games. Here's video of him stealing four in one game - including on a pitch out. Video: CIN@HOU: Hamilton steals four bags in first MLB start | MLB.com

What young guy isn't getting playing time right now? (Doumit has started 11 of the last 21 games) Parmelee? How are the Twins sitting on their hands? Since Ryan came back he traded Span, Liriano, Morneau, Revere and Butera. He found a pair of 26 year olds that can play the middle infield going forward. As mentioned, Hicks, Gibson and Arcia all debuted this year. Pinto seems to be a nice piece as well. The Twins got old and their prospect well dried up. They have to get it going again. So, even with the benefit of hindsight, what would you have done at end? Trade Willingham for Sean Gilmartin? Let Mauer go to the Red Sox through waivers? Outbid other teams for certain players?

Yeah, I couldn't find any link specific for the end of 2009, so I just used the pre and post years.

I guess we've gotten to the point where it's just shouting around each other. The Twins in the last two years seem to have done a lot right for a rebuild. They drafted the best prospect in the game when the Astros failed to. They traded Span and Revere at the height of their value. They debuted a bunch of rookies who seem to be both major and complementary parts of the future nucleus. They didn't give up on guys who they think will be parts moving forward. They got rid of pieces they didn't think would be part of it. They didn't mortgage the future on silly FA signings or poke the fans in the eye. We can quibble with the i's and t's but it seems they are doing as much as the Cubs, Astros and Marlins are.

I think he wanted more specifics. You have the benefit of hindsight. What would you have done after last season? I agree the Twins should have (and still could) trade Perkins. But that doesn't mean they aren't rebuilding effectively. And if you want them to go the tank route, how would you make them 10 losses worse so they could get the #2 pick or 17 losses worse to get that #1 pick? And if you think they'd get top prospects while not paying Mauer's salary, I think you're incredibly wrong.

It seems like you're going out of your way to make the Twins system seem bad. Ignore the accolades of the minor league system but at the same time congratulate other teams that have lesser systems. As pointed out, the Twins system graduated Hicks, Gibson and Arcia this year and still have what is generally considered the best system. They found a solid MI duo for the first time in ... ever. I mean, at a certain point, if the answer isn't "they have better young players coming up according to industry experts" than I don't think anything would work. It seems like you are trying to ignore every thing that suggests a rebuilding plan and then say they don't have a plan. Presumably your argument ends with something like "the Twins need to spend more money in FA."