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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Agreed. Sickels said he's no longer a top 100 guy today but he'd be in the early 100s.
  2. gunnarthor
    Boston has a lot to offer - Middlebrooks is their recently demoted third baseman who won't take a walk to save his life. Three decent pitching prospects in Ranaudo, Webster and Barnes. BA, in their mid season update, ranked Bogarts #4 (untouchable), Bradley #21 (solid CF to replace Ellsbury), Ranaudo #37 and Garin Cecchini, a really nice third base man, #41. A package around Ranaudo and, say, Barnes would probably be in line for what we'd want back. (Barnes is a Trevor May type who has really struggled at AA this year while striking out a ton of hitters).
  3. gunnarthor
    You can summarize and post small excerpts but can't cut and paste.
  4. gunnarthor
    Remember, some scouts thought he had higher upside than either Appel or Gray. Crawfishboxes (Astros sportsnation blog) quoted a ML area scout who said Stewart was the best pitcher in the draft. BA said similar things. He's a really nice pick.
  5. gunnarthor
    Ozzie's pretty polarizing. I like him but concede he might not be a perfect match here. I always wanted him to be Gardy's bench coach and then have someone put a microphone on them during the game. It would be great listening.
  6. gunnarthor
    I'd love for the Twins to get Castellanos. And I think he's the high end type of guy they should be looking for. Not sure if it gets done since it's a steep price and Tigers aren't in any danger of playing the play in game. But hopefully it happens. Let's hope a bunch of teams' bullpens start imploding after the break.
  7. gunnarthor
    True but ignoring position, those players were still rentals who maybe gave 1-2 WAR of value down the stretch. Perkins might be able to match that this year and he has a pretty nice affordable contract for the next few years. I don't think you compare his circumstances with a subset of relievers traded at the break over the last few years (although there have been some nice gets for rental relievers - including Zach Cox, Wilson Ramos, Chris Davis, Tommy Hunter. The Blue Jays traded two relievers for Edwin Jackson and Julio Tehran). Perkins should be seen as more valuable than a 3 month rental. If the Twins aren't getting a Span like deal for him, than keep him.
  8. gunnarthor
    I think you must have a much higher opinion of Webster than I do. He's probably a top 50-70 range prospect right now. If Perkins can't land something like that (not nec him since I don't know if Boston really needs to make a trade) than we shouldn't trade Perkins.
  9. gunnarthor
    Well, under control for next year it would be Gibson, Meyer, May, Worley, Hendricks, Deduno, Correia, Diamond ... and your 4A guys like Walters and Albers. A few buy low free agents. (Twins have been mentioned as liking Phil Hughes but we'll see). Not great. Man, I hope they trade Perkins.
  10. gunnarthor
    IIRC, the Twins weren't that high on Ranaudo coming out of college. They passed on him, although he was a Boras client. Barnes has struggled a lot in AA this year and Webster might be a Brad Peacock type. All three have issues. I think Ranaudo's stock has gone up a lot this year, BA had him on their midseason list at 37. But Barnes and Webster's stock has dropped. I think Span's deal is comparable so a Perkins for Ranaudo would be ok but if it was one of the other two, I'd want at least another prospect back. I'm also not sure how badly Boston needs bullpen help.
  11. gunnarthor
    Here's a write up on the 3 Red Sox pitchers. I would think that the Twins would be happy with one of them as a centerpiece in a deal. None of them would be a true ace but would probably slot behind a healthy Meyer and ahead of a healthy Gibson.
  12. gunnarthor
    Rangers bullpen and rotation is awesome, they don't need Perkins. They could use some corner OF offense and DH but Willingham is out and Morneau might be a slight upgrade at DH (I think his LH bat would do really well there). I'm certain they'd like a guy like Arcia for the long term but I'm not sure how much, if any, he helps them this year (again, his LH bat might play really nice there). So it's not really a good fit. Profar is helping them now and will be the long term replacement for Kinsler. They are in "win now" mode and we don't have anything that might help them. Arcia and one of Sano/Buxton would probably get us Profar but that's not worth it for us. I don't think Profar could have ever happened but they do have another really nice MI prospect in Luis Sardines, ranked #84 by BA coming into the season. A healthy Willingham might have been able to get a conversation going on him.
  13. gunnarthor
    Here's a quick rundown of a number of pitchers that were discussed (at least somewhat) as a FA possibility by fans. I only looked at IP and WAR b/c I'm lazy today. Contracts are also included. I don't think Greinke was a realistic possibility but he keeps coming up when I did these before, so I included him. Ranked by WAR. Sanchez Det 5/80m 92 ip, 2.5 WAR Liriano Pit 1/1m* 77ip 2.5 WAR Saunders Sea 1/6.5m 115ip, 1.7 WAR Villanueva Cubs 2/10m 80ip, 1.4 WAR Correia Min 2/10m 111ip, 1.0 WAR Greinke LAD 6/147m 85ip 1.0 WAR Dempster Bos 2/26.5m 110ip, 0.7 WAR Slowey Miami 1/.75m 90 ip 0.7 WAR Lannan Phi 2.5m arbitration 53 ip 0.6 WAR Kazmir Cle 1/1m 86ip 0.4 WAR Pelfrey – Min 1/4m 83ip, -0.5 WAR McCarthy Ari 2/15.5m 67ip -0.6 WAR Jackson. Cubs 4/52m 100ip -0.7 WAR Marcum Mets 1/4m 78ip -0.8 WAR Blanton. LAA 2/15m 112ip, -0.9 WAR Haren Nats 1/13m 93ip, -1.1 WAR Baker Cubs 1/5.5m Has not played Villanueva and Slowey have both been moved to the bullpen. I'm not sure how much of their value is as a starter as opposed to a reliever. I think Villanueava had been pitching fairly well as a starter. Liriano had a injury clause in his contract so he's making a bit more than that and has an option for next year. Still, he's having a really nice season in the NL. Very few have stayed healthy all year.
  14. gunnarthor
    A Trumbo-type + high prospect isn't nec a bad idea although Trumbo himself isn't a guy I'd want. Just by WAR, Perkins should be worth something around 9-11 WAR over the rest of his contract which is also very cheap. Half year rentals Beltran, Ramos, Mujica, Sanchez etc have gotten a lot more than a Trumbo like guy. Perkins should get the Twins a high upside young player. If they can't find a top guy (or guys) then they should keep him.
  15. gunnarthor
    Numbers aren't everything although his are fine. He's about a year younger than Arcia and reportedly plays better defense. He's also right handed which seems to be better longterm for RF. He's easily a top 20 prospect. I would be absolutely thrilled if the Twins got him for Perkins and I hope that he's the type of high upside guy we're looking for. (It would also be nice if the Red Sox bullpen started blowing more games so they might panic and trade Ranauda).
  16. gunnarthor
    I mostly agree but for center fielders, defense is a big part of their value. Whether WAR (or any other stat) accurately measures and calculates defense is a different question. Certainly OPS+ is pretty good judge of offensive value.
  17. gunnarthor
    Thought this was interesting. Span - .257/.311/.350 83 OPS+ 0.4 WAR Revere - .304/.338/.353 90 OPS+ 1.1 WAR Hicks - .199/.266/.363 71 OPS+ 1.3 WAR Revere is out-slugging Span. That can't be going over well in Nats land. Twins certainly traded those two at the right time. Obviously, Hicks is getting a lot of defensive WAR love to get that mark but, in fairness, Span and Revere got a lot of their WAR values from defense when they were here too.
  18. gunnarthor
    He's a FA at the end of the year so we won't trade for him now. I think there was a quote a few weeks ago about Hughes being a possible target for next year though. Personally, I think he's a good bet for a change of scenery guy. If I was the Nats or another team looking for that 5th starter, I'd like him since he shouldn't cost too much and his upside could be better than you'd think. Also, if you read Yankee blogs, he and Joba should be enough for Mauer. (I exaggerate only slightly).
  19. gunnarthor
    I'd like to see us trade off a few guys as well.
  20. gunnarthor
    Tonkin's numbers are nice. Anyone have any scouting reports on him? Is he another Slama or does he have better stuff?
  21. gunnarthor
    You bring up a good point. I'm not sure how much of his prominence is media driven since we have so many more sources/stories then even a few years ago. I do remember Rick Knapp used to get coverage for his work as a roving pitching guru (one article even mentioned how he pushed the draft guys to draft taller pitchers). So it may not be much more than that. On the other hand, Molitor has been praised in the media by both Ryan and TK who aren't always effusive with praise. And on the third hand, we know Ryan didn't hire Molitor before. So I'm not sure what to make of it. My guess is that Gardy sticks around but if he doesn't ....
  22. gunnarthor
    Couple points. First, as good as those playoff Twins were, the usually overachieved. The 02-04 playoff teams were 18 wins better than their pyth w/l records. Even with that, the 5 Twins teams that lost avg about 92w/season. Their opponents avg 101 wins. And why is it that the Twins always won a weak central? The 06 central had three teams win 90 games, including the reigning WS champ. And now that we suck the central is good? I'd say the Tigers have won some pretty cheap AL central titles the last few years.
  23. gunnarthor
    Not really the same situation. Rangers and Nats were bad for a decade. Eventually both teams made good trades and stockpiled enough draft chips and (esp for the Rangers) latin america. Cards are a fantastic organization. Hopefully the Twins can duplicate that.
  24. gunnarthor
    So maybe the answer to making a solid pitching staff isn't through free agency? Maybe the team should draft well, make some strong trades and build up through a core? Sort of like what the GM is clearly doing? If the best argument against Ryan's plan is "pay a lot of money and hope" I'm ok with the GMs plan.
  25. gunnarthor
    No one is clamoring for a magical starter. Some wisely think that 29 yr old pitchers with shoulder injuries and no track record of durability are probably a bad investment. Esp in a rebuilding year.
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