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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Maybe Plouffe is getting traded? There's no harm in keeping a guy like Nunez at this point when we still have Parmelee and Colabello on the roster.
  2. gunnarthor
    I think, from what I've read from players, it's Hunter's encouragement that has been helpful. He's not going to make a bad player good. But he might be able to get a player to better understand the daily grind, the problems of giving away at bats, leaving personal stuff at home, not worrying too much about an 0-7 stretch etc etc which might make them better at baseball. A lot of people in LA loved how Hunter kept the team together after the young pitcher was killed in that car accident.
  3. gunnarthor
    This has been in a couple different threads so maybe it deserves it's own. What happens with Arcia? 1) He plays LF most of the season, continues to be a big part of the Twins future 2) Twins don't really trust Vargas and see Arcia as the longterm answer at DH. 3) Arcia is on the trade block. Twins won't give him away but if they could get a young cost controlled starter they'd flip him. (One year of Heyward got Shelby Miller). A team like Texas might have enough bullets to make a trade for him and Arcia in TX would be terrifying. I think the Twins still think of him as part of the future, although his role - OF or DH - is still open. But I do think the Twins will listen on offers to him and would part with him for better pitching.
  4. gunnarthor
    I guess I must have misunderstood your post. I thought you were arguing that people ok with the move thought the Twins must be this close to the world series. Of the six, Nunez is the closest to "mediocre" but they have other people on the 40 man roster that I'd rather they got rid of than just letting these six guys walk. (Colabello, Herrmann, Parmelee) So i don't see any huge downside of keeping these guys at this point.
  5. gunnarthor
    i don't disagree that he's a bad fielder at this point. My problem is that I don't think defensive stats are accurately measured or accurately valued. So we may be multiplying a wrong number with another wrong number to create a (negative) value that is not consistent with reality. (We have seen that before, to a lesser extent, with Orlando Hudson). That Hunter seems to be at the extreme end, one year being so-so and two years after being terrific, makes me think that there is a lot of noise in the numbers. I'm also expecting that Molitor will move his OFers around a bit more than what may have happened in Detroit. He is old, he could turn into a pumpkin over night. But he hit pretty well last year and I think TF is a better place for his swing. So if he can put up a 110 OPS+ again, I think the Twins will be in good shape. But if his bat goes (and it's certainly possible), we might have two tough months of Hunter before he is let go.
  6. gunnarthor
    http://ct.fra.bz/ol/fz/sw/i59/2/1/21/frabz-Strawman-arguments-Strawman-arguments-everywhere-712e1b.jpg
  7. gunnarthor
    These are my problems/concerns with the Hunter defense is horrible gang 1) Defensive stats, on a single year, are not that reliable. Two years ago, Hunter was consider a better RFer than Stanton by the stats. Yet everyone is burying him on last years numbers. 2) We fans are way too trusting of the numbers. Joe Posnanski just quoted Bill James who stated that he flat out hated WAR and thought the numbers were phoney. Every article will have a "the numbers aren't perfect" disclaimer and then use those numbers to say what they want them to say. 3) As bad as his defensive numbers were in one year, they weren't as bad as Cuddyer's in 10, 11 and 13 yet people seem a lot more forgiving of Cuddy's defensive limitations than Hunter's. I think there's an unsaid expectation that the slow looking white guy is trying as hard as he can and Hunter might be loafing on lazy fly balls. 4) I think RF in Comerica is one of the hardest RF to play and Detroit CFers didn't seem to be very helpful in covering extra ground. That might be a way the Twins can protect Hunter. (A reminder, when Hudson came to the Twins in 2010, similar concerns were voiced. Klaw noted that the Twins would probably do a better job of shifting than the Dodgers and Arizona had an he expected a bounce back defensive season. That's what happened). All that said, I'm not sure RF in TF is much easier. 5) Lastly, defensive stats don't have to even out. Most players are in the negative. In the AL, CFers combined for a -20 value last year.
  8. gunnarthor
    I think everyone is putting more stock in defensive stats than needed. Two years ago, defensive stats had Hunter as a better RF than Stanton. Last years numbers could have a lot of noise in them - esp for playing RF in Comerica. His RH bat might play a lot better in TF, too, if he's still a pull hitter.
  9. gunnarthor
    Do the Twins have any 40 man space left for a potential rule v pick-up now?
  10. gunnarthor
    None of those things are relevant to your proposal. Maybe those things Hunter does, while horrible in your eyes, are the things that the people running the team think the locker room needs. Maybe, with their experience around the sport, and your aversion to "the baseball codes," perhaps the people with the best knowledge of locker room dynamics and what is and isn't needed in them aren't posting on TD?
  11. gunnarthor
    http://deadspin.com/mlb-umpire-dale-scott-comes-out-as-gay-1665692835 Scott isn't one of the umps whose name I remember so he's probably not horrible. He's the first openly gay ump in the majors (although there is at least one in the minors). But I bet the fans in Boston will treat him well the first time he makes a call they don't like ...
  12. gunnarthor
    Cool. I wonder if this means the Twins might grab DeShields in the rule v draft.
  13. gunnarthor
    When he hit it, Walker hit the ball hard. But he was 6th on the team in OPS among players with 100 PA because he made a lot of outs, too. He had a lot to do with the team but the Miracle were 2nd in OBP and SLG and OPS while being 4th in ERA. That's the good team make up.
  14. gunnarthor
    Happy Thanksgiving, drive safely!
  15. gunnarthor
    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/53719/good-guy-allen-a-smart-hire-for-the-twins
  16. gunnarthor
    Good point on Garcia. Not sure if the Twins would stash him, ala Santana, but he's pretty intriguing. I wasn't aware but Delino DeShields is available. He's divided a few scouts but he's put up solid numbers and can play both CF and 2B. Twins love bloodlines and he fits a need.
  17. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure if this has been posted elsewhere, is so, sorry, but here are a couple interesting rule v unprotected players. Atlanta: J.R. Graham. The pitcher was ranked #93 in BA's top prospect list two years ago. He got hurt and hasn't thrown a ton of pitches since his return but he had #2 upside, once upon a time. And he's probably likely to stick in a bullpen if nothing else. Atlanta: Cody Martin. Twins actually drafted him out of high school but didn't sign him. He put up pretty solid numbers in AAA last year - 7-8, 3.52 era, 156 ip, 8.2 k/9, 3.2bb/9. Could be a 5th starter and ready to pitch out of ST. With the Twins dropping Swarzak, I'd bet they grab one of these guys if they can. mlbpipeline has a few other articles on the rule v guys - http://m.mlb.com/news/article/102304028/pipeline-perspectives-cody-martin-delino-deshields-jr-are-top-unprotected-prospects http://m.mlb.com/news/article/102323126/pipeline-perspectives-henry-ramos-jarlin-garcia-are-best-unprotected-prospects
  18. gunnarthor
    Yours sounds good. When you look at the top end prospects that didn't fare well at the majors - guys like Francour, Delmon Young, Marte, Wood, etc - the biggest issue they had was poor control of the strike zone. That isn't really one of the tools, per se.
  19. gunnarthor
    I think it means a couple things 1) there is a lot more money in baseball than Twins fans typically think. I'm not saying the Twins should run out and sign Scherzer but they shouldn't claim that they don't have the payroll to keep players when they get out of the arb years anymore. 2) Locking up young guys through the age 32 (or so) season makes a ton of sense. 3) We are really in a pitching/defense era where Seager's offensive numbers are acceptable to get that kind of deal. Wow.
  20. gunnarthor
    Does Kemp have 10/5 rights yet? If so, he can veto any trade to MN. (He might also have a no-trade clause). I don't hate Kemp but at 107m over the next five years, I don't think he's a good bet for us. As to what it would take, i think that depends on LA. Is this a salary dump where the Twins take 80% of his salary? Then I think it wouldn't take much. Maybe some bullpen help and a B prospect. But if they want value for him I think they wouldn't move him without a top 5 prospect in our system + more. LA fans aren't just going to let the FO let him go for nothing. He's pretty darn popular there.
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, way too early to get hoping for a guy but Cameron would be awesome at 6.
  22. gunnarthor
    Probably just arguing semantics here. I would expect that most pitching prospects would be thrilled to make 130+ starts in the majors.
  23. gunnarthor
    Mike, that's one of the problem/concern - nobody has read that yet everyone is willing to make judgement on WAR. Heck, people on this site posted that Dozier was more valuable than Miguel Cabrera this year.
  24. gunnarthor
    I always felt the opposite - they under rank AAA guys while dreaming on lower ranked guys. As to Blackburn, he had a very good career - 137 starts in the majors. 69 of which were quality starts. He had two pretty darn good seasons and, while I questioned WAR's value on another thread, he did manage two 2+ WAR seasons. Revere and Ramos have combined for two.
  25. gunnarthor
    My guess would be Crain or Mijares in a top 10.
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