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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    The best strike out pitchers the Twins have had over Ryan's years were obtained through trades and rule v not the draft. Again, I don't really care about what a good pitcher looks like. We need good pitchers period. If it's a Radke, great. If it's Santana, great. Anyway, if I had a draft strategy (and it's good that I don't), I would aim for upside with my first pick. Take an Aiken if he falls, for example. But I'd use a good chunk of my other first day picks on a Radcliff like approach and draft the dreaded safe college pitchers like Baker, Joe Kelly, Drew Smyly, Tyson Ross etc.
  2. gunnarthor
    Either your sarcasm meter isn't working or I wasn't artful. Could go either way. I was trying to stuff the notion that Radcliff didn't pursue front of the rotation type starters so he "wasted" the Garza pick. I dunno know. It's been a long day.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yeah, it's so far out that all of these things will change but I'd be happy with a guy like Senzel or Delbec, college third basemen who might be quickly through the system.
  4. gunnarthor
    Fireball pitchers fail too. The Twins draft strategy has changed as to pitchers since Johnson took over and I think you can argue that his results haven't been nearly as good as Radcliff's were, even though Johnson takes the fireballers (of course, that's a simplistic view since Johnson took "safe" arms like Wimmers and Radcliff wasted picks on fireballers like Durbin and Garza). The Twins should aim to draft good pitchers - speed of their fastball shouldn't be a concern. Nola is a good pitcher (I'm still glad we took Gordon) and deserved to be a top pick, as he was. But if the best option at 16 is an Aaron Nola type, that's great. Take him.
  5. gunnarthor
    My take on the Twins not signing anyone is that the payroll is pretty close to tapped out, despite what the Pohlad's may claim.
  6. gunnarthor
    I'm pretty much ready to write them off. Their pitching was horrible last year and Zimmerman is a pretty overrated NL pitcher. Upton is a good slugger but he isn't enough. I think they'll finish last in the Central again.
  7. gunnarthor
    Yeah, obviously as many different plans is better. I have a small 401k right now with a full match from my employer. My wife will get a state pension. We have some IRAs as well. We also set up some 529 plans for our kids college funds which will (hopefully) pay a large portion of that down the road. We got lucky and paid off our mortgage early so we're managing to put away a pretty good amount each month. If not for those damn school loans (at 7.5% interest) ...
  8. gunnarthor
    Sadly, I'm a nonprofit attorney. A few years ago Congress passed a loan forgiveness program that would forgive your loans after you've worked at a nonprofit for 10 years and were paying off the debt while working. Last summer I learned that I was paying it off but under the wrong plan so all my years didn't qualify. (That was a really bad day). I had actually been paying MORE than I would have under the qualifying plan but it didn't matter. So my wife and I started planning how we'd pay off this 100k and decided to make a big payment out of our savings in March 2016 (after we had owned a certain stock for a year to get lower taxes). And now the our portfolio is tanking just as we're getting ready to actually use it. As I said, 'ow'. But I agree it is actually a good time to buy low on some things. Oil will eventually go back up. And some of the financial giants are a good price, too.** **that is not financial advice, that is an opinion. I repeat, that is NOT financial advice.
  9. gunnarthor
    Ouch. Lots of pain. Our portfolio has lost about 17% of its value in the last month or so. That really sucks.
  10. gunnarthor
    Small world - I'm going to be in Orlando for a legal training that weekend!
  11. gunnarthor
    Didn't Boggs or Winfield want to go in as a Devil Ray or Padre and the HOF over rode them? I can't remember but I thought I heard something like the Rays offered Boggs some stuff ....
  12. gunnarthor
    They think you're working on an abacus.
  13. gunnarthor
    Both played 12 seasons and compiled nearly the same amount of WAR although Koufax threw about 300 more innings. Both had 4 seasons of 7+ WAR. Both led all players in WAR one year while Santana led pitcher WAR 3x to Koufax 2x. Both led the league in WHIP 4x. While Koufax had the best two seasons, Santana wasn't that far behind.
  14. gunnarthor
    Obviously, part of this is peak v. longevity. Guys like Mauer, Santana, Utley, Nomar had amazing peaks and I think the HOF voters should like that more than longevity. I've complained about all the support Tim Raines is getting - he only had 6 4 WAR+ seasons and just played forever. Mauer, Santana et al had more/better 6 seasons. Why should Raines be considered a HOF for all those non-HOF caliber years?
  15. gunnarthor
    Sure, there are questions but on Perkins/Jepsen/May issues that you bring up, Bastardo isn't the answer. As I mentioned, I'd be happy if the Twins signed Clippard but I probably have more faith that one or two of our relief pitchers in the minors will pan out to be late inning guys.
  16. gunnarthor
    One thing to help Mauer will be that, by the time he's on the ballot, the HOF will have gone quite a while since it last inducted a catcher. (Assuming Pudge gets in within his first two years). Around the time he's on the ballot, there will be a strong push to put in Yadier Molina b/c "greatest defensive catcher" stuff but Mauer will look good in that comparison. A negative for him will be that the last few catchers inducted had a lot more longevity behind the plate.
  17. gunnarthor
    The Twins have a pretty good closer/set-up tandem already with Perkins, May and Jepsen. I think Burdi will pitch himself into that mix. Fien and Pressly can be solid guys. So really what they are looking for is a LH reliever and maybe a long man. The long man will probably be Nolasco. So, while another lefty would be nice, I think the Twins internal options are fine. I'd also be happy if we signed Clippard but I'm not going to freak out about not adding Bastardo.
  18. gunnarthor
    Yep, he did. He's wrong.
  19. gunnarthor
    I don't believe anyone suggested Hunter was a better candidate for the HOF than Edmonds (or Lofton). I certainly did not intend to suggest that, if it was me you think did that. I did say that on an uncrowded ballot, he might be able to stick around (unlike those two who were on crowded ballots). WAR is a bit interesting - by b-r it's about a 10 WAR difference while fWAR it's 25. I wonder if we'll ever move beyond WAR in grading our HOFers or move more toward it.
  20. gunnarthor
    I think if I had to rank their chances I'd go Mauer, Santana, Hunter, Nathan. I think Mauer's got strong support with voters who like WAR and his 3 batting titles will impress more traditional voters. But he really could use a rebound season or two. I've complained about this before but the HOF should be more about HOF seasons than career numbers and Santana had an absolute HOF peak, he should be in. He probably won't get in but he should. I think Hunter will stick on the ballot for 10 years. He got 50 WAR which is borderline but he was also seen as a leader and a good guy by most of the voters who might reward his intangibles. He also managed a crap ton of hits and had very few bad years. I suppose on a crowded ballot he could drop off like Edmonds and Lofton did but by the time he's on the ballot I think a lot of the logjams will be cleared up. I don't think Nathan makes it. He was dominating in the regular season but horrible in the post season and he played in an era where a lot of closers put up video game numbers.
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, Royals will still be the favorites but we'll see how their starting pitching goes. It could be just as bad or worse. Royals relief pitchers threw the 5th most innings last year in all of baseball (and first in the AL). They should be due for a bit of comedown just based on how good they were last year. But re-signing Gordon was really big for them.
  22. gunnarthor
    If healthy, I think they are ok. The backend of Perkins, Jepsen and May are pretty good. I doubt they blow that many leads, which is the important part. I like Pressly more than most and I love Burdi, who I think ends up as a major piece in the end. I think the pen is better than Chicago, Detroit or Cleveland. Sure, I'd love to add Clippard or another arm but the main issue is getting more IP from the starters.
  23. gunnarthor
    David Bromberg - I remember him. I used to have high hopes for him.
  24. gunnarthor
    The Twins aren't using stop gaps. They might give one or two spots to a bullpen reclamation arm. So what? It's not like there's only 8 spots in a bullpen. The Twins, like most teams, will use a bunch of arms next season. Their principle bullpen arms aren't going to be scrap heap guys. Right now, we're arguing about the opening day LOOGY. They'll be fine.
  25. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that could be true. I'm not going to be upset b/c we didn't get to pay 18m for Tony Sipp's age 32-34 seasons but I would be happy if he made a play for Storen or Clippard, too.
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