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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    That's a good point, too. RF isn't that big and Buxton in center should limit it even a bit more. He's a good athlete. Hopefully, this goes well.
  2. gunnarthor
    It's also probably fair to say that baseball hasn't had a lot of 260+ pound outfielders because baseball hasn't had a lot of 260+ pound players. The game and its athletes are changing dramatically. If you watch any ESPN classic baseball game from the 80s you'll see that the players today generally dwarf those guys. The time of the 6'2", 175 lb Jack Clark's playing corner OF and 1B is gone. So, while Sano might be rare now, he might not be all that rare in 5 years. We'll see.
  3. gunnarthor
    I remember at the time of the draft, I wanted the Twins to take Daz Cameron but I kept reading how Jay was going to be the Chris Sale of this draft and being linked to the White Sox and thought, man, why don't we ever nab that guy? So, it was a pleasant surprise. I think Johnson's draft strategies on pitching is interesting and it'll be fun to see if it pans out. I liked this pick though and being #5 seems about right.
  4. gunnarthor
    He should be good. I'm really excited about the bullpen we might end up having soon. Could be a lot like the old Nasty Boy Reds teams.
  5. gunnarthor
    Nice list. I know Walker's a bit of a divisive prospect but I really hope he gets it all figured out. It's nice to see some young players in the 11-20 range that might be able to make some big jumps this year. If Palacios can stick at short stop, the team really has some nice depth there in the minors. Thorpe had been ranked by BP on their top 101 a few years ago. Hopefully he gets back to where he was and continues to develop. Another good lefty would be really fun to have.
  6. gunnarthor
    I think Klaw ranked the system #3 overall but BA had them #10 overall. MLBpipeline is in the process of releasing their rankings. My guess is we'll be top 10 there as well. I'm not sure if BP or others have done team rankings.
  7. gunnarthor
    I asked my friend who is an international scout for the Royals if Park had seen ML quality sliders (not AAA) and he said no. He also said Park will need an adjustment period - not sure how long - but eventually he made a comparison to Magglio Ordonez by "the end of the year one."
  8. gunnarthor
    Man, 200 home runs would be great. I'd certainly take the under but let's go for it!
  9. gunnarthor
    I think the problem is the valuation and weight you put on your math numbers.
  10. gunnarthor
    David Schoenfeld at ESPN is a pretty constant critique of the Twins and often focuses on May being the lucky month. I posted it elsewhere but I don't really think the clustering of wins means much except to a narrative. I think you can certainly say that the Twins won more games than they were supposed to based on the RS v RA but even that should be given a grain of salt. The first week of the season was so bad it actually colored the results for the entire year. -28 RS in the first week, +24 for the rest of the year. Obviously, most teams will look better if you take out their worst week but that was still a really sizeable difference. In any event, I think the Twins team changed considerably over the year so I think the talent level we have is better than what the RS/RA suggests. And that talent should improve. That's generally why I'm optimistic about this season.
  11. gunnarthor
    Nice list, Seth.
  12. gunnarthor
    Hm, not sure what happened there. They projected 70 wins, and were off by 13.
  13. gunnarthor
    I don't think anyone disagrees with this point. I think the area of contention is how much of the Twins success is due to that. It is often mentioned that the Twins were lucky in May last year bu the numbers don't really suggest that - they hit the snot out of the ball in May. Their lucky month was actually August, at least runs-wise. The Twins weren't really unique clustering a lot of wins in a short period, which is what I think is part of this unstated criticisms of last years team. Houston started the season 30-17. The Twins best 47 game streak started about 4 weeks later and they went 27-20. Outside of those 47 game runs, both teams were 56-59 the rest of theway.
  14. gunnarthor
    I guarantee if we had Latos, people would be bitching about blocking Berrios, May and Duffey.
  15. gunnarthor
    We're better than the Sox.
  16. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I don't think that part is all the controversial. The Twins overachieved some last year (how much depends on how much you want to credit to luck or whatever) and they have a young group of players who may take a step back or might just take off. There's a lot of possibilities. Should be a fun season. Whether you want to put any weight on a system like PECOTA is up to you. I think they've shown they are pretty unreliable to the point that they should be mocked. But others may differ.
  17. gunnarthor
    Right, but does the base run formula use 10 runs = 1 Win or is it closer to 19 as the deviation point?
  18. gunnarthor
    How much is "quite a bit"? Is that a runs created model? Are the off and def equal in value? (The formula link doesn't work). If I'm reading this correctly (and there's a really good chance I'm not), the Twins should have given up 31.6 runs more on defense than they did. Are we using the 10 runs = 1 win thing here? Interestingly, the common refrain is that the Twins were lucky in May by clustering their hits but that's not quite true. In May the Twins were 4th in runs scored buy also 5th in OBP, 3rd in slg and 4th in wOBA. They earned those runs. Their "lucky" month was actually August. 6th in runs but 14th in wOBA.
  19. gunnarthor
    I figure they'll be similar record wise again 79-82 wins but hopefully behind us. I love Lindor - I think he'll be the best short stop in the majors - and the rotation is good. Although I'd be surprised if those 4 give them 120+ starts again.
  20. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that was Gleeman's way of obscuring PECOTA's unreliability. If you look at it year by year it's a bit different - 2010 - projected 82 wins - off by 12 2011 - projected 83 wins - off by 20 2012 - projected 71 wins - off by 5 2013 - projected 66 wins - perfect 2014 - projected 71 wins - off by 1 2015 - projected 82 wins - off by 12 So they were pretty good at saying the Twins would suck in 2013 and 2014 (big gamble there), were in the ball park in 2012 and no where close in 2010, 2011 and 2015. But Gleeman's tweet tries to imply that PECOTA was nearly spot on for the six years.
  21. gunnarthor
    This gets said a lot but is simply not true. PECOTA's projected standings are usually off by 6 games per team every year. And their projected order of finish isn't much more reliable, even within their own division. Last year, in the AL, their projected final standings were off completely - they missed on the correct order of finish of all 15 AL teams. Not one right and they only got two teams within one placement of their final standings. They were off on the final record of each team by an average of 9 games and only 4 teams were they even within 5 games for.
  22. gunnarthor
    Well sure, this is just back of the napkin stuff but generally, I think our lineup is better and deeper than theirs - substantially so, actually. I like their front of the rotation more. Bullpens could go either way. But I think we're past a point where we can say they have the better roster "on paper." I just don't think they do.
  23. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure that's even true, though. I think the Twins have the advantage at most positions now. Although some of that is based on projection since we don't know how some of our young guys will do this year. But I'd rather have Park at DH than LaRoche. I like Dozier and Plouffe over Lawrie and Frazier. Escobar over Saldino. I like our OF of Rosario/Buxton/Sano a lot more than their OF. They have an advantage at first base but even catcher might be a draw. They certainly have a better front of the rotation.
  24. gunnarthor
    I will say that Jose Quintana might be the most underrated good pitcher in baseball. Something about soft tossing 90 mph lefties gets people to underrate them. But he's really good.
  25. gunnarthor
    Sale's good and Rodon will be good but ... man, that's a tough roster to get excited about. I would think they are more likely to win 71 than 90. I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at moving Abreu at some point this season.
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