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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I think Rodon would go #1. Sean Reid Foley might jump up into the top 10. Schwaber would go to a DH team with what we know. So maybe Rodon (Astros get the pitcher they need) Turner (Miami) Schwaber (White Sox)? Conforto (Cubs. He'd look good in LF for them) Gordon? (Twins over Finnigan and Nola?) Knowing what I know now, maybe Reid-Foley?
  2. gunnarthor
    He's a fun prospect and probably our best pure hitting prospect since Sano. But he is far away. I like that the development people pushed him to E-town early. And I like that he was up for the challenge. I'm hoping for a Cuddy-like player with better defense.
  3. gunnarthor
    He had a nice season and he was a high ranked prospect but he's looked bad in his very limited ML appearances in the IF. We'll see if he can stick at short but I don't think he can - at draft time some scouts said he was a second baseman at this level. And his .388 babip and 4% walk rate probably suggest a bit of coming back to earth. And as we've seen with the Polanco discussion, moving a guy off of shortstop kills his future potential there. But the real problem is comparing a HS pick to college picks less than three years after the draft. Turner was the better prospect - so far - but the distance isn't so far between them as to end discussion. If you thought Gordon was the right pick on draft day there's really no reason to have buyer's remorse yet.
  4. gunnarthor
    I think it probably depends on what you think their jobs are. Klaw has been pretty complementary of the Twins scouting and development people, for instance and there is no doubt that the Twins success in the 2000s was in large part due to the development people. Because of the nature of the draft (and international signings) we usually have a 4-7 year drag time so changes made in 2012 might just being seen at the ML level and not recognized by fans and changes made in 2008 might be impacting the ML roster right now. My opinion is that the changes made by Steil have been very good on the development side. The drafts under Johnson were not as sound although they got better after Ryan put more oversight on him. I would expect that Falvey and Levine, both of whom came from orgs that did a lot of building from within would have an understanding of that process that is better than "Stewart isn't striking anyone out, the development squad has failed us." And we've seen them make changes in regards to Johnson and left Steil (and others) in place.
  5. gunnarthor
    I'd take Gordon over Nunez (and Vielma). And even if we redid the draft, I'm not sure if we'd take him over Nola who finished the year with elbow problems or Turner who has been moved off of short at the ML level already.
  6. gunnarthor
    Third base if the Sano experiment fails, second base if they trade Dozier, bench option if he's crap at short. Basically, he has to hit from the get-go to stay in the lineup with his defense. Escobar was a disaster last year but he looked pretty good - offensively and defensively - before that.
  7. gunnarthor
    I think Duffey will be a starter in AAA to start with. The new FO might let him have one more shot at starting before moving him to the pen.
  8. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure this is the big colossal problem people make it out to be. Polanco isn't a great option at short. That's been part of his scouting reports for years. He's a future second baseman and it's a reason some are concerned about the defense this year. At the start of last year, the Twins probably thought that short would be handled at the ML level by Escobar, Santana or Nunez and it was time for Polanco to focus on his actual position - second base. Turns out, Nunez did ok and Escobar had his worst season. I suppose you could argue that, come May, the Twins should have changed their strategy but I'm not sure since Dozier also looked DOA in May. I believe we had a few posts here saying it was time to promote Polanco to play second base over Dozier. In any event, I think Escobar will end up making more starts at short this year than Polanco.
  9. gunnarthor
    They've already made some pretty big changes by replacing Deron Johnson. Jay himself wasn't a bad pick and he had a lot of helium at the time, he certainly wasn't a reach. The rumors had the Twins on him, Carson Fulmer, Daz Cameron and Kolby Allard, IIRC. The Jay pick - like the Stewart pick - were high upside gambles. Jay arguably had the best stuff in the entire draft (Klaw specifically said so). Most observers thought he could make the transition to starter and his floor looked like a knock-out relief pitcher. The rub on Benintendi was his build - 5'10" - and weak arm.
  10. gunnarthor
    Surprised he's this low. I think pretty much every national ranking has him #1 in our system and for good reason. Not really much to say with him. He'll be 21 next year and in AA. He has a few things to work on - like every prospect - but he seems pretty likely to be a solid MLer.
  11. gunnarthor
    That video is two years old.
  12. gunnarthor
    He's an exciting prospect. I don't think it's too early to rank him this high - I believe a few places have him in our top 10. The fangraphs prospect guy said Javier has the most upside of anyone in the system and ranked him #6. Sickels had him #9 and also gushed about the possible tools.
  13. gunnarthor
    Why did Mejia only get 2 innings in the majors last year? That really bugged me. Unless he was hurt, the Twins really screwed up by not giving him a few spot starts down the line. I like Mejia. He is what he is but that's not a bad thing. Relatively high floor with that lower ceiling. I like having him in the pitching depth line over guys like Walters and Albers. Most of the national write ups on him have been relatively kind as well.
  14. gunnarthor
    This article also reminded me how excited I was for Burdi. sigh
  15. gunnarthor
    I guess Stewart is the one prospect I don't think there's really any reason to argue over. He's either going to improve his k-rate or bomb out in AA. There's no way he's getting through AA this year with a 4k/9. Sickel's write up mentions some of the concerns Thrylos mentions - erratic command. Hopefully, he puts it all together this year.
  16. gunnarthor
    I liked the Blankenhorn pick (and Cabbage). I agree that he's still too young and far away to get too excited about but it was nice to see him play well last year. But I don't necessarily think he's a bad pick for #9 in the org. Seems about right, actually.
  17. gunnarthor
    Feed em or free em. Both are good.
  18. gunnarthor
    I'm a non-profit attorney and we own tons of oil, gas and big banks. I figure my work offsets the damage to my soul. But we did balk at buying haliburtan.
  19. gunnarthor
    He's a pretty interesting prospect. A bit of a lottery ticket but a few lottery tickets have to hit, right?
  20. gunnarthor
    Ignoring ethics, I like oil right now. We paid off my law school loans because of an oil stock. We bought into some natural gas stocks a few years ago and made a second buy of the same stock as prices plummeted. Now we are starting to see them jump a lot. Keeping in mind that I'm just a dumb guy on the internet, I keep expecting oil to have another major dip before a real big spike. I very rarely try to time the market but I'm watching a stock named HP (Helmerich & Payne) pretty closely. We bought in 06 and sold it in 2014. If it falls into the 50s, I'll probably buy. It's an oil rig company with a great dividend and good leadership.
  21. gunnarthor
    They aren't recession proof but they bounced back pretty fast from the housing fiasco. The nice thing about Disney is that if the dollar gets weak, Disney World brings in a ton of international dollars as foreigners leap at the discount and things like their cartoons are always pretty popular. Parents buy those DVDs at Christmas time, recession or no recession. I'm still a little mad that I didn't buy into Disney a decade earlier when we really should have.
  22. gunnarthor
    I think the problem with Palka / Kiriloff comparisons is that Palka's weak spots - plate discipline - is a real issue that Kiriloff hasn't shown. Everyone knew Palka (and ABW) could hit the ball a mile. Frankly, the minors are full of hitters with plus or even plus plus power that never made it because they couldn't hit ML caliber pitching. I like Palka a lot and I think it was one of Ryan's sneaky trades. I'm actually optimistic on him and think he'll be a solid ML for a few seasons. But Kiriloff has the much higher ceiling, even if he's farther away. I think he's the better prospect.
  23. gunnarthor
    We own a bit of Disney. It's a good safe stock - I think my grandkids will be watching Disney cartoons 30 years from now. It has a nice dividend as well. We bought at 108 and 93, IIRC. I probably wouldn't jump in at 109 today if I overly cared about timing market (which I usually don't).
  24. gunnarthor
    I hope Morneau is the MVP of the tourney and gets a nice big league contract. Also, really exciting that Rodriquez made the PR team. Perhaps there's something there after all.
  25. gunnarthor
    Remember a few years ago when Tyler Kolek was extremely hyped HS RH pitching prospect? A lot of rumors that he'd go #1 overall but Houston took Aiken. Miami took Kolek, who is no longer on top 100 lists, and the White Sox took Rodon who is going to be a pain in the ass for Twins fans for a decade. Take the college arm.
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