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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    Baseball is such an interesting sport that building a team to make the playoffs does not mean you will win the playoffs, and so rarely the best team on paper win in the playoffs. It is a game of failures. The fact we have not won a single playoff game for 18 straight is actually kind of crazy. They are different teams at different times and continue to fail. I mean how many teams in history has had 18 game losing streaks ever, not too many. The trend that I always found was we never seemed to play like we did during regular season and teams would jump on our mistakes and we would fail to jump on theirs. In short series those mistakes get highlighted so much. I also think over the years different little things can be pointed out that led to failing. You play the season to make the playoffs and hope you are hot when get there. A single additional player will make little difference in the playoffs. We talk about the need to add pitcher x or player y but we have no clue how either will do until the game is played. Over the long haul we may have idea which player will have more value, but in that single game or series we have no clue. I am looking forward to the season and hope we can finally get it done.
  2. Trov
    I always liked him and his heads up defensive plays when he would range up middle throw home on the guy breaking from second hoping to score. He was just too streaky to count on to be the go to offensive guy. When he was on he could carry the team, but when he was off he would drag them down hoping he would get hot again. How many seasons would half the year he be well below replacement but other half be MVP level offense?
  3. Trov
    I am big on this kid. He seems to be that under the radar guy that Faleve seems to be known for identifying. How many under the radar guys was he credited for helping draft or trade for in Cleveland? I am not saying he will be future Cy Young winner, but have high hopes for him.
  4. Trov
    Yeah that trade for Sox will go down as an all time worst, even if Tatis does not live up to the contract. Shields did nothing for them. Not sure where Tatis would have played but they would have found a spot. In terms of the contract, it is a huge risk, but now it is a fixed risk. Sure he can have career ending injury, but insurance would cover that so that is little risk there, the bigger risk is injury that lowers his production. I think it is not a bad contract for the team. If it is the player they expect it is less than what you can expect he would get over that time. I am not an expert, but think he falls under super 2. At being MVP level if that continues he would be on Mike Trout level money by time he would be set to be FA at age 26. This gives him basically an 10 year deal at that age while buying out his arbitration years. I bet if they waited he would be looking at much more, unless he does not progress at rate he has been.
  5. Trov
    I never said he was not the right pick, I just said not a fan of those type of prospects overall. He may have been the best available and I defer to the FO on that. Yes, you can get decent defenders that do not hit great for cheap contracts, and do not advocate for drafting guys that are not expected to hit. However, if you draft a guy that is only expected to hit, and he does not then he has no value to your team in the future. Also, if they can only hit and not field, unless it is at an extremely elite level, they have little value as well. My point was, guys that can do more than just hit HR, will have fall back plans if the HR do not carry over to pro ball. Maybe Sabato will be an elite hitter and HR hitter and I will be happy, but if he is not, then there is nothing else there and no fall back for him.
  6. Trov
    Agreed that outside of those positions offense is needed. However, if they can be average on offense and average on defense they will still have a home, and may not be the high end guy you would hope for, but still provide value. Could Sabato turn into a good defender at 1B and then you can live with average output there, okay, but overall my point is I am not a fan of guys that only value possibly is HR. Not saying he was the wrong pick or anything, but not a big fan of those types. Yes, many fans were down on Buxton until he was putting up some offense, but I was not one of them because I knew what he could do on defense was better than anyone we had. Now that he is at least average overall with stints above average he is viewed as a much better player than before, but he still had great value when he was hitting below .200.
  7. Trov
    Is there evidence that Falvene has manipulated service time in their tenure. I mean legit manipulate that many are expecting for Kirilloff? I am not sold that if he hits well in spring that he will not break with team, simply to get one more year of team control or an extra half a year of cost control. Maybe they will, but I do not recall a player they have actually done that too. Of course if he does not hit well in spring this will give good reason to keep him down, but if he rakes, I think he will break with team. If Arraez does play LF it will not help our defense at all. Unless he has increased his range I can see way too many balls falling in his area. The only way I let him go out there regularly is if he is hitting amazing. Happy Hamilton passed waivers, mainly for his sake because he has bounced around so many teams. I bet we will see him during the season. Many times teams will wait until after rosters set to pass guys through waivers to make room again. When the market gets flooded with waiver guys teams have more decisions to make on claiming.
  8. Trov
    This will be big year for this kid. He will need to make strides to be considered still a good prospect. Not that he will be given up on, but if he does not show some strides others will start to pass him by on the pecking order.
  9. Trov
    I disagree that almost all are boom or bust. There are many that may not become the offensive player expected or wished, like Buxton overall, but end up still being a good player because of defense. Pitchers that settle into decent bull pen pitchers are not busts, but never become great starters. With guys like Sabato, if he never hits well, he well never find a place on a major league roster, where guys that can defend well will find places, unless they are so bad hitting that you would rather have a pitcher hit than them. Even then, some teams will still be willing to have them play once in awhile if they provide great defense.
  10. Trov
    I have always been and advocate for pitching and defense first to win championships. Yes, offense is important but giving up good defense for offense normally does not pay off. One case in point the White Sox in 2005, they won the ship and had great defense. Then they traded Rowand to Phillies. He was average hitter, but good defender. Sox started to fall and Phillies rose up. Now of course other players were involved in all this, but point is, a good defender saves runs, and pitches thrown. It does not always show up in boxscores but makes big differences.
  11. Trov
    I am not expecting big things from him, but I do love guys like him in the organization. They worked their butts off to get to the show. They learned how to get it done when scouts were not drooling over them. He just kept working and putting up numbers that team could not ignore. They are the types of guys that will do what it takes to stick around and help the team.
  12. Trov
    I am never a fan of these type of prospects. They offer no defense and all offense. If they never develop the offense that you expect then they have no value. He may be a great hitter in the league and help the team in the future, but he is full boom or bust type.
  13. Trov
    I personally think Target field is pitcher friendly, but at very least more neutral. The dimensions are deep enough and walls high enough to not be a HR hitter dream, but there is not a ton of foul territory. I have always felt to played pretty fair across the board.
  14. Trov
    I think this will help our pitchers more than hurt our hitters. The 2019 "Bomba Squad" was not the plan going in. It was the result of the team and we expected similar results 2020, which did not happen. Now, if all the teams come back to some normal HR rates, that will help our pitchers with what should be a decent defense, depending on health. I do not expect a whole lot to change with the teams offensive thoughts. Mainly I expect they will still look at attack fastballs in the zone and try to hit ball hard. For most part, if you hit the ball hard good things happen more often. Looking forward tot he season.
  15. Trov
    I would be okay with Dobnak and still love his story getting him to majors. He needs to learn how to get guys out faster though. He does not have miss stuff too much and so many foul balls are hit off of him. I think Simmons will be a huge difference maker for Dobnak and hope he gets another chance. I would not mind Odo coming back with the expected dead ball, or deader than last couple years, would help him a ton too. Similar issue with him is too high pitch count in a few innings. I know Twins hate sending starter out for third time through rotation anyways so high pitch count for 5 innings does not affect too much how they manage going forward. The prospects will not break with the team unless they are unhittable in spring or injuries to guys ahead of them.
  16. Trov
    If he shows good enough command and not just rely on the high velo I bet he moves quickly this year and if needed may get a call. This FO is not afraid of moving guys quickly if they feel they have the stuff. He will be one I will be checking in on in minor league reports.
  17. Trov
    I am looking forward to this minor league season, normally try to follow each level and last year was sad. This year will be very interesting because with the lost year we will need push guys up and not take the slower steps. I mean every player is in same boat, but will be interesting to see who performs and who does not.
  18. Trov
    I think Ober was hurt a lot by lack of minor league year. He is a fringe guy because his velo is not there, but velo does not equal success always. He seems to miss bats and that is key. Now, the question for him is did he just out pitch young guys, and when he faces more seasoned hitter his lack of velo will be an issue. Personally, I am not a guy that looks at velo anymore. Years ago when a guy threw 95 plus it was a big deal and sometimes that could get job done. Guys that get by with 90's and movement to me is something to look at. They will know how pitch to a guy use movement and hit all the zone to get outs. I do not care how fast you through if you get the outs.
  19. Trov
    Early results you can say Twins win, but Dodgers gave up an extra starter they were barely using for a piece they needed. If you look just at numbers Twins win, but do not feel Dodgers really lost either. Time will tell in long run, but think it will be a win win for both clubs.
  20. Trov
    I can get why PECOTA ranked sox where they are. They did not perform well against good teams last year. They crushed Det and KC and PIT, but beyond that they were at or below .500 against everyone else. Yes some were only 3 games played and went 1-2. However, the point is, when they have less percent of games against DET and KC counting for overall standing they will not look as good. Sure, they may beat up on other lower teams, but DET and KC really swung the standings for Sox. PECOTA could be way off and Sox do well, but I can see where the rankings came from.
  21. Trov
    I sure hope the Twins do not try to manipulate service time of Kiriloff. One, after next CBA I expect a very different service time clock as that is a huge issue with players right now. It was less of issue when 29 or 30 first time FA were still getting big contracts but now that they are not seeking earlier FA is a huge thing for players. Two, if I was a player I would never sign back with a team that did this, nor would I sign any team friendly deals during arbitration times, similar to what Kepler did. I know nothing about Kiriloff personality or what drives him for making decisions, but for me, any time a team manipulates service time I would never want to deal with that team again. I get the benefit to a team like the Twins, but gaining 1 year of control or one extra half year of cheap control should have consequences. Also, you should want to put out the best team all season long, the games in April count just as much as the ones in September.
  22. Trov
    As much as I want to root for Astudillo, mainly because he has the look of the average weekend warrior softball player and root for him. He loves to play and no one expects much from him. However, if he takes up a roster spot all year I feel we are not putting out our best lineup. Yes, he can provide a third catcher, but subpar defense. He seems to be a nice guy, and would be a huge fan fav when we are putting up 100 loss seasons, but when looking to make playoffs his value is just too low across the board. I would like to see him playing in St. Paul ready to hit the I94 drive should we need him to be back up catcher for a short period. Other than that I would not like to see him on the 26 man roster.
  23. Trov
    Notice how all five are HOF players? It shows only a few can put up big numbers late in career, and that makes them HOF. Very few players can produce in late 30's and beyond. Cruz will not put up the overall WAR due to being just a DH. I think he will put up fine enough numbers for the year to justify being the DH. If he is our best offensive player that maybe good because I expect decent offense, but I do not think he will be best offensive guy. I think he will be lower in lineup, but maybe not. He may keep raking, and I hope he does. The question is what will be considered good season for him? I sure hope he plays the full year and drives in another 100 with 30 plus HR. I also feel he brings good things to clubhouse too that you do not see on the field each day, but pays off in long run.
  24. Trov
    Do you really think Bauer opts out after first season? You think he will leave 45 mil, expecting more? I mean maybe he could get more but that may be a hell of a gamble. I think he only opts out after year 2 of the deal, when he would be set to make only 17 mil.
  25. Trov
    Bauer has very interesting contract. He gets huge money for two years, but can opt out after any season as well. So with 102 over three years and 40 plus 45 for first two he will be down to only 17 for last year. Unless he is injured no way will he be there for year three at 17 mil. So really he signed a two year 85 mil deal, because I doubt any team next year will give him 45. He gets paid huge for two years and protects himself incase of injury for a third year, or get paid 17 mil in a potential bounce back if his injury is prior to that. Good for him. He will also be getting paid more than the entire Pirates team.
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