ShouldaCouldaWoulda

Was reading somewhere that they didn't think Gonsalves' stuff would play up very well. Hope that's wrong.

It would be one thing if his numbers were just a little worse this year, as that's not a big deal, as long as he's the same pitcher. But, a pitcher isn't the same guy he used to be once he starts losing velocity. He can still be good, but can't be viewed as he was before. Verlander, Sabathia, Lincecum, etc. doesn't matter their handednes or size, once they lose velocity they just can't be viewed as what they once were. You can still be a good pitcher womithout great velocity, but every pitcher tends to be not quite as good with every tick on the clock they lose. It makes their breaking and off speed stuff less tricky too. Jonathon Gray was a beast in college a few years ago. He's lost velocity and had been a shell of what people thought he'd be.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to his previous years numbers. The loss in velocity scares too much for a pick this high. I'm guessing there is an underlying injury there. Unless the velocity comes back before the draft magically, stay away. Take the best bat available, that is a competent fielder.

Let's be honest, statistics are usually overwhelming...even for the most of us on here. Sure, most of us understand the value of the newer simple stats, like OPS+ or DRS, but there are just so many micro-stats that are hard to understand the meaning of in the correct context, and how to add all of those together to find future success in certain areas and for certain players. I do think that, overall, many of us tend to subconsciously see the Twins as "Old School." Part of that is the "Twins Way" type of generalizations over the years. It almost feels like the Twins were ahead of the curve in the past by the "Twins Way" approach, but that has now passed them by. Small things like the Twins seeming to favor scouting and "toolsy" guys in drafts seems to be another area that they are less reliant on statistics or analysis, and sometimes that works out even. Again, the Twins just "feel" like an organization less reliant on statistical analysis. That of course does not mean that it is true by any means. It is the bias that most of us has grown to believe, and we therefore look for confirmations of our biases. I am certainly VERY guilty of this. We might be right even, but we don't know. Comments like TR saying that 5 good SP's give us a better chance to make the playoffs, than do 1 ace and company. He is probably right about that, but that also depends on what he defines what "good" SP is. I still believe that a few stud SP's or at least 1, can be supplemented with fairly good SP's with the same amount of money than it would be to get 5 good SP's. Obviously, combining Nolasco + Santana+ Pelfy money could get us a pretty good SP, and still leave us with options in the minors or cheaper dumpster diving options, which is supposed to be TR's strong suite anyway. But, at least the guy is weighing these things out with some sort of game theory approach that is purposeful, which I can take comfort in. I don't need to agree with it. I do wonder on how much we are using stats, in what areas, and to what degree. Are we digging deep? Is it all done in general by the same people, or is it split up into micro areas by different people? How is this information being translated and explained to the FO and coaching staff and players? How closely and well do the analysts and staff communicate, or analysis and FO? We don't know any of that, and likely won't know it. I sometimes wonder if a baseball team would be ran well if it was put together more like a football coaching staff. With specific specialized coaches for defense, hitting, catching, and pitching. I know we have those coaches, but it usually seems like just some random title that guys get placed into. Instead of defensive gurus, or the like. Then, those coaches should their own specific staff of analysts breaking down their area of specialties. The team manager just needs to be explained the simplified explanation of what they are doing, but just let them do there thing, unless you want to overrule certain things. Then, a whole other set of analysis's working with the FO for what players to aim to get or trade for in the draft, international market, FA's, and trades. Not just some analysts that cover it all, and coaches coaching everything in general. Just my thoughts, but that probably made no sense anyway.

Is it possible that Pinto, and possibly Arcia end up 1B/DH? Seems as though that is where both of those two best would fit defensively. Failed corner OF's and bad catchers move to 1B next, then DH if they can't make it there either.

I really like Plouffe and have always rooted for him to succeed. However, I agree that he is doubtful to get much better and the Twins would probably be served best to sell high...if he is still playing well at the trade deadline. Even if Sano is not ready yet, I think we should just slide Escobar over to 3rd until he is ready. The only way I think it is worth keeping him is if we decide to put Mauer in the OF, which I wish they would. We have too many other 1B/DH only types that need to be occupying that position now and longterm. Joe's numbers aren't great there and they won't ever look any better. His numbers would look just fine in LF and he'd likely play it better than Arcia. Then Sano, Arcia, Vargas, or Pinto could fight take over at 1B and DH. Keeping Mauer at 1B is not good for the teams development. I'm not saying that I don't think Mauer is good 1B, but it just doesn't make sense with our roster going forward. We might be forced to package some of these wounded moose young sluggers, if we are adamant at keeping Mauer at 1B.

I am pretty excited about just how dominant that Milone has been. It is not just a great era, but absolutely dominant too. I too pause with the first two AAA starts, as it seems that crafty soft tossers minor league numbers can be deceiving. Seems That most soft toss guys numbers don't translate well to the big leagues, whereas guys with stuff/velocity can actually improve their numbers. My first thought was just another Andrew Albers or Scott Diamond- nothing to get excited about. But, its been three starts in a row of beast-mode, and he has my attention. I figured the Twins are eyeing May as the guy to send down, but that would disappoint me a little. As Danchat stated, his FIP is great and if you have watched the games he has passed the eye test....his defense- not so much. He has had some really bad luck that has turned into runs in all of the games that I have watched. He honestly looks like our best pitcher when I watch him this year. Although, Hughes hasn't looked bad and has been unlucky too. I have enjoyed, but not bought into the Gibson and Pelfrey numbers. Maybe they just wait it out for another rotation or two, to see who falters and if Milone can keep it up.

I am a little worried about some offensive numbers "as a whole" amongst our prospects and young MLB guys. I am a little worried about the approach/plate discipline/contact of the guys we are supposed to be counting on down the road. If you K a lot, you had better bb a lot, and you better make contact. For instance, Sano K's a lot, but at least he draws bb's. Guys can mature with mechanics and experience, but usually these things are not flukey and are pretty consistent for the most part. I highlighted in RED the numbers that I am most concerned about in with certain players. There is a better way of doing this I know, but I just thought this might be something to talk about. Young core in MLB current BB%/K%/outside of zone swing rate/Contact rate Santana 1.5 %/26.2 %/43.9%/73.8% Escobar 2.1 %/23.7 %/40.2%/76.9% Arcia 6.2 %/23.1 %/42.3%/66.2% Vargas 6.5%/26.2%/33.2%/70.9% Rosario 0%/37%/51.2%/57.9% AAA guys and numbers BB% and K% only Hicks 12.2%/16.3% Pinto 10.3%/25.9% Rosario 5%/17% AA BB% and K% only Sano 14.1 %/25.9 % Buxton 8.2 %/19.0 % Walker 6.3 %/32.8 % Polanco 5.3 %/16.0 % Kepler 4%/8% A+ Granite 9.5 %/15.9 % A Gordon 5.2 %/17.9 %

Anyone know if Meyer's velocity is down? If so, he might be masking an injury or trying to hard to ramp it up, with it not being there. Would be nice to know.

I've been extremely nervous about Buxton the past six months or so. The one 4 bit game didn't really change that. He does seem to be playing a bit better, so hoping this trend sticks. I'm still cautiously skeptical, but hoping for the best. We need you to come through Buxton...no pressure.

I read in a few places that Nolasco's velocity was up from last year (90) and this year (89), to now being 92-94 in his rehab start. That has to be a flaw in the lower level ball park, right?!? No way he can all of a sudden gain velocity over a week or so, after declining last year, and in the offseason. Or, did they fix something with him; mechanics, a shot, therapy stuff, or other medical fix? This can't be due to just rest, as he wouldn't have been even tired at this point. I'm guessing faulty radar and exaggerated information.

My gut tells me the Twins should take a college arm that is closer to being ready. It would be nice for our prospects to come up all around the same time, and to have options for the fact some just won't pan out. Want someone who will be coming up a year or two after Meyers, Berrios, and May have built some experience. And with same groups as Stewart and Thorpe, and other. Just my thoughts, and thought it would be a good strategy to draft HS talent for a few years, and then college talent for a few years. That way you have 4-5 years of talent all around the same age and gelling together. Then, restart that process. Of course, best available should be taken, if it's obvious.

What is the general feeling on Santana's defense so far by you guys? He seems erratic and scatterbrained to me. Maybe I'm not seeing things right though. I have a gut feeling that Buxton will be held down all year, or until September. Santana to CF and Escobar back to SS seems like it might be necessary, whether the Twins want to or not. Guessing Santana's defense will get better throughout the season, but just much better?

Those last two hits to the OF sure highlight the Twins horrible OF defense. Both those balls are caught by average left and right feilders. Arica also made that last out look difficult, when it was quite routine.

I think that the one thing that we need to keep in mind is the tendency for people in general to talk about things that are good/bad, and average does not worth speaking on. The Twins honestly objectively don't have a lot to positively speak about at the major league level, while there is plenty of bad standing out. That can be someone who is perfectly well adjusted, yet openly self-deprecating in a good natured way. Or, the way we are able to see the flaws or lacking areas in our most loved/liked ones, yet still like and love them. I LOVE the Twins! It is the only MN team that I have never just stopped watching or rooting for in any season, even though I openly critique them. I do not feel bad about voicing their (glaring) faults these past several years. It is normal and healthy. I think that many of us who are negative at times, are or have also been very positive too, but just feel the "It is all going to be awesome very soon" is wearing on everyone, and maybe its time to even question if that looks to be so certain with the stumbles and injuries of our prospects and the competitiveness of the other teams in the division. I am excited for baseball and I am excited to watch the Twins, but I was expecting a bad season this year. Honestly, there might be one or two more after this, unless all these young guys pan out. Thing is, these guys cannot expect to produce right away without MLB experience. The longer we keep these guys down...the further we push all of their learning curves back, which in turn prolongs the losing. May and Meyer are not young prospects, and they aren't just going to suddenly not walk guys with any consistency in AAA. They are who they are at this point, and anything they can adjust in AAA can be adjusted in the show. We are wasting their innings and risking injuries where they do not count for anything. We have too many decent young guys with similar profiles, in that they have big bats and big bodies, bad plate discipline and contact, with no range or gloves. Arcia, Pinto, Vargas, and Sano. Mauer is also blocking these guys at an ideal spot to place one of them, and Pino just isn't realistically ever going to learn to be a league average catcher...or anything close. I like, if not love, all of those young hitters, but they do not fit well together, and we need to recognize that is a problem. SS? Santana and Escobar. Are they both young studs, is just one of them, or are they both over hyped by us homers and become busts? I don't know, but they are more likely to be both busts, than they are to be studs. I am hoping one of them pans out, and my bet is that Escobar gets his job back in mid to late May. Everyone knows regression is/was coming with Santana, but how bad will it be? I am thinking he might be moved back to CF the minute Buxton appears to be further away than thought...which, will coincide with that Escobar prediction above. Which leads me to my final "young guy" worry...because I HATE separating MiLB and MLB young guys. I never understood the over emphasis on MiLB system prospects, while ignoring young players within a system as whole. BUXTON. What do we have in him. I love this guys tools, and he seems like a great kid, with a great work ethic too. Totally rooting for him. But, I started to get a little worried when he struggled last year, and then got hurt, and then struggled in the Fall, and then got hurt. When was the last time he succeeded and at what level was that at? No, the sky is not falling with him, but it is maybe about time to start taking caution when assuming he is coming up soon, or that he will ever be an all-star, or even a good pro. Now, I think he will be a good pro at least. I really do. I just am pumping the breaks a bit, due to recent trends with him. I held these thoughts since he struggled and got hurt the first time. And then today I read this in a Dave Cameron chat at Fangraphs (dude isn't exactly an idiot either.) 12:26 Comment From Michael: Of the consensus top 100 prospects who, after Baez, can you forsee being a bust at the MLB level 12:26: Dave Cameron: I’m super low on Archie Bradley. And I’m not sold on Buxton, to be honest. Yikes, that hurt, even though I was already harboring that fear. It just hurt more to read someone I liked to read say that, without being directly asked about him. It is just something we need to consider. Now, on the positive! I do think that Sano WILL be a stud and I think it will be very soon. I also think that Berrios will be a stud and soon too. I think that May and Meyer will be decent to good in the rotation, or awesome in the pen. I also think the RP's like Burdi will be awesome, just rush them up before they lose velocity- It happens, so bring them up the second they are better than what you have. I don't think we reach .500 this year, but I don't think it will be as bad. I will watch nearly every night. I will cheer on every win and comeback. But, I will also be honest and feel no shame in calling out the front office for 25 man roster. Which, with every passing day, I am carrying less and less about anyone who is not on the 25 man roster. Go Twins. I love you and I hate you, but mostly love you. And I will never leave you. Just for F's sake, speed up this whole process and move in the next generation faster than you should, rather than slower. I am begging.

Think this all much to do about nothing, for the most part. Not many guys, let alone veterans, handle demotions of any kind well. He probably convinced himself that it came down to his spring training numbers vs the competition, and thought he earned/deserved the job. Human nature to be selective in how and what you use to justify your roles. I'm guessing he felt all the bad should be forgotten, and only his spring numbers looked at.

Fudge Brownie Goldfish Graham's.

I am sorry Mr. Urlacher.

A few exact height and weight NFL athletic freak comps, for athletic comparison. Figured bringing in a little football makes sense since we can see easier what one can do athletically on the FB field. #40- Brian Orakpo Outside Linebacker, Washington Redskins 6'4, 260 lbs. Feat of Strength/Workout: 31 reps of 225 lb. bench press, 515 lb. bench press, 380 lb. power-clean, 4.63 sec. 40 time, 39.5" vertical leap #35- Connor Barwin Outside Linebacker, Houston Texans 6'4, 260 lbs. Feat of Strength/Workout: 40.5" vertical leap ............ On the other hand, James Winston was rumored to be out of shape, and was 6'4'' and 231 at the combine, but was probably heavier leading up to it. That is 30 pounds lighter and was considered out of shape. Several NFL players with similar heights and weights playing TE, FB, DE, ILB, and OLB. I know Sano doesn't play in the NFL, but just trying to give an easy comp to look at what guys that size are capable of. 6'4'' and 260 could be a freak OLB or TE, or 6'4'' and 260 could be the catcher on your beer league softball team who always gets a pinch runner. It could be this guy...... http://i180.photobucket.com/albums/x83/ryanf1990/21fz2.jpg?t=1192966861 or..... it can be this guy..... http://i190.photobucket.com/albums/z35/morningbake34/week33.jpg

He could try changing shampoos.

I remember reading an article last year about guys with slower bat speeds, and Joe was one of the main players mentioned. The article pointed out that his name was surprising because he was usually one of the faster bat speeds in the past. I believe they used contact vs pitches above 95 mph as an example, and he was one of the worst. Too lazy to find this article though. Guessing we are watching a still great Joe Mauer, but in a decline.

I kinda feel like May and Meyer do not have a chance, regardless of how they pitching spring training. They will find a narrative to keep them in the minors, and somehow bring them up May/June. I think the approach of keeping hitters in the minors to save money might make some sense, but I do not agree with it for pitchers. I would rather draft power arms, move them up quickly before they lose velocity and become damaged goods, use them up while they are young, and then sell high while they are still young, but haven't broken down yet. Seems to what the A's have done often.

I have never heard of this before and am loving this information.

Amen, I ranted about this a while back. MLB club wins in the future also factor in young talent already in the majors and also the amount of $ a team is willing to spend to fill holes in FA now and in the future. A good farm system helps, but it really is not a predictor of future MLB success by any means. I just saw ESPN came out with their "future rankings," which factors in a multitude of variables, and I believe the Twins were ranked in the second half. Also, the Twins are about mid pack in 25 and under rankings, which also factor in an organizations MLB roster, and not just their minor league systems. I never understood the importance of ranking minor league systems, while ignoring the best young players in the league, who make it to the majors and gain experience early. Those guys have more influence on future success anyway.

...Meaning, he might be a useful player on our team, but it is downright sad if we are trying to contemplate whether this guy is going to be a good player, let alone a serviceable starter.