ShouldaCouldaWoulda

That a boy Torii......(Just earned being brought back next year)

Nice, like how they addressed both the question of when will May be transitioned back, and will Pelfreys role be addressed. It is not just us.

Maybe I am not looking hard enough, but it doesn't seem anyone has held the FO or Molier's feet to the fire over Pelfrey still being in the rotation. Have they addressed this anywhere, and I just missed it? I can just imagine if they were asked about Pelf tonight, that is would sound something like...... "The big guy did his job keeping us in the game tonight....wasn't his fault..."

...compared to......?

I wonder if he didn't mean the super 2 service time clock, but delaying that by another year...if he continued to struggle. As in, if he didn't get hurt, he likely would have been sent down again. It is possible that we could have tried to push back his FA, or even Super another year if he was struggling and we were continuing to get production out of Rosario and Hicks, and we were out of the hunt.

I bet the Twins take it really slow with Buxton. If they are still in the hunt in 3 weeks he will be up, otherwise they probably keep him down with some sort of developmental excuse, and then try to keep him the minors until May or June next year too. They will be buying time for now, in order to decide to delay some more clock or use him in a contention run. Of course, I am mostly being sarcastic with that approach, but sadly I would not be surprised if it was spot on.

I am not even kidding when I say that it is not any guarantee that Twins won't be in the AL Central cellar again this season. It isn't probable, but it is certainly plausible. The way we are currently playing, along with the other teams rosters, it really is something that could happen. Fangraphs projects the Twins to have the worst winning% the rest of the season.

Well, if Berrios is not in the rotation to begin the season there should be an uproar. He should be in the rotation or pen by now.

I am not simply going off of May being dominant lately and Jepsen looking bad in his first outing. I am also going with they way they have spoken about May, as well as the way they used him in the extra innings loss. In that tied game they had the whole pen available. In a tied 9th inning they went with their best option in Perkins, which is what several teams do in that situation. If you are still tied in the 10th inning and you feel you have to use your best options in those situations, and Perkins was already used? You likely go next best option. They used May in that situation, then Jepsen.

I am pretty sure May is the 8th inning guy and Jepsen the 7th inning guy. We just haven't had the opportunity to see this yet.

I would not think that TR "overvalues" RP's by any means, but he MAY undervalue what skills and #'s are actually important in RP's. If this trade was for Jepsen of 2014 I'd be very excited, but he is not the same pitcher and his velocity is down...and yes, that does matter. His K% has likely been directly effected by that.

Oh, and Hu probably never becomes much of a MLB player, based on just mere odds and time taking its tole. I will be fine with this in mind, and......if and only if, they bring up Berrios like within a few weeks in ANY role, get Pelfrey out of the rotation. Also, would completely forget about all of this if Jepsen stays at his current level, they make these roster changes, and if Meyer figures it out in the bullpen by September. Just trying to be positive, as the higher ups on this board seem to get snarky at any complaining or negativity, no matter how obvious and warranted it may be.

On the surface, I am disappointed and feel this is about what would be done. I mentioned earlier that I was fine with the Twins standing pat and not trading, but if they were going to go after a RP...make sure he has a k/9 north of 8. Well, that didn't go well. On the optimistic side; He throws 94.5 mph, his ERA is fine, has a higher K% than our other setup options, has shown success in the past, and will also be here next year. On the negative; ERA is not a big deal in the bullpen as peripherals are a much much bigger tell, his velocity is down, so expecting his K% to rise back to last seasons is not likely, his FIP and xFIP are in the 4's, looks like a 6th or 7th inning guy on a decent team, which is fine if that is where we would pitch him, we gave up a good prospect. I will end with one more positive. Though his velocity being down will likely keep him from returning to any previous form, there is one positive possibility I see........all of his pitches are in the positive/100 pitches on Fangraphs, but his Change is a -3.99! So, maybe his former pitching coach saw something he thinks he can fix with his Change up here. Now, he only throws the Change about 7% of the time, so this probably won't do much, but looking for one last morsel of hope. Bottom line, yes he is an improvement upon what we have. However, not the type of addition that deserve any sort of confidence building in the FO or bullpen. This does make our team better, but not by much, and we were looking for something better than this. Lets hope he can pick up his K% or rely on lucky ERA, so the overly loyal can spout out that "he's getting the job done." Kinda like Fein last night...didn't give up any runs, but it didn't look pretty at all and was lucky nothing dropped in for hits.

Rossario has been nice, but I just get this very strong feeling that he is simply this years version of Danny Santana. High BAIP, doesn't walk, not much power, and decent OF defense. He is probably playing at the highest level he ever will in his career.

The Twins have put themselves in a tough situation by (likely) outperforming their true talent level. I am not sure there are really any deals that make us a contender come playoff time, that does not hinder our talent level in the next few years. I love how this season has gone and its been a blast to follow, but at no point have I had the feeling that this team could win a playoff series, let alone even a one game wildcard playoff game. We just aren't likely there yet. I personally feel that our best bet is to promote our young talent ASAP and hope that they can get experience and confidence by the time the playoffs begin...if we'd be in it. Promote the pitchers with the most dominating stuff, and get their feet wet in low leverage situations. If they fail in limited time..give them more time. Give them a REAL look. Meyer and Berrios should both be up ASAP in any fashion they want to use them, but get them experience NOW. Like I said, it does not have to be in high leverage situations, so if they falter its not a big deal. But, if they pan out, you keep moving them into more important roles. Trading for a RP would be fine, but only if it is someone that has a K/9 north of 8 please! And, only if it doesn't cost a future useable piece to the puzzle. Adding another mediocre SP just is adding to the same problem we have, and adding a rental legit SP still won't put us in a position to win in the playoffs this year and might hinder our future.

Any worry about Gonsalves' first two starts? I read in a few spots that he shouldn't be thought of as too much of an MLB talent, as his stuff wouldn't likely play up very well. With his first two starts at A+ matching that belief, should we be a little less excited about his hot A- start? Or is this just an adjustment period? Or a little of both?

"Kohl Stewart had a nice outing, despite a couple of defensive miscues that led to some unearned runs. Stewart pitched six innings, gave up only one earned run, walked three and struck out one." Yikes, not too promising. I guess we can hope that he can be a Gibson or Hudson, but definitely disappointed with his numbers and development the past few years. I have a feeling that he will continue to plummet down or off of prospect lists. My hope is that they are forcing him to pitch a certain way and making him hold off on his stuff, but I doubt this is the case. The sample size is getting larger by the day, and K%'s tend to stabilize quickly and not jump up or down too much from year to year, and this is all happening in A ball. Does anyone know what his velocity was coming in and what its been sitting at currently? What type of pitches are he throwing and frequency? Kinda stopped even getting excited to check the boxscores when he pitches. Dufey? Well, it was fun while it lasted, but hope he can turn it back around. At least Buxton is giving us hope again, and that is the most important piece anyway, right? Sano is doing well too, so happy thoughts.

I like his bat. I can't say much more than that. Did he not have an error in this game too? On the longterm, with Dozier blocking Polanco at 2B...how feasible is that Dozeir could play a serviceable 3B? Does he have the arm for it? Just curious. Yes, I know that we CURRENTLY have Plouffe there and playing well, as well as Sano at 3B in AA. However, there is certainly no guarantee that Plouffe continues to play good defense and its not like his bat is that good and consistent that we should count on offense from him in the future. And of course Sano is no guarantee to stick at 3B, and he could be shifted to 1B or a corner OF spot in the future too. We have to assume that the future composition of this team will change. We can't assume that Joe will block everyone at 1B forever. Polanco at 2B, Dozier at 3B, and FA defensive specialist at SS? I just personally feel that if you aren't going to get first or second tier production out of your 1B that you are better off just getting an elite defensive SS instead. I don't think Polanco, Santana, or Escobar should be considered great hitters, and they are certainly flawed defensively. Longterm this is, not for now. I don't see the Twins making any changes at SS with both Santana and Polanco being young. Maybe Polanco's bat is better than I consider it, but I just don't think his bat makes up for his glove at this point. Keep in mind, our staff or pen is allergic to striking guys out, so the more glove the better.

Making a football reference, he reminds me of the otherworldly fast/explosive WR that can't catch or run a route other than a 9. The power=speed, bb's=route running, and contact or K's=catching the ball. Maybe a Troy Williamson for Vikings fans. Although it is entirely possible that ABW somehow harnesses his immense athletic ability, while also learning to make more contact and walk more...I personally don't think it's likely. At least not enough to be a good MLB player. He hits a lot of HR's in the minors because he's in the lineup everyday. I just don't think any MLB team could find a way to justify keeping him in the lineup everyday, with likely having more well rounded options at their disposal. If he cuts down on his k% and goes from currently atrocious to just really bad, and learns to walk at a 10% clip, he could be really useful. But, he really isn't showing any signs that he will do that, and he is only in AA. Just cutting the K's by 10% in the minors still makes him a severely flawed MLB hopeful. I think he is fun to follow and is a good side story, but not all that confident that he serves much use to the big league club at any point, other than a pinch hitter and occasional DH. I haven't watched him and do not know if the problem is his swing, pitch recognition, work ethic, or other factors...so I am keeping hope alive that he is fixable to some degree. One thing that caught my attention was reading an article about Joey Gallo today on Fangraphs, where he states that the minor league strike zone is much bigger than the MLB strike zone. Not sure how accurate that is, but that seems like it might at least benefit power hitters a little bit once they reach the majors, if they are able to recognize and take advantage of it. Anyway, I am cheering for him to make it and think that power would be fun to watch. I am just being a realist, not a pessimist in regards to his future chances (seems like realism is not allowed at this site if it doesn't paint everything as best case scenario, like Danny Santana's previous or current Twins success not likely to last.) I wonder how close he is to Buxton and Sano, and if they have or can help him? Further on that note, any word how tight any of those three are to each other?

You very well might be right, but it sure seems that in the current MLB game, that guys with high velocity and stuff tend to translate those numbers better into the majors, and sometimes even improve them. As where slower nibblers seem to have better minor league ERA's, but that those numbers do not follow them to the majors as often. I am not sure why this is completely to be honest. But, I am guessing that guys with high velocity and stuff maybe do better with the the smarter veterans who do not have the same bat speed as they used to, since they will have to make their decisions and start their swings earlier, yet can still exploit the swing happy younger guys. Where on the other hand slower velocity guys now face smarter veterans who can catch up to their stuff, and the younger bat speed guys can tee off when they actually make contact. Just one guess at it. The Milone's of the world look great in the minors, but their stuff doesn't play up. Where the McCullerrs of the world seem to maintain similar effectiveness when called upon. Yes, they might be more volatile and likely to have implosion outings where they don't make it out of the 4th inning due to pitch counts, but they also have more gems that balance it out. Where nibblers seem to consistently give you you 5-7 innings, but give up 3-5 runs each outing. They can't win you the games that the bats aren't alive. This isn't to say that nibblers never succeed in the majors and that high velocity and stuff guys always do. that is obvious. But, in aggregate I would say that the trend seems to be more clear that you can get away with not having major league control to the standards of the past, as long as you throw heat and have at least one dominant breaking ball, and even more so if you have a change to mix in with it. And the days of waiting for pitching prospects to be fully polished to bring up, seems to be wasting their best years in the minors and one bullet closer to TJ. Having velocity alone won't do it, as it appears that the only high velocity young guys that are showing success are the ones that also have one dominant breaking ball to go along with it. Nibblers can be effective of course, but it seems as though they need to either rely on breaking and off-speed pitches much more than normal, and or, have a home ballpark and defense that suites masks their shortcomings and that compliments their tendencies. There is no one way to skin a cat, but higher velocity along with a plus breaking ball seem like a formula that is currently playing well in the MLB, regardless of polish. It seems adding a good change and control just pushes these guys from good to great. Rodin is having good success due to a dominant slider and great velocity, but the control and lack of a change keep him from going really deep into games, but that isn't that bad if your pen has to protect a 3-1 lead for 3 innings or so. On the other hand Eduardo Rodriguez has shown velocity, good breaking stuff, a good change, and control...leading to being great, instead of merely good thus far, and allowing him to pitch deeper into games. Does that mean I am not a fan of pitchers that find a way to succeed despite lack of velocity? No, in fact I root for them even more, since I like to cheer for underdogs/outliers. I am short, and you would be hard pressed to find short dudes who don't love underdogs. I love Gibson and he is my second favorite pitcher to root for after May. I would love to put together a blog about this in greater detail, but I am just not smart enough to write such an article, nor do I have the self-esteem to handle the criticism, lol.

The peak velocity comment is not that ridiculous. It does appear that high velocity pitchers of recent times lose their velocity over time, and that often times are less effective with the loss in velocity. You want to get these types up as early as possible, since velocity and stuff can often makeup for polish. If you keep those types in the minors until they are polished, you get them when they are less nasty and closer to blowing out their arms. This is something I have definitely noticed the past few years. Lance McCullers seems like a current example of "just bring him up and let his stuff play." Don't meddle too long with these guys. Meyer was probably ready to be up all of last year, but looks as though he has hit the stage of losing a touch of his stuff and velocity. If you target velocity, you rush them up, since they will likely be washed up or post-TJ by the time they hit free agency anyway.

Unfortunately ABW is the wrong kind of TTO guy. instead of being a useful Three-True-Outcome guy, he is all or nothing Two-True-Outcomes guy, since he does not walk. He thinks "walks are for wimps" apparently. Jason Castro, Marlon Byrd,Ian Desmond,Marcell Ozun, Nick Castellanos are 2014 MLB batting profiles with similar comps, but none of them are striking out in the majors as much as ABW is in AA even. Starling Marte, Luis Valbuena, Evan Gattis, Ryan Howard are 2015 examples of 2015 batting profile comps of guys who only K or HR. All of these names have very low OBP's, but some have decent name recognition and have have performed better in the past. Again, none of the names listed posted worse K%'s than what ABW currently is putting up in AA though. They are all 22-27%ish. Not 33%. Mark Trumbo seems like a best case scenario....IF, he dramatically cut his K% down. There just aren't a lot of examples of guys that succeed in the majors with high k%'s, but don't take walks. If he doesn't learn to walk, he likely won't ever be a useful MLB player. We all need to tame our expectations for ABW, as he at the moment is just a fun guy to follow in the box score to see if he homered, but I don't see him succeeding in the majors unless he dramatically cuts down on his K% or learns to take a pitch from time to time. Most players stay the same type of batter that they have shown, with only minor changes over time. I admit that I check to see if he has homered daily though.

Appreciate the article. We here a TD tend to be pretentious and snarky, so thanks for sharing your thoughts. tobi, I lov Bux and hope to see him soon. But, this year is really all that matters. Correa had the same rust excuse as Buxton, but performed from the get go. He has answered the call. That does not mean that Buxton will not be as good or better, but he certainly hasn't been thus far. Correa has also played excellent defense at SS and been a terror on the base paths himself. Buxton might be better on the base baths, but Correa is really good in that regard. I think they are both going to be great, but Buxton is clearly behind Correa in most regards with that bat, and Correa is pretty dang good with the glove and wheels. It will be fun to watch how these two turn out. Correa is just succeeding faster. Kind of like Trout and Harper being tied to each other, but Harper didn't live up to the expectations that Trout was setting at first; now look at Harper. The good news, is that we don't need to feel rushed to add Buxton, right now at least. The one thing that he would for certain add to the MLB team is speed and defense in CF, which we are currently excelling at with Hicks. Yes, sliding Hicks over and adding Buxton would be even better, but I think we wait at least another month, unless there is an injury or Hicks or Rosario fall off completely. I think Buxton could use a promotion to AAA first and to have his focus be on his approach. The lack of guys in the organization with a good k/bb ratio scares me. We need Buxton to be a hight OBP guy with his speed.

Hope the Twins focus on high upside guys that have either fallen due to injury, size, performance, or signing concerns. I only feel this way because we actually have a decent system at the moment, so swinging and missing isn't as detrimental than otherwise would be, and the upside is pretty self explanatory. I guess you could say they have gone that route with their fist two picks already, so I hope it continues. I do think Jay brings a lot of questions and concerns, but I still like the pick, even if he flames out as a starter while sitting in the low 90's. If he does translate as a starter and is able to only lose a tick of velocity, it will have been worth the risk.