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Everything posted by ShouldaCouldaWoulda
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This just gives me a feeling that the team does not plan on making any meaningful changes at catcher in the offseason.
- 30 replies
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- adam brett walker
- nick burdi
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I am just excited that our prized relievers Meyer, Burdi, and Jay have all had great months, after struggling most of the year. Good to see. Meyer could be a nice arm for us in September.
- 2 replies
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- shannon wilkerson
- miguel gonzalez
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I PERSONALLY hope that the Twins bring up Vargas in September. I also would like to see him starting at DH vs RHP's at least 50% of the time, while sitting Plouffe, and moving Sano to 3B. The more smart platooning we start to do the better. It will be interesting to see how many OF's are up in September, and how appropriately they will all be platooned and placed in the lineup. Lineups should not look the same vs RHP's and LHP's. On Varas though, I think he hits way too many ground balls, which will make the MLB shift his nightmare. Maybe he isn't getting shifted as much in the minors, but in the majors, he is a shift casualty.
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I did't mean to imply that the Twins are naive, but only that believing that service time is not the greatest variable in all of this is naive. And, of course there are other variables. The teams like the Rays and A's that are not afraid to bring up young pitching (when their stuff and velocity is still their best) are also the teams that flip these guys for future assets, rather than resign them. They view young pitchers pretty much equivalent as NFL teams now view RB's. Use them up when they are young, and are most physically gifted, but don't waste money on the declining and injury years. The Twins only really traded Garza young, the other pitchers were traded due to selling low.
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I DO think the Twins believe he is ready to help the MLB team, and if they don't think that...well, there needs to be house cleaning. I can't count how many nationally respected writers have scratched their heads as to why he's still in the minors, while the Twins are so close to winning that final wild card spot. I think I have read two comments about it today already. I don't know what the right answer is, to be honest. The only reason I would want him up for is if we seriously feel we can capture that final wild card spot. Is that risk of bringing him up and not making it, while starting his clock, worth the benefits of making the wild card game? Heck, he'd probably be the only guy who'd give us chance in said wild card play in game. My guess is that he either is up next week, or is shut down in the next few weeks. The Twins have to be well aware of the outcry their would be if they just missed out on the playoffs, with Berrios dominating for more starts. But, they can give themselves an "out" by shutting him down, so that they can't make it about whether or not he was ready, or the obvious criticism about service time. I really don't think this is about a 40 man roster spot to protect easily replaceable guys, or whether he is ready. This is about service time, and service time alone. Any other speculation is pretty naive. And, I also understand that is likely a good big picture move. But, if they are serious about the playoffs, there is absolutely no excuse not to bring him up YESTERDAY. If they are not serious, do not bring up, and shut him down soon, so they can have an excuse to keep him back down for a few starts next season to delay his clock. They are making this hard on themselves, but they need to make a decision one way or another after his next start.
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Jepsen's Changeup and it's Implications on Twins analytics
ShouldaCouldaWoulda commented on Secondary User's blog entry in Twin's Organizational News
Love the increased use of the changeup, but if I had to choose my best non fastball pitch, I'd want it to be a nasty curve or slider. Using the change primarily against opposite hand hitters, and the breaking ball against both. I liked the Jepsen trade, and think he will be a nice add for the rest of this year and next. I have a feeling the FO are going to overcompensate, and make dang sure our bullpen is lights out next year. I think that means May likely stays in the pen, and Meyer continuing to be hope and a prayer as another key piece next year. A improved Meyer, along with May, Jepsen, and Perkins; that could be a great bullpen. Of course that is only if May, Jepsen, and Perkens all pitch as well as this year or greater. However, odds are at least one struggles next year with either loss of velocity, injury, bad luck, or losing command. It just happens with pitchers overnight, and we have to assume that this will happen to at least rotation arm and at least one bullpen arm on any given team. This flip side is that you sometimes find someone else who has an improved season for whatever reason. Heck, a guy like Wimmers can come along and be lights out for you out of nowhere. I mean, before last night Wimmers had been dominant since the moment he was placed in the bullpen. He even was having a great outing last night, until it fell apart. Just an example. I digress...I like Jepsen, and his changeup;) -
I watched all the condensed games since May's start, and honestly, most of the hits are on pitches thrown exactly where they were called for. Often its some sort of fastball or changeup in a very hittable location. Not many breaking balls being called for, and not many asked for outside of the zone.
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I know that Suzuki gets hammered on here for his bat and poor framing. However, I have been watching where he sets up and where our pitchers throw. It sure seems that when I have been watching lately, that our pitchers are getting pounded, but they are actually throwing right where Suzuki is asking for it. Is it possible that Suzuki or the Twins are doing a really bad job of pitch selections and placements? Been the case most of tonight and last week, and I have been watching hard. There have been some missed locations, but mostly when we get hit, its right where he asks for it.
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Not sure how much this has been discussed on here lately, but Nunez has really impressed me with his defense this year, especially going to his right and getting rid of the ball. The stats back this up. He also is hitting RHP's well. Makes a good platoon split with Escobar, as he has hit LHP's well, but not RHP's.
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Article: Passing The Torch
ShouldaCouldaWoulda replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think that it would only be to Buxtons overall benefit to be in the majors as long as possible to end this season, even if he doesn't start next season in the majors. He needs to know what its like at that level, and then let it marinade over the offseason. -
Article: Switching Gears
ShouldaCouldaWoulda replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
THIS season isn't over yet.- 75 replies
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- mike pelfrey
- ervin santana
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Article: Coming Soon: Jose Berrios
ShouldaCouldaWoulda replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I just don't see the Twins calling up Berrios. I think they SHOULD, but gut says they find a reason to keep him down, or a better reason to start someone else. I am not against starting Duffey, like Seth mentioned. I think Berrios is both better, more ready, and deserves it more, but I also know better to think that is the way it has or will be done. Would be at least interesting to see how Duffey responds to the pounding he took in Toronto, and being shipped back and forth. Test his metal, and see what he's made of I guess. Just wish he was sitting closer to 93ph than 92. Anyone know where he was "sitting" when he was in the bullpen? -
Article: The Bullying Typist
ShouldaCouldaWoulda replied to Axel Kohagen's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There is a lot of grey area here, and subject context and content matter. I am full on board with the no personal attacks, especially that having nothing to do with the topic. I.e., TR "old" comments are personal and attacks, calling him out for the failure of the team in any way one feels is plausible and just...go ahead. Calling Joe out for being a "wimp" is a personal attack, but any sort of complaining about him on the field should be fair game. Attacking character, appearance, intelligence, etc is just mean. However, again in context. Calling a player out for being out of shape, when it might effect his and team play is fair, but only when applied to his ability to play. Calling TR out TR, Moliter, or a player out for a "dumb" move/decision/play is fine, but not calling the person actually an intellectual pejorative. Discussing and listing things we are upset about when it comes to team rosters or a players performance are kind of the meat of topics when discussing important topics. It should be expected, and the more knowledge and honest fans are going to be giving positives where they are due and negatives where they are due. TR deserves the criticism he is getting right now for the roster, but the dude also deserves a lot of credit for where we are...and he's received both. Same with players, and their performance. People do not come to discuss things that they are not passionate about, and passion usually produces both optimism and criticism, and often both at the same time. People do not come here to read and discuss Twins Kool Aid content alone. Look, we are all Twins fans and thats why we're all here. We root for this team and people on the team. Calling TR out for several missteps of the roster lately, does not mean he is not liked or has done a good job. Saying we want Robinson or Boyer off of this roster like yesterday, is not an insult or bullying. They are by all means probably great guys that we only wish the best to, just not on our lineup. That isn't bullying. That is honesty. Writing that on a persons social media account IS bullying, but discussing their play in a content specific forum is not. They should be going out looking for our comments about them, and I doubt they do. When things get negative, is it "not optimistic" or constructive "criticism", or is it just hot air non relevant crap negativity? The first two are fine and interesting to read, but some may choose to get bored with them and move on. Just because one feels sick of hearing about shortcomings or missteps does not mean everyone needs to stop discussing Arcia, Pelfrey, bullpen, or what have you. Those refusing to discuss any criticism can be blamed as being apathetic or ignoring things of importance. And, it can be just as annoying reading comments that are overly positive and inflated, than those that are equally negative criticism. Eye roll my eyes at both, and often of my own thoughts and comments, which I do think about how they are written. Sometimes the optimists can come across as condescending, or passive aggressive, which again I am probably guilty of. Point being, that content specific and relevant criticism is why many, if not most are here for, along with the positive end. No one is here to discuss the mundane. In bad times there will be more players and staff being criticized and in good times, praised. Nature of the beast. I love the Twins, Joe, TR, Moliter, Arcia, etc, yet I feel just fine criticizing baseball specific topics about them here, without feeling like a bully. Heck I'd blush like child to spend 5 minutes with any Twin, whether Boyer/Robinson or Sano/Berrios. -
It seems that the Twins have been cursed when it comes to Mauer. Seems like we "didn't get enough of a healthy Mauer in the lineup" during his productive years, while we are "getting too much of a healthy Mare in the lineup." Guy can't stay in the lineup during productive years, while he stays healthy in his unproductive yeas. Seriously Joe, you choose NOW to stay healthy?! Because we all know the only way he is being pulled form the lineup is injury, which I will assume will be bound to happen sooner or later I guess. Is an injured more valuable to the club in than an healthy Mauer? Would never wish any harm on any person, so I am not "hoping" this happens, simply that it is then only way he won't be in our lineup.
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Some Fangraphs articles on Hughes, for some context. The first link is from June and talks about this year, while the last two are from December. Nice reads. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/both-sides-of-the-phil-hughes-argument/ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/twins-reward-the-phil-hughes-breakthrough/ http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/regarding-phil-hughes-and-2014/
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I agree and disagree with this at the same time, and it is more of a, "what else could/should we have done?" I too liked all 3 of those signings at the time of them. I never at any point liked the Pelfrey singing first or second time. However, I also never thought that any of those signing gave us a top #1-2 type of starter, and in fact I personally felt they were all #4-5 starters, which is probably true if you look at their past performances and future projections. Now, I also felt like they ALL were upgrades from what we were throwing out there in previous years, so I felt they absolutely improved this team, and they by in large have done that for the most part, until recently. I did not think any of them were the type of pitchers that could lead us to the postseason, or give us a chance if we somehow snuck in to the postseason. I thought this current staff makeup was decent, but very flawed, and more of a lower-middle of the pack type of rotation, and thats probably what their true level is. Not good, but not this bad.
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Well, I was vey much thinking about this last night, while my toddler was headbutting me and kicking me in the ribs at midnight. Seems like the Twins play is keeping him up at nights too, but that is rant for some different forum. Part of the problem is simply the "type" of pitchers we have in our rotation, and their true talent levels. If you look at all of the different projection systems out there, they all aren't very high on any of our guys. Past performance only has Hughes as successful last year, and Santana for stretches a few years removed. NONE of them have sported good K/9 rates anytime recently. We don't miss bats, and I feel part of that is the talent they don't possess, and has to be part of team philosophy, and the way games are being called behind the plate. I would like to get our catchers comments about what they have or haven't been doing different since the break. I would like see our overall heat maps since the break, and pitch values of the different types of pitches since the break? Basically, "what" AND "where" are we getting pounded as a staff? The bullpen is a different story, well not really, but first things first, as the bullpen really isn't an issue if game is already over once they are in.

