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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    I don't really understand the aversion to spending the Pohlad's money. I don't think their budget is strained, and there won't be any new money spent on SP or the lineup this next year. So who cares about a few extra bucks spent on the bullpen?
  2. Taildragger8791
    The like didn't show up until after I got the reply, my bad. It's entirely possible, he's just got a big uphill battle starting this next year to make it work. He's going to get plenty of opportunity to try. The difference is he's gone from someone we hoped to be comfortable slotting into future rotations to someone that we need to ready a backup plan for, which certainly complicates things for the 2018+ teams.
  3. Taildragger8791
    I was being cheeky, and I assumed you were too. I just don't see the value in comparing to all-time greats who were extremely exceptional at how they succeeded. Tons of pitchers have better raw stuff and strikeout rates than Maddux that wash out of baseball every year because they don't figure out the finer points required to have actual success. Nobody ever advocated to cut him so I don't get point of that snark either. It's entirely reasonable to have doubts about a prospect while supporting him.
  4. Taildragger8791
    And worse BB/9, H/9, BB/K, and way less innings per start.
  5. Taildragger8791
    Berrios and Gonsalves are the only pitchers in that list that are intriguing to me for next year. May, Duffey, Gibson, Stewart, and Mejia are lottery tickets to even be serviceable. We're going to go through a lot of pain next year while we figure out who can play but hopefully it'll set up a somewhat established rotation and bullpen for 2018. Jay needs another full year of development and building innings, but he has real promise with his stuff. Looking forward to seeing how him and Thorpe recover from their injuries and develop next year.
  6. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if being 21 is an excuse for having a track record of low strikeout rates. Strikeouts at those lower levels are achievable largely on stuff alone. By far his best K rate above rookie ball was 7.6/9 when he repeated high-A this year, and otherwise has rates of 4.6/9 (AA), 5.0 (High A last year), and 6.4 (Low A last year). Those are remarkably low for someone who scouts think has such good stuff, so I don't know what to make of him. Is it sustainable to rely on inducing poor contact against major league hitters? The Gibson/Pelfrey comps make sense but those guys still had managed decent strikeout rates in the minors. How many MLB pitchers thrive with a K/9 below 6.0?
  7. Taildragger8791
    Again, I basically agree. I'd rather dump Santiago and his salary to open up a spot. If some team offers up a promising young starter then of course I trade Santana. But I don't think there's a logjam preventing those guys from coming up next year. Gonsalves won't be up until mid-season most likely, by which point there will be a spot for him. Jay and Stewart might be looking for room in the second half and by then another 1 or 2 guys will have pitched themselves out of a job or be hurt. If not, then that means the rotation is doing pretty well and don't need to be replaced anyways. But most likely two out of Mejia/Gibson/May will be replaceable before the end of the year.
  8. Taildragger8791
    I agree on Dozier, if there's good young pitching or catching talent to be had in a return. I guess I agree on Santana too but I don't see the market for him. Age/contract are going to work against him. Rather than get a mediocre player that's going to clog up a spot I'd rather let him continue to lead by example for the young pitchers, and provide a little stability so the bullpen can maybe get a break every 5 days.
  9. Taildragger8791
    That sounds like a big assumption you made there. Just to provide some context, even if that did shave off half a run it would only take our starting rotation from the worst ERA in baseball (5.48) to the second worst in baseball. They would need to shave off another half a run to get just outside of the bottom third in baseball, and then almost another half a run to get well into the top ten. That's how far we have to go. And with all the work there is to do breaking in young pitchers and fixing our veteran ones there's little chance they will be significantly better than Nolasco, Milone, Duffey, or Dean were this year.
  10. Taildragger8791
    Realistically, there aren't any options to turn over this rotation in one year other than getting Sandy Alderson liquored up at winter meetings and tricking him into trading Syndergaard and deGrom for Plouffe and Duffey. So we're going to just have to suck it up and relive this season again next year while we wait on options to develop, and yes it's going to be a bunch of try-outs and burnouts and 95+ losses. I doubt you'd get more back from trading Santana than you'll get from playing him. He provides some stability and mentorship to the other pitchers. I don't want to sell the farm for veterans. Dozier is the only chance to get some talent back but the 2B trade market may be weak with how strong that position has been this year, and it's rare for the Twins to sell high on a player, so I don't expect anything to happen. The only chance to improve this junk rotation is to swap out the coaching, because that's the biggest common thread between so many sub-par performances. You can't fire every pitcher on the team, especially when there is clearly some talent there. With that, then the hope is that next season provides clarity on these things going into 2018 on how to build a better rotation: Which Gibson is real, 2015 or 2016? I have my doubts but there isn't anyone pushing him out at this point so you have to let him keep trying, even if it hurts to watch.I'm not crazy about Santiago but he'll eat innings...maybe. If the money could be reallocated more effectively I'd be for cutting him though. I worry he's going to underperform and eat the money instead of innings like almost every other pitcher we've run through here. Whether that's due to coaching, defense, or a warlock's curse I don't know yet.Can Berrios make the leap?Can May start and hold up?Give Mejia a long tryout to see what we have thereAt mid-season, audition Gonsalves and later on Stewart to see what they look likeIf Jay has a big year at AA I'd be okay with giving him a little time later in the year, maybe out of the bullpen to startAlso: Put Duffey in the pen and let his two good pitches play upHughes also stays in the pen all year unless he suddenly goes "Rookie of the Year" and starts throwing fire. He's likely done as a starter.
  11. Taildragger8791
    I noticed that as well. The wrist is bent more and the hand cups around the ball more. It adds up to a noticeable difference rather than just looking for the extended pinky.
  12. Taildragger8791
    It seems tough to believe that you don't have to catch much to learn how to play catcher. You can practice and chat with coaches all you like but there's little replacement for live reps, and experiencing the game situations and pressures. Garver is going to finish the year with maybe 60 games above A ball at one of the toughest defensive positions, where he was already raw at to begin with. How is it that he's supposedly ready to handle the big league staff with so little advanced-level experience? Unless he made huge progress he's going to need another year just to accrue maybe a typical full season's worth of starts above A ball. I don't know what the reasons are for not getting him more starts, but it's hard to buy that he's going to be ready for the majors until he gets more game time behind the dish.
  13. Taildragger8791
    ERA alone in the minors doesn't mean much. K's, BB's, efficiency, and in-person scouting tell a much better story. Lots of pitchers get by on fringy stuff that they know how to get minor leaguers out with, especially in A ball, but then it doesn't translate to the majors. To this point he's performed like a cross between Gibson and Blackburn and hasn't excelled at anything, but he hasn't failed or stagnated either. He's young, I just don't see how you can expect major growth at this point. And without major growth he doesn't elevate the rotation or becomes more than a fringe #5 guy. If I'm planning a rotation roadmap for the next two years I'm certainly not reserving a spot for him. If something changes then they can always work him in somewhere later.
  14. Taildragger8791
    Whether or not it's "putrid", a pitcher who gets shelled every other outing is still tough to live with. He struggles to get through 5-6 innings almost every start, even in those 0-3 run games. He puts piles of guys on base and puts his team on their heels the whole time, requiring them to get to every ground ball in order to limit the damage. He rarely has a clean game where you can count on him to eat innings and take pressure off the defense and offense. I'd still offer him arbitration because he won't be expensive and this rotation is going to be warmed over dog doo doo next year anyways. But that doesn't mean I'm content with his performance, and I'd still be looking to replace him ASAP. I also sure as heck wouldn't let him block a prospect that forces their way into the rotation next year. The offense and bullpen are slowly getting better and it's time to raise the bar for expectations from all 5 starters before we squander too many more seasons.
  15. Taildragger8791
    You don't see how I can draw the conclusion that the Thins have drafted terribly? I didn't think that was a secret. I understand once players are in the system they all go through the same development channels. All I said is the Twins have somehow done ok lately at identifying and signing international talent, which is in contrast to their performance in the draft. I don't know if they're bringing in different types of players that fare better in their system, or they just got lucky on one side and unlucky on the other. You really think it's an unfair standard to ask for an average of 1-2 quality major leaguers out of the draft every 2-3 years? Because right now it's more like every 4-5. The Twins can't outspend their poor drafting like the Yankees, so they have to be better than league average at it.
  16. Taildragger8791
    Sano and Kepler were international signees, not draft picks. For some reason the Twins seem to do okay at signing international talent and are abysmal at selecting and developing from the draft. I don't know what to draw from that but a team like the Twins will never compete without doing well at both.
  17. Taildragger8791
    A number of pitching prospects look promising for a change, but after the number of faceplants we've witnessed I can't put too much faith in even dominant MiLB results right now. Especially when the Twins have been so poor at drafting/developing starters for decades. Until it happens I won't assume anything more than #4/#5 production and I'd still be looking to add a frontline starter from outside the organization for next year, if possible. The offense and bullpen have an opportunity to be league average or better next year and I'd rather not squander another season with a trainwreck rotation that's waiting on talent or is forcing unproductive prospects into it. Make guys force their way into the rotation with excellence and let's go win some games. If they're as good as people say they'll make it and we'll have an embarrassment of riches for a change. I know that may be an unrealistic fan's perspective but I'm tired of failed expectations and can't be sold on promise anymore.
  18. Taildragger8791
    Is there someone that can elaborate on what aspect of his defense is so deficient? I guess I haven't seen enough of him out there to notice more than a couple bad plays. He's not the fastest but he doesn't look like he's pulling a sled either. Considerably better than Delmon Young looking like he's pinching a penny between his but cheeks as he waddles. Does he take bad routes or misjudge balls? He seems to catch what he gets to and the arm looks passable. It's confusing how he could be rated so poorly when he looks to have average athleticism and baseball smarts.
  19. Taildragger8791
    Not at all, it's probably much better. Against lefties in the minors this year he was .500/.545/.850. He's clearly HOF against southpaws. Don't mind that it was only 20 AB. I kid. No I don't, but I don't think it's terribly far off other than the power may be inflated. He does have a history of hitting well against lefties, especially looking at his minor league splits over the years. Why not ride it out and see if he can keep it up? He isn't blocking anyone this year. It wouldn't work out logistically, but he'd platoon well with Palka if they find themselves on a roster together. Palka does quite a bit better against righties over his career, especially in the power department.
  20. Taildragger8791
    If you have a player hitting .333/.422/.538 I don't think you give half a rip about their defense as long as it isn't a total horror show. We experienced many years of Willingham and Delmon for less than that.
  21. Taildragger8791
    I'd still rather prioritize the guy that can be league average all around over the guy that's elite defensively and a black hole offensively.
  22. Taildragger8791
    Turner's weakness is offense, not defense. If the goal is to develop everyone then it makes sense to prioritize Garver playing catcher while getting Turner as many at bats as you can. Neither one will make it if they don't progress on the weaker half of their games.
  23. Taildragger8791
    This is what I'm hoping for as well. We know JRM can work behind the dish so hopefully Garver can take a bigger share of the starts there (assuming health is not the issue), and JRM can find at bats elsewhere on those days. He has to show he can be the #1 guy because I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling about JRM bouncing back and holding down the spot next year. We may need him to play 60%-70% of games at some point next year unless Suzuki is extended. Until he does it I don't see how you can count on it.
  24. Taildragger8791
    I was figuring it was a difference of more like 35 games, if you're talking about getting 40% vs 65% of the starts over 137 regular season games. Not the end of the world, but that doesn't seem insignificant for developing at a skill position.
  25. Taildragger8791
    That's unfortunate but it makes sense. I saw he was still in the lineup most days and his bat is coming along. I just worry his ability to play the catcher position isn't advancing at the same pace and will ultimately hold him back. He doesn't hit enough right now for a DH/1B type so I'm just trying to figure out what a reasonable timeline is for him.
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